Arizona Diamondbacks Ongoing Thread

[AZ Sun]

I can see doing something stupid like trading Parra and signing Choo, who I think is terribly overrated.

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Johnson is a one year wonder with the avg, and has always been a terrible hitter. Upton... lol. I think Prado can hit .300 this year along with Goldburger.

Upton will figure it out, but would of never developed it takes guys time to understand how to be consistant......... I love Prado but he was streaky last year......... Obviously hes been consistant through out his career but was really hot n cold last year. I think Johnson will be 280 avg and above for the rest of his career horrible fielder though.

 

[AZ Sun]

Johnson has a always been a terrible fielder, is what I meant to say. He's a solid hitter but don't expect him to hit .320 this year.

 

[Villain]

All of you guys talking about protection for Goldy is making me worry about you.

Baseball Prospectus | Baseball ProGUESTus: Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 1

TOPIC #1: Lineups

Subtopic: Protection

Peter Hood asks:

It appears to be one of the axioms of Sabermetrics that "lineup protection" is a myth since studies have consistently been unable to establish its existence. And yet, ancedotal evidence (mainly from players I suspect)seems to suggest that that it does exist. I'm wondering if the sabermetric problem is possibly one of specification? Lineup protection (to me at least) is something that is critical only infrequently, existing primarily in key situations and, as a consequence, may be buried under the noise of routine ABs.

This is a sabermetric myth.

There are two issues to consider:

Do players (pitchers and/or batters) behave differently based on who is on deck?
Is the overall impact better or worse?
In The Book, we looked at this topic. Luckily for you, it was excerpted a few years back at The Hardball Times (please read that). The first takeaway is that yes, definitely the players respond differently. And really, when you are talking about human beings in different situations, the expectation is that they should respond differently. After all, they are not automatons, are they? And they respond on the surface as you'd expect: the pitcher is avoiding the unprotected batter, which results in more walks (and more strikeouts).

So, score a big one for conventional wisdom.

But, even though there is a different response pattern by the players involved, that does not by itself mean that it favors one side or the other. Indeed, the result of our study shows that when it comes to putting the ball in play, there was no significant impact.

So, score a wake-up call for conventional wisdom.

Pitching Around Batters

The Book Says: If a pitcher is trying to avoid pitching to a hitter, the hitter is significantly more likely to draw a walk, and moderately more likely to strike out. Specifically, a good, unprotected hitter in a good intentional walk situation is about 25% more likely to walk than the same hitter in a bad intentional walk situation, as well as about 10% more likely to strike out. Even an average hitter, with an average hitter on deck, is 20% more likely to draw the walk if the situation is a common one for intentional walks, and about 5% more likely to strike out. However, if the ball is hit into play, the pitcher's approach (pitching to him, versus pitching around him) has no significant effect on the hitter's statistics.

The Protection Externality: It Doesn?t Exist

The results lead us to not only reject the protection hypothesis, but also we find evidence that good on-deck hitters actually harm the hit and power probabilities of the current batter. This is consistent with the effort hypothesis. However, the magnitude of the spillover is tiny and for all practical purposes the effect is zero. Even very good (bad) hitters have only a very small impact on the batters who precede them.

Point: Adding Trumbo shouldn't make Goldy any better.

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Johnson has a always been a terrible fielder, is what I meant to say. He's a solid hitter but don't expect him to hit .320 this year.

Yea...... Lets see what Prado does this year. If Upton breaks through this year which I could see especially with his comfort in Atlanta I know he would of never developed here what kind of gm calls a player a "enigma" I hated KT then, and I hate him now hes a gunner and puts alot of pressure on players with his constant tinkering.........

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Its not really protection we just want another homerun hitter that can bring us back in ball games with a crack of the bat.

 

[The Derski]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0H86YQsfZM]Mark Trumbo 2013 Home Runs Through 8/2/2013 - YouTube[/ame]

 

[The Derski]

Trumbo is only 27 too.

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Trumbo is only 27 too.

Thats your first year of your prime years. I would love more speed on the bases, Didi please breakout!

 

[AZ Sun]

Sure "protection" might be a myth, but now that we have another power hitter in the lineup we can get production from another guy and not put so much pressure on Goldy. In extra inning games last year he would get IW more often than not because opposing teams knew that there was no other threat to go yard. Now we have Trumbo, who isn't Miguel Cabrera but a dangerous power hitter who should only thrive playing 81 games at Chase Field.

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

This is honnestly just a better version of Jason Kubel. Just adding a much needed power hitter to the lineup.

 

[Jonas_steven]

I really wish we could have kept eaton instead of pollack but I am willing to live with this trade as long as trumbo can keep his OBP at LEAST above .300. Me and my buddy have a running joke since the Yankees last championship that joba chamberlain is responsible for anything bad in this world. I would literally scream if we sign that fucker after getting rid of that ho-bag Heath bell!

 

[CatsTopPac]

Saw you guys got Trumbo and I started a thread, buuuuuuuuuut, it looks like you guys already knew that...

Good bat, I think he's definitely what you need to protect Goldy. Still need some arms for the plethora of extra IFs you guys have. Good on Davis Mike for calling that months ago.

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Trumbo is only 27 too.

Saw you guys got Trumbo and I started a thread, buuuuuuuuuut, it looks like you guys already knew that...

Good bat, I think he's definitely what you need to protect Goldy. Still need some arms for the plethora of extra IFs you guys have. Good on Davis Mike for calling that months ago.

Goldy doesnt need "protection" he is the clutchest hitter in the bigs and has ice water in his veins, we just needed to add another homerun hitter a more consistant version of Jason Kubel except much better but Eaton? Our speed on the bases our leadoff hitter! We just need more pop in the lineup but why trade Eaton!

 

[CatsTopPac]

Goldy doesnt need "protection" he is the clutchest hitter in the bigs and has ice water in his veins, we just needed to add another homerun hitter a more consistant version of Jason Kubel except much better but Eaton? Our speed on the bases our leadoff hitter! We just need more pop in the lineup.

Protection is relative. Pitchers kew that all they really had to do was key on Goldy. So getting anyone in there who is a legitimate threat with the bat just means that he has some room. It's obviously something that everyone knew the DBacks needed: another solid bat in the middle of the line-up. They got that with Trumbo.

Now, it's certainly debatable if he'll be good in the OF for them, and his BA was pretty bad. but he did bat almost .270 in 2012. Plus, he played all but 3 games last year, so he'll be a workhorse. Not the perfect fit, but depending on how much they paid for him, it could be a nice move.

It also looks like AZ is banking on Didi to carry that leadoff role. Bottomline is that you needed a strong bat, and the corner OFs are hitting positions. So, unless they went out and got a nice 3B, getting a corner OF was what needed to happen. Parra looks pretty comfortable in RF, so that leaves LF. Maybe Parra could switch to CF, and maybe he could bat leadoff. But it was probably assumed that your new bat was going to be a corner OF.

 

[Villain]

This is honnestly just a better version of Jason Kubel. Just adding a much needed power hitter to the lineup.

Actually, it's nothing like that. Kubel and Trumbo don't really compare to each other at all. The only thing they have in common is crappy defense in the outfield.

Since I'm a Dodger fan and I know you guys won't put any stock into my opinions, here's a reaction write-up for the lead DBacks blogger from SBNation:

The Trumbo deal: will no-one think of the children? - AZ Snake Pit

Problem 1: addressing a non-existent problem

A lack of home-runs are not necessarily an issue. The National League champion Cardinals hit fewer home-runs than the Diamondbacks, and managed to survive. The Dodgers had only eight more. Conversely, second in the National League were the Cubs, who had 42 more home-runs than us, and were totally wretched overall. Heck, the 2012 Diamondbacks had 35 more home-runs than this year, but the net result was exactly the same. Overall offense is what matters, and that was an issue for us last season, not home-runs.

Problem 2: not actually fixing the real issue

Sure, Trumbo hit 34 bombs last year, but with a batting average of .234 and an on-base percentage below .300. His OPS for the season was a respectable .747, but for context, A.J. Pollock's with the Diamondbacks was .730. Obviously, there are park adjustments to be made, and there's no doubt Trumbo is a bigger offensive threat than Pollock. But the gap is not as big as you might think, due to Trumbo's solitary dimension: if he hits the ball, it goes a long way. His weaknesses elsewhere counter that significantly, in particular his defense. He has extremely limited outfield experience, and the metrics there suggest he's well below average.

Problem 3: overpaying for the talent

I might have considered a trade of Tyler Skaggs for Trumbo, straight up. Skaggs' stock may have dropped since he was a top prospect, but he's still a 22-year-old with major-league experience, who is now under the Angels' control through the end of 2019. I'm still perplexed by the fact that the team flat-out refused to consider a trade of Skaggs + Cahill for Trumbo, but figured replacing Cahill with five years of Adam Eaton made perfectly sense. But never mind the long term, per Dan Szymborski's ZIPS system, this trade is going to hurt the Diamondbacks this season. For we have:

Skaggs LAA projection - 10-9, 3.81, 158.1 IP, 14 HR, 63 BB, 140 K, 99 ERA+, 1.9 WAR.
Eaton CHW projection - 251/338/348, 1.5 WAR
Trumbo ARI projection - 269/320/514, 35 HR, 112 RBI. -10 in LF, 2.0 WAR.

Even if we discount Skaggs entirely, due to our pitching depth, and the fact that Eaton's projection in Chicago is hurt by the cavernous Cell, simply replacing Eaton with Trumbo gives us an extra one-half of a win. For which we will probably be paying close to ten times the price, Trumbo now being in arbitration, and likely to get about $4.7 million, according to MLB Trade Rumors.

I just don't like the trade. It's giving up future talent for a dubious return; the team just got out from under the contract of a one-dimensional outfielder with poor defense. For them to trade a pair of their leading prospects to acquire another seems almost the very definition of madness: repeating the same thing, over and over, and expecting a different result. But got to love the way Adam Eaton reacted to the news; got to wish him all the best in Chicago.

 

[AZ Sun]

Seriously!! Who is going to hit leadoff now? Parra and Pollock have decent averages but can't draw walks and can't hit same handed pitching. Didi "I forgot my bat at home" Gregorius is no more than a .250 hitter. We don't have any MLB ready prospects that can be plugged into the leadoff spot. And I am afraid of overpaying for a leadoff hitter in free agency.

 

[AZ Sun]

I don't know if I like this trade yet. I liked Eaton and would have rather traded Pollock or Davidson than him.

 

[JahiiCarson_SqodGeneral]

Pollock is as good as hes gonna get. Parra will leadoff unless Didi improved his swing drastically over the off season.........

 

[AZ Sun]

Hopefully we get the Parra that hit .320 for a good portion of last season.