Series Thread: 2023 Post season playoff thread ( dream or reality )

[MarinersBestFan]

We have our game threads ... and regular chatter topics. And we have the encyclopedia of ulmax scattered about.

Would be nice to have a thread devoted to our Playoff hopes and aspirations - thoughts - frustrations - support - criticism ... you name it.
If it applies to our 2023 playoffs run ... let it rip.

I was shocked to see our fangraphs current wild card odds as high as it is today. Posting the table as a pic insert table. ( Not as smart as NWinAZ with linking to web pages )

I simply googled MLB playoff odds and a site appears that should update daily as teams win or lose.

I think catching the Rangers or Astros is a pipe dream so focusing on wild Card at the moment, but if we peel off another 8 game winning streak and Texas manages to lose a few games, we could gain some ground on the division.

Here is the table

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Well looks like I am high tech enough to attach a saved jpeg picture I made from msft paint.

29.2% odds to clinch wild card currently. 1st I have tracked such a stat in a few years.
I posted to the SDO series thread earlier and my total guess was I think we were maybe 10-15% chance my hunch only ( no official reference )

I am a believer they can do it. Why else be a fan if you do not believe?

To make it happen they have a bunch of polishing up to do top to bottom or they will be on the outside looking in come October.

Just simply make better baseball decisions every chance you can.

yesterdays game Raliegh has to know on the play at the plate on the comebacker to the pitcher he HAS to let the ball travel nearly all the way to the plate vs catching it 2-3 feet infront of the plate. that decision resulted in no tag and the run scored

 

[ulmax]

My guess..is.royals..5.games win .Astros 1
If 2 nice .it's a 2 game strait up.advance..
Athletics.. .2 go on the limb and say 2 Sox.

Royals..5
Astros .1
White Sox..2
Mets 2
10

73..
Need win..15.to 20 more.
90-93..
I yi..yi..

 

[ulmax]

3 cinncin4 Tampa 3angels 3vdidgers3 athletics.
10
But only 9 games left..

Yeah .try to winn them all...
Lolollo

 

[MarinersBestFan]

3 cinncin4 Tampa 3angels 3vdidgers3 athletics.
10
But only 9 games left..

Yeah .try to winn them all...
Lolollo

This will go 9 pages before tomorrow noon !

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Keep playing like this it'll turn into a freaking nightmare.

 

[ulmax]

This will go 9 pages before tomorrow noon !

Only maybe ...but with Crawford and kelenic out..
Is hard to say.....it looks more like .
Not .than..yes .cuz of the 3 series at the end.
Plus 2 guys out...

 

[ulmax]

Right when you get the guys who..

can help.
2 guys go down..

It's like insult..to injurie...

 

[ulmax]

So I'll not make any.predictions..

And just see ..how they play.
Crawford..7 day..
Kelenic..idk..
Bull pen..did not hold K.C...they could
Have. Should.have....

Maybe even would have....
Ohh well..
Forget it..

 

[seattlefan75]

Well the key thing as we play the numbers game and looking at the schedule we really need to have a strong month of August going into the first week of September. We need to make a strong run as the final 10 games of the season are against the Rangers and Astros. We can't go into those 10 games barely hanging on 1 game out of the wild card.

 

[wazzu31]

We have our game threads ... and regular chatter topics. And we have the encyclopedia of ulmax scattered about.

Would be nice to have a thread devoted to our Playoff hopes and aspirations - thoughts - frustrations - support - criticism ... you name it.
If it applies to our 2023 playoffs run ... let it rip.

I was shocked to see our fangraphs current wild card odds as high as it is today. Posting the table as a pic insert table. ( Not as smart as NWinAZ with linking to web pages )

I simply googled MLB playoff odds and a site appears that should update daily as teams win or lose.

I think catching the Rangers or Astros is a pipe dream so focusing on wild Card at the moment, but if we peel off another 8 game winning streak and Texas manages to lose a few games, we could gain some ground on the division.

Here is the table

View attachment 337231

After how they have played recently their odds should be high. Unless they fall off of a cliff it is between them and the Jays. Both are in identical scenarios where there is zero chance of winning the division but the teams in their division behind are fading fast. They are talking about abolishing divisions with expansion coming up and the Central automatically getting a team is screwing the M’s up.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Well the key thing as we play the numbers game and looking at the schedule we really need to have a strong month of August going into the first week of September. We need to make a strong run as the final 10 games of the season are against the Rangers and Astros. We can't go into those 10 games barely hanging on 1 game out of the wild card.

They just need to avoid losing streaks of 3 or more games like currently. Lose 3 in a row then you need to win 3 in a row just to get back to .500 and .500 is not going to gain ground on TOR ( unless they get mired in a losing streak of their own )

They are getting their asses handed to them in every extra inning affair and 9th inning losses.

 

[WizardHawk]

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

No legit closer could be the reason this team misses the playoffs

 

[wazzu31]

No legit closer could be the reason this team misses the playoffs

Trading the closer.

 

[ulmax]

I expect them to figure it out...
But they may not ..
We won't know...till it happens..though..
Could be Campbell or.few other guys.

They obviously..thought they could get by.
With Munoz..
That ain't happening.
They need a new plan..

Need Crawford back..and Astros coming up.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

The Mariners are just playing sloppy stupid ball right now.

So many boneheaded plays in tonites game it's a wonder they pulled it off.

If they do happen to sneak into a WC spot ( very doubtful ). They will never get a sniff of an ALCS game with the current roster / players on the field.

 

[MarinersBestFan]

Mariners chances of making the playoffs as of this evenings post 3 game win streak is 40.4% according to fangraphs
Toronto's odds of post season is 66.1%

Yet we are only .5 ( 1/2 game back ) in the standings with TOR.
same losses at 55 and Blue Jays have 1 extra win 67 wins vs SEA 66.

Why the huge % number difference in odds to make the playoffs?

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Trading the closer.

That's a much better way of saying it.

 

[seattlefan75]

I think it is all very dependent on how we finish this month and this series is a good example. I would definitely take a series win 3/4 games against a top of the draft team. We have a hand full of more series against teams like that or below .500 up until the final 10 games of the season. Toronto starting September 11 will have to go through an absolute gauntlet of tough teams to finish the season. The rays will be without their child molesting short stop so we will see if that effects their team.

I am very pleased and confident with where this team is and what Jerry has done.