AFC West Teams: What Makes a Successful 2018?

[fightinredantz]

If Chiefs go 3-3 in the first 6 games I think they will win the AFCW

In my opinion 3-3 will be a great start. I am not as high on the 49ers as some are, but the other 5 games in that stretch could be brutal. 1-5 is not unrealistic. The wild card games are the Charges, Broncos and Jags. I don't see them winning all 3 of those.

 

[Draft Crazy]

Agreed. I think the Watkins signing will hurt them a bit as they tied up a lot of money in a guy that just can't stay healthy. Kelce and Hunt are great. I think Maholms will make big plays for both teams this year. He put some tape out there last year that allowed teams to study. I think he probably has improved, but any first year starter will have ups and downs.

I think 10-6 is pretty optimistic, but at the same time I can see how he came up with it going through the schedule.

Not to mention he is very similar style of play to Tyreek Hill.

Chiefs will live and die with the big play on O this year. They might be a lot easier to defend, but a lot more dangerous if you can't.

 

[Clayton]

Not to mention he is very similar style of play to Tyreek Hill.

Chiefs will live and die with the big play on O this year. They might be a lot easier to defend, but a lot more dangerous if you can't.

Honestly, thats what the team was last year and I think teams will adjust.

I think the Chiefs need to be able to convert in the red zone and on 3rd down on defense to make the playoffs. I think teams are going to blitz Mahomes on a regular basis to keep the big plays from happening until you get to the red zone and then teams are going to give Mahomes all the time in the world to make a mistake.

The Chiefs will have big plays but they are also going to be sloppier than last year. They need to fix their two big issues (red zone offense, 3rd down defense) if they are going to do anything.

 

[Draft Crazy]

Honestly, thats what the team was last year and I think teams will adjust.

I think the Chiefs need to be able to convert in the red zone and on 3rd down on defense to make the playoffs. I think teams are going to blitz Mahomes on a regular basis to keep the big plays from happening until you get to the red zone and then teams are going to give Mahomes all the time in the world to make a mistake.

The Chiefs will have big plays but they are also going to be sloppier than last year. They need to fix their two big issues (red zone offense, 3rd down defense) if they are going to do anything.

Great post-

 

[CaptainStubing]

Now that preseason is over and the rosters are being finalized it's time to discuss expectations from the standpoint of the fans. The question is simple: what kind of performance do you think fans of each AFC West team will result in fans of that team, in hindsight after the season has ended, agreeing it was a good season. Naturally every fan wants their team to contend, and during the heat of the season, failure to do so will no doubt lead to frustration. But come late February, emotions tend to subside and critical thinking on a team's performance surfaces. And THAT's what this post is about. What kind of performance will it take for the fans of these teams to look back and say it was a good season?


My thoughts:


Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Champs, deep playoff run, perhaps AFCCG appearance. The Chargers are a near consensus pick to win the AFC West this year. They have a defense that, despite being a bottom feeder against the run held scoring to 4th best in the league. Their pass rush and secondary are top flight and if they shore up the run defense they are elite on that side of the ball. On offense they have a lot of play makers, but they need to put it together. This is a team that is notorious for under performing, so despite appearing to look the strongest at this point, they may come out flat and scuttle what many expect to be a good season for them. But if they put it all together they may just be one of the best in the AFC. And they've under achieved for so long I believe it's going to take a deep playoff run for Chargers fans to reflect positively on this season. They need to win the AFC West, perhaps with an 11-5 or so record, and at least reach the AFCCG. Philip Rivers is in the twilight of his career. He is a great QB and he plays opposite one of the best defenses in the league. They have a tight window where they can make a name for themselves, so simply reaching the AFCCG may not even be enough for some fans. But I think for most of them it will result in reflecting positively on this season.


Kansas City Chiefs: A finish of .500 or better, with or without playoffs. This may seem like a low bar for a team that has reached the playoffs in 4 out of 5 seasons and was over .500 in the one playoff miss. I don't know that a lot of Chiefs fans will agree with me now, but I think if the Chiefs finish 8-8 by February there will be a lot of them who look back and say it was a good season. But the key isn't necessarily the 8-8, it'll be how they get there. They are breaking in a new QB in Patrick MaHomes and while he appears to have a very high ceiling in his first year as a starter he'll probably have a low floor too. The valleys will be forgiven if he shows enough high points along the way. And he will definitely have some moments with the supporting cast he has on offense. The line is questionable but they have a lot of talent across the skill positions. MaHomes will have some ups and downs, but the bigger issue will be their defense. They don't appear to have enough on that side of the ball to ride out the roller coaster performance they're likely to get out of their offense. Opponents will likely be able to put points up against them consistently, putting pressure on a young QB to respond. It'll be frustrating to watch, but I believe once things settle down after the season has ended, and assuming MaHomes gives them enough positives to look forward to going into the future, an 8-8 finish will be considered a successful season.


Denver Broncos: A 9-7 finish with a playoff appearance. After a dismal finish in 2017 some may think expectations should be lower. But with head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat we can use that as a metric for what fans will consider successful. If he is retained, the season will likely be considered a success. If not, well that's an easy judgment to make. I believe it's going to take a minimum of a 9-7 record and a playoff appearance for VJ to keep his job. That would show tremendous improvement over last year. If the Broncos go 9-7 and fail to reach the playoffs I am willing to bet VJ is gone: this team doesn't spend a lot of time trying to recover sunk costs (see Jon Fox after a 12-4 finish in 2014.) Add to it the Broncos still have a tremendous amount of talent on defense, fueling expectations for a drastic turnaround from last year. A revamped offense has fans believing they'll at least be functional on that side of the ball, something they haven't seen since Manning retired. There are a lot of fans that see the offense as capable of putting up 23-24 PPG and playing complementary football with this defense. If that comes to fruition the Broncos can be the next "worst to first" story. But if they land somewhere in between, say...reaching the playoffs as a wild card, I think most fans will consider it a successful season.


Oakland Raiders: A 7-9 finish. Just don't embarrass us. Too much. The Raiders set a record for successive seasons in double digit losses. They broke that up with a pair of 8-8 finishes in 2010 and 2011, then regressed once again. 2015 saw them reach 7-9 before things came together for a 12-4 run in 2016. Then they were back to 6-10 last year. Gruden is back and he has overhauled the roster, with his latest accomplishment being the moving of the team's best player in Mack to the Bears. Even QB Derrick Carr couldn't believe it. The Raiders defense was exploitable with Mack. Without him? Gruden's offense is going to need to score a lot of points. But breaking in a new and complex system is going to make that challenging at times, especially in the AFC West where 4 of their games are coming against two extremely good defenses in the Chargers and Broncos. This team may well be a dumpster fire on the level of Art Shell's return to Oakland. Given all the upheaval and system changes I think if the Raiders manage a 7-9 finish and minimize the number of blowout losses suffered Raiders fans will look back and breathe a sigh of relief.


AFC West fans, what say you?

i think this is a pretty good breakdown .

i think i agree with most of this except i think raider nation is not going to consider 7-9 to be a good season ... i think they will be pissed

and if the Chiefs regress back to .500, the only way their fans will think the season is good is if Mahomes looks like a young Aaron Rodgers (or if the season ends with Bob Sutton finally getting fired).

 

[CEH]

The team that has +15 in TO differential I like their chances to win the AFCW. -17 not so much.

 

[iknowftbll]

Not to mention he is very similar style of play to Tyreek Hill.

Chiefs will live and die with the big play on O this year. They might be a lot easier to defend, but a lot more dangerous if you can't.

Honestly, thats what the team was last year and I think teams will adjust.

I think the Chiefs need to be able to convert in the red zone and on 3rd down on defense to make the playoffs. I think teams are going to blitz Mahomes on a regular basis to keep the big plays from happening until you get to the red zone and then teams are going to give Mahomes all the time in the world to make a mistake.

The Chiefs will have big plays but they are also going to be sloppier than last year. They need to fix their two big issues (red zone offense, 3rd down defense) if they are going to do anything.

This Chiefs offense may look a lot like the 2008 Broncos. That team was #2 in total yards but scored a cock hair over 23 PPG. The red zone was a huge issue for them. I can see this Chiefs offense getting tons of yards but struggling to seal the deal, with a 35-40 point game thrown in there on a good week.

And since I’m holding the 2008 Broncos as a possible comparison let’s hope that Chiefs defense is about as “good” as the Broncos’ D from 2008!

 

[Clayton]

This Chiefs offense may look a lot like the 2008 Broncos. That team was #2 in total yards but scored a cock hair over 23 PPG. The red zone was a huge issue for them. I can see this Chiefs offense getting tons of yards but struggling to seal the deal, with a 35-40 point game thrown in there on a good week.

And since I’m holding the 2008 Broncos as a possible comparison let’s hope that Chiefs defense is about as “good” as the Broncos’ D from 2008!

The reason why they overpaid Sammy Watkins was because of the red zone. The oline is just mediocre and the QB play is in question but there are a lot of options.

Alex Smith hated tight windows. I wouldnt be shocked if he just isnt a good red zone QB. He also didnt take chances and that helped the Chiefs have a very unsustainable turnover margin. I think the Chiefs offensive DNA has changed with the changing of the QB.

I have seen the Jay Cutler comparison thrown around. Its a possibility. I'm seeing a young Matt Stafford and thats not exactly a 'playoffs' look, either, but there is a possibility that he is the next Kevin Kolb or Paxton Lynch. All bets are off with the Chiefs this year. They could be anything.

I think we're in the same boat as the Bears and Texans. Except our defense is probably worse. Making the playoffs would be 'ahead of schedule' for a team like the Chiefs so I'm not really sure what to expect.

 

[CEH]

The reason why they overpaid Sammy Watkins was because of the red zone. The oline is just mediocre and the QB play is in question but there are a lot of options.

Alex Smith hated tight windows. I wouldnt be shocked if he just isnt a good red zone QB. He also didnt take chances and that helped the Chiefs have a very unsustainable turnover margin. I think the Chiefs offensive DNA has changed with the changing of the QB.

I have seen the Jay Cutler comparison thrown around. Its a possibility. I'm seeing a young Matt Stafford and thats not exactly a 'playoffs' look, either, but there is a possibility that he is the next Kevin Kolb or Paxton Lynch. All bets are off with the Chiefs this year. They could be anything.

I think we're in the same boat as the Bears and Texans. Except our defense is probably worse. Making the playoffs would be 'ahead of schedule' for a team like the Chiefs so I'm not really sure what to expect.

I’d take a Jay Cutler with a better attitude any day. Could be worst
Could be the real Jay Cutler

 

[SpiritOf77]

Just doing some reading on Andy Reid, and his record vs playoff and non-playoff teams

Since coming to KC in 2013, Reid's numbers look like this -

Vs non-playoff teams:

2013 : 10-0
2014 : 7-3
2015 : 8-1
2016 : 9-2
2017: 8-4

Vs playoff teams:

2013: 1-5
2014: 2-4
2015: 3-4
2016 : 3-2
2017: 2-2

Andy has been consistently good in beating the teams he should beat ... but KC has struggled against the better teams ...

In looking over KC's schedule, I see the first six games are against legitimate playoff caliber teams - the Broncos and 9ers being the weakest, but both I feel have an excellent shot at the playoff this season ..

These 6 games are important in that, if the Chiefs get out of the gate fast - esp with essentially a first year QB - they could be on track for a great season .. a 4-2 start would probably be seen as very good ..

On the other hand, if they Chiefs go, say, 1-5, it might be hard for Mahommes to keep from pressing - which could definitely snowball ...

It goes with saying that Oct 1 at Denver is huge ...

I am not sold on Mahommes ... I think KC will miss Alex Smith's consistency quite often this season ..

With a hot start, they could realistically go 13-3 ... conversely, a disappointing start could snowball into something ugly ..

 

[fightinredantz]

I agree about KC. I will be at the October 1st game. I will do my best to make life difficult on KC.

 

[Mingo]

The Chiefs in October - it seems so unfair to them.

 

[CEH]

Just doing some reading on Andy Reid, and his record vs playoff and non-playoff teams

Since coming to KC in 2013, Reid's numbers look like this -

Vs non-playoff teams:

2013 : 10-0
2014 : 7-3
2015 : 8-1
2016 : 9-2
2017: 8-4

Vs playoff teams:

2013: 1-5
2014: 2-4
2015: 3-4
2016 : 3-2
2017: 2-2

Andy has been consistently good in beating the teams he should beat ... but KC has struggled against the better teams ...

In looking over KC's schedule, I see the first six games are against legitimate playoff caliber teams - the Broncos and 9ers being the weakest, but both I feel have an excellent shot at the playoff this season ..

These 6 games are important in that, if the Chiefs get out of the gate fast - esp with essentially a first year QB - they could be on track for a great season .. a 4-2 start would probably be seen as very good ..

On the other hand, if they Chiefs go, say, 1-5, it might be hard for Mahommes to keep from pressing - which could definitely snowball ...

It goes with saying that Oct 1 at Denver is huge ...

I am not sold on Mahommes ... I think KC will miss Alex Smith's consistency quite often this season ..

With a hot start, they could realistically go 13-3 ... conversely, a disappointing start could snowball into something ugly ..

Not to mention the disasters in the playoffs. What a choke job. In the Tenn game last year , down by 1 point with 5 minutes to go , the leading rusher in the league had 1 carry in the final 5 minutes. That's Andy Reid for you.

 

[fightinredantz]

I read somewhere after that game that in the last decade the Broncos had a better playoff record at Arrowhead then the Chiefs do. As a Broncos fan that is some funny stuff.

 

[Draft Crazy]

I read somewhere after that game that in the last decade the Broncos had a better playoff record at Arrowhead then the Chiefs do. As a Broncos fan that is some funny stuff.

If you come across it again let me know. That would be a nice little facebook post.

 

[fightinredantz]

If you come across it again let me know. That would be a nice little facebook post.

That is where I saw it. I will let you know if/when I find it again.

 

[Mingo]

That is where I saw it. I will let you know if/when I find it again.

Yeah - well - if you saw it here - it could have come from a dubious source like @Mingo for instance.

The answer to the question - can you alert @yourself? - That answer - sadly is no.

 

[Clayton]

Just doing some reading on Andy Reid, and his record vs playoff and non-playoff teams

Since coming to KC in 2013, Reid's numbers look like this -

Vs non-playoff teams:

2013 : 10-0
2014 : 7-3
2015 : 8-1
2016 : 9-2
2017: 8-4

Vs playoff teams:

2013: 1-5
2014: 2-4
2015: 3-4
2016 : 3-2
2017: 2-2

Andy has been consistently good in beating the teams he should beat ... but KC has struggled against the better teams ...

In looking over KC's schedule, I see the first six games are against legitimate playoff caliber teams - the Broncos and 9ers being the weakest, but both I feel have an excellent shot at the playoff this season ..

These 6 games are important in that, if the Chiefs get out of the gate fast - esp with essentially a first year QB - they could be on track for a great season .. a 4-2 start would probably be seen as very good ..

On the other hand, if they Chiefs go, say, 1-5, it might be hard for Mahommes to keep from pressing - which could definitely snowball ...

It goes with saying that Oct 1 at Denver is huge ...

I am not sold on Mahommes ... I think KC will miss Alex Smith's consistency quite often this season ..

With a hot start, they could realistically go 13-3 ... conversely, a disappointing start could snowball into something ugly ..

Imo, the bigger stat with the Chiefs is that they were 11-1 against the AFC West the past 2 seasons and only .500 against everyone else.

The Chiefs literally beat the two best teams in football last year and lost to the Giants after a bye week.

The Chiefs with Alex Smith have been the product of an awful AFC West.

 

[Draft Crazy]

The Chiefs literally beat the two best teams in football last year and lost to the Giants after a bye week.

Hey at least you didn't lose to a winless Giants minus 8 starters (top 3 WR's, starting center, CB, best pass rusher, OL) following your bye week like some team in the AFC West did last year.

 

[SpiritOf77]

Imo, the bigger stat with the Chiefs is that they were 11-1 against the AFC West the past 2 seasons and only .500 against everyone else.

The Chiefs literally beat the two best teams in football last year and lost to the Giants after a bye week.

The Chiefs with Alex Smith have been the product of an awful AFC West.

That's a good stat ... the past two seasons have been rough for the Broncos, but I still think the Chiefs had a good shot with Alex Smith ... Speaking as a NFL fan, I like Alex Smith - as a Bronco fan, I dreaded him taking off and running on those 3rd and long situations - something he did very well ... I think he's more than just a game manager ..

Even with the Broncos' skid of the past 2 years, we had fielded a tough defense .. and playing SD with their pass rush isn;t the easiest for a QB ... Smith had a great season last year - a 104.7 rating, 4,000+ yards 26/5 TD to INT ... That's good stuff ....

And even though KC has some great offensive talent, there will be a lot of pressure on Mahommes in the early going this season ....
.