All things offseason

[deep9er]

DEVELOPING! IS A BIG SHAKE UP COMING?

By now, every 49ers draft nerd is aware that the 49ers had an inside leak prior to the draft. This is not in dispute. How do we know? Because they devised a scheme to expose the leak. They let it be know to a select few staff members that they were going to draft Cooper DeJean with the 31st pick overall. The trap had been set. If you were watching while the 49ers were on the clock, you may have seen it breathlessly divulged that the 49ers had selected DeJean. A minute later, the actual pick, Ricky Pearsall, was announced. For example, I was watching Brad Graham live on X (formerly Twitter). He reported, minutes be for the real pick was announced, that the Niners had drafted DeJean, which means he relied on information provided by "the leak." After a minute or so, confusion ensued as Brad corrected the previous report and confirmed that the pick was Pearsall. Back at headquarters, management was scrambling to identify the leak from the few who were told falsely that the pick was DeJean. To be clear, Graham was not the leak. He was simply relating the information the inhouse leak provided.

Why is this important? Because it means there was in fact a leak. And, a leak is only problematic when he/she are leaking truths. Anything that was not based on fact could be dismissed as typical pre-draft smoke screen. But when it exposes facts, it has the potential to undermine the team. For example, if a leak discloses at a player has requested a trade, and is forcing the team to move him, it drives down the negotiating power of the 49ers. The other team knows the 49ers hand is being forced, so they can lowball, knowing the 49ers are between a rock and a hard place.

This is precisely what a guy name John Frascella insists happened. He insists that on Sunday, April 14, a source (leak), which he insisted was impeccable, told him that Brandon Aiyuk had grown frustrated and demanded a trade. It is not clear to me what frustrated BA. Was it a contract offer that made him feel disrespected? Or was it frustration with how Kyle used him in the postseason? Or was it a combination of feeling under utilized in three consecutive gameplans of must win games, only to have a lowball offer confirm in his mind what he feared - that Kyle did not see him a a feature but as a compliment?

I have tried to explain why Aiyuk was frustrated, but let me now explain what the 49ers reality is. The 49ers are looking at team construction and salary cap allotments for the coming season and in a future with Brock Purdy's second contract. They have some principles of valuation, fiscal discipline and balance between units that makes them most successful. They also have existing contracts and a desire to get value in trades or comp picks, which sustain them in replenishing the roster with young talent. This is their reality. It can be a harsh reality, and things don't always resolve themselves as the team desires, which is why Arik Armstead is no longer a 49ers. But it is their reality.

One of those existing contracts is Deebo. It informs them on (1) what they can afford, and (2) what Aiyuk is worth. But then there are external forces, like Amon-Ra St. Brown's newly announced contract. This contract impasse with Aiyuk and trade demand no doubt influenced the selection of Ricky Pearsall to some extent. Whether or not he was the BPA, the position suddenly became a more pressing priority than it was say in late March.

Which brings me to say "Developing! Is a big shake up coming?" The draft came and went. No trade for draft picks occurred. The receiver room talent has been assembled. But the situation which led to Aiyuk's trade demand still exists. Nothing has changed but for the fact that two more receivers worthy of touches are now on the sideline. Despite all you hear about how happy they are with all this talent, there is still the issue of Aiyuk's contract demand and his desire to be more featured in crunch time, not less. So lets look to the calendar to see when some semblance of salary cap relief can be achieved to get BA the financial part of his demands - June 1. After June 1, most of Armstead's dead cap space gets allotted toward 2025. That would free up the space to allow Aiyuk to sign his deal, right? Likely, yes. But the 49ers would still have the issues with their roster principles and salary cap discipline; and Aiyuk might still have tensions about being featured as long as Kyle is giving Deebo more touches. And, their may be the additional issue of Deebo not being square with losing touches to BA and Pearsall. Plus, if that is reflected in less production during the 2024 season, it lessens Deebo's trade value next offseason.

My shake up is a potential trade of Deebo after June 1. This would free up additional cap space, allow the team to maintain positional salary cap discipline, permit Aiyuk to play the roll he desires, and give Kyle the opportunity to develop the 31st pick, Pearsall. What do you think? Is this why Pearsall (and Cowing) was drafted? Is this why the trade conversation won't go away, even after the draft?

Due to cap constraints now, next off season and beyond, trading Deebo can make sense. It also makes sense when looking at other skill players we have, plus Pearsall and Cowing. Although not a WR, Guerendo MIGHT take over some things Deebo does such as jet sweeps and WR screens.

I saw that Pittsburgh offered a 3rd and whether true or not, it does 'hint' no one is going to give up much. Since we won't get much for Deebo, I see us playing him this season and straining the cap on BA. No doubt we've started to mortgage the future and BA will push it even further. Deebo will likely be traded next off-season even if it isn't a 1st or even a 2nd rounder in return. They simply have to clear cap space for Purdy.

Next off-season we'll also see the exodus of good FA's, we simply can't compete on salary. Hopefully these current back-ups/rookies step up this season? They don't have to take over as starters and be good now, but flash enough talent so that Lynch has flexibility with decision making.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

My point is, nothing has changed. The same dynamics that existed when Aiyuk requested a trade are still in place. He still hasn't signed. He is not getting less expensive. He still wants his proper bank and role enough to request a trade. The only thing to change is that the 49ers are prepared to move on because they drafted Pearsall and Cowings. And, while they CAN trade Aiyuk at anytime, the soonest they can trade Deebo is after June 1 (just a month away). Fans tend to think that the draft was a deadline for trading either Aiyuk or Deebo because we wanted 2024 picks. Well, the organization doesn't have those artificial constraints. They could use 2025 draft picks or players in return.

If Pearsall is an Aiyuk replacement, it really alleviates the pressure for an offseason exodus next offseason. There would be zero dead cap. Trading Deebo after June 1 nets less than Aiyuk and burdens the team with dead cap over two seasons.

You have to ask yourself, why Pearsall? Was it because he is more Pro ready this season? Why is that significant? Is some productive receiver leaving during this 2024 season?

 

[deep9er]

My point is, nothing has changed. The same dynamics that existed when Aiyuk requested a trade are still in place. He still hasn't signed. He is not getting less expensive. He still wants his proper bank and role enough to request a trade. The only thing to change is that the 49ers are prepared to move on because they drafted Pearsall and Cowings. And, while they CAN trade Aiyuk at anytime, the soonest they can trade Deebo is after June 1 (just a month away). Fans tend to think that the draft was a deadline for trading either Aiyuk or Deebo because we wanted 2024 picks. Well, the organization doesn't have those artificial constraints. They could use 2025 draft picks or players in return.

If Pearsall is an Aiyuk replacement, it really alleviates the pressure for an offseason exodus next offseason. There would be zero dead cap. Trading Deebo after June 1 nets less than Aiyuk and burdens the team with dead cap over two seasons.

You have to ask yourself, why Pearsall? Was it because he is more Pro ready this season? Why is that significant? Is some productive receiver leaving during this 2024 season?

Yes, nothing has changed YET on BA's contract. So IMO he will get a new contract and strain our cap even further. Similar to all the other big contracts of recent past, it didn't happen till late in the off-season.

Yes, they may still trade Deebo after June 1st, but if you don't get an offer what do you do? Would you trade Deebo for a 2025 3rd rounder (alleged offer), or use him this season? I'd rather use him this season to push for a SB win. Nice to think Pearsall/Gurendo/Cowing will replace Deebo, but it takes time to acclimate to the NFL.

Pearsall was drafted because he fit the 49er scheme very well, per Greg Cosell, etal. The draft is to add the best players you can so maybe we're reading too much into the fact it was a WR? The idea of replacing players in the future applies to most positions anyway, had we drafted Jerzhan Newton then we'd be thinking to replace Javon Hargrave in 2025.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Yea, I read about the leak on draft day. I wonder who in the front office is going to get axed over it. B/c the Dejean pick spread like wildfire before everyone was shocked by Pearsall. I'm honestly glad to see the FO going after the leakers. Like you said it can hurt the team to have key info leaked at the wrong time.

As for a shakeup of the roster, sure it's coming. But I don't foresee it happening after June 1 this year. I fully expect the Niners to try and run it back with all of Deebo, BA, etc. this year. I see a big shakeup coming next offseason. By this time next year, Deebo will be traded, one of Demo or Ward are gone, Banks is gone, Greenlaw enters the last year of his deal, etc. Purdy will get a new contract and I believe BA will get a new contract as well.

I think the only thing that has changed for us at this point is that we now know what other teams could be willing to offer for Deebo and BA. That alone could encourage the team to run it back with out current roster (if the offers were low). It's pretty clear at this point that the offers weren't all that high. I mean, no way I'd have traded BA for an early 2024 2nd rd pick.

Pearsall was drafted b/c we're gonna lose one of either Deebo or BA. I was not a big fan of the pick, but from everything I can read, this is the kind of WR who can separate from man coverage (something our WRs struggled with in the SB). I honestly think Cowing was a great value where he was and that's why he was picked up (and for his high value in the return game).

 

[deep9er]

https://ninerswire.usatoday.com/lis...***********&utm_medium=dt&utm_campaign=affref

Good point, the 2023 draft class is where we should expect more - much more contribution, than the 2024 class. Although the 2023 draft class didn't include an OT either, we can sustain our SB window IF 2023 makes that 2nd year leap. Despite still not having a future OT, the rest of the team can be sustained throughout.

Jayir Brown is already on his way to becoming a quality starter.

Moody has a year under his belt, no reason he can't reduce his misses. With this offense, we shouldn't be kicking so many FG's anyway.

Not holding out for Latu to become THE no. 2 TE but, if he can make a leap to become a solid back-up/spot player. Not sure if Willis will focus on TE or try to be a "Juice" type player? If he can take Juice's role, think that is more beneficial?

Luter, Beal, Winters, Graham can all make a difference this season, especially with Greenlaw out. I wouldn't want to rush Greenlaw back anyway, we're better off keeping him out until he's truly healthy enough.

 

[Yosemite Sam]

I recall in prior to the 2023 season, the 49ers salary cap gurus created $21M+ in salary cap space with the notion of rolling it forward into tis 2024 season. It seems to me they would want to do something similar this offseason...that is create a sizable amount to roll forward into a HUGE 2025 offseason, in which they expect to extend Brock Purdy a record contract.

 

[deep9er]

I recall in prior to the 2023 season, the 49ers salary cap gurus created $21M+ in salary cap space with the notion of rolling it forward into tis 2024 season. It seems to me they would want to do something similar this offseason...that is create a sizable amount to roll forward into a HUGE 2025 offseason, in which they expect to extend Brock Purdy a record contract.

Yes, IF possible they will do this because everyone knows Purdy's new contract is coming. They have been doing this for a number of years now.

But we've already gone into mortgaging the future by extending player contracts, extending some players who may not play it out? Anyway, don't see us doing any more extensions right now, there's no player that makes sense to extend?

Next is BA's contract which they'll execute sooner or later. Then MAYBE Macaffery puts up a fuss later this season, for another Contract?

This doesn't leave much cap if anything, to push forward into 2025. So the theory is right but the cap constraints seem pretty tight this season?