Game Thread: 8/11 Houston we have a problem @ Champs

[calsnowskier]

Leake is coming off a MINOR injury. He did not need to go to the DL, he only went because of the roster crunch.

Heston has had 2 bad starts in a row. Is it the wall? Maybe. Is just the ups and downs of a season? Maybe. In his previous 6 games, he went 41.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA, .195 BAA and .530 OPSA. If you choose to ignore that, and only look at his previous 2 starts and declare his season done, have at it. Just realize that that looks bad, even on a Nolan-Scale.

Since coming back from the DL, Peavey has pitched 7 games. In those, he has 42.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 32/9 K/BB, .227 BBA, .627 OPSA. His worst start in that streak was in Chase where he went 6.1 giving up 4 (and he took the W). The key stat is that in the 7th inning, he has a 32.40 ERA! He simply can't be given ANY rope in the 7th inning and later any more. That is fine, as long as that is known. And Boch and Rags know that. But you are probably right. We really can't rely on him to give us 6.

 

[shrksfn9192]

Leake is coming off a MINOR injury. He did not need to go to the DL, he only went because of the roster crunch.

Heston has had 2 bad starts in a row. Is it the wall? Maybe. Is just the ups and downs of a season? Maybe. In his previous 6 games, he went 41.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA, .195 BAA and .530 OPSA. If you choose to ignore that, and only look at his previous 2 starts and declare his season done, have at it. Just realize that that looks bad, even on a Nolan-Scale.

Since coming back from the DL, Peavey has pitched 7 games. In those, he has 42.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 32/9 K/BB, .227 BBA, .627 OPSA. His worst start in that streak was in Chase where he went 6.1 giving up 4 (and he took the W). The key stat is that in the 7th inning, he has a 32.40 ERA! He simply can't be given ANY rope in the 7th inning and later any more. That is fine, as long as that is known. And Boch and Rags know that. But you are probably right. We really can't rely on him to give us 6.

Heston has a 4.45 ERA on the road and a 2.57 ERA at home, so hopefully today's start will be a good one. Even if he struggles today, at least the bullpen is rested.

 

[tzill]

Leake is coming off a MINOR injury. He did not need to go to the DL, he only went because of the roster crunch.

Heston has had 2 bad starts in a row. Is it the wall? Maybe. Is just the ups and downs of a season? Maybe. In his previous 6 games, he went 41.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA, .195 BAA and .530 OPSA. If you choose to ignore that, and only look at his previous 2 starts and declare his season done, have at it. Just realize that that looks bad, even on a Nolan-Scale.

Since coming back from the DL, Peavey has pitched 7 games. In those, he has 42.2 IP, 2.74 ERA, 32/9 K/BB, .227 BBA, .627 OPSA. His worst start in that streak was in Chase where he went 6.1 giving up 4 (and he took the W). The key stat is that in the 7th inning, he has a 32.40 ERA! He simply can't be given ANY rope in the 7th inning and later any more. That is fine, as long as that is known. And Boch and Rags know that. But you are probably right. We really can't rely on him to give us 6.

That's a good theory, but hardly established fact. He might be just fine and we get 9 solid starts from him the rest of the way. I hope so. However, he was brought over to give us 12 starts and now he's missed two. I don't think they would DL him to fix a roster crunch given the few number of games left, but I'm not in the meetings with Bobby and Boch.

With Heston, it's not the two bad starts as much as it's the two failures to make it into the sixth inning. I'm not saying he's "done." That's YOU building a straw man argument. I'm saying he's hit the rookie wall that many if not most pitchers hit around the 125 inning mark. My guess is that he'll work through it, but he probably won't be a 3.25 ERA pitcher the rest of the way. Again, hope I'm wrong. If he can give us 6+ in 8 of his 10 starts I'd take that.

Cain remains a fecal fiesta. This is the truly disappointing development of the season, IMO. I expected Pagan to fade (though not to be essentially done) and you have to figure you're going to get your random Pence/Aoki/Leake injuries. I didn't expect it to take as long as it did for Cain to make it back, and once back I thought he'd be a 6 IP, 3 ER guy....he's been awful. Like most, I think he will be better next year with a full ST behind him and another 6 months of distance from surgery -- I doubt he's done. However, THIS year I'm very disappointed that we are likely going to get nothing out of him. BT I expected and you could see Huddy being done, but zero from Cain is not how I figured the season to go.

The SP issues are less of a factor in the playoffs (Cain would be left off the roster), but you have to GET there. And to do THAT, you need solid SP down the stretch.

Let's hope.