AL Central Discussion

[WiggyRuss]

I want to say the Royals are overachieving a bit but they are on a massive win streak with a lame outfield. With one or two roster moves they could put a really strong team together.

same with the Guardians

if you would have told me that at the end of May that Bieber would make 2 starts and be done, Gavin Williams would have not made one start, Kwan would be out an extended period, we would lose Stephen- our setup guy for the last 2 years for the season, and our 2 best starting pitching prospects, Espino and Cantillo- and they would be 35-17- i would have said you were crazy.

Hopefully Williams and Kwan will be healthy and on the major league club soon.

unlike the Royals- I think the Guardians will need a SP unless Williams, McKenzie both play well and stay healthy which is a big big IF--- plus I sure hope it happens but Ben Lively is playing way over his head.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Was busy with some personal tasks and I’ll need to rewatch but this box score looks like Quatraro tempted fate and fate bit back with sending Wacha out 1 too many times. Really shouldn’t have been so magnified either way though.

Need more consistency in the offense outside of RISP grifting. Need literally any production from an OF’er and ideally Velazquez to just mash since he can’t really hack it with a glove. Think it’s about time to just let Waters and Loftin man outfield spots every day and just call it a day until the deadline. Way too thin a lineup to have so many Mickey Mouse names in a lineup. Witt and Perez shouldn’t need to carry the lineup.

 

[Clayton]

Was busy with some personal tasks and I’ll need to rewatch but this box score looks like Quatraro tempted fate and fate bit back with sending Wacha out 1 too many times. Really shouldn’t have been so magnified either way though.

Need more consistency in the offense outside of RISP grifting.

Waited too long on Wacha and the reliever beaned the worst hitter in baseball. Royals got their HR with no one on.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Jose still lacking in the avg. and obp department

but he had 24 hr and 80 RBI all last year. Already at 15 hr and leads the league with 52 rbis. Ramirez's career high in HR is 39 and RBI's is 126.

A 34 HR, 115 RBI season would be huge for him if he could get to it.

The Guardians would take that all day every day even if it means sacrificing some OBP.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Pablo Lopez now with an ERA over 5.

7.5 game lead on the Twins.

I will tell ya- they still scare me as much as the Royals though since Lewis is due back soon and I gotta think Lopez will come around. Correa has an .833 OPS and really has not even got going HR/RBI wise.

I will say- the Twins offense right now looks so dependent on the HR. Julien was supposed to be a high OBP guy and he has been astoundingly bad- I would not be surprised if he was sent down to the minors soon if he doesnt get it straightened out.

Julien was (before he was just dropped in the lineup) primary lead off guy vs. righties- and he has a .167 avg, .265 OBP with a crazy .448 OPS in the month of May.

Last year Julien had 16 HR in 338 at bats and a OBP of .380. Did the league adjust or is something up?

 

[WiggyRuss]

I will say- Tyler Freeman has tried hard in the leadoff spot- but geez will it be nice to get Kwan back. I expect him to be back this weekend vs. the Royals.

I dont expect Kwan to finish the year with an OPS over .900 and obp over .400---- but if he can keep that OBP up around/over .380- he is gonna score a TON of runs with Jose, Naylor and Gimenez behind him.

there are certain guys hitting leadoff that might be better players-- but as far as a pure leadoff hitter goes? seeing pitches, not striking out, getting on base, running the bases, working the pitchers, making contact, etc--- not many better leadoff hitters than Kwan. He is a throw back to old school leadoff guys.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Guardians ERA is 3.30 4th in the majors.

No Bieber, no Williams. McKenzie is pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow.

it has looked this way for a while- but this year makes it even more apparent that the organization just does a great job coaching up a staff- from top to bottom.

the problem is the group as presently constituted probably lacks high-end up side in the starting rotation. Bibee has it. Williams does but hes not healthy. Bieber of course does but hes not healthy. Espino of course was the best pitching prospect in the minors before being devastated by multiple injuries. Cantillo and Stephen are hurt. Karinchak is hurt. McKenzie has really learned how to pitch but his pure stuff looks nothing like 2 years ago. The guys with the real high end stuff are mostly all hurt.

I think at the end of the day that is going to limit the Guardians upside.

 

[navamind]

Guardians ERA is 3.30 4th in the majors.

No Bieber, no Williams. McKenzie is pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow.

it has looked this way for a while- but this year makes it even more apparent that the organization just does a great job coaching up a staff- from top to bottom.

the problem is the group as presently constituted probably lacks high-end up side in the starting rotation. Bibee has it. Williams does but hes not healthy. Bieber of course does but hes not healthy. Espino of course was the best pitching prospect in the minors before being devastated by multiple injuries. Cantillo and Stephen are hurt. Karinchak is hurt. McKenzie has really learned how to pitch but his pure stuff looks nothing like 2 years ago. The guys with the real high end stuff are mostly all hurt.

I think at the end of the day that is going to limit the Guardians upside.

your bullpen is disgusting

Lively's also pitched well, but he's a 32-year-old journeyman with no track record of success. If you guys were struggling and had more rotation depth, he'd made sense as trade bait

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Pablo Lopez now with an ERA over 5.

7.5 game lead on the Twins.

I will tell ya- they still scare me as much as the Royals though since Lewis is due back soon and I gotta think Lopez will come around. Correa has an .833 OPS and really has not even got going HR/RBI wise.

I will say- the Twins offense right now looks so dependent on the HR. Julien was supposed to be a high OBP guy and he has been astoundingly bad- I would not be surprised if he was sent down to the minors soon if he doesnt get it straightened out.

Julien was (before he was just dropped in the lineup) primary lead off guy vs. righties- and he has a .167 avg, .265 OBP with a crazy .448 OPS in the month of May.

Last year Julien had 16 HR in 338 at bats and a OBP of .380. Did the league adjust or is something up?

Julien has done a complete 180 right now. Pressing on offense for more power and sacrificing his OBP.

But has turned from a total liability on defense to one of the better defensive 2B in the game through 2 months.

Whole offense is inconsistent because PT is inconsistent. Will be nice getting Royce back whose a lock to never be platooned.

Lopez should figure it out soon, but the SWR regression is still coming I feel.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Christian Vazquez enters tonights game with a .397 OPS in 101 ABs

Fucking mental he plays as much as he does.

 

[WiggyRuss]

what David Fry is doing makes no sense. 100 ab's in he is at .366 avg., .496 obp

he will be one of the Guardians that has a major correction at some point, but he just keeps hitting for right now.

It will be hard for me to believe the Guardians can keep this pace up- but its fun for right now.

 

[WiggyRuss]

The top three teams, by bullpen ERA, entering Sunday’s action:

1. Guardians, 2.49
2. Yankees, 2.84
3. Dodgers, 3.30

That gap between first and third is greater than the gap between third and 20th on the bullpen ERA leaderboard.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Speaking of regressions

Seth Lego is the most due pitcher of all time for a regression.

Not entirely optimistic it happens tonight, but let’s hope

 

[VikingFan2k2]

Speaking of regressions

Seth Lego is the most due pitcher of all time for a regression.

Not entirely optimistic it happens tonight, but let’s hope

You nailed this. Lugo is a lot like Chris Young. Big and intimidating, but his stuff isn't exactly electric. But like Chris Young, the Twins couldn't touch him.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

You nailed this. Lugo is a lot like Chris Young. Big and intimidating, but his stuff isn't exactly electric. But like Chris Young, the Twins couldn't touch him.

TBH tonight the AB's were pretty good that was another game of his impending regression

Whats nuts is how bad the Royals own Ober. Like completely ownage. They BABIP him and then hit the big bomb. Every time.

 

[VikingFan2k2]

TBH tonight the AB's were pretty good that was another game of his impending regression

Whats nuts is how bad the Royals own Ober. Like completely ownage. They BABIP him and then hit the big bomb. Every time.

It is so weird. The guy has a freaking 89 ERA against them. They are good this year, but damn they kick the shit out of Ober, who is otherwise a pretty good pitcher.

 

[WiggyRuss]

It is so weird. The guy has a freaking 89 ERA against them. They are good this year, but damn they kick the shit out of Ober, who is otherwise a pretty good pitcher.

Ober is an interesting guy- he is obviously a monster- freaking 6'9" and listed as 260.

He didnt really stick in the majors full time until what? his age 26 season? Lsat year he threw a lot of innings for him- and i think that was one reason why he was sent down to the minors and kind of ran out of gas.

he doesnt have a great fastball but it plays up due to his release point.

I think he is a solid middle of the rotation guy--- but not a guy I would feel great about being my top 3 in the postseason.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

You nailed this. Lugo is a lot like Chris Young. Big and intimidating, but his stuff isn't exactly electric. But like Chris Young, the Twins couldn't touch him.

Chris Young was kind of just an all around outlier. Lugo is pretty conventionally just good. Obviously not sub 2 ERA pitcher, but regressing him to an ERA to the 3's proves what exactly?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Ober is an interesting guy- he is obviously a monster- freaking 6'9" and listed as 260.

He didnt really stick in the majors full time until what? his age 26 season? Lsat year he threw a lot of innings for him- and i think that was one reason why he was sent down to the minors and kind of ran out of gas.

he doesnt have a great fastball but it plays up due to his release point.

I think he is a solid middle of the rotation guy--- but not a guy I would feel great about being my top 3 in the postseason.

Ober isn't really getting the number of GB's you'd like to not be prone to just being blitzed with bombs every now and again. His HR/FB% just regressed rather aggressively, imo. His GB% is only ~28% this year! 28%!

He's just average, imo.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Chris Young was kind of just an all around outlier. Lugo is pretty conventionally just good. Obviously not sub 2 ERA pitcher, but regressing him to an ERA to the 3's proves what exactly?

Lugo does have a career 3.30 ERA in over 700 IP

Obviously we both agree he is not gonna have a sub 2 era- but if he has an average-to-below-average season for his career the rest of the season- his ERA will be in the low 3's.

sometimes people get over enamored with FIP and strikeout rate, etc.....some guys just know how to pitch

Pablo Lopez stuff looks great- but for the most part- over a large sample size - his results have not been a whole lot different than Lugo's-- Lopez's careeer ERA is just a shade under 4.00

throwing fast and strikeouts is great for a pitcher but you gotta be consistent and be know how to pitch too. Gavin Williams has a lot better stuff than Bibee if you ask me--- but Bibee just knows how to pitch...guys can get it done different ways.