A shutdown closer might be worth 0.8 of a win over a season

[Omar 382]

Never underestimate the power of the safety net... If you use up your best BP pitcher early, you have lesser pitchers pitching later and you have no safety net...

You can not say i want my "closer" to pitch the inning of highest leverage, because that is all hindsight... If you want to have him pitch on first high leverage, then how will you define high leverage?? Will it be the same vs different teams?? Forget the fact that pitchers are the biggest creatures of habit and most superstitious in sports...



Also, you don't realize how overused they would be if managers put them in high leverage times instead of the end...

What manager would take his BEST BP pitcher out of the game as long as he can get an out?? what this tells me is that these pitchers would go 2 innings more often and maybe even longer... And what that means is that they will NEED more off days...

This would help.....

Introducing the Batter-Specific Run-Expectancy Tool | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[uncfan103]

Never underestimate the power of the safety net... If you use up your best BP pitcher early, you have lesser pitchers pitching later and you have no safety net...

You can not say i want my "closer" to pitch the inning of highest leverage, because that is all hindsight... If you want to have him pitch on first high leverage, then how will you define high leverage?? Will it be the same vs different teams?? Forget the fact that pitchers are the biggest creatures of habit and most superstitious in sports...



Also, you don't realize how overused they would be if managers put them in high leverage times instead of the end...

What manager would take his BEST BP pitcher out of the game as long as he can get an out?? what this tells me is that these pitchers would go 2 innings more often and maybe even longer... And what that means is that they will NEED more off days...

The bottom line is you pitch you best available pitcher during the more dangerous part of the game. Your best reliever is being wasted if you put him in to get three outs with a two run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning against the 6-7-8 hitter. And closers still need more off days. Why not get the most out of the innings they're going to pitch?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The bottom line is you pitch you best available pitcher during the more dangerous part of the game. Your best reliever is being wasted if you put him in to get three outs with a two run lead in the bottom of the ninth inning against the 6-7-8 hitter. And closers still need more off days. Why not get the most out of the innings they're going to pitch?

I really don't disagree with you at all...

But i do wonder if RP were used this way, how often they would pitch and how many innings more per game... I feel like this is closer to how relievers were used pre 1990s, where many reached 100 innings per season... I just don't think with how baseball fears the injury so much that teams would want their overpaid relievers to pitch so much... I think that might be the biggest reason baseball exaggerated the importance of the SAVE stat, and now the HOLD stat as well...

 

[da55bums]

Do you have anything quantifiable to back it up, or just a "hunch"?

Do you really think relievers are making tons of money because they are pretty? There is solid reasons why RP are making more moeny and are more important. Lets see for 1 baseball expansion, watered down starting pitching that could be effective in the 7th, 8th and 9th.

There isn't any "hunches" baseball evolved because it was a better way to pitching to be at a high level for 9 innings.

Welcome to the 21st century game.


All Innings Are Not Created Equal: How Run-Scoring Varies By Inning

 

[Omar 382]

Do you really think relievers are making tons of money because they are pretty? There is solid reasons why RP are making more moeny and are more important. Lets see for 1 baseball expansion, watered down starting pitching that could be effective in the 7th, 8th and 9th.

There isn't any "hunches" baseball evolved because it was a better way to pitching to be at a high level for 9 innings.

Welcome to the 21st century game.


All Innings Are Not Created Equal: How Run-Scoring Varies By Inning

lol at your article. Have you ever heard of multicollinearity? How about B causes A? C causes B and A? The relationship is coincidental?

 

[Villain]

So... you don't like the WAR figures they give out to relievers?

 

[da55bums]

Evolution of the closer: How we got here

 

[da55bums]

I am sure though that your smarter than everyone in baseball, lets do away with the closers.

 

[Omar 382]

I am sure though that your smarter than everyone in baseball, lets do away with the closers.

Not everyone- but certainly you

 

[Omar 382]

So... you don't like the WAR figures they give out to relievers?

That's wins above replacement. This is wins above an average relief pitcher (say a 3.35 ERA or so)

 

[Villain]

That's wins above replacement. This is wins above an average relief pitcher (say a 3.35 ERA or so)

So you're saying that there's only an eight-tenths of a win difference between average and elite? Or above-average and elite? Good and very good?

 

[Omar 382]

So you're saying that there's only an eight-tenths of a win difference between average and elite? Or above-average and elite? Good and very good?

For relievers, their value is small, so yes. If you look at first baseman, catcher, pitcher, or literally any other pitcher, there is a much larger gap.

 

[Omar 382]

2016 Christopher Devenski: 39 IP, 0.92/2.46/3.98 (ERA/FIP/xFIP), 0.8 WAR

2016 Drew Storen: 32 IP, 5.63/4.58/4.28 (ERA/FIP/xFIP), 0.0 WAR

 

[DragonfromTO]

I really don't disagree with you at all...

But i do wonder if RP were used this way, how often they would pitch and how many innings more per game... I feel like this is closer to how relievers were used pre 1990s, where many reached 100 innings per season... I just don't think with how baseball fears the injury so much that teams would want their overpaid relievers to pitch so much... I think that might be the biggest reason baseball exaggerated the importance of the SAVE stat, and now the HOLD stat as well...

They wouldn't necessarily have to pitch more innings though. For instance, in my sim league there are lots of teams that use their best relief pitchers in non-standard ways in an attempt to get more value from them, but those pitchers are restricted by their real life inning totals in our league so they still end up pitching a similar number of innings to what they did while "closing" in real life.

 

[Villain]

Never underestimate the power of the safety net... If you use up your best BP pitcher early, you have lesser pitchers pitching later and you have no safety net...

You can not say i want my "closer" to pitch the inning of highest leverage, because that is all hindsight... If you want to have him pitch on first high leverage, then how will you define high leverage?? Will it be the same vs different teams?? Forget the fact that pitchers are the biggest creatures of habit and most superstitious in sports...



Also, you don't realize how overused they would be if managers put them in high leverage times instead of the end...

What manager would take his BEST BP pitcher out of the game as long as he can get an out?? what this tells me is that these pitchers would go 2 innings more often and maybe even longer... And what that means is that they will NEED more off days...

Having your best pitcher go through the heart of the heart in the 8th rather than wait for the 9th because he's labelled a closer is bad management in my opinion. I've long been of the opinion that the closer label is a bad one, saves are not good stats, and that a better philosophy is that of the "bullpen ace" to sit down the toughest hitters, rather than only using your best reliever to pitch with a lead in the 9th inning.

 

[Villain]

For relievers, their value is small, so yes. If you look at first baseman, catcher, pitcher, or literally any other pitcher, there is a much larger gap.

I feel that that is reflected in the contracts and trade value at the respected positions. Chapman or Kimbrel or Jansen will never come out of Free Agency with a gap in pay compared to what a guy like Cano got over, say, a Ben Zobrist deal. Cano being the elitist of 2B at the time, Zobrist being above-average and older.

Not really sure what new ground is being tread here. Obviously there are some doofuses in this thread who are having strawman arguments with you because they didn't take the time to understand your thesis, but yeah, look at what the markets for elite anyone have been. I think baseball agrees with you.

Relief pitchers, in general, are the lowest on the totem pole in terms of value and the most readily replaced.

 

[Omar 382]

I feel that that is reflected in the contracts and trade value at the respected positions. Chapman or Kimbrel or Jansen will never come out of Free Agency with a gap in pay compared to what a guy like Cano got over, say, a Ben Zobrist deal. Cano being the elitist of 2B at the time, Zobrist being above-average and older.

Not really sure what new ground is being tread here. Obviously there are some doofuses in this thread who are having strawman arguments with you because they didn't take the time to understand your thesis, but yeah, look at what the markets for elite anyone have been. I think baseball agrees with you.

Relief pitchers, in general, are the lowest on the totem pole in terms of value and the most readily replaced.

Yes, of course nothing revolutionary. Just mildly interesting. If it WAS revolutionary, I wouldn't be posting it here; I'd be on the phone with your man Dave Cameron....

 

[Villain]

What happens if you have two or three of them in succession? Just curious if it's a number that we wouldn't expect.

2.4 more wins.

I've attached my methodology and shown all work:

Spoiler

When N equals number of closers, WAARP equals Wins above average relief pitcher, and ECW equals Elite Closer Wins...

N x WAARP = ECW

3 x 0.8 = ECW

2.4 = ECW

 

[Omar 382]

2.4 more wins.

I've attached my methodology and shown all work:

Spoiler

When N equals number of closers, WAARP equals Wins above average relief pitcher, and ECW equals Elite Closer Wins...

N x WAARP = ECW

3 x 0.8 = ECW

2.4 = ECW

I'm sure you're joking, but it really wouldn't work that way of course

 

[Villain]

I'm sure you're joking, but it really wouldn't work that way of course

Everyone knows you can't have .4 of a win! Of course I'm joking!

But yeah, I think you're onto something that a lot of fans aren't. It's a topic that I run into a lot when I talk to Dodgers fans who stick groan about how much they miss Zack Greinke. Yes, he'd make this team better, but by diversifying the "Greinke Budget" over hopefully above-average depth, you get a safer chance to win should any one of the "above average" contributors get hurt, underperform, etc.