Skins off-season per Ben Standing

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A bye week that fell midway through the season makes for a perfect time to evaluate the Washington Football Team. Just not this year.

Ron Rivera’s team isn’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason or the NFC East title. The players and coaches will ideally tackle each of the remaining nine games with urgency, but the 2-6 start has offered little reason to think a major turnaround lurks. Therefore, the true impetus for any roster evaluation is beyond this season.

We know there’s a gargantuan hole at quarterback with significant obstacles ahead, including limited options in the draft and free agency. But what are Washington’s other strengths and weaknesses?

Some of those scenarios will shift during the remaining games because of injury, struggles or growth. Maybe the positive developments translate into a bushel of wins, starting with the Week 10 return against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Until then, let’s consider what looms for Rivera’s third season in charge rather than his frustrating second chapter and examine the situations he’ll face and the decisions to be made among the players on the 53-man roster and injured reserve.

The salary cap

Washington is projected to have $62.4 million available, per Over The Cap, based on the established $208.2 million cap. That ranks sixth. That’s not even including the $11.1 million it surely rolls over from this season, or the savings that would follow the release of safety Landon Collins or others.

“I would say the Washington Football Team is in one of the better situations in the NFL going forward,” said Brad Spielberger, salary-cap analyst for Pro Football Focus and Over The Cap.

There are roughly 20 players on the active roster entering free agency, but 17 of the 22 starters will remain under contract. Some might see that as a negative considering the record, but additions at key spots could spark more from the holdovers.

The draft

Washington, on pace for a top-10 selection, holds one pick in each round except the fifth. That went to the Eagles last season in the trade that led to Washington drafting long-snapper Camaron Cheeseman in April.

 

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Quarterback

Under contract: Taylor Heinicke

Free agents: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Allen

There’s a reasonable chance that no more than one of the three quarterbacks returns next season. That Heinicke is on the books for only a $500,000 dead-cap number means any scenario is possible, though he’s the favorite to return because he’s starting and because of the size of his contract. Allen warrants an opportunity this season, especially if Fitzpatrick’s right hip injury from Week 1 — his follow-up MRI is pending — keeps him sidelined indefinitely.

Washington could add a backup, or at most a spot starter, if a first-round pick needs time to develop. Rivera is not a fan of starting rookie quarterbacks who can’t alter the trajectory of the franchise like he had in Carolina with Cam Newton. It doesn’t appear that anyone has those qualities six months before the draft, but Washington is doing its homework.

 

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The veteran market feels like Washington’s ideal path, especially if the Rivera era opens with consecutive losing seasons. The problem is the projected free-agent scene is headlined by players who are not deemed to be significant upgrades.

Perhaps Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson or some other established starter becomes available and shows an interest in Washington. Considering everything happening with the team, good luck with that.

Running back

Under contract: Antonio Gibson, Jaret Patterson

Free agent: J.D. McKissic

Even if McKissic returns, Washington should consider adding depth. It’s not missing Peyton Barber, who was a limited threat last season, but it has a need for another tough runner. Gibson ranks among the top offensive playmakers at any position, but he’s also leaving yards on the field.

 

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Though Gibson has not missed a game this season, a lingering stress fracture in one of his shins plays a part in his recent dip in production and snaps. He missed two games last season with a toe injury, and his 1.95 yards after contact ranked third worst last season among running backs with at least 100 carries, according to Football Outsiders. That average has dipped to 1.795 this season, 20th among the 24 backs with at least 75 carries.

Patterson will have a chance to audition over the remaining nine games. McKissic’s receiving prowess has proven clutch and will be until Gibson shows steadier form. Half of Gibson’s 144 receiving yards this season came on one 73-yard reception.

Wide receiver

Under contract: Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Dax Milne

Free agents: Adam Humphries, Cam Sims, DeAndre Carter, Antonio Gandy-Golden

We can safely assume the groin injury that has cost Samuel all but 30 snaps this season heals in the spring. Pairing him with McLaurin, who is eligible to sign an extension during the offseason, gives Washington a potentially dynamic combination. Adding help wouldn’t hurt, and Spielberger views wide receiver and tight end as the strengths of the free-agent class.

Spielberger suggested the contract the Giants gave Kenny Golladay last offseason — a four-year, $72 million extension with $40 million in guarantees — is a good comparison for what McLaurin could receive. Factoring in the two years remaining on Samuel’s three-year, $34.5 million contract probably eliminates Washington from adding elite free agents such as Davante Adams and Allen Robinson. The next tier might include Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown and Christian Kirk.

“Samuel’s deal and (tight end) Logan Thomas’ deal and the pending deal for Terry McLaurin, I am not certain they would be prohibitive of another move at receiver or tight end,” Spielberger said.

Brown’s skills suggest his initial wobbles are part of the learning curve as the third-round pick is dealing with a knee injury. He could start outside in three-receiver sets next season with Samuel in the slot — a place where Milne might garner snaps.

The unit lacks size among its top targets unless Sims, Gandy-Golden or an addition brings that element. Carter’s abilities in the return game, along with his receiving chops, make him a free agent to retain over Humphries at this point.

Tight end

Under contract: Logan Thomas, John Bates, Sammis Reyes

Free agent: Ricky Seals-Jones

Thomas isn’t Washington’s top player, but he is among its most indispensable. Seals-Jones has offered help where none was expected, but that’s not the same as being a threat defenses must consider. The issue is neither Bates nor Reyes has shown much. That’s fine for now, but by the end of the season, one of them should offer some hope as a receiver in addition to blocking so they can be considered the primary backup and a passable starter if needed. Thomas is signed through 2023, but his cap hit rises to $8.45 million that year.

Washington might need to keep four tight ends again if it wants the two inexperienced players around. That’s doable — Seals-Jones could return for around the minimum $990,000 salary for a player with six or fewer accumulated seasons — but doing so takes away a roster spot.

The free-agent class includes Zach Ertz, C.J. Uzomah and Evan Engram.

Offensive line

Under contract: Tackles Sam Cosmi and Saahdiq Charles, guards Wes Schweitzer and Ereck Flowers, center Chase Roullier

Free agents: Tackles Charles Leno Jr., Cornelius Lucas and David Steinmetz, guard Brandon Scherff, centers Tyler Larsen and Keith Ismael

Everyone figured the play from the line would be Washington’s strength this season, just not the offensive side of the line. According to ESPN, Roullier and Schweitzer led their respective positions in run-blocking win-rate percentage entering Week 9, and Leno ranked third among tackles in pass blocking with Flowers among the top 10 in both categories. That’s not even counting Cosmi’s solid showing before the second-round rookie missed three games with an ankle injury.

Scherff, who last season became Washington’s first All-Pro selection since 1996, has upside. Yet his combination of injuries — he’s missed 22 of 72 games since 2017, including the past four — and the two sides’ inability to strike a long-term contract strongly suggests he’ll play elsewhere next season.

Spielberger doesn’t see a mega deal out there for Leno — “He was a cap casualty this past offseason by Chicago for a reason,” he said — but by retaining him, Washington could take left tackle off its list of needs.

Even re-signing Leno for an average of $11.5 million per season — that’s the average salary for Duane Brown, the 17th highest-paid offensive tackle — means Washington would spend less than Scherff’s $18.04 million salary for this season on its starting left tackle and right guard as Schweitzer’s figure is $4.49 million.

Surgery for injuries related to a broken fibula ended Roullier’s season, but he is expected back for the start of next season. Retaining Lucas as the swing tackle is important because Charles has yet to prove he’s viable.

 

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Defensive line

Under contract: Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, Matt Ioannidis, James Smith-Williams, Casey Toohill, Shaka Toney

Free agent: Tim Settle

Putting aside the underwhelming vibe through eight games, the defensive line is extremely talented. It’s also on the verge of becoming expensive. Payne will enter the fifth year of his contract, which is a team option, and Sweat could begin extension talks next year. Any argument for Washington extending both after it paid Allen this summer and knows Young is eligible for a new deal in 2023 centers on the belief that the defensive line is more than just potentially dominating.

Using Payne or Sweat as part of any trade for a quarterback makes sense. The clock starts ticking this offseason. That Ioannidis remains under contract through next season and retaining Settle would not break the bank suggests moving Payne is the safer path, but there’s merit in breaking up the combination of Sweat and Young if Rivera’s concerns over their lack of consistent effort remain.

With Sweat out with a jaw injury, Smith-Williams and Toohill have at least the next four weeks to show they can produce when needed. Otherwise, depth becomes an offseason need.

Linebacker

Under contract: Cole Holcomb, Jamin Davis, Khaleke Hudson

Free agents: Jon Bostic, Jared Norris, David Mayo, Jordan Kunaszyk

Even if Davis shines over the second half of his rookie season — he’s made strides recently — Washington has a significant need for a viable third linebacker in 4-3 looks. If the first-round pick remains a question, Washington could be looking at another serious investment at the position before next season.

Washington needs viable depth in case of injury — an issue this season — and possibly a challenger to Holcomb in sub-packages. That’s apparently not Hudson, who has played 13 snaps on defense even after Bostic’s season-ending injury. Bostic, a free agent and liability in coverage, should not be in the plans.

Cornerback

Under contract: Kendall Fuller, William Jackson III, Benjamin St-Juste

Free agents: Darryl Roberts, Torry McTyer, Troy Apke, Danny Johnson, Corn Elder

Washington allows a league-high 101.5 yards to No. 1 receivers and ranks last by a wide margin in DVOA against No. 2 receivers, per Football Outsiders. Determining the hierarchy at wide receiver for a given team, game or play is subjective, but teams remain productive throwing against Washington’s secondary.

Jackson signed a lucrative three-year contract in March and has been a disappointment. Washington must determine how it can maximize the abilities of a player who is more comfortable in man coverage but is playing for a coordinator who primarily uses zone.

St-Juste’s length and size are intriguing, but the rookie needs to develop his ball skills before Washington can feel comfortable with starting him outside so Fuller can play mostly inside. The third-round pick is the only player at the position with upside behind the two well-paid veterans. LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. and Cincinnati’s Ahmad Gardner are among the standouts at cornerback in a loaded draft class.

Safety

Under contract: Landon Collins, Kam Curl, Deshazor Everett, Darrick Forrest

Free agent: Bobby McCain

Curl is the lone safety who has a decently high ceiling and it’s still not clear where he’ll play regularly. Rivera often touts McCain, but Washington would ideally find a better center fielder. Collins is an obvious salary-cap cut; he has a $9.6 million dead-cap hit, but Washington can accrue $6.6 million in savings with a pre-June 1 release. It can afford his salary, but Collins remains weak in coverage.

Everett is primarily a special-teams contributor, and Forrest, a fifth-round pick in April, has been injured and has not yet played. Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton joins Stingley as defensive backs who could be among the top five picks.

Special teams

Under contract: Punter Tress Way; long snapper Camaron Cheeseman

Free agent: Chris Blewitt

Washington traded up to draft a long snapper in April. Therefore, the possibility the team drafts a kicker cannot be ignored.