A.J. Jenkins

[maniax]

Who will have a bigger 1st year, and career impact: AJ Jenkins or Michael Floyd?

Personally I prefer the 6'3" 220 lb receiver. The Cardinals now have 2 starting receivers that are 6'3" 220. Could be a scary combo, it could be better than Fitz & Boldin.

 

[I_am_1z]

So you the people who like Jenkins are looking for something like an 1100-1200 yard season from him by his 2nd year?

He doesn't have the QB or system where we can expect him to put up those kind of numbers.

 

[NinerSickness]

He doesn't have the QB or system where we can expect him to put up those kind of numbers.

So what? 900 to 1000 or so?

 

[Bemular]

I'm hoping Ginn doesn't make the roster at this point. He's a very good return man, but he's not truly special IMO. And I still like Kyle Williams as a receiver - hell, even as a returner if he can get his head out of his ass in terms of dumb decisions. Ginn is just way too one-dimensional for a team this deep.

I'm not sure I agree here. Ginn is one of the better return men in the league IMO. Kyle Williams just isn't trust worthy IMO and didn't do enough as a receiver to make me want him to stay around. Plus with us drafting Jenkins, this could mean bad news for Williams.

I originally posted this in the draft thread but I think it may fit in here better: I'm not as high on Ginn (nor as low on Crabtree) as MW, but then I haven't studied either to the depths he has - That said, I do think Ginn brings more to the table than being just a one-dimensional player.

I agree with Dodub on this. Given the choice between Williams and Ginn, at this point in time and based on last year’s performance, I think Ginn is the better choice. I'm not saying he is the clear better choice but Ginn has the edge at this point.

As for the one dimensional comment – I'm not sure that makes sense. Ginn was productive in the passing game, running game and BOTH as a KR & PR - That seems hardly one-dimensional. Perhaps (Crimsoncrew) you are citing his lack of offensive production as testimony to his being one-dimensional.

If that is the case, then it is worth noting that last year there were ~15 other players whom returned both punts and kicks as well as contributed on offense. Among those other 15, here is how Ginn ranked in the following categories:

Ttl Off Att's------------------t5th (27)
Ttl Off Yds--------------------7th (288)
Off Yds/Off Att----------------5th (10.67)
Ttl Off 1st Dns---------------t4th (15)
% of Off 1st Dns/Off Att------t4th (55.56%)
Ttl Off TD's------------------t8th (0)

In addition to these #'s Ginn was one of our most effective WR's on 3rd down as well. He was targeted 9 times, (10 if you want to include a batted ball) of those 9 targets, 7 passes were catchable, 6 were caught and all 6 were converted into 1st dns. (Avg distance 9.7 yds)

He actually caught all 7 passes for first downs but the one that didn't count was the very low pass on the sideline that he caught but was unable to secure before his knee hit the ground out of bounds vs. Dal. As for his 4th down targets, there was one and I'm sure we all remember the outcome.

The point of sharing this information isn't to draw the conclusion that Ginn is better than Williams or even that he is better than he is. But to at least provide some contrast and comparison to others in the league who were functioning in a similar role.

And finally from the "for whatever its worth" department, if Ginn doesn't lose his 70+ yard TD vs. Baltimore and all else remains the same Ginns offensive production in the above categories is in the top 4-5 and his overall ranking jumps by two ranking points.

people always brush off bad hands as being concentration problems...

That is true. I think in most cases - though not all - it goes deeper than just concentration. That said, I think there are some guys who have good hands but have legitimate concentration lapses. I think Crabtree could fall into this category, but we'll see.

MW and I had a discussion about Ginn's hands awhile back where he was saying that Ginn had potentially good hands because they were "soft," he just lacked concentration. Ginn doesn't fight the ball, true. Unfortunately, he doesn't catch it, either. Is it just concentration? I don't know. But in Ginn's case I think there's something more to it (granted closing his eyes is a problem). At this point, Ginn seems unlikely to change. I'll be interested to see if Crabtree improves in this area at all if he plays this preseason. He has better hands than Ginn, no doubt, and can make tougher catches, but the drops on the short stuff are worrisome.

Bad hands and lack of concentration or not necessarily mutually inclusive; they can be but they can also be completely separate as well. I agree with MW on Ginn's hands, and I also agree that Ginn's problem is much more mental than physical. That said, I also agree there may be something more in Ginn's case, perhaps confidence or maybe even fear.

As for Crabtree, he has excellent hands in the high-zone, decent hands in the mid-zone, however his hands in the low-zone are pathetic - worst on the team. Ginn blows Crabtree away in the low-zone. This is why I laugh any time I read someone saying Crabtree has great range - because truthfully, he doesn't.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I haven't been this excited over a 49ers WR in a while. Can't wait to see him on the field.

 

[I_am_1z]

So what? 900 to 1000 or so?

seems reasonable. Hopefully Jeff Tuel will be on the team by then

 

[CalamityX11]

Luv the optimisim amongst us....

 

[FourBeeDen]

On a side note: For those who would want to think of a nickname for AJ, he already has one.. It's ET

 

[mem49er]

people always brush off bad hands as being concentration problems...

That is irrelevant to our discussion. In your opinion, which does Hill have?

 

[Flyingiguana]

That is irrelevant to our discussion. In your opinion, which does Hill have?

bad hands....

is there an echo?

 

[mem49er]

bad hands....

is there an echo?

So, on that point, what are you basing your opinion on?

 

[Flyingiguana]

So, on that point, what are you basing your opinion on?

watching him play....

 

[mem49er]

watching him play....

Really? You catch a lot of GT football?

 

[Flyingiguana]

Really? You catch a lot of GT football?

i get all college football games and i was paying attention to wr's this year...

 

[NinerSickness]

So I've gotten to see a little bit of AJ Jenkins today. Don't take this like my usual draft analysis because I haven't seen Jenkins enough to form a really insightful opinoin. That said...

Being completely objective about Jenkins my initial reaction to him is not positive. He doens't seem like he's all that hard to cover; his game speed doesn't make him look like a 4.39 guy. His hands seem good but not great...

He didn't have a great QB throwing to him, and that's a huge factor when it comes to production, but let's just say I've yet to see something to make me as optimistic about him as you jenkins fans are.

He does have long arms for a 6'0 guy though. Not impressed by a 33 inch vertical for a guy who weighs 190 pounds, but his broad jump was good.

 

[SFAnthem]

Projections aside, I just want him to develop into a field stretcher. A desean Jackson type that doesnt have to catch 6+ balls a game to make an impact.

2 or 3 a game is fine. A threat to keep defenses honest.

Id imagine the cardinals will have more catch up time in game for Floyd to amass stats vs. The niners tendency to try to control games with defense.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I originally posted this in the draft thread but I think it may fit in here better: I'm not as high on Ginn (nor as low on Crabtree) as MW, but then I haven't studied either to the depths he has - That said, I do think Ginn brings more to the table than being just a one-dimensional player.

I agree with Dodub on this. Given the choice between Williams and Ginn, at this point in time and based on last year’s performance, I think Ginn is the better choice. I'm not saying he is the clear better choice but Ginn has the edge at this point.

As for the one dimensional comment – I'm not sure that makes sense. Ginn was productive in the passing game, running game and BOTH as a KR & PR - That seems hardly one-dimensional. Perhaps (Crimsoncrew) you are citing his lack of offensive production as testimony to his being one-dimensional.

If that is the case, then it is worth noting that last year there were ~15 other players whom returned both punts and kicks as well as contributed on offense. Among those other 15, here is how Ginn ranked in the following categories:

Ttl Off Att's------------------t5th (27)
Ttl Off Yds--------------------7th (288)
Off Yds/Off Att----------------5th (10.67)
Ttl Off 1st Dns---------------t4th (15)
% of Off 1st Dns/Off Att------t4th (55.56%)
Ttl Off TD's------------------t8th (0)

In addition to these #'s Ginn was one of our most effective WR's on 3rd down as well. He was targeted 9 times, (10 if you want to include a batted ball) of those 9 targets, 7 passes were catchable, 6 were caught and all 6 were converted into 1st dns. (Avg distance 9.7 yds)

He actually caught all 7 passes for first downs but the one that didn't count was the very low pass on the sideline that he caught but was unable to secure before his knee hit the ground out of bounds vs. Dal. As for his 4th down targets, there was one and I'm sure we all remember the outcome.

The point of sharing this information isn't to draw the conclusion that Ginn is better than Williams or even that he is better than he is. But to at least provide some contrast and comparison to others in the league who were functioning in a similar role.

And finally from the "for whatever its worth" department, if Ginn doesn't lose his 70+ yard TD vs. Baltimore and all else remains the same Ginns offensive production in the above categories is in the top 4-5 and his overall ranking jumps by two ranking points.

Didn't get a chance to address this earlier. A few thoughts.

If we consider receiving and returning ability, I tend to agree that Ginn should get the nod today. But that's almost entirely because of his return ability, and it bothers me to keep a guy on the squad effectively for the sole purpose of returning kicks. We've seen Ginn in a primary receiving role (not saying he's THE primary receiver, but one of the top two guys), and he wasn’t effective. Williams hasn't shown he can be a top-two receiver, either, but he was more effective as a receiver in far fewer opportunities this year, and he's over three years younger.

Ginn is a one-dimensional return threat. He certainly caught some balls, and he had some nice runs (I believe his effectiveness running the ball outstripped this effectiveness as a receiving threat, frankly, especially later in the year). But that doesn't mean he was any kind of a legitimate threat in those facets of the game. Anyone who gets significant PT in an offense should have some production. Given his opportunities, Ginn did little as a WR.

And Ginn's opportunities distinguish him from several other returners. Ginn spent much of the season as the #2 receiver. He never dropped below #3 until he was injured. Despite that, his production was limited. You may scoff at "production" as a tool to evaluate a guy (though I feel inclined to point out that you are looking at production in your statistical review of return men), but I think it's pretty important. If a guy isn't producing when he has opportunities, he's doing something wrong. Our WR situation was bottom-three in the league (and was likely second-worst after Jax). Ginn was forced into action far more than several of the guys you're comparing him to, and he stacks up poorly against the guys with whom he should compare favorably based on his role in the offense.

As for your numbers, I’m not sure where you’re getting them.

If we set a threshold of 5+ PRs and KRs, as you seem to be doing, 15 players also had at least 5 offensive touches. Among those players, Ginn was 10th in total offensive yards with 288, not 7th. He was behind Darren Sproles (1313), Antonio Brown (1149), Dexter McCluster (844), C.J. Spiller (830), Preston Parker (593), Joshua Cribbs (543), Randall Cobb (380), Devin Hester (363), and Leon Washington (293).

Ginn beat Joe McKnight (273) by 15 yards. Other than McKnight, none of the guys who produced less than Ginn had more than 11 touches. They were offensive afterthoughts, generally on very good offensive teams that didn’t need them to contribute. Those guys played for the Pats, Lions, Falcons, and Titans, respectively the 2nd, 4th, 8th, and 12th passing offenses. The Niners were 29th. Unlike those other teams, we needed another WR desperately.

Ginn was also 10th in TDs, not 8th. Every one of the guys with more yards had at least one TD. And while Ginn was “tied” for 10th, that's tied for last as he didn’t have any TDs.

Even if you factor in the 70-yard TD against Baltimore, Ginn only moves ahead of Leon Washington in terms of yards, and ties for 7th in TDs. He would only jump Cribbs in terms of yards per touch, placing fifth of six receivers with more than 11 touches. Not to mention it’s likely that the other guys had some plays taken away due to offensive holding or similar penalties.

I'm not sure how much value your other numbers have here.

Comparing yards per touch effectively eliminates the RBs from consideration as even very good YPA for a running back are less than half what they should be for an average WR. That measurement moves Ginn ahead of players who ran the ball a lot, including Sproles, McCluster, Spiller, and Washington. The fact that this figure presents Ginn as somehow being more productive than Sproles tells us all we need to know about its worth. Among WRs, Ginn ranks 6th in offensive yards/touch. The only WRs Ginn is ahead of in this category are Eric Weems, Mark Mariani, and Julian Edelman. Again, none of those guys had more than 11 touches. The same is true of first downs, though Ginn did compare more favorably with the rest of the field in terms of first down percentage.

At best, Ginn was in the bottom half of return men in terms of offensive production, despite playing on a team that desperately needed help at the WR position. He was the Niners' second WR for much of the season. I don’t think that’s good enough on a team that is looking for some long-term answers at WR.

As for the other elements of Ginn’s “production,” I think you overstate them. I can’t agree that Ginn was one of our “most effective” WRs on third down. He only had six receptions on third down. Ginn was effective when we threw to him, but we rarely did so. I don’t consider that effective overall.

Ginn will most likely make the squad given his signing bonus and his return ability. But I hope that we keep six receivers in that case. Until and unless Manningham or Jenkins pan out as primary receivers, or Crabtree takes a fairly big jump, we need to keep developing young players at the position. Getting rid of Kyle Williams seems like a step backward.

Btw, that's a cute quote you've added to your profile. Who said it?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Bad hands and lack of concentration or not necessarily mutually inclusive; they can be but they can also be completely separate as well. I agree with MW on Ginn's hands, and I also agree that Ginn's problem is much more mental than physical. That said, I also agree there may be something more in Ginn's case, perhaps confidence or maybe even fear.

As for Crabtree, he has excellent hands in the high-zone, decent hands in the mid-zone, however his hands in the low-zone are pathetic - worst on the team. Ginn blows Crabtree away in the low-zone. This is why I laugh any time I read someone saying Crabtree has great range - because truthfully, he doesn't.

As for Ginn's hands, as said, I can't say for certain what is going on. Maybe they're just too small. Maybe he simply lacks concentration. For whatever reason, his hands are below average.

I agree Crabtree has struggled in the low zone. But those balls are often harder to catch. It is more crowded, and you are more likely to get hit. You have to be more aware of the defenders. Smith often throws high on short slants, the ball that Crabtree has struggled with the most. I'm not excusing Crabtree. Clearly he needs to work in this area, and on his rapport with Smith. But to me, his struggles in that area speak to concentration more than Ginn's.

 

[4lifer9er]

Here's a question for you AJ Jenkins fans: how good do you think he'll be? Name a WR or two to whom you think AJ will favourably compare.

Hey everyone, long time no post. That whole "work" thing keeps getting in the way. I like the pick a lot personally and I have a comparison that immediately jumped out to me if AJ can reach his FULL potential. Now this may create some hubbub, but I see a young Torry Holt. Granted he does need to work on his off the line technique, but I love his hands and I think he actually can be a fantastic complement to Michael Busttree.

 

[NinerSickness]

I'd be extatic w/ a young Torry Holt. I hated that guy!