All things offseason

[Niner Outlaw]

Just a 2023 1st rounder alone?

If we were gonna trade him, I think it would be a good gamble considering that their pick will likely be a top 10 yet again.

 

[deep9er]

If we were gonna trade him, I think it would be a good gamble considering that their pick will likely be a top 10 yet again.

Ok

 

[deep9er]

"The 49ers will receive the second of two third-rounders awarded for Mike McDaniel being hired as Dolphins head coach this offseason," wrote Zierlein, "and the third of three third-rounders awarded for losing both Robert Saleh (Jets head coach) and Martin Mayhew (Commanders GM) in 2021. They will also take home a fifth for [D.J.] Jones and a likely seventh-round pick for [Arden] Key, provided he makes the Jaguars -- which is very likely. The departure of [Laken] Tomlinson and addition of [Charvarius] Ward cancel each other out in terms of compensatory-pick eligibility."


I would think DJ Jones would get more than a 5th granted he's an NT, not every down player. No doubt he is very good at NT, but this is more subjective. His Contract was likely low too, which also affects the Comp value.

Anyway, two extra 3rd's and a 5th is big. Next year's draft would be similar to this years, start with our 2nd but then have three 3rds.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

"The 49ers will receive the second of two third-rounders awarded for Mike McDaniel being hired as Dolphins head coach this offseason," wrote Zierlein, "and the third of three third-rounders awarded for losing both Robert Saleh (Jets head coach) and Martin Mayhew (Commanders GM) in 2021. They will also take home a fifth for [D.J.] Jones and a likely seventh-round pick for [Arden] Key, provided he makes the Jaguars -- which is very likely. The departure of [Laken] Tomlinson and addition of [Charvarius] Ward cancel each other out in terms of compensatory-pick eligibility."


I would think DJ Jones would get more than a 5th granted he's an NT, not every down player. No doubt he is very good at NT, but this is more subjective. His Contract was likely low too, which also affects the Comp value.

Anyway, two extra 3rd's and a 5th is big. Next year's draft would be similar to this years, start with our 2nd but then have three 3rds.

Nice to see the comps come down this way. I thought we might've gotten a 4th for DJ Jones, but I'll take a 5th. Having three 3rds and two 5ths will be a big boost for us since we won't have a 1st.

 

[deep9er]

Nice to see the comps come down this way. I thought we might've gotten a 4th for DJ Jones, but I'll take a 5th. Having three 3rds and two 5ths will be a big boost for us since we won't have a 1st.

It would be a small consolation if we finish high this season, making our 1st round pick 'late' again.

 

[deep9er]

The below is reasonable and what i'd think too if not a 49er fan. Trey Lance will go through a learning curve but don't think it'll be long, certainly not all season. I'm not saying he'll be a top NFL QB after 3-4 games, am saying it won't be long before he contributes to winning as much as JG did. Lance will contribute in different ways but he'll add as much as JG after 3-4 games. He starts off against Chicago and Seattle, so we might still get two wins out of the gate.


The San Francisco 49ers came in at No. 9 in ESPN's post-draft power ranking. If you were upset about that underwhelming result, the Bay Area squad's placement in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) isn't going to make you happier. San Francisco came in at No. 24 in the FPI rankings, at 6.1 points worse than the metric of an average NFL team on a neutral field.

Why such a low ranking for a team coming off an NFC title appearance? By comparison, the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers' NFC Championship Game opponent and eventual Super Bowl champions, sit at No. 3. The AFC title game participants, the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, come in at Nos. 4 and 16, respectively.

Much of the 49ers' FPI ranking has to do with the quarterback situation. The analytics backing it is assuming that last year's No. 3 overall pick, Trey Lance, will be the starter. That is the expectation around the league as San Francisco looks to part ways with its starting quarterback of the past four-and-a-half seasons, Jimmy Garoppolo.

Lance over Garoppolo is a hit to the 49ers' FPI ranking, resulting in the team being given a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs.

"And if it is Lance, the model doesn't see how the 49ers could possibly justify a win total of 10 and be considered one of the better teams in the NFC," wrote Seth Walder.

However, before you boycott ESPN, it is worth noting that the FPI ranking, as a rule, penalizes quarterbacks who do not play. Lance started just two games during his rookie season despite the 49ers mortgaging much of its draft future for the young player. He played just 178 total in-game snaps and made just 71 pass attempts. There isn't a large enough sample size of work to properly analyze his play.

"There's upside there, of course, and perhaps he stars in his first season as a starter," Walder continued. "But the mean expectation for Lance can't yet be great.

"So while receiver Deebo Samuel and edge rusher Nick Bosa are superstars, the run defense is strong and Kyle Shanahan is a good coach, it's hard to overcome a relative liability at quarterback. And that's our best guess for Lance at this point."

Where would the 49ers rank with Garoppolo at the helm in 2022? The veteran helped the team reach the NFC Championship Game twice over the past three seasons and owns a career record of 33-14 as a starter.

"They would move up to 13th in the FPI rankings," Walder revealed. "It's a big jump, fueled by the fact that Garoppolo has posted decent QBRs throughout his career -- which is a lot better than what the model assumes the 49ers will get from Lance in 2022 on average."

 

[DurbanPoison2121]

The below is reasonable and what i'd think too if not a 49er fan. Trey Lance will go through a learning curve but don't think it'll be long, certainly not all season. I'm not saying he'll be a top NFL QB after 3-4 games, am saying it won't be long before he contributes to winning as much as JG did. Lance will contribute in different ways but he'll add as much as JG after 3-4 games. He starts off against Chicago and Seattle, so we might still get two wins out of the gate.


The San Francisco 49ers came in at No. 9 in ESPN's post-draft power ranking. If you were upset about that underwhelming result, the Bay Area squad's placement in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) isn't going to make you happier. San Francisco came in at No. 24 in the FPI rankings, at 6.1 points worse than the metric of an average NFL team on a neutral field.

Why such a low ranking for a team coming off an NFC title appearance? By comparison, the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers' NFC Championship Game opponent and eventual Super Bowl champions, sit at No. 3. The AFC title game participants, the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals, come in at Nos. 4 and 16, respectively.

Much of the 49ers' FPI ranking has to do with the quarterback situation. The analytics backing it is assuming that last year's No. 3 overall pick, Trey Lance, will be the starter. That is the expectation around the league as San Francisco looks to part ways with its starting quarterback of the past four-and-a-half seasons, Jimmy Garoppolo.

Lance over Garoppolo is a hit to the 49ers' FPI ranking, resulting in the team being given a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs.

"And if it is Lance, the model doesn't see how the 49ers could possibly justify a win total of 10 and be considered one of the better teams in the NFC," wrote Seth Walder.

However, before you boycott ESPN, it is worth noting that the FPI ranking, as a rule, penalizes quarterbacks who do not play. Lance started just two games during his rookie season despite the 49ers mortgaging much of its draft future for the young player. He played just 178 total in-game snaps and made just 71 pass attempts. There isn't a large enough sample size of work to properly analyze his play.

"There's upside there, of course, and perhaps he stars in his first season as a starter," Walder continued. "But the mean expectation for Lance can't yet be great.

"So while receiver Deebo Samuel and edge rusher Nick Bosa are superstars, the run defense is strong and Kyle Shanahan is a good coach, it's hard to overcome a relative liability at quarterback. And that's our best guess for Lance at this point."

Where would the 49ers rank with Garoppolo at the helm in 2022? The veteran helped the team reach the NFC Championship Game twice over the past three seasons and owns a career record of 33-14 as a starter.

"They would move up to 13th in the FPI rankings," Walder revealed. "It's a big jump, fueled by the fact that Garoppolo has posted decent QBRs throughout his career -- which is a lot better than what the model assumes the 49ers will get from Lance in 2022 on average."

This article can suck a dick. For those of us who have actually watched Lance play in a limited sample size, we know the DIFFERENCE that Lance has provided to the offense. The idea that this offense will take a step back from the pedestrian passing numbers that JG gave us the past few seasons simply based on Lance's lack of playing time? He excelled in protecting the football, as shown by him not throwing an INT in 2019. He's mobile as we saw, which adds a completely different skillset from JG in terms of escapability, not to mention the howitzer on his right shoulder that does what JG dreams of doing in pushing the ball downfield.

I have watched as JG left open WR after open TE after open WR for the last three years. He's not seeing them and simply speaking at this point in his career, he just won't. This is not counting the hospital balls he leads our receiving corp with and the INT (or near INTs) to the LB that he somehow fails to see sitting in coverage. I have a hard time believing that with our OL, our running game/offensive philosophy, and the offensive talent surrounding Lance, that he would be a step back. With the defense where it's at, it is THE optimal situation for a young QB. He's a 2nd year player, so he's not without mistakes, but his abilities in other capacities makes his mistakes minimized in my mind.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

The below is reasonable and what i'd think too if not a 49er fan. Trey Lance will go through a learning curve but don't think it'll be long, certainly not all season. I'm not saying he'll be a top NFL QB after 3-4 games, am saying it won't be long before he contributes to winning as much as JG did. Lance will contribute in different ways but he'll add as much as JG after 3-4 games. He starts off against Chicago and Seattle, so we might still get two wins out of the gate.

It's interesting that the other QBs taken highly last year, Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields all struggled rather badly last year. That bodes well for Lance b/c it'll be hard to do worse (bottom 10 in the league) than them considering we have a much better team than they did.

I agree that there will be a learning curve, but I think it'll be longer than 3-4 games. With lance, I think the offense will be more explosive, but much less consistent. Just like with Jimmy, we'll see the coaches focus on the run, lean heavily on the play action, and try to limit Lance's options on pass plays (simplify the offense).

 

[deep9er]

It's interesting that the other QBs taken highly last year, Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields all struggled rather badly last year. That bodes well for Lance b/c it'll be hard to do worse (bottom 10 in the league) than them considering we have a much better team than they did.

I agree that there will be a learning curve, but I think it'll be longer than 3-4 games. With lance, I think the offense will be more explosive, but much less consistent. Just like with Jimmy, we'll see the coaches focus on the run, lean heavily on the play action, and try to limit Lance's options on pass plays (simplify the offense).

Yes, his learning curve will go on for a while if we're talking one of the top NFL QB's. That takes more game reps than 3-4 games, much more.

But for this season he doesn't need to be a top NFL QB, what he does need to do is contribute to winning as much as JG did. He will and even exceed that as we get to mid-season and on. Put another way, don't think this team will win less than 10 games same as JG last season.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Yes, his learning curve will go on for a while if we're talking one of the top NFL QB's. That takes more game reps than 3-4 games, much more.

But for this season he doesn't need to be a top NFL QB, what he does need to do is contribute to winning as much as JG did. He will and even exceed that as we get to mid-season and on. Put another way, don't think this team will win less than 10 games same as JG last season.

Forget top QB. Hell, I'm talking about him being a middle of the pack, fully functional NFL QB--one that remembers to dump the ball off, doesn't hold it too long, doesn't make the late throw over the middle for the easy pick. I think that will take more than 3-4 games.

The good news for him is that he is on a very talented team (PB WR, PB TE, PB LT, great running game), and the first couple of games look very winnable (Bears, Seahawks).

 

[deep9er]

Forget top QB. Hell, I'm talking about him being a middle of the pack, fully functional NFL QB--one that remembers to dump the ball off, doesn't hold it too long, doesn't make the late throw over the middle for the easy pick. I think that will take more than 3-4 games.

The good news for him is that he is on a very talented team (PB WR, PB TE, PB LT, great running game), and the first couple of games look very winnable (Bears, Seahawks).

IMO he will be middle of the pack, fully functional NFL QB, after 3-4 games. "Fully functional" and "middle of the pack" means NFL average, and Lance will be "NFL average" after 3-4 games. Fans will expect "top NFL QB" but that takes more reps than this season.

The reason any average QB is labeled 'average', is inconsistency. Lance will still make some mistakes same as all NFL average QB's do, but not many mistakes like a pure rookie.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Reports from minicamp have had some nice things to say about Lance's performance.

 

[deep9er]

Reports from minicamp have had some nice things to say about Lance's performance.

Yep, so still think 3-4 games to NFL "average". The good thing is he's surrounded by a good team, not a lousy one that most top rookies fall in with.

Naturally, we fans will expect NFL "elite" from the get go, but thats fans for you. Haaaaaa.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Reports from minicamp have had some nice things to say about Lance's performance.

Good to see, for sure. I try not to get too excited from mini-camps and training camps, but good to hear nonetheless. Can't wait to see preseason games. The eye test is always the best test.

 

[deep9er]

"The ideal outcome for San Francisco is one where Lance shows a significant improvement and dominates his reps as the first-team QB. Improved accuracy and pocket presence in training camp, and having that translate to preseason games, would allow his terrific physical tools to shine."


Yep, Lance has an opening starting this off-season, he'll get the reps afforded the No. 1 QB. Granted its not real game reps, but he needs to show improvement even if not 'significant'. Show enough improvement that other players are "won over" and have confidence in him.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

"The ideal outcome for San Francisco is one where Lance shows a significant improvement and dominates his reps as the first-team QB. Improved accuracy and pocket presence in training camp, and having that translate to preseason games, would allow his terrific physical tools to shine."


Yep, Lance has an opening starting this off-season, he'll get the reps afforded the No. 1 QB. Granted its not real game reps, but he needs to show improvement even if not 'significant'. Show enough improvement that other players are "won over" and have confidence in him.

This could be Lance's last shot in SF. Considering Jimmy is gone and Purdy's performance during the season, Lance's leash is shorter than it was last year. If he can't nail down the starting job while Purdy is rehabbing, he might never get the job back...at least not in SF. And even if Lance shows some improvement, will he get to keep the starting spot when Purdy comes back healthy?

 

[deep9er]

This could be Lance's last shot in SF. Considering Jimmy is gone and Purdy's performance during the season, Lance's leash is shorter than it was last year. If he can't nail down the starting job while Purdy is rehabbing, he might never get the job back...at least not in SF. And even if Lance shows some improvement, will he get to keep the starting spot when Purdy comes back healthy?

It may not be his 'last shot' but its an opening he can seize now. Granted its not live action but still an opening without Purdy taking most of the practice reps. It might not be his last shot because Purdy could get hurt again during the new season.

Either way, as 49er fans we REALLY want Lance to show a lot of improvement and gain confidence of his teammates. We want his value to increase whether he starts Game 1 or not, comes in relief of Purdy or not, or if he's traded after 2023.

 

[deep9er]

Trey Lance has talent. However, tough conditions in the 2022 season opener and three injuries over two seasons have led to inconsistency.

At the same time, you can’t deny how Purdy performed when his number was called. He earned the respect and belief of his teammates with his play.

In Purdy’s five regular season starts the 49ers averaged 33.6 points. The strong play continued in the playoffs as the rookie led San Francisco to 41 points in a win over Seattle. In an NFC Divisional round win the following week against, Purdy showed the ability to grind through a playoff game against a top opponent. He earned the respect and belief of his teammates with his play.

With Purdy set for surgery on the torn UCL in his throwing arm Lance will have the entire offseason program to prove himself and earn the trust of his teammates.

Yes, IF Purdy returns to his same self, it's his job to lose. Shanahan needs to factor in the rest of the team, and the part in bold says its Purdy's job to lose.

Lance CAN show improvement and earn respect but not enough to overtake Purdy. Lance will just need to keep his head in the game and be ready during the season. He can play IF we get a good lead but surely if Purdy is injured. Very very unfortunate for Lance but we should look at it as Purdy is a huge positive, not Lance is a negative.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

A more complex elbow surgery could extend his 6 month rehab time. Looks like the doctor won't really know what he's going to do until he cuts Purdy's arm open and takes a look.

Brock Purdy says doctors may switch to more complex elbow surgery during operation

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy confirmed that the plan is for him to have an internal brace repair surgery to repair the injured ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but that plan could change during the operation.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

 

[deep9er]

A more complex elbow surgery could extend his 6 month rehab time. Looks like the doctor won't really know what he's going to do until he cuts Purdy's arm open and takes a look.

Brock Purdy says doctors may switch to more complex elbow surgery during operation

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy confirmed that the plan is for him to have an internal brace repair surgery to repair the injured ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, but that plan could change during the operation.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Yep, we can only project based on the current information, no guarantees come 3-6 months. This is what Mullins went thru, a change in plan once they went in. Well, at least the projection isn't more than 6 months, like an ACL.

Meanwhile, Lance needs to show improvement and don't see why he wouldn't? Not expecting him take a huge leap and surpass Purdy, but show enough so the team feels confident. It just seems like comments from teammates aren't as solid yet?