A shutdown closer might be worth 0.8 of a win over a season

[MilkSpiller22]

They wouldn't necessarily have to pitch more innings though. For instance, in my sim league there are lots of teams that use their best relief pitchers in non-standard ways in an attempt to get more value from them, but those pitchers are restricted by their real life inning totals in our league so they still end up pitching a similar number of innings to what they did while "closing" in real life.

Of course they would.... How often do they go more than one inning now?? when was the last time they needed to get more than 4 outs for a save??

the earlier they go in, the less willing managers will be to take them out especially if they are doing well, so if the pitcher comes in the 7th inning, they will pitch for however long they are still strong... A manager will never take out their best pitcher when they are still their best pitcher...

so that would mean they will pitch longer IN single games... so either they will play significantly less GAMES or they will have more innings..

and that brings me back to questioning what is high leverage, if it threatens playing as many games?? is a manager now supposed to weigh the importance of the game itself first??

 

[Omar 382]

Of course they would.... How often do they go more than one inning now?? when was the last time they needed to get more than 4 outs for a save??

the earlier they go in, the less willing managers will be to take them out especially if they are doing well, so if the pitcher comes in the 7th inning, they will pitch for however long they are still strong... A manager will never take out their best pitcher when they are still their best pitcher...

so that would mean they will pitch longer IN single games... so either they will play significantly less GAMES or they will have more innings..

and that brings me back to questioning what is high leverage, if it threatens playing as many games?? is a manager now supposed to weigh the importance of the game itself first??

I'm not referring to the actual game per se, rather the context of each individual game.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Of course they would.... How often do they go more than one inning now?? when was the last time they needed to get more than 4 outs for a save??

the earlier they go in, the less willing managers will be to take them out especially if they are doing well, so if the pitcher comes in the 7th inning, they will pitch for however long they are still strong... A manager will never take out their best pitcher when they are still their best pitcher...

so that would mean they will pitch longer IN single games... so either they will play significantly less GAMES or they will have more innings..

and that brings me back to questioning what is high leverage, if it threatens playing as many games?? is a manager now supposed to weigh the importance of the game itself first??

Don't we see this all the time in extra inning games? While this is anwcdotal I feel like I have seen tons of games where a closer came into a tie game, pitched the 9th and then was replaced for the 10th.

The problem, as you hinted at, is that bringing in the ace reliever to face the 2-3-4 hitters with two men on in the 7th and leaving someone else to throw to the bottom of the order in the 9th is that the ace reliever won't get the save. But that's not really a team problem or a "value on the field" problem of course.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I'm not referring to the actual game per se, rather the context of each individual game.

yes, but it is all connected... if the RP are going to pitch more per game, then would there value be different?? worse?? better?? IDK... But most elite relievers have one or 2 ELITE pitches, the more they pitch in game are they more likely to be exposed?? and if they play less games, then they affect less games... isn't the purpose of an elite closer that quality is just as important as quantity???

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Don't we see this all the time in extra inning games? While this is anwcdotal I feel like I have seen tons of games where a closer came into a tie game, pitched the 9th and then was replaced for the 10th.

The problem, as you hinted at, is that bringing in the ace reliever to face the 2-3-4 hitters with two men on in the 7th and leaving someone else to throw to the bottom of the order in the 9th is that the ace reliever won't get the save. But that's not really a team problem or a "value on the field" problem of course.

most of those are blown saves though, which by definition means the elite closer was not elite that day...

 

[Omar 382]

yes, but it is all connected... if the RP are going to pitch more per game, then would there value be different?? worse?? better?? IDK... But most elite relievers have one or 2 ELITE pitches, the more they pitch in game are they more likely to be exposed?? and if they play less games, then they affect less games... isn't the purpose of an elite closer that quality is just as important as quantity???

I never said explicitly that they need to pitch more. I said they need to stop facing the 6-7-8 in a 5-2 ball game in the 9th inning. They should face the 3-4-5 in the 7th inning when the game is 2-2.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I never said explicitly that they need to pitch more. I said they need to stop facing the 6-7-8 in a 5-2 ball game in the 9th inning. They should face the 3-4-5 in the 7th inning when the game is 2-2.

but i think that is the same...

 

[Omar 382]

With the whole third time through the order thing, I wouldn't be opposed to limiting each pitcher (including the starter) to 2 or 3 innings, or; one time through the order.

 

[DragonfromTO]

most of those are blown saves though, which by definition means the elite closer was not elite that day...

I specifically said tie games though. Managers do it the way I described in tie games at home (where they don't have the crutch of saving him for a save situation) all the time. Closer pitches the top of the 9th, someone else starts the 10th.

 

[Omar 382]

but i think that is the same...

How so? Not every game is close in the 6th or 7th inning. But every time a team is up by three runs in the 9th, a certain pitcher is beckoned to come in.

 

[Omar 382]

My (flawed and rudimentary) script above is talking specifically about wins added from closers in relation to one-run games. I have a feeling that if managers religiously utilized that wOBA run-expectancy chart when managing their bullpens, the amount of one-run wins would increase (a hypothesis that we don't (so far as I know) have the data to test upon).

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I specifically said tie games though. Managers do it the way I described in tie games at home (where they don't have the crutch of saving him for a save situation) all the time. Closer pitches the top of the 9th, someone else starts the 10th.

sorry, reading comprehension got in the way...LOL...

i do wonder how often your scenario is compared to how often they pitch more than one inning... not sure if this is even researchable...

 

[JohnU]

the earlier they go in, the less willing managers will be to take them out especially if they are doing well, so if the pitcher comes in the 7th inning, they will pitch for however long they are still strong... A manager will never take out their best pitcher when they are still their best pitcher...

The double-switch option has to apply here in NL games.

 

[obxyankeefan]

Just using 2015 stats (so a small sample size) 37 pitchers had 10 or more saves. Of those Wade Davis had the highest WAR at 3.4, the Average WAR was 1.4, and 5 pitchers were more than 1 WAR higher than the average.

W Davis 3.4
Chapman 2.7
Famila 2.7
Rosenthal 2.6
Britton 2.5
Miller 2.3
C Smith 2.3
Ramos 2.1
Ziegler 2.1
Rondon 2.1


using 1.4 as the average then depending on your defination of a top closer determines your value.

Top 10% or top 3 closers value is 1.53 WAR over average
Top 5 closers value is 1.38 WAR over average
Top 20% or top 6 value is 1.3 WAR over average
top 10 value is 1.08 WAR over average

Changing those numbers to closers who had 20 or more saves changes the average to 1.5 of the 28 pitchers that qualify

top 10% or top 3 value is 1.17 over WAR average
top 5 value is 1.06 over WAR over average
top 20% or top 6 value is .98 WAR over average
Top 10 value is .78 WAR over average


I would say that a top closer is worth around 1 to 1.1 WAR over the league average closers. Slighty more than what the OP got but still not that much.

 

[Omar 382]

Just using 2015 stats (so a small sample size) 37 pitchers had 10 or more saves. Of those Wade Davis had the highest WAR at 3.4, the Average WAR was 1.4, and 5 pitchers were more than 1 WAR higher than the average.

W Davis 3.4
Chapman 2.7
Famila 2.7
Rosenthal 2.6
Britton 2.5
Miller 2.3
C Smith 2.3
Ramos 2.1
Ziegler 2.1
Rondon 2.1


using 1.4 as the average then depending on your defination of a top closer determines your value.

Top 10% or top 3 closers value is 1.53 WAR over average
Top 5 closers value is 1.38 WAR over average
Top 20% or top 6 value is 1.3 WAR over average
top 10 value is 1.08 WAR over average

Changing those numbers to closers who had 20 or more saves changes the average to 1.5 of the 28 pitchers that qualify

top 10% or top 3 value is 1.17 over WAR average
top 5 value is 1.06 over WAR over average
top 20% or top 6 value is .98 WAR over average
Top 10 value is .78 WAR over average


I would say that a top closer is worth around 1 to 1.1 WAR over the league average closers. Slighty more than what the OP got but still not that much.

I didn't look at what you did fully, but two things:

1. Way too small of a sample size

2. My analysis was looking specifically as closer's contributions relative to one run wins

 

[obxyankeefan]

I didn't look at what you did fully, but two things:

1. Way too small of a sample size

2. My analysis was looking specifically as closer's contributions relative to one run wins

1. I agree it is a small sample, but closers are going to be a small group each year.

2. I don't have the time to go over every game to determine what happened in every 1 run game in the ninth or later.

 

[Omar 382]

I wasn't trying to be a dick.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I wasn't trying to be a dick.

In your research did you include total team 1 run games??

 

[obxyankeefan]

I wasn't trying to be a dick.

Didn't take it that way. Just answering your post

 

[Omar 382]

In your research did you include total team 1 run games??

What?