AFC West Teams: What Makes a Successful 2018?

[iknowftbll]

Now that preseason is over and the rosters are being finalized it's time to discuss expectations from the standpoint of the fans. The question is simple: what kind of performance do you think fans of each AFC West team will result in fans of that team, in hindsight after the season has ended, agreeing it was a good season. Naturally every fan wants their team to contend, and during the heat of the season, failure to do so will no doubt lead to frustration. But come late February, emotions tend to subside and critical thinking on a team's performance surfaces. And THAT's what this post is about. What kind of performance will it take for the fans of these teams to look back and say it was a good season?


My thoughts:


Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Champs, deep playoff run, perhaps AFCCG appearance. The Chargers are a near consensus pick to win the AFC West this year. They have a defense that, despite being a bottom feeder against the run held scoring to 4th best in the league. Their pass rush and secondary are top flight and if they shore up the run defense they are elite on that side of the ball. On offense they have a lot of play makers, but they need to put it together. This is a team that is notorious for under performing, so despite appearing to look the strongest at this point, they may come out flat and scuttle what many expect to be a good season for them. But if they put it all together they may just be one of the best in the AFC. And they've under achieved for so long I believe it's going to take a deep playoff run for Chargers fans to reflect positively on this season. They need to win the AFC West, perhaps with an 11-5 or so record, and at least reach the AFCCG. Philip Rivers is in the twilight of his career. He is a great QB and he plays opposite one of the best defenses in the league. They have a tight window where they can make a name for themselves, so simply reaching the AFCCG may not even be enough for some fans. But I think for most of them it will result in reflecting positively on this season.


Kansas City Chiefs: A finish of .500 or better, with or without playoffs. This may seem like a low bar for a team that has reached the playoffs in 4 out of 5 seasons and was over .500 in the one playoff miss. I don't know that a lot of Chiefs fans will agree with me now, but I think if the Chiefs finish 8-8 by February there will be a lot of them who look back and say it was a good season. But the key isn't necessarily the 8-8, it'll be how they get there. They are breaking in a new QB in Patrick MaHomes and while he appears to have a very high ceiling in his first year as a starter he'll probably have a low floor too. The valleys will be forgiven if he shows enough high points along the way. And he will definitely have some moments with the supporting cast he has on offense. The line is questionable but they have a lot of talent across the skill positions. MaHomes will have some ups and downs, but the bigger issue will be their defense. They don't appear to have enough on that side of the ball to ride out the roller coaster performance they're likely to get out of their offense. Opponents will likely be able to put points up against them consistently, putting pressure on a young QB to respond. It'll be frustrating to watch, but I believe once things settle down after the season has ended, and assuming MaHomes gives them enough positives to look forward to going into the future, an 8-8 finish will be considered a successful season.


Denver Broncos: A 9-7 finish with a playoff appearance. After a dismal finish in 2017 some may think expectations should be lower. But with head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat we can use that as a metric for what fans will consider successful. If he is retained, the season will likely be considered a success. If not, well that's an easy judgment to make. I believe it's going to take a minimum of a 9-7 record and a playoff appearance for VJ to keep his job. That would show tremendous improvement over last year. If the Broncos go 9-7 and fail to reach the playoffs I am willing to bet VJ is gone: this team doesn't spend a lot of time trying to recover sunk costs (see Jon Fox after a 12-4 finish in 2014.) Add to it the Broncos still have a tremendous amount of talent on defense, fueling expectations for a drastic turnaround from last year. A revamped offense has fans believing they'll at least be functional on that side of the ball, something they haven't seen since Manning retired. There are a lot of fans that see the offense as capable of putting up 23-24 PPG and playing complementary football with this defense. If that comes to fruition the Broncos can be the next "worst to first" story. But if they land somewhere in between, say...reaching the playoffs as a wild card, I think most fans will consider it a successful season.


Oakland Raiders: A 7-9 finish. Just don't embarrass us. Too much. The Raiders set a record for successive seasons in double digit losses. They broke that up with a pair of 8-8 finishes in 2010 and 2011, then regressed once again. 2015 saw them reach 7-9 before things came together for a 12-4 run in 2016. Then they were back to 6-10 last year. Gruden is back and he has overhauled the roster, with his latest accomplishment being the moving of the team's best player in Mack to the Bears. Even QB Derrick Carr couldn't believe it. The Raiders defense was exploitable with Mack. Without him? Gruden's offense is going to need to score a lot of points. But breaking in a new and complex system is going to make that challenging at times, especially in the AFC West where 4 of their games are coming against two extremely good defenses in the Chargers and Broncos. This team may well be a dumpster fire on the level of Art Shell's return to Oakland. Given all the upheaval and system changes I think if the Raiders manage a 7-9 finish and minimize the number of blowout losses suffered Raiders fans will look back and breathe a sigh of relief.


AFC West fans, what say you?

 

[Clayton]

I think the Chargers need a Super Bowl appearance. That Philip Rivers window is going to close.

Raiders and Chiefs need to leave the season thinking they have a franchise QB.

Broncos need to leave the season thinking they have a coach and I think they need to have a top 5 defense.

Imo.

 

[iknowftbll]

I think the Chargers need a Super Bowl appearance. That Philip Rivers window is going to close.

Raiders and Chiefs need to leave the season thinking they have a franchise QB.

Broncos need to leave the season thinking they have a coach and I think they need to have a top 5 defense.

Imo.

We are very close on a lot of our takes for each team. On another forum we were discussing the whole season from standings to playoffs and I picked the Chargers to get boat raced by the Rams in the Super Bowl.

 

[Mingo]

Always a pleasure to read IKno's thoughts on football - I avoid the pay sites like the devil - and get it free here - thanks to @iknowftbll
Chiefs - My usual scouting report here - they are not coached to be champions - just also rans. I am not sold on Mahomes at QB.

Chargers - I would hate to pin my hopes on Rivers for this season - they already have had bad injury luck in the preseason.

Raiders - They way I read what's going on with the Raiders - is that they are going to rebuild this team in time to move to Vegas. This is year is a chemistry lab.
Broncos - I am very bullish on the Broncos - I think the medium talent - the oversized balls - and the moxie of Case Keenum will pay off very handsomely for this team. If the offense can - provide offense - the Defense will surge.

Broncos - I am bullish on the Broncos. I think Case Keenum provides - veteran smarts - medium talent - quick thinking - oversized balls and moxie - just what the Broncos need to have an offense that can produce time off the clock and TDs. Any kind of offensive success will allow the Defense to surge.

 

[58crash]

We are very close on a lot of our takes for each team. On another forum we were discussing the whole season from standings to playoffs and I picked the Chargers to get boat raced by the Rams in the Super Bowl.

Rivers is the best 8-8 team ever this year mark it down .

 

[58crash]

Our CB play will probably sink us this year. well, that and our fearless leader.

 

[58crash]

For the last 4 years, our OL sucked so badly I still cannot imagine how we won an SB with that crap of a OL . Itboggle's my mind that we won SB50 .

Manning with a Real OL that would be neat to have seen well 2014 I guess .

This year OL looks to be very good I think this means we have every right as fans to Expect to win the West. After that, it will be on the Coaches

 

[CEH]

If your analysis of Denver is really about making the playoffs the team needs to be 10-6. 9-7 has too many factors brought into play to guarantee a playoff spot with that record.
I think VJ is here next year at 9-7 playoffs or not. 9 wins is the magic number for VJ this year.

 

[Clayton]

We are very close on a lot of our takes for each team. On another forum we were discussing the whole season from standings to playoffs and I picked the Chargers to get boat raced by the Rams in the Super Bowl.

I actually don't like the Chargers or the Rams to make the Super Bowl. Goff's efficiency at QB and Gurley's efficiency at RB were both at MVP level last season and I think the Rams were the healthiest team in the NFL. You could see the team move sideways even with an improved roster.

Chargers always have to deal with injuries, their run defense is suspect and Rivers has had lots of issues closing games against good teams. Chargers have generally been a team that beats non-playoff teams and loses to playoff teams. Go back and look at the run the Chargers had from last year...its not actually all that impressive.

Broncos - I am bullish on the Broncos. I think Case Keenum provides - veteran smarts - medium talent - quick thinking - oversized balls and moxie - just what the Broncos need to have an offense that can produce time off the clock and TDs. Any kind of offensive success will allow the Defense to surge.

Eh. I think Keenum is the weak link for the Broncos. What Keenum does, though, is that he provides protection for the Broncos if the Raiders and Chiefs both implode and go all-in on rebuilding. For me, Keenum locks in the Broncos to be either 2nd or 3rd place.

This division does look pretty bad, though. I think any team that isn't outright terrible has a shot at the playoffs.

 

[fightinredantz]

I know the Chargers are on paper the favorites, and if they stay healthy they could win the AFC West. I think the following will be their downfall:
1. Their WRs always seem to get injured.
2. They are missing the security blanket at the TE position. They might bring Gates back later in the season and that might help them.
3. As we saw last year if a great pass rush defense doesn't get a lead then it is hard to win. If the games are close it might work against them. They seem to always play close games and with some of the short falls they have it leave a crack that could be exploited by other teams.

The Raiders are rebuilding. If Carr plays really well the can be competitive, but I don't think the Defense is going to let them down. Mack being traded might help make them better in years to come, but not this year.

KC is going have some struggles with the young QB, and they have not been a lights out D as they have been trying to build the Offense. Andy Reid is a good coach but his teams seem to lack in pressure situations. I think they miss the what Alex Smith brought to the team last year, and will take a step backwards.

Lastly our Denver Broncos. The last 2 years we were missing only consistency and effectiveness on Offense and mostly due to the QB play. Keenum might not be the next Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but he's a competent QB and there are a plethora of weapons and depth (some of it is inexperienced or well beyond it's prime). I think the team can be as good as they want to be. I would say Steelers and Rams will be the most talented teams on the field in those games barring injuries. Those games will be played at 1 mile high and could allow them to steal a victory or too. On the flip side if the offense struggles and the coaching staff doesn't do any better then last year we could be starring at another top 10 pick, and a coaching search. I don't think the Broncos are Super Bowl contenders, but in 2015 we really shouldn't have been either. If the team goes together you never know what the season could be.

 

[fightinredantz]

Gates is back in San Diego so that will help them some even though Gates is not what he once was.

 

[randymon]

Now that preseason is over and the rosters are being finalized it's time to discuss expectations from the standpoint of the fans. The question is simple: what kind of performance do you think fans of each AFC West team will result in fans of that team, in hindsight after the season has ended, agreeing it was a good season. Naturally every fan wants their team to contend, and during the heat of the season, failure to do so will no doubt lead to frustration. But come late February, emotions tend to subside and critical thinking on a team's performance surfaces. And THAT's what this post is about. What kind of performance will it take for the fans of these teams to look back and say it was a good season?


My thoughts:


Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Champs, deep playoff run, perhaps AFCCG appearance. The Chargers are a near consensus pick to win the AFC West this year. They have a defense that, despite being a bottom feeder against the run held scoring to 4th best in the league. Their pass rush and secondary are top flight and if they shore up the run defense they are elite on that side of the ball. On offense they have a lot of play makers, but they need to put it together. This is a team that is notorious for under performing, so despite appearing to look the strongest at this point, they may come out flat and scuttle what many expect to be a good season for them. But if they put it all together they may just be one of the best in the AFC. And they've under achieved for so long I believe it's going to take a deep playoff run for Chargers fans to reflect positively on this season. They need to win the AFC West, perhaps with an 11-5 or so record, and at least reach the AFCCG. Philip Rivers is in the twilight of his career. He is a great QB and he plays opposite one of the best defenses in the league. They have a tight window where they can make a name for themselves, so simply reaching the AFCCG may not even be enough for some fans. But I think for most of them it will result in reflecting positively on this season.


Kansas City Chiefs: A finish of .500 or better, with or without playoffs. This may seem like a low bar for a team that has reached the playoffs in 4 out of 5 seasons and was over .500 in the one playoff miss. I don't know that a lot of Chiefs fans will agree with me now, but I think if the Chiefs finish 8-8 by February there will be a lot of them who look back and say it was a good season. But the key isn't necessarily the 8-8, it'll be how they get there. They are breaking in a new QB in Patrick MaHomes and while he appears to have a very high ceiling in his first year as a starter he'll probably have a low floor too. The valleys will be forgiven if he shows enough high points along the way. And he will definitely have some moments with the supporting cast he has on offense. The line is questionable but they have a lot of talent across the skill positions. MaHomes will have some ups and downs, but the bigger issue will be their defense. They don't appear to have enough on that side of the ball to ride out the roller coaster performance they're likely to get out of their offense. Opponents will likely be able to put points up against them consistently, putting pressure on a young QB to respond. It'll be frustrating to watch, but I believe once things settle down after the season has ended, and assuming MaHomes gives them enough positives to look forward to going into the future, an 8-8 finish will be considered a successful season.


Denver Broncos: A 9-7 finish with a playoff appearance. After a dismal finish in 2017 some may think expectations should be lower. But with head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat we can use that as a metric for what fans will consider successful. If he is retained, the season will likely be considered a success. If not, well that's an easy judgment to make. I believe it's going to take a minimum of a 9-7 record and a playoff appearance for VJ to keep his job. That would show tremendous improvement over last year. If the Broncos go 9-7 and fail to reach the playoffs I am willing to bet VJ is gone: this team doesn't spend a lot of time trying to recover sunk costs (see Jon Fox after a 12-4 finish in 2014.) Add to it the Broncos still have a tremendous amount of talent on defense, fueling expectations for a drastic turnaround from last year. A revamped offense has fans believing they'll at least be functional on that side of the ball, something they haven't seen since Manning retired. There are a lot of fans that see the offense as capable of putting up 23-24 PPG and playing complementary football with this defense. If that comes to fruition the Broncos can be the next "worst to first" story. But if they land somewhere in between, say...reaching the playoffs as a wild card, I think most fans will consider it a successful season.


Oakland Raiders: A 7-9 finish. Just don't embarrass us. Too much. The Raiders set a record for successive seasons in double digit losses. They broke that up with a pair of 8-8 finishes in 2010 and 2011, then regressed once again. 2015 saw them reach 7-9 before things came together for a 12-4 run in 2016. Then they were back to 6-10 last year. Gruden is back and he has overhauled the roster, with his latest accomplishment being the moving of the team's best player in Mack to the Bears. Even QB Derrick Carr couldn't believe it. The Raiders defense was exploitable with Mack. Without him? Gruden's offense is going to need to score a lot of points. But breaking in a new and complex system is going to make that challenging at times, especially in the AFC West where 4 of their games are coming against two extremely good defenses in the Chargers and Broncos. This team may well be a dumpster fire on the level of Art Shell's return to Oakland. Given all the upheaval and system changes I think if the Raiders manage a 7-9 finish and minimize the number of blowout losses suffered Raiders fans will look back and breathe a sigh of relief.


AFC West fans, what say you?

This looks like same one from last year.

 

[iknowftbll]

This looks like same one from last year.

Here’s last year’s:

AFC West Teams: What makes a successful 2017?

Looks wildly different for the whole division.

Any analysis of your own you’d like to add?

 

[randymon]

I was busting your chops and yeah, I got some thoughts....Agree with whoever said 9-7 won't make playoffs. I look at which team " this year " has the best Qb and that's Rivers. So I can see Mahomie struggle this year,Carr could play well but the defense will be Raiders downfall, Broncos is all about Case and run game whether they win even 9 games. SD, if the injury bug doesn't devastate them again will win a potentially unremarkable AFC West . No wildcard from this division IMO. Either win division or go home IMHO

 

[CEH]

Denver needs to start fast and pull a shananhan and back into the playoffs
However unlike the shananhan post Elway teams , this one can play defense

 

[iknowftbll]

This writer at Arrowhead Addict expects a 10-6 season from the Chiefs:

Game-by-game predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs’ season

I will see writers for other AFC West teams have posted similar articles.

 

[fightinredantz]

Part of this is the homerism that beat writers have to have. Can you imagine the excitement the fan base would feel if they read that their hometown team was going to be 6-10? Unless you live in Cleveland most other places would be up in arms. They try to drive up excitement.

That being said I think the AFC West is completely up in the air. I think 3 teams could win the division, Denver, Kansas City, and Los Angeles. All 3 have major question marks, but all 3 could be very good. We are on the cusp of starting to find out. I am not buying what the Raiders are doing. I think they are in a rebuild mode, not a complete blow it up and start over, but they are appearing to retool which will sacrifice this season in my mind.

 

[iknowftbll]

I actually think a prediction of 10-6 is reasonable in the context of coming from a Chiefs fan/writer. They’ve been good ever since Reid arrived and even though they don’t appear to have a good defense, the offense has the tools to be great any given week. I picked them to go 7-9 but the difference between 7-9 and 10-6 can sometimes be razor thin.

 

[CEH]

I actually think a prediction of 10-6 is reasonable in the context of coming from a Chiefs fan/writer. They’ve been good ever since Reid arrived and even though they don’t appear to have a good defense, the offense has the tools to be great any given week. I picked them to go 7-9 but the difference between 7-9 and 10-6 can sometimes be razor thin.

If Chiefs go 3-3 in the first 6 games I think they will win the AFCW

 

[fightinredantz]

I actually think a prediction of 10-6 is reasonable in the context of coming from a Chiefs fan/writer. They’ve been good ever since Reid arrived and even though they don’t appear to have a good defense, the offense has the tools to be great any given week. I picked them to go 7-9 but the difference between 7-9 and 10-6 can sometimes be razor thin.

Agreed. I think the Watkins signing will hurt them a bit as they tied up a lot of money in a guy that just can't stay healthy. Kelce and Hunt are great. I think Maholms will make big plays for both teams this year. He put some tape out there last year that allowed teams to study. I think he probably has improved, but any first year starter will have ups and downs.

I think 10-6 is pretty optimistic, but at the same time I can see how he came up with it going through the schedule.