Series Thread: 2023 Post season playoff thread ( dream or reality )

[wazzu31]

Mariners chances of making the playoffs as of this evenings post 3 game win streak is 40.4% according to fangraphs
Toronto's odds of post season is 66.1%

Yet we are only .5 ( 1/2 game back ) in the standings with TOR.
same losses at 55 and Blue Jays have 1 extra win 67 wins vs SEA 66.

Why the huge % number difference in odds to make the playoffs?

Haven’t looked at the numbers but Toronto should have a better percentage. Seattle is neck and neck with Toronto but with the Rays being completely depleted and eventually IMO moral is going to make them eventually just quit, the Yankees spiraling down the toilet and the Red Sox being average, Toronto should have percentage advantage. But fact is, if the Mariners play like they have for the past month over how they did for the first 3 then they will be competing for the 2nd WC not the final one.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Haven’t looked at the numbers but Toronto should have a better percentage. Seattle is neck and neck with Toronto but with the Rays being completely depleted and eventually IMO moral is going to make them eventually just quit, the Yankees spiraling down the toilet and the Red Sox being average, Toronto should have percentage advantage. But fact is, if the Mariners play like they have for the past month over how they did for the first 3 then they will be competing for the 2nd WC not the final one.

That could very well be the math matrix they are using to come up with the % probability to post season.

Yesterdays % stats had the Blue Jays predicted for 2 more wins than the Mariners at seasons end. How that equates to a 20% swing in the numbers is beyond me.

Maybe .gov is behind it all cooking the books.

 

[seattlefan75]

Hey Jerry Dipoto wanted to let everyone know that if the season ended today we would be in the playoffs

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Well as we all know today Sat Aug 19 we are AHEAD of TOR and are odss % is still lower rated than the Blue Jays

Just keep winning Mariners

M's odds at post season as of 8-19 am ( prior to todays games ) = 48.9%
TOR odds = 57.2%

They have TOR predicted to win 1 more game than the Mariners at season end = 88.6 wins TOR and 87.7 Mariners predicted wins.

Who doesn't love the underdog

We stay hot and we could catch HOU and then be on the footsteps of TX

 

[seattlefan75]

SWEEEEEP! The Mariners are just 3 games behind the Rangers who just lost 3 in a row. For the next 12 games they will face teams under .500. The Rangers are entering a two series stretch against playoff contending teams and Houston is entering into a series against the red sox.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Some good stuff brewing !

fanGraphs still showing TOR as higher % to make the plaoffs ?? Yet they show the Mariners much higher % to clinch bye vs TOR clinching bye ?? makes zero sense.

I do not wanna jynx anything so I am going to continue and update regularly. headed to dentist appt so no numbers till later

 

[Cloud]

Well as we all know today Sat Aug 19 we are AHEAD of TOR and are odss % is still lower rated than the Blue Jays

Just keep winning Mariners

M's odds at post season as of 8-19 am ( prior to todays games ) = 48.9%
TOR odds = 57.2%

They have TOR predicted to win 1 more game than the Mariners at season end = 88.6 wins TOR and 87.7 Mariners predicted wins.

Who doesn't love the underdog

We stay hot and we could catch HOU and then be on the footsteps of TX

The remaining schedule favors TOR imo.

Toughest Remaining:
-For the M's here are the toughest remaining opponents: LAD(3), TBR(4), TEX(7), HOU(3) -- yes, that's still a whopping 14 games left against the Dodgers, Rays, and Rangers.

-For TOR: BAL(3), TBR(6), TEX(4), BOS(3)

Weakest Remaining:
M's: OAK(6), KC(3), CWS(3), NYM(3), LAA(3)
TOR: OAK(3), KC(3), COL(3), WAS(3), CLE(3), NYY(6)

Just from the path of least resistance alone, I'd say it slightly favors TOR. They still gotta play these games.

 

[WizardHawk]

Exactly. Even if the M's move ahead of both Texas and Houston in the coming days I'll still be skeptical about their chances.

It's going to come down to the last 10 games of the year. None of this matters if they can't play both the rangers and stros strongly those last two weeks.

At least they have gotten closer than it looked like they would over most of the season. They have a legit chance.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Exactly. Even if the M's move ahead of both Texas and Houston in the coming days I'll still be skeptical about their chances.

It's going to come down to the last 10 games of the year. None of this matters if they can't play both the rangers and stros strongly those last two weeks.

At least they have gotten closer than it looked like they would over most of the season. They have a legit chance.

agree 100%

Their destiny and / or fate is in their own hands.

They can win it or lose it playing HOU and TEX the least games of the regular season.

If they go into a big funk slide before that they can be in real math trouble and far too far behind.

Right now they are as hot as a $2 pistol and need to ride the momentum as long as possible and continue to gain ground as fast as possible.

There may come a time in another week where they fall back to playing .500 ball and that is OK for a 6-7-8 game stretch.

AVOID losing 4 of 6. avoid losing 7 of 10. That is what will hurt their chances.

They have some serious MOJO going on and gotta feel it and get some swagger in the stride.

The Seattle Mariners are the talk of ever MLB sports channel right now ! I LOVE IT !!

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Well well well ... what do we have here ...

drum roll .......... Mariners % odds to make the playoffs as of right now after games Tues Aug 22 is
67.5%

TOR odds to make the playoffs ... 66.4%

 

[Cloud]

Well well well ... what do we have here ...

drum roll .......... Mariners % odds to make the playoffs as of right now after games Tues Aug 22 is
67.5%

TOR odds to make the playoffs ... 66.4%

Thinking a large of this flipping into the M’s favor doesn’t have much to do with M’s vs TOR for the last spot but moreso the losing streak of the Rangers. Both Astros and M’s now have a clear path for the division title.

Thinking maybe the Rangers may have gone cold a bit too soon (nicer if it was against the M’s?! ) or it could just be they are now feeling the pressure and collapse the rest of the way.

Captain obvious comment from me here but all 3 teams in the west now control their own destiny. And TOR control theirs for the last spot. Really thinking now 2 WC will come out of the west, TB with the other.

 

[wazzu31]

Well well well ... what do we have here ...

drum roll .......... Mariners % odds to make the playoffs as of right now after games Tues Aug 22 is
67.5%

TOR odds to make the playoffs ... 66.4%

Well with the new metrics that are coming out are really down on the Rangers. All of the AL West predictions on who is going to win on all the national shows are between the Astros and Mariners…..but I am still going out on a limb and saying the Rays won’t make the playoffs

 

[wazzu31]

Exactly. Even if the M's move ahead of both Texas and Houston in the coming days I'll still be skeptical about their chances.

It's going to come down to the last 10 games of the year. None of this matters if they can't play both the rangers and stros strongly those last two weeks.

At least they have gotten closer than it looked like they would over most of the season. They have a legit chance.

With having Tex and Hou for the last 10 the Mariners really need to pad wins. Pad wins and they only have to go 5-5 against them. Texas’ pitching seems to be having issues and no idea what’s up with the Astros, but the Mariners have temporarily imploded that franchise.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

With having Tex and Hou for the last 10 the Mariners really need to pad wins. Pad wins and they only have to go 5-5 against them. Texas’ pitching seems to be having issues and no idea what’s up with the Astros, but the Mariners have temporarily imploded that franchise.

Just play hard and fight like hell to win every single inning of every single game they play for the rest of the season ( and post season )

I am feeling pretty confident they are making the playoffs. You do not put up the record they have over the past 2 months of baseball and not be a playoff caliber team. I think their recent success is simply they are believing it themselves and each guy is doing his part to help the team win.

Just hope our young starting arms can hold up under the extended game pressure of additional innings.

Skip will get very creative those last 7 games of the season and sell out completely to minimum go 5-5 or scratch out a couple more wins and pull off a 7-3 stunner. He should treat all 7 of those games like playoff games and bring in starters to pitch 2-3 innings in relief if that is what is needed to win the majority of those crucial games.

But winning as many series as possible over the next 3-4 weeks to get to that final homestand is crucial.

The team has proven it can play .650 - .700 win % baseball WITHOUT Kelenic in the line up.
They need to be very careful how they integrate him back into the swing of things, so they do not mess up the current MOJO.
My feelings are he needs to earn playing time back with results at the plate ( his defense has never been questioned )

 

[WizardHawk]

We don't know which Kelenic we are getting back. As guilty as he feels about being stupid in the first place, I could see him over play at the plate again and be the strike out machine we've seen from him.

While there are reasons to be upbeat with where they are on the standings, it is also true that the bullpen is a huge weakness for this team. They don't have a single arm you feel good about going against a dangerous team up one in the final inning.

You can add their baserunning blunders and fielding fiascos as well as how bad their team approach at the plate is.

They MUST carry a good lead going into the last 10. I don't want to have to pray that the Jays continue their side to back step into the last WC slot.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

We don't know which Kelenic we are getting back. As guilty as he feels about being stupid in the first place, I could see him over play at the plate again and be the strike out machine we've seen from him.

While there are reasons to be upbeat with where they are on the standings, it is also true that the bullpen is a huge weakness for this team. They don't have a single arm you feel good about going against a dangerous team up one in the final inning.

You can add their baserunning blunders and fielding fiascos as well as how bad their team approach at the plate is.

They MUST carry a good lead going into the last 10. I don't want to have to pray that the Jays continue their side to back step into the last WC slot.

True - scary true.

Put the guys in the late innings that are strike thowers with the best control to work in and out and up and down in the zone. And also when to NOT throw strikes ( Munoz - the 0-2 count ball over the heart of the plate cookie )

 

[cezero]

M's have a much worse record at home than on the road. These next 2 series against bottom feeders is super important.

Wish we could be playing the TX teams on the road instead of at home to close out the season. This next month is not going to be good for my heart. Seriously stocking up on healthy foods lol.

Jerry has clearly never valued the closer position, and I'd hate for the closer by committee approach to be the downfall of this team.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

HOU - TX and TOR ALL LOST today

We need a win tonite !!

Oh and F*#K Steve Jobs and Apple TV+ in the ass with a 36" Louisville Slugger

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

HOU - TX and TOR ALL LOST today

We need a win tonite !!

Oh and F*#K Steve Jobs and Apple TV+ in the ass with a 36" Louisville Slugger

Unbelievable .. Houston had a no hitter going late in that game and led 1-0 until the bottom of the 9th …. Unreal

 

[cezero]

miller isn't going to last much longer so off to the bullpen funhouse we go.

he's throwing 95 right in the middle of the plate over and over.