A shutdown closer might be worth 0.8 of a win over a season

[Omar 382]

Closers are commonly a sore spot for sabermetricians. Most people find them misused and underused. But given the current method of use for a closer, just how important is a good one?

I looked at 2011, because that year is interesting (or painful) for baseball fans, with a certain piece of shit blowing a save in the last game of the season for the Red Sox. To evaluate closers, I used the Pythagorean formula's estimates versus the actual records of teams. I then singled out closers with 50 games finished and an ERA below 2.50. Kind of arbitrary numbers, but I wanted to keep it simple- as those closers typically are considered "good." My output is attached.

The mean of the residuals is only slightly above zero (0.004925), but when you multiply it by 162, you get about 0.8. This means that a team with a dominant closer might add 0.8 wins to his team because of the team's success in one-run games.

I still hate the idea of "closers."

 

[Fountain City Blues]

What happens if you have two or three of them in succession? Just curious if it's a number that we wouldn't expect.

 

[Omar 382]

What happens if you have two or three of them in succession? Just curious if it's a number that we wouldn't expect.

You mean a seventh, eighth, and ninth inning shutdown guy?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

You mean a seventh, eighth, and ninth inning shutdown guy?

Sure, whatever you wish to call it. Relief ace, multiple closers, whatever.

 

[Omar 382]

I just looked at all the pitchers who meet the requirements, and there's 211 pitchers in the history of MLB. The sample size would be far too small to have three on the same team at the same time.

 

[Omar 382]

playerID yearID teamID
14207 kindeel01 1953 BOS
16207 arroylu01 1961 NYA
16568 facero01 1962 PIT
16733 radatdi01 1962 BOS
16998 millest01 1963 BAL
17045 radatdi01 1963 BOS
17276 klinero01 1964 WS2
17368 radatdi01 1964 BOS
17453 wilheho01 1964 CHA
17548 fisheed02 1965 CHA
17655 millest01 1965 BAL
17790 akerja01 1966 KC1
18132 abernte02 1967 CIN
18475 abernte02 1968 CIN
18700 reganph01 1968 CHN
19057 perraro01 1969 MIN
19411 mcdanli01 1970 NYA
19477 perraro01 1970 MIN
19885 sandeke01 1971 ML4
19992 carrocl02 1972 CIN
20141 lylesp01 1972 NYA
20143 marshmi01 1972 MON
20427 giustda01 1973 PIT
20451 hillejo01 1973 DET
20779 foucast01 1974 TEX
20873 lylesp01 1974 NYA
20875 marshmi01 1974 LAN
20909 murphto02 1974 ML4
21497 eastwra01 1976 CIN
21504 fingero01 1976 OAK
21560 houghch01 1976 LAN
21613 lylesp01 1976 NYA
21892 gossari01 1977 PIT
21991 lylesp01 1977 NYA
22182 bairdo01 1978 CIN
22296 gossari01 1978 NYA
22389 marshmi01 1978 MIN
22523 tekulke01 1978 PIT
22747 kernji01 1979 TEX
22824 mongesi01 1979 CLE
22901 sambijo01 1979 HOU
22934 suttebr01 1979 CHN
23059 corbedo01 1980 MIN
23105 gossari01 1980 NYA
23815 caudibi01 1982 SEA
23874 garbege01 1982 ATL
23998 mintogr01 1982 SFN
24045 reardje01 1982 MON
24098 spillda01 1982 CLE
24319 hollaal01 1983 PHI
24390 martiti01 1983 BAL
24450 quiseda01 1983 KCA
24494 smithle02 1983 CHN
24519 tekulke01 1983 PIT
24725 hernawi01 1984 DET
24860 righeda01 1984 NYA
24929 suttebr01 1984 SLN
25164 jamesbo01 1985 CHA
25243 mooredo01 1985 CAL
25281 quiseda01 1985 KCA
25498 clearma01 1986 ML4
25753 righeda01 1986 NYA
25866 worreto01 1986 SLN
26048 henketo01 1987 TOR
26440 davisma01 1988 SDN
26460 eckerde01 1988 OAK
26475 francjo01 1988 CIN
26520 hennemi01 1988 DET
26683 reardje01 1988 MIN
26903 davisma01 1989 SDN
26995 henketo01 1989 TOR
27031 jonesdo01 1989 CLE
27129 olsongr01 1989 BAL
27149 plesada01 1989 ML4
27183 russeje01 1989 TEX
27418 eckerde01 1990 OAK
27490 henketo01 1990 TOR
27616 montgje01 1990 KCA
27627 myersra01 1990 CIN
27647 olsongr01 1990 BAL
27763 thigpbo01 1990 CHA
27816 aguilri01 1991 MIN
28013 harvebr01 1991 CAL
28246 smithle02 1991 SLN
28297 willimi02 1991 PHI
28429 eckerde01 1992 OAK
28541 jonesdo01 1992 HOU
28606 montgje01 1992 KCA
28628 olinst01 1992 CLE
28631 olsongr01 1992 BAL
28815 beckro01 1993 SFN
28993 harvebr01 1993 FLO
29007 hernaro01 1993 CHA
29133 montgje01 1993 KCA
29304 warddu01 1993 TOR
29315 wettejo01 1993 MON
30190 mesajo01 1995 CLE
30448 worreto01 1995 LAN
30518 brantje01 1996 CIN
30670 hernaro01 1996 CHA
30676 hoffmtr01 1996 SDN
30829 nenro01 1996 FLO
30859 percitr01 1996 CAL
31310 jonesdo01 1997 ML4
31420 myersra01 1997 BAL
31491 riverma01 1997 NYA
31526 shawje01 1997 CIN
31611 wettejo01 1997 TEX
31868 hoffmtr01 1998 SDN
31879 jacksmi02 1998 CLE
32004 nenro01 1998 SFN
32193 urbinug01 1998 MON
32229 wettejo01 1998 TEX
32500 hoffmtr01 1999 SDN
32731 riverma01 1999 NYA
32735 rockejo01 1999 ATL
32849 wagnebi02 1999 HOU
33301 nenro01 2000 SFN
33755 foulkke01 2001 CHA
33927 mesajo01 2001 PHI
34062 riverma01 2001 NYA
34196 wickmbo01 2001 CLE
34228 zimmeje02 2001 TEX
34272 benitar01 2002 NYN
34420 gagneer01 2002 LAN
34484 isrinja01 2002 SLN
34504 juliojo01 2002 BAL
34514 kimby01 2002 ARI
34623 nenro01 2002 SFN
35079 foulkke01 2003 OAK
35087 gagneer01 2003 LAN
35388 riverma01 2003 NYA
35444 smoltjo01 2003 ATL
35511 wagnebi02 2003 HOU
35614 benitar01 2004 FLO
35688 cordefr01 2004 TEX
35774 foulkke01 2004 BOS
35785 gagneer01 2004 LAN
35859 hoffmtr01 2004 SDN
35998 nathajo01 2004 MIN
36083 riverma01 2004 NYA
36370 cordech01 2005 WAS
36532 isrinja01 2005 SLN
36545 jonesto02 2005 FLO
36579 lidgebr01 2005 HOU
36736 riverma01 2005 NYA
36748 ryanbj01 2005 BAL
36822 turnbde01 2005 MIL
36842 wagnebi02 2005 PHI
36867 wickmbo01 2005 CLE
37331 nathajo01 2006 MIN
37384 putzjj01 2006 SEA
37409 riverma01 2006 NYA
37416 rodrifr03 2006 LAA
37426 ryanbj01 2006 TOR
37538 wagnebi02 2006 NYN
37884 isrinja01 2007 SLN
38043 nathajo01 2007 MIN
38069 papeljo01 2007 BOS
38103 putzjj01 2007 SEA
38150 saitota01 2007 LAN
38657 lidgebr01 2008 PHI
38751 nathajo01 2008 MIN
38780 papeljo01 2008 BOS
38849 riverma01 2008 NYA
38855 rodrifr03 2008 LAA
38914 soriajo01 2008 KCA
39043 bailean01 2009 OAK
39154 cordefr01 2009 CIN
39215 frankry01 2009 SLN
39468 nathajo01 2009 MIN
39499 papeljo01 2009 BOS
39562 riverma01 2009 NYA
39782 bellhe01 2010 SDN
40259 riverma01 2010 NYA
40327 soriajo01 2010 KCA
40328 soriara01 2010 TBA
40389 wagnebi02 2010 ATL
40409 wilsobr01 2010 SFN
40451 axforjo01 2011 MIL
40474 bellhe01 2011 SDN
40561 cordefr01 2011 CIN
40621 farnsky01 2011 TBA
40685 hanrajo01 2011 PIT
40755 kimbrcr01 2011 ATL
40942 putzjj01 2011 ARI
40963 riverma01 2011 NYA
41076 valvejo01 2011 DET
41255 chapmar01 2012 CIN
41466 johnsji04 2012 BAL
41480 kimbrcr01 2012 ATL
41632 papeljo01 2012 PHI
41692 rodnefe01 2012 TBA
41757 soriara01 2012 NYA
41981 cishest01 2013 MIA
42162 hollagr01 2013 KCA
42207 kimbrcr01 2013 ATL
42323 nathajo01 2013 TEX
42375 perkigl01 2013 MIN
42418 riverma01 2013 NYA
42892 hollagr01 2014 KCA
42939 kimbrcr01 2014 ATL
43087 papeljo01 2014 PHI
43410 brittza01 2015 BAL
43455 chapmar01 2015 CIN
43546 familje01 2015 NYN
43820 melanma01 2015 PIT
43825 millean01 2015 NYA
43934 ramosaj01 2015 MIA
43968 rodrifr03 2015 MIL
43981 rosentr01 2015 SLN

> nrow(top_closers)
[1] 211

 

[Omar 382]

The labels are fucked up when you copy and paste, but I couldn't take a screenshot.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I just looked at all the pitchers who meet the requirements, and there's 211 pitchers in the history of MLB. The sample size would be far too small to have three on the same team at the same time.

Kind of what I feared. It's a worthy question to ask however with it kind of being a fad as of late. The Yankees and Red Sox lately have been pretty aggressive in acquiring relievers.

 

[Omar 382]

Kind of what I feared. It's a worthy question to ask however with it kind of being a fad as of late. The Yankees and Red Sox lately have been pretty aggressive in acquiring relievers.

Yes, it is interesting. I have a feeling the number of one-run wins would increase as a result, but how many of those one-run games could be three-run games with a Ben Zobrist or Daniel Murphy instead?

 

[da55bums]

as much as you think your belief holds water, let me know how many games would be blown if the starter always went 9 innings.

 

[Omar 382]

as much as you think your belief holds water, let me know how many games would be blown if the starter always went 9 innings.

Who the fuck suggested that???

 

[da55bums]

fuck the royals would have never made it to either of their last 2 WS runs.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

fuck the royals would have never made it to either of their last 2 WS runs.

How many teams had 3-4 relievers in a row as Madson, Hochevar, Herrera, Davis?

 

[da55bums]

Who the fuck suggested that???

you, you are stating that "closers" only add 0.8 wins to his team in a season. A strong bullpen keep plenty of wins.

 

[Omar 382]

you

 

[da55bums]

closers have evolved because baseball realized pitchers couldn't continue at a high level for 9 innings. There is a very strong case for the evolution of the position. Closers or a strong bullpen are responsible for way more than 0.8 wins a season.

 

[da55bums]

Closers are commonly a sore spot for sabermetricians. Most people find them misused and underused. But given the current method of use for a closer, just how important is a good one?

I looked at 2011, because that year is interesting (or painful) for baseball fans, with a certain piece of shit blowing a save in the last game of the season for the Red Sox. To evaluate closers, I used the Pythagorean formula's estimates versus the actual records of teams. I then singled out closers with 50 games finished and an ERA below 2.50. Kind of arbitrary numbers, but I wanted to keep it simple- as those closers typically are considered "good." My output is attached.View attachment 137545

The mean of the residuals is only slightly above zero (0.004925), but when you multiply it by 162, you get about 0.8. This means that a team with a dominant closer might add 0.8 wins to his team because of the team's success in one-run games.

I still hate the idea of "closers."

Highlighted - just dumb

 

[Omar 382]

closers have evolved because baseball realized pitchers couldn't continue at a high level for 9 innings. There is a very strong case for the evolution of the position. Closers or a strong bullpen are responsible for way more than 0.8 wins a season.

Who the fuck said that???

 

[Omar 382]

Highlighted - just dumb

Do you have anything quantifiable to back it up, or just a "hunch"?

 

[broncosmitty]

as much as you think your belief holds water, let me know how many games would be blown if the starter always went 9 innings.

Shitloads?