MLB Daily Thread: 9/22/2017: Cardinals, Rangers, and Twins with big wins

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Ive said for 2 months, KC is the one team i dont wanna see in a one gamer

I wouldn't want to see any team in a one gamer.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

I wouldn't want to see any team in a one gamer.

Of course, and its a shame the schedule makers wont allow us to punish the Red Sox a little more during the entire month of September, but thats how it goes.....A 90+ Win team having to roll the dice in one game

FTRS

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

A 90+ Win team having to roll the dice in one game

FTRS

Should have won the division.

I can understand a gripe if a WC team is clearly the 2nd or 3rd best team in their league, but the Yankees aren't.

Actually, I think they might be, because I think they're better than the Red Sox, but they're behind them in the standings.

 

[PolarVortex]

I'll see you Monday

bring beer

 

[cerealboi]

Of course, and its a shame the schedule makers wont allow us to punish the Red Sox a little more during the entire month of September, but thats how it goes.....A 90+ Win team having to roll the dice in one game

FTRS

Probably shouldn't have shit the bed in mid June, huh? Write that down for next year.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

its a shame the schedule makers wont allow us to punish the Red Sox a little more during the entire month of September,

I do agree with that. Given the rivalry, and the fact that more often than not, one of those teams wins the division, I think there should be at least two series between the two in September, including the last series of the season. Every year should be like that.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Should have won the division.

I can understand a gripe if a WC team is clearly the 2nd or 3rd best team in their league, but the Yankees aren't.

Actually, I think they might be, because I think they're better than the Red Sox, but they're behind them in the standings.

yeah, its the way it goes......They are definitely better than the Red Sox, Ive believed that all season......The one run game record is what it is, and its the reason they arent in first place, but its just some fluky thing we probably wont see in baseball for a long time from a good team.....2nd best run differential in baseball, better than the Dodgers/Nats/Cubs/Sox/Stros, etc.........

 

[redseat]

bring beer

will do

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

2nd best run differential in baseball, better than the Dodgers/Nats/Cubs/Sox/Stros, etc.........

Which team is 1st?

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Probably shouldn't have shit the bed in mid June, huh? Write that down for next year.

Naaaah, the Yankees will annihilate this division next season.......a small correction to the one run losses, and they prob clinched the East already

 

[cerealboi]

I do agree with that. Given the rivalry, and the fact that more often than not, one of those teams wins the division, I think there should be at least two series between the two in September, including the last series of the season. Every year should be like that.

What I think Dirt is getting at is he'd like to see the Yankees play 162 games at home against the White Sox.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Which team is 1st?

Phillies

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

What I think Dirt is getting at is he'd like to see the Yankees play 162 games at home against the White Sox.

The schedule has been a tough one
Thanks to the unbalanced schedule and interleague play, we see some differences in strength of schedule. That has indeed been a factor for the Yankees this season, as they have the third-highest opponents' average winning percentage in all of baseball. So they've built that impressive run differential and BaseRuns mark against a fairly tough docket of opponents, on average.


Here's why the Yankees are better than you think they are


I only speak in truths

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

They're dominating at the runs scored/runs allowed level
At this writing, the Yankees have scored 811 runs and allowed 625 runs. That comes to a run differential of +186, and that figure trails only that of the Indians. Yes, the Yankees have a better run differential than the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals and any other team that doesn't play its home games in Cleveland. Run differential can be a better indicator of success moving forward than a team's actual record. On that point, it's worth noting that that Yankees, despite a record of 85-67, have played, at the runs scored and runs allowed level, like a team that's 95-57. That scales to a 102-win season.

So why the divide between the Yanks' actual record and their run differential? For one, they're 17-25 in games decided by one run. The best evidence suggests that records in one-run games that deviate wildly from the .500 mark are a function of luck, bad or good. In the Yankees' case, it has been bad luck.

Drill down further, and they're still dominant
If you're interested in a getting a gauge on team quality that goes beyond runs scored and runs allowed -- and we are -- then you can turn to the BaseRuns system at FanGraphs. BaseRuns drills down to the plate appearance level and corrects for some of the sequencing and clustering effects inherent in run differential. Sometimes it gives you a different picture. In the case of the 2017 Yankees, it sees a team that should be 94-58 instead of that actual record of 85-67. The Indians are tops in the current BaseRuns standings, and the Dodgers are second at 95 wins. The Yankees, of course, check in just behind them. The broader takeaway is that both run differential and BaseRuns see the Yankees as being significantly better than their actual record. That has meaning as we head toward the postseason.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

The roster is stronger than ever
General manager Brian Cashman was of course quite active leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. Todd Frazier is now pinning down third base. Sonny Gray has solidified the front of the rotation, and Jaime Garcia gives them depth. As well, adding David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to a relief corps that already includes Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green gives manager Joe Girardi the makings of an absolutely dominant playoff bullpen. Matt Holliday is back. Greg Bird is healthy again and slugging a respectable .452 since his return. Aaron Judge has arrested his second-half decline and is now going off in September. Too often, when we contemplate a team's strength heading into the postseason, we get lost in the body of work. It's really more about the current roster, and the Yankees' current roster is an impressive one.

For all these reasons, you probably need to stop thinking of the Yankees as a team flush with high-ceiling young talent that slipped into the postseason a bit sooner than we expected. Instead, you should think of them as being on the short list of best teams in baseball and viable threats to win the World Series.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The schedule has been a tough one
Thanks to the unbalanced schedule and interleague play, we see some differences in strength of schedule. That has indeed been a factor for the Yankees this season, as they have the third-highest opponents' average winning percentage in all of baseball. So they've built that impressive run differential and BaseRuns mark against a fairly tough docket of opponents, on average.


Here's why the Yankees are better than you think they are


I only speak in truths

They're dominating at the runs scored/runs allowed level
At this writing, the Yankees have scored 811 runs and allowed 625 runs. That comes to a run differential of +186, and that figure trails only that of the Indians. Yes, the Yankees have a better run differential than the Dodgers, Astros, Nationals and any other team that doesn't play its home games in Cleveland. Run differential can be a better indicator of success moving forward than a team's actual record. On that point, it's worth noting that that Yankees, despite a record of 85-67, have played, at the runs scored and runs allowed level, like a team that's 95-57. That scales to a 102-win season.

So why the divide between the Yanks' actual record and their run differential? For one, they're 17-25 in games decided by one run. The best evidence suggests that records in one-run games that deviate wildly from the .500 mark are a function of luck, bad or good. In the Yankees' case, it has been bad luck.

Drill down further, and they're still dominant
If you're interested in a getting a gauge on team quality that goes beyond runs scored and runs allowed -- and we are -- then you can turn to the BaseRuns system at FanGraphs. BaseRuns drills down to the plate appearance level and corrects for some of the sequencing and clustering effects inherent in run differential. Sometimes it gives you a different picture. In the case of the 2017 Yankees, it sees a team that should be 94-58 instead of that actual record of 85-67. The Indians are tops in the current BaseRuns standings, and the Dodgers are second at 95 wins. The Yankees, of course, check in just behind them. The broader takeaway is that both run differential and BaseRuns see the Yankees as being significantly better than their actual record. That has meaning as we head toward the postseason.

The roster is stronger than ever
General manager Brian Cashman was of course quite active leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. Todd Frazier is now pinning down third base. Sonny Gray has solidified the front of the rotation, and Jaime Garcia gives them depth. As well, adding David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to a relief corps that already includes Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green gives manager Joe Girardi the makings of an absolutely dominant playoff bullpen. Matt Holliday is back. Greg Bird is healthy again and slugging a respectable .452 since his return. Aaron Judge has arrested his second-half decline and is now going off in September. Too often, when we contemplate a team's strength heading into the postseason, we get lost in the body of work. It's really more about the current roster, and the Yankees' current roster is an impressive one.

For all these reasons, you probably need to stop thinking of the Yankees as a team flush with high-ceiling young talent that slipped into the postseason a bit sooner than we expected. Instead, you should think of them as being on the short list of best teams in baseball and viable threats to win the World Series.

I can't even begin to tell you how sad this makes me for the Yankees and their fans.

Thoughts and prayers.

 

[cerealboi]

The schedule has been a tough one
Thanks to the unbalanced schedule and interleague play, we see some differences in strength of schedule. That has indeed been a factor for the Yankees this season, as they have the third-highest opponents' average winning percentage in all of baseball. So they've built that impressive run differential and BaseRuns mark against a fairly tough docket of opponents, on average.


Here's why the Yankees are better than you think they are


I only speak in truths

Gets to play the Mets every year.
Gets an "away" series relocated to across town due to weather.

Is complaining about the schedule.

 

[PolarVortex]

Which team is 1st?

Memphis Redbirds

 

[PolarVortex]

The roster is stronger than ever
General manager Brian Cashman was of course quite active leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline. Todd Frazier is now pinning down third base. Sonny Gray has solidified the front of the rotation, and Jaime Garcia gives them depth. As well, adding David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle to a relief corps that already includes Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green gives manager Joe Girardi the makings of an absolutely dominant playoff bullpen. Matt Holliday is back. Greg Bird is healthy again and slugging a respectable .452 since his return. Aaron Judge has arrested his second-half decline and is now going off in September. Too often, when we contemplate a team's strength heading into the postseason, we get lost in the body of work. It's really more about the current roster, and the Yankees' current roster is an impressive one.

For all these reasons, you probably need to stop thinking of the Yankees as a team flush with high-ceiling young talent that slipped into the postseason a bit sooner than we expected. Instead, you should think of them as being on the short list of best teams in baseball and viable threats to win the World Series.

Cahill > Gray

 

[cerealboi]

Naaaah, the Yankees will annihilate this division next season.......a small correction to the one run losses, and they prob clinched the East already

Sweet. The Sox officially get to be the little choo choo!