2nd round qb's and overly optimistic fans

[Flyingiguana]

from 1995 to 2008

todd collins
tony banks
jake plummer - should i swap plummer and drunkenmiller?
charlie batch
shaun king - good thing walsh missed this one
quincy carter
maques tuiweie !@#!$!poso - fucking finger twister
drew brees - 32nd pick and maybe one of the best draft moves ever
kellen clemens
tavaris jackson
kevin kolb - ya he's better than alex smith ROFL
john beck
drew stanton
brian brohm
chad henne

plummer and brees were projected first rounders who dropped, none of the rest were projected to be 1st rounders. many of those teams thought they had their qb of the future and ended up finding out the hard way they didn't.

this is why i want us to get another qb that we can develop.

 

[clyde_carbon]

You seem to be pretty optimistic about Clausen.

I'll let you take a wild guess where he was drafted.

 

[Rvnight18]

You seem to be pretty optimistic about Clausen.

I'll let you take a wild guess where he was drafted.

and game.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

This is pretty much the case for all draft picks in all sports. Potential is overvalued.

 

[Flyingiguana]

You seem to be pretty optimistic about Clausen.

I'll let you take a wild guess where he was drafted.

he's in the brees/plummer category of 1st round talents that dropped. i believe favre was another 1st round talent that went 2nd round, but not 100%.

kap falls into the category of the majority of 2nd rounders who usually teams and fans believe can turn into a legit qb based primarily on their physical ability.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

he's in the brees/plummer category of 1st round talents that dropped. i believe favre was another 1st round talent that went 2nd round, but not 100%.

kap falls into the category of the majority of 2nd rounders who usually teams and fans believe can turn into a legit qb based primarily on their physical ability.

What distinguishes that from the others? There must have been some reason those two fell, no? And some reason why the others either fell or were taken early.

Btw, does this mean Andy Dalton is doomed to failure, or does he fall into that magical exception as well?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Additional problem with this line of thinking. Second round QBs are good enough to get thrown into games fairly early in their career, but often don't get as much of a chance as high first rounders if they struggle because the team didn't invest as much in them. If Smith were a second round pick, for instance, he probably would have been benched after his rookie season. He sure as shit wouldn't have made it to his seventh season.

I'm far from sold on Kaepernick at this point, but I certainly haven't given up on him. All indications are that Harbaugh hand-picked him to be his QB. He's had a pretty good track record with QBs so far.

 

[Flyingiguana]

What distinguishes that from the others? There must have been some reason those two fell, no? And some reason why the others either fell or were taken early.

Btw, does this mean Andy Dalton is doomed to failure, or does he fall into that magical exception as well?

i'm simply putting some perspective on 2nd round qb's. u can either look at the evidence or not. if u don't want to consider it, your choice.

but don't let me come back and say i told u so when we go with kap only to have him not turn into the qb we thought he could. over the next couple years i actually wouldn't mind spending a 1st on a qb unless we get some real confirmation that we finally do have that franchise qb on the roster.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

i'm simply putting some perspective on 2nd round qb's. u can either look at the evidence or not. if u don't want to consider it, your choice.

but don't let me come back and say i told u so when we go with kap only to have him not turn into the qb we thought he could. over the next couple years i actually wouldn't mind spending a 1st on a qb unless we get some real confirmation that we finally do have that franchise qb on the roster.

And that doesn't answer any of the three questions I posed.

As for that part in bold, isn't that Alex Smith's career trajectory? Aren't we still there with him? I'm not saying to give up on him, and I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but your reasoning seems to shift dramatically depending on the QB you are discussing. Not to mention that you have created a meaningless exception that apparently applies to the second rounder you have suggested we pursue.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

And as for taking a QB in the first round next year, you'd better hope we don't make the playoffs in that case. Guys taken from 20 on in the first round:

Tim Tebow
Brady Quinn
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Rex Grossman
Patrick Ramsey
Jim Druckenmiller

So that's a 1/7 success rate. Not much more promising than taking the second rounder.

 

[Flyingiguana]

20% turn into legit #1's from that list. i'm giving brees, plummer and kolb passing grades, just to up the numbers to 20%. 2nd round qb's seem to be a false sense of security that those teams have solved their long-term problems at qb. i just don't want to fall into that trap.

dalton and kolb might be the only two who werent projected 1st rounders to be legit #1's. dalton too early to tell and the cards don't seem sold on kolb.

brees and plummer were the best on the list, but both should have went in the 1st. brees' height hurt him and his 'weak arm'. plummer should have been our 1st rounder.

 

[Flyingiguana]

And as for taking a QB in the first round next year, you'd better hope we don't make the playoffs in that case. Guys taken from 20 on in the first round:

Tim Tebow
Brady Quinn
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Rex Grossman
Patrick Ramsey
Jim Druckenmiller

So that's a 1/7 success rate. Not much more promising than taking the second rounder.

most likely would have to move up, unless someone falls.

 

[Flyingiguana]

And that doesn't answer any of the three questions I posed.

As for that part in bold, isn't that Alex Smith's career trajectory? Aren't we still there with him? I'm not saying to give up on him, and I'm not saying Kaepernick is the answer, but your reasoning seems to shift dramatically depending on the QB you are discussing. Not to mention that you have created a meaningless exception that apparently applies to the second rounder you have suggested we pursue.

it isn't a meaningless exception. i believe clausen is very similar to brees in skill set and both ended up dropping from being projected 1st round picks.

smith got injured and lost a year. not to same as quincy carter or tony banks who did nothing. tony banks was a solid back up. charlie batch the same. right now, that could be the upside of kap.

 

[numone9er]

What about Andy Dalton? He's already had a better career than most of the guys on that list.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

it isn't a meaningless exception. i believe clausen is very similar to brees in skill set and both ended up dropping from being projected 1st round picks.

smith got injured and lost a year. not to same as quincy carter or tony banks who did nothing. tony banks was a solid back up. charlie batch the same. right now, that could be the upside of kap.

Saying a guy "should have been a first round pick" is meaningless. He wasn't a first round pick, and a lot of very QB-needy teams passed on him twice.

As for Smith, he had a historically bad rookie season. Granted it was on a downright bad offensive unit, but that's the lot of a first overall pick. Seven years in, injury aside, Smith has shown that he's an average starting QB. He's hardly come close to living up to expectations.

People are interested in Kap precisely because he has upside, even if it's unknown. It can be hard to see upside in Smith right now. He's a known quantity, and what we know is only mediocre. Kap has the physical tools to be great. I think it's pretty understandable that some people are calling for him to start.

 

[clyde_carbon]

he's in the brees/plummer category of 1st round talents that dropped. i believe favre was another 1st round talent that went 2nd round, but not 100%.

kap falls into the category of the majority of 2nd rounders who usually teams and fans believe can turn into a legit qb based primarily on their physical ability.

Why was he a first round talent? Because Kiper and McShay said so? Apparently no NFL teams thought he was 1st round talent. And NFL teams have shown that they are willing to take QBs early, even if it might be a reach (some argued Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Sanchez, etc.)

 

[numone9er]

Why was he a first round talent? Because Kiper and McShay said so? Apparently no NFL teams thought he was 1st round talent. And NFL teams have shown that they are willing to take QBs early, even if it might be a reach (some argued Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Sanchez, etc.)

I don't recall McShay having him in the first round. I know Kiper and him disagreed on that one if memory serves me correctly.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I don't recall McShay having him in the first round. I know Kiper and him disagreed on that one if memory serves me correctly.

It was just hyperbole. I was just saying that just because he was viewed by the media as a first rounder doesn't mean that he actually is.

There were a bunch of us on ESPN that said he wasn't a first round talent in 2010, including myself.

 

[deep9er]

from 1995 to 2008

todd collins
tony banks
jake plummer - should i swap plummer and drunkenmiller?
charlie batch
shaun king - good thing walsh missed this one
quincy carter
maques tuiweie !@#!$!poso - fucking finger twister
drew brees - 32nd pick and maybe one of the best draft moves ever
kellen clemens
tavaris jackson
kevin kolb - ya he's better than alex smith ROFL
john beck
drew stanton
brian brohm
chad henne

plummer and brees were projected first rounders who dropped, none of the rest were projected to be 1st rounders. many of those teams thought they had their qb of the future and ended up finding out the hard way they didn't.

this is why i want us to get another qb that we can develop.

all NFL teams look to develop the best QB's they can, they don't just sit back and assume the #1 guy is forever.

of course Ballke and Harbaugh are always looking at EVERY possible QB. if they can find better prospects AND obtain them, they will.

 

[MHSL82]

Saying a guy "should have been a first round pick" is meaningless. He wasn't a first round pick, and a lot of very QB-needy teams passed on him twice.

As for Smith, he had a historically bad rookie season. Granted it was on a downright bad offensive unit, but that's the lot of a first overall pick. Seven years in, injury aside, Smith has shown that he's an average starting QB. He's hardly come close to living up to expectations.

People are interested in Kap precisely because he has upside, even if it's unknown. It can be hard to see upside in Smith right now. He's a known quantity, and what we know is only mediocre. Kap has the physical tools to be great. I think it's pretty understandable that some people are calling for him to start.

Not a big deal, but is mediocre above or below average? If it's slightly above average (or heck, even at average), then I'm cool with that assessment.