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Now that preseason is over and the rosters are being finalized it's time to discuss expectations from the standpoint of the fans. The question is simple: what kind of performance do you think fans of each AFC West team will result in fans of that team, in hindsight after the season has ended, agreeing it was a good season. Naturally every fan wants their team to contend, and during the heat of the season, failure to do so will no doubt lead to frustration. But come late February, emotions tend to subside and critical thinking on a team's performance surfaces. And THAT's what this post is about. What kind of performance will it take for the fans of these teams to look back and say it was a good season?
My thoughts:
Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Champs, deep playoff run, perhaps AFCCG appearance. The Chargers are a near consensus pick to win the AFC West this year. They have a defense that, despite being a bottom feeder against the run held scoring to 4th best in the league. Their pass rush and secondary are top flight and if they shore up the run defense they are elite on that side of the ball. On offense they have a lot of play makers, but they need to put it together. This is a team that is notorious for under performing, so despite appearing to look the strongest at this point, they may come out flat and scuttle what many expect to be a good season for them. But if they put it all together they may just be one of the best in the AFC. And they've under achieved for so long I believe it's going to take a deep playoff run for Chargers fans to reflect positively on this season. They need to win the AFC West, perhaps with an 11-5 or so record, and at least reach the AFCCG. Philip Rivers is in the twilight of his career. He is a great QB and he plays opposite one of the best defenses in the league. They have a tight window where they can make a name for themselves, so simply reaching the AFCCG may not even be enough for some fans. But I think for most of them it will result in reflecting positively on this season.
Kansas City Chiefs: A finish of .500 or better, with or without playoffs. This may seem like a low bar for a team that has reached the playoffs in 4 out of 5 seasons and was over .500 in the one playoff miss. I don't know that a lot of Chiefs fans will agree with me now, but I think if the Chiefs finish 8-8 by February there will be a lot of them who look back and say it was a good season. But the key isn't necessarily the 8-8, it'll be how they get there. They are breaking in a new QB in Patrick MaHomes and while he appears to have a very high ceiling in his first year as a starter he'll probably have a low floor too. The valleys will be forgiven if he shows enough high points along the way. And he will definitely have some moments with the supporting cast he has on offense. The line is questionable but they have a lot of talent across the skill positions. MaHomes will have some ups and downs, but the bigger issue will be their defense. They don't appear to have enough on that side of the ball to ride out the roller coaster performance they're likely to get out of their offense. Opponents will likely be able to put points up against them consistently, putting pressure on a young QB to respond. It'll be frustrating to watch, but I believe once things settle down after the season has ended, and assuming MaHomes gives them enough positives to look forward to going into the future, an 8-8 finish will be considered a successful season.
Denver Broncos: A 9-7 finish with a playoff appearance. After a dismal finish in 2017 some may think expectations should be lower. But with head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat we can use that as a metric for what fans will consider successful. If he is retained, the season will likely be considered a success. If not, well that's an easy judgment to make. I believe it's going to take a minimum of a 9-7 record and a playoff appearance for VJ to keep his job. That would show tremendous improvement over last year. If the Broncos go 9-7 and fail to reach the playoffs I am willing to bet VJ is gone: this team doesn't spend a lot of time trying to recover sunk costs (see Jon Fox after a 12-4 finish in 2014.) Add to it the Broncos still have a tremendous amount of talent on defense, fueling expectations for a drastic turnaround from last year. A revamped offense has fans believing they'll at least be functional on that side of the ball, something they haven't seen since Manning retired. There are a lot of fans that see the offense as capable of putting up 23-24 PPG and playing complementary football with this defense. If that comes to fruition the Broncos can be the next "worst to first" story. But if they land somewhere in between, say...reaching the playoffs as a wild card, I think most fans will consider it a successful season.
Oakland Raiders: A 7-9 finish. Just don't embarrass us. Too much. The Raiders set a record for successive seasons in double digit losses. They broke that up with a pair of 8-8 finishes in 2010 and 2011, then regressed once again. 2015 saw them reach 7-9 before things came together for a 12-4 run in 2016. Then they were back to 6-10 last year. Gruden is back and he has overhauled the roster, with his latest accomplishment being the moving of the team's best player in Mack to the Bears. Even QB Derrick Carr couldn't believe it. The Raiders defense was exploitable with Mack. Without him? Gruden's offense is going to need to score a lot of points. But breaking in a new and complex system is going to make that challenging at times, especially in the AFC West where 4 of their games are coming against two extremely good defenses in the Chargers and Broncos. This team may well be a dumpster fire on the level of Art Shell's return to Oakland. Given all the upheaval and system changes I think if the Raiders manage a 7-9 finish and minimize the number of blowout losses suffered Raiders fans will look back and breathe a sigh of relief.
AFC West fans, what say you?
My thoughts:
Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Champs, deep playoff run, perhaps AFCCG appearance. The Chargers are a near consensus pick to win the AFC West this year. They have a defense that, despite being a bottom feeder against the run held scoring to 4th best in the league. Their pass rush and secondary are top flight and if they shore up the run defense they are elite on that side of the ball. On offense they have a lot of play makers, but they need to put it together. This is a team that is notorious for under performing, so despite appearing to look the strongest at this point, they may come out flat and scuttle what many expect to be a good season for them. But if they put it all together they may just be one of the best in the AFC. And they've under achieved for so long I believe it's going to take a deep playoff run for Chargers fans to reflect positively on this season. They need to win the AFC West, perhaps with an 11-5 or so record, and at least reach the AFCCG. Philip Rivers is in the twilight of his career. He is a great QB and he plays opposite one of the best defenses in the league. They have a tight window where they can make a name for themselves, so simply reaching the AFCCG may not even be enough for some fans. But I think for most of them it will result in reflecting positively on this season.
Kansas City Chiefs: A finish of .500 or better, with or without playoffs. This may seem like a low bar for a team that has reached the playoffs in 4 out of 5 seasons and was over .500 in the one playoff miss. I don't know that a lot of Chiefs fans will agree with me now, but I think if the Chiefs finish 8-8 by February there will be a lot of them who look back and say it was a good season. But the key isn't necessarily the 8-8, it'll be how they get there. They are breaking in a new QB in Patrick MaHomes and while he appears to have a very high ceiling in his first year as a starter he'll probably have a low floor too. The valleys will be forgiven if he shows enough high points along the way. And he will definitely have some moments with the supporting cast he has on offense. The line is questionable but they have a lot of talent across the skill positions. MaHomes will have some ups and downs, but the bigger issue will be their defense. They don't appear to have enough on that side of the ball to ride out the roller coaster performance they're likely to get out of their offense. Opponents will likely be able to put points up against them consistently, putting pressure on a young QB to respond. It'll be frustrating to watch, but I believe once things settle down after the season has ended, and assuming MaHomes gives them enough positives to look forward to going into the future, an 8-8 finish will be considered a successful season.
Denver Broncos: A 9-7 finish with a playoff appearance. After a dismal finish in 2017 some may think expectations should be lower. But with head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat we can use that as a metric for what fans will consider successful. If he is retained, the season will likely be considered a success. If not, well that's an easy judgment to make. I believe it's going to take a minimum of a 9-7 record and a playoff appearance for VJ to keep his job. That would show tremendous improvement over last year. If the Broncos go 9-7 and fail to reach the playoffs I am willing to bet VJ is gone: this team doesn't spend a lot of time trying to recover sunk costs (see Jon Fox after a 12-4 finish in 2014.) Add to it the Broncos still have a tremendous amount of talent on defense, fueling expectations for a drastic turnaround from last year. A revamped offense has fans believing they'll at least be functional on that side of the ball, something they haven't seen since Manning retired. There are a lot of fans that see the offense as capable of putting up 23-24 PPG and playing complementary football with this defense. If that comes to fruition the Broncos can be the next "worst to first" story. But if they land somewhere in between, say...reaching the playoffs as a wild card, I think most fans will consider it a successful season.
Oakland Raiders: A 7-9 finish. Just don't embarrass us. Too much. The Raiders set a record for successive seasons in double digit losses. They broke that up with a pair of 8-8 finishes in 2010 and 2011, then regressed once again. 2015 saw them reach 7-9 before things came together for a 12-4 run in 2016. Then they were back to 6-10 last year. Gruden is back and he has overhauled the roster, with his latest accomplishment being the moving of the team's best player in Mack to the Bears. Even QB Derrick Carr couldn't believe it. The Raiders defense was exploitable with Mack. Without him? Gruden's offense is going to need to score a lot of points. But breaking in a new and complex system is going to make that challenging at times, especially in the AFC West where 4 of their games are coming against two extremely good defenses in the Chargers and Broncos. This team may well be a dumpster fire on the level of Art Shell's return to Oakland. Given all the upheaval and system changes I think if the Raiders manage a 7-9 finish and minimize the number of blowout losses suffered Raiders fans will look back and breathe a sigh of relief.
AFC West fans, what say you?
