2nd round qb's and overly optimistic fans

[Flyingiguana]

Oh man you are clueless. You are only strengthenning his argument. All you are doing is saying: "he took a undersized kid from a low budget school and turned him into a professional quarterback". He took sh8 and made it turn to diamond / he made the impossible become a reality for an undersized pathetic kid of a quarterback. He succeeded where most other coaches would fail.

if josh johnson playing well at a low end school is the basis for saying harbaugh can turn a qb from a pistol offense into a franchise qb, then that is the clueless argument.

harbaugh to me appears qb friendly, obviously. but it also seems like he needs a very intelligent qb to run his offense. so i'm assuming kap impressed in that department or we wouldn't have drafted him. i just hope for our sake harbaugh doesn't fall in love with the guy he drafted.

we have to ratchet down the expectations for kap being able to possibly upgrade our qb situation. just like i have to ratchet down my expectations of smith turning into the next rich gannon.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

what did he do with josh johnson and andrew luck? will johnson ever turn into a starter? i wanted to draft him as a potential back up.

the bolded part hits my argument right on the head. why does he deserve a shot? think about what you're saying...

He turned Johnson from a nobody into an NFL player. He turned Luck into arguably the most NFL-ready QB in a decade or more.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Iguana = Seksiwidow

Yeah, I know. I find it's confusing to refer to him that way these days, though.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

if josh johnson playing well at a low end school is the basis for saying harbaugh can turn a qb from a pistol offense into a franchise qb, then that is the clueless argument.

harbaugh to me appears qb friendly, obviously. but it also seems like he needs a very intelligent qb to run his offense. so i'm assuming kap impressed in that department or we wouldn't have drafted him. i just hope for our sake harbaugh doesn't fall in love with the guy he drafted.

we have to ratchet down the expectations for kap being able to possibly upgrade our qb situation. just like i have to ratchet down my expectations of smith turning into the next rich gannon.

The point is that Harbaugh has had remarkable success developing QBs everywhere he has gone. Does that mean it will happen with Kaepernick? No. But it does set him apart from many other coaches in the league and makes Kaepernick's situation distinguishable from several of those other second-round picks.

As for intelligence, Kaepernick scored a 37 on the wonderlic. Smith scored a 40. He's plenty smart.

I really don't think expectations for Kaepernick are all that high.

 

[Flyingiguana]

guess my theory about harbaugh is right then. kap came into the nfl as a project. his throwing motion seemed to be vastly improved in limited action this year tho. maybe you're right and harbaugh can work some magic with him.

right now we need to keep an eye out for that franchise qb. maybe we have it in smith, maybe we have it in kap, right now we can't hang our hat on either guy.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

guess my theory about harbaugh is right then. kap came into the nfl as a project. his throwing motion seemed to be vastly improved in limited action this year tho. maybe you're right and harbaugh can work some magic with him.

right now we need to keep an eye out for that franchise qb. maybe we have it in smith, maybe we have it in kap, right now we can't hang our hat on either guy.

I agree. The argument for Kap over Smith addresses the fact that Smith is very unlikely to be a franchise guy at this point. It's possible, but pretty unlikely. Kap is virtually a complete unknown. As such, he arguably has a higher likelihood of being a franchise guy. He also has a higher likelihood of being terrible.

 

[wartyOne]

looking at the current top 15 qb's. about half went 1st overal and two thirds in the 1st round. drew brees 32nd, which would be end of the 1st round now. u have a 3rd rounder in schaub then brady and romo.

maybe we'll get lucky with kap, but otherwise we'll have to spend a couple 1st rounders to get into a position to grab someone that falls out of the top 10. nobody this year that fits the bill.

Here's some more perspective:

1990: Jeff George (1) Bust. Outright.
1990: Andre Ware (7) Bust. Outright.
1992: David Klingler (6) Bust. Outright.
1993: Drew Bledsoe (1) Productive, but nothing special otherwise.
1993: Rick Mirer (3) Bust. Outright.
1994: Heath Shuler (3) Bust. Outright.
1994: Trent Dilfer (6) Bust for TB, but had a long if unspectacular career.
1995: Steve McNair (3)
1995: Kerry Collins (5) Productive, but nothing special otherwise.
1998: Peyton Manning (1)
1998: Ryan Leaf (2) Bust. Outright.
1999: Tim Couch (1) Bust. Outright.
1999: Donovan McNabb (2)
1999: Akili Smith (3) Bust. Outright.
2001: Mike Vick (1) Good career so far, but not because of passing numbers.
2002: David Carr (1) Bust. However, this was likely due to taking 7000 sacks.
2002: Joey Harrington (3) Bust. Outright.
2003: Carson Palmer (1) Productive, but nothing special otherwise.
2003: Byron Leftwhich (7) Bust. Outright.
2004: Eli Manning (1)
2004: Phillip Rivers (4)
2005: Alex Smith (1) Bust. Not on the David Carr level, but he clearly was not worth the first overall pick.
2006: Vince Young (3) Started out decent. Headcase makes him a bust.
2006: Matt Leinart (10) Bust. Outright.
2007: Jamarcus Russell (1) Biggest bust of all time. Possibly in any sport.
2008: Matt Ryan (3) A bit early to tell. Looks above average, but not elite.
2009: Matt Stafford (1)
2009: Mark Sanchez (5)
2010: Sam Bradford (1)
2011: Cam Newton (1)
2011: Jake Locker (8)
2011: Blaine Gabbert (10)

That's a list of Quarterbacks taken from 1990 through last year in the top ten picks of the draft. I've emboldened the standouts. I think it's still too early to tell on any of the guys drafted from 2009 on, but Stafford looks good if he can stay healthy, Sanchez is likely out of the league in 2013, Bradford is nothing special and is a huge injury risk, Newton looks good, Locker and Gabbert look bad but it is way too early to tell anything about the last three.

That's about the same percentage of terrible picks as your list of second rounders.

Montana: Third round
Brady: Sixth Round
Favre: Second Round

I could keep going on this list, but I'm short on time at the moment.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Here's some more perspective:

1990: Jeff George (1) Bust. Outright.
1990: Andre Ware (7) Bust. Outright.
1992: David Klingler (6) Bust. Outright.
1993: Drew Bledsoe (1) Productive, but nothing special otherwise.
1993: Rick Mirer (3) Bust. Outright.
1994: Heath Shuler (3) Bust. Outright.
1994: Trent Dilfer (6) Bust for TB, but had a long if unspectacular career.
1995: Steve McNair (3)
1995: Kerry Collins (5) Productive, but nothing special otherwise.
1998: Peyton Manning (1)
1998: Ryan Leaf (2) Bust. Outright.
1999: Tim Couch (1) Bust. Outright.
1999: Donovan McNabb (2)
1999: Akili Smith (3) Bust. Outright.
2001: Mike Vick (1) Good career so far, but not because of passing numbers.
2002: David Carr (1) Bust. However, this was likely due to taking 7000 sacks.
2002: Joey Harrington (3) Bust. Outright.
2003: Carson Palmer (1) Productive, but nothing special otherwise.
2003: Byron Leftwhich (7) Bust. Outright.
2004: Eli Manning (1)
2004: Phillip Rivers (4)
2005: Alex Smith (1) Bust. Not on the David Carr level, but he clearly was not worth the first overall pick.
2006: Vince Young (3) Started out decent. Headcase makes him a bust.
2006: Matt Leinart (10) Bust. Outright.
2007: Jamarcus Russell (1) Biggest bust of all time. Possibly in any sport.
2008: Matt Ryan (3) A bit early to tell. Looks above average, but not elite.
2009: Matt Stafford (1)
2009: Mark Sanchez (5)
2010: Sam Bradford (1)
2011: Cam Newton (1)
2011: Jake Locker (8)
2011: Blaine Gabbert (10)

That's a list of Quarterbacks taken from 1990 through last year in the top ten picks of the draft. I've emboldened the standouts. I think it's still too early to tell on any of the guys drafted from 2009 on, but Stafford looks good if he can stay healthy, Sanchez is likely out of the league in 2013, Bradford is nothing special and is a huge injury risk, Newton looks good, Locker and Gabbert look bad but it is way too early to tell anything about the last three.

That's about the same percentage of terrible picks as your list of second rounders.

Montana: Third round
Brady: Sixth Round
Favre: Second Round

I could keep going on this list, but I'm short on time at the moment.

I generally agree. Pre-injury, Carson Palmer was absolutely something special, though. He was looking like one of the top QBs in the league when he had his knee taken out by the Steelers. It's worth noting that it took Brady getting injured for them to change that rule.

I agree that Matt Ryan is kind of on the edge. Definitely above average. But I expected him to make more of a jump than he has in recent seasons. His OL was fairly shaky this season. I'll be interested to see if they address that.

I also think Matt Stafford is looking very much like we can move him into the special category. He'll have to stay healthy, but he was damn good this year.

 

[wartyOne]

I generally agree. Pre-injury, Carson Palmer was absolutely something special, though. He was looking like one of the top QBs in the league when he had his knee taken out by the Steelers. It's worth noting that it took Brady getting injured for them to change that rule.

I agree that Matt Ryan is kind of on the edge. Definitely above average. But I expected him to make more of a jump than he has in recent seasons. His OL was fairly shaky this season. I'll be interested to see if they address that.

I also think Matt Stafford is looking very much like we can move him into the special category. He'll have to stay healthy, but he was damn good this year.

I waffled on Palmer. He only had that one season, which was really good. I know that knee injury is difficult to come back from, especially for a QB's plant foot, but he's been pretty average to bad since that. If Stafford hadn't been injured so much in his first two seasons, I think we could call him elite. That was a hell of a year he put together this season.

 

[Flyingiguana]

the key is to find the right qb. and looking at the current crop of starters, the majority of the good ones are taken early in the 1st round. if someone wastes a pick on heath shuler or jamarcus russell that's their problem.

forcing a 1st rounder just because u need a qb isn't the way to go either. now that can set u back big time.

 

[wartyOne]

the key is to find the right qb. and looking at the current crop of starters, the majority of the good ones are taken early in the 1st round. if someone wastes a pick on heath shuler or jamarcus russell that's their problem.

forcing a 1st rounder just because u need a qb isn't the way to go either. now that can set u back big time.

I don't think you can justify that though.

AFCE
New England: 6th round pick Brady. Arguably the best QB in the game.
New York: 1st round (5th pick overall) Sanchez. Bust.
Buffalo: 7th round pick Fitzpatrick. Up and down. Productive, though.
Miami: Honestly, I don't know who their QB is. They have Losman, Henne and Moore who played games last year. Losman went in the first, Henne went in the second and both are terrible. Moore was an undrafted FA, and had the best numbers/wins-losses of that bunch.

AFCW
Denver: 1st round pick Tebow. NFL QB in name only. Nothing about this guy is a success.
KC: 7th round pick Cassel. Serviceable QB. Nothing overly special or detrimental.
SD: 1st round pick Rivers. Bonafide star.
Oakland: 1st round picks Campbell and Palmer. Both on their second teams. Neither is very good.

AFCS
Houston: 3rd round pick Schaub. Inconsistent, but mostly pretty good when healthy.
Indy: Currently sans QB, but for argument sake, we'll keep Manning here. 1st pick overall, and one of the top QB's ever.
Jacksonville: 1st round pick Gabbert. Too early to tell, but he's been bad to date.
Tennessee: 6th round pick Hasselbeck. Nearing the end, but has been a good QB to date.

AFCN
Pittsburgh: 1st round pick Roethlisberger. Elite QB
Cincinnati: 2nd round pick Dalton. Too early to tell, but looks good so far.
Cleveland: 3rd round pick McCoy. Already looking to be replaced.
Baltimore: 1st round pick Flacco. Above average, but not elite.

NFCE
NY: 1st pick overall Manning. Really came into elite status this year. Has been above average before that. If he continues to play the way he did this year, he's elite.
Washington: Same as Miami, I have no idea who the QB is here. Grossman was a 1st round bust who was all but out of the league when he landed in DC. Beck was a 2nd round pick. Both combined for a 1-8 record. I don't know who played in the other 7 games.
Philadelphia: 1st pick overall Vick. I'll count him as a good QB. Not elite.
Dallas: UDFA Romo. If Vick is good, so is Romo. Not elite.

NFCW
SF: 1st overall pick Smith. Has been a disappointment if not an outright bust.
ARZ: We'll say Kolb because of what they gave up for him. 2nd round pick. Not enough sample size to say for sure.
Seattle: 2nd round pick Jackson. Terrible.
StL: 1st overall pick Bradford. Not enough sample size, but underwhelming to date.

NFCS
NO: 2nd round pick Brees. Arguably the best QB in the game today.
TB: 1st round pick Freeman. Underwhelming to this point, but too early to tell.
Car: 1st pick overall Newton. Seems good if he continues at this pace.
Atl: 1st round pick Ryan. Above average, but not elite.

NFCN
GB: 1st round pick Rodgers. Arguably the best QB in the game today.
Minn: 1st round pick Ponder. Looks like a bust, but too early to tell.
Det: 1st pick overall Stafford. Small sample size due to injury, but impressive when healthy.
Chicago: 1st round pick Cutler. Above average, but not elite.

It's more diverse than you'd think, and a lot of those first rounders are terrible. As Crimson said in another post, the only reason they're in there is because there's more invested in them.

 

[NinerSickness]

For the record I'm not optimistic about Kaep at all, but I think it would be a better idea to start him next seaosn than to sign Alex. If Peyton gets away use the money Alex would've gotten on Carl Nicks. That would be one badass OL. Who could stop the run against 'em? Especially with Kaep's ability to run.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

Those are both great lists, Warty. I think the thing is that there is just so much that goes into a successful QB, both from his end and what he's surrounded with. Of those bolded players, it seems like Manning is the only one that truly elevated his team largely on his own. I would say the others went to teams that grew around them into contenders......I suppose you could say the Falcons didn't surround Vick with all that much, but he didn't take them all that far either. Most other high picks are going into crappy situations, and the team doesn't progress quickly enough to give the QB a winning situation.

But one quibble......isn't Bledsoe a bold? 8th all-time passing yards, 15th in TDs, etc.....good longevity so he's up there in just about everything good and bad, but I'd say he was a successful pick.

Drew Bledsoe NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[wartyOne]

Those are both great lists, Warty. I think the thing is that there is just so much that goes into a successful QB, both from his end and what he's surrounded with. Of those bolded players, it seems like Manning is the only one that truly elevated his team largely on his own. I would say the others went to teams that grew around them into contenders......I suppose you could say the Falcons didn't surround Vick with all that much, but he didn't take them all that far either. Most other high picks are going into crappy situations, and the team doesn't progress quickly enough to give the QB a winning situation.

But one quibble......isn't Bledsoe a bold? 8th all-time passing yards, 15th in TDs, etc.....good longevity so he's up there in just about everything good and bad, but I'd say he was a successful pick.

Drew Bledsoe NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

He was another one (Palmer being the main one) that I waffled on. Early in his career he was pretty good, but for the majority of his career, he didn't really do anything (playoffs, pro-bowls, etc). He did throw for a lot of yards, though which is why I considered him productive. I definitely wouldn't call him elite, which is more what I was shooting for with the emboldened QB's.

 

[Flyingiguana]

I don't think you can justify that though.

AFCE
New England: 6th round pick Brady. Arguably the best QB in the game.
New York: 1st round (5th pick overall) Sanchez. Bust.
Buffalo: 7th round pick Fitzpatrick. Up and down. Productive, though.
Miami: Honestly, I don't know who their QB is. They have Losman, Henne and Moore who played games last year. Losman went in the first, Henne went in the second and both are terrible. Moore was an undrafted FA, and had the best numbers/wins-losses of that bunch.

AFCW
Denver: 1st round pick Tebow. NFL QB in name only. Nothing about this guy is a success.
KC: 7th round pick Cassel. Serviceable QB. Nothing overly special or detrimental.
SD: 1st round pick Rivers. Bonafide star.
Oakland: 1st round picks Campbell and Palmer. Both on their second teams. Neither is very good.

AFCS
Houston: 3rd round pick Schaub. Inconsistent, but mostly pretty good when healthy.
Indy: Currently sans QB, but for argument sake, we'll keep Manning here. 1st pick overall, and one of the top QB's ever.
Jacksonville: 1st round pick Gabbert. Too early to tell, but he's been bad to date.
Tennessee: 6th round pick Hasselbeck. Nearing the end, but has been a good QB to date.

AFCN
Pittsburgh: 1st round pick Roethlisberger. Elite QB
Cincinnati: 2nd round pick Dalton. Too early to tell, but looks good so far.
Cleveland: 3rd round pick McCoy. Already looking to be replaced.
Baltimore: 1st round pick Flacco. Above average, but not elite.

NFCE
NY: 1st pick overall Manning. Really came into elite status this year. Has been above average before that. If he continues to play the way he did this year, he's elite.
Washington: Same as Miami, I have no idea who the QB is here. Grossman was a 1st round bust who was all but out of the league when he landed in DC. Beck was a 2nd round pick. Both combined for a 1-8 record. I don't know who played in the other 7 games.
Philadelphia: 1st pick overall Vick. I'll count him as a good QB. Not elite.
Dallas: UDFA Romo. If Vick is good, so is Romo. Not elite.

NFCW
SF: 1st overall pick Smith. Has been a disappointment if not an outright bust.
ARZ: We'll say Kolb because of what they gave up for him. 2nd round pick. Not enough sample size to say for sure.
Seattle: 2nd round pick Jackson. Terrible.
StL: 1st overall pick Bradford. Not enough sample size, but underwhelming to date.

NFCS
NO: 2nd round pick Brees. Arguably the best QB in the game today.
TB: 1st round pick Freeman. Underwhelming to this point, but too early to tell.
Car: 1st pick overall Newton. Seems good if he continues at this pace.
Atl: 1st round pick Ryan. Above average, but not elite.

NFCN
GB: 1st round pick Rodgers. Arguably the best QB in the game today.
Minn: 1st round pick Ponder. Looks like a bust, but too early to tell.
Det: 1st pick overall Stafford. Small sample size due to injury, but impressive when healthy.
Chicago: 1st round pick Cutler. Above average, but not elite.

It's more diverse than you'd think, and a lot of those first rounders are terrible. As Crimson said in another post, the only reason they're in there is because there's more invested in them.

look at the top 15 qb's and two thirds were taken in the 1st round. there might be a lot of busts in there but that is normally where u find a top qb.

just because a team takes someone like gabbert doesn't mean the 1st round is a toss up.

 

[Flyingiguana]

He was another one (Palmer being the main one) that I waffled on. Early in his career he was pretty good, but for the majority of his career, he didn't really do anything (playoffs, pro-bowls, etc). He did throw for a lot of yards, though which is why I considered him productive. I definitely wouldn't call him elite, which is more what I was shooting for with the emboldened QB's.

he was elite before the injury

 

[dredinis21]

Flying, you have no concept of what Clyde, or I as I have hopped onto this line of thinking, even means when he references Kaep vs. Smith. You are making it sound as if Clyde believes him to be Cam Newton when the reality is that he is simply counter arguing that CK ain't exactly chopped liver. Clyde's initial thoughts on CK vs. Smith was that if Smith were asking for 10 mil per to man the 31st ranked passing offense, we would be better off playing CK and his 1.3 mil per contract and signing others with the saved money to further solidify this team. At no point have I ever seen Clyde compare CK to Tom Brady, Randall Cunningham, Steve Young, Joe Montana, or any other franchise savior. Save the fucking rhetoric.

CK is a 4 yr starter in college. He is extremely athletic and has never had his work ethic brought into question (cough Nate Davis cough). The Niners moved UP in the draft to get him and he has one of the best QB coaches in the league overseeing his progress. If Harbaugh thinks this kid is ready to play, then I believe him whole heartedly. Stop with the "check out who else was drafted in the second round!" bullshit and look at the reality. Teams with reputations of good QB development tend to DRAFT AND DEVELOP QBs according to THEIR SYSTEMS! Is it any surprise that teams like the Niners of the 80's and 90's, Green Bay of the 90's and now presently, or the Eagles over the last couple years have developed players that fit their particular systems? Meanwhile perennial losers like the Rams draft the Tony Banks' of the worlds. It's not rocket science. If Nolan or Sing drafted CK, I would be worried. But we have a man at the helm that has a proven track record of developing QBs and I will trust in his abilities. Notice that not once in my entire rant did I recognize CK as our "savior". Just sayin'.

 

[Flyingiguana]

if smith was asking for too much we would have to find a starter. if kap can beat him out then great.

the rumors were that dalton was our guy if we could have gotten into the 1st round. then they end up taking a different qb when dalton is gone. i was very skiddish about the pick to begin with because of that, also because kap was a late riser based on workouts.

 

[wartyOne]

he was elite before the injury

No he wasn't. The year that he got injured was the only "elite" year he put up. If he were elite, like Brady, he would have returned to his status. He's been very average since that injury. I think that one year is the aberration.

This still rocks:

 

[wartyOne]

look at the top 15 qb's and two thirds were taken in the 1st round. there might be a lot of busts in there but that is normally where u find a top qb.

just because a team takes someone like gabbert doesn't mean the 1st round is a toss up.

The first pick overall is 50/50 when the pick is a QB. How is that not a toss up? There are as many David Carrs as there are Eli Mannings (I guess you could say the same for Russells versus Peytons).

And again, that list is highly indicative of a very important fact. 1st round QB's are allowed a much longer leash, because they come with a much higher price. The fact that there are so many first round busts is exactly the argument.

Who would you say is better of the following, or in order if you prefer: Tom Brady, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Montana, Donovan McNabb, Cade McNown, Tony Romo, Jeff Garcia, Tony Banks? Hell, throw in Dan Marino and Peyton Manning.