2023 Mock Draft Simulator Challenge

[Wolvie]

Found this cool draft simulator: 2023 NFL Mock Draft Simulator | PFF

Here is the challenge: Can you trade down in the draft to pick up at least three 2024 1st round picks, still have draft one player in the first round , and at least 7 players in the second and third rounds (at least three of which are 2nd rounders)?

Conditions: use the default draft settings, and when trading, you have to have at least a 75% likelihood of the trade going through, and then you can use the "force trade" button. Then, post your results here.

This is an exercise to see if we can get enough draft capital to move up to take a franchise QB next year without punting this year's draft.

 

[Wolvie]

Here is my first crack at it: I got four additional 2024 first round picks (LV, CHI, NYJ, and KC), still picked in the first round (pick 30), three 2nd round picks, and four 3rd round picks. Next year I had to trade away a ton of picks, though so for 2024 the Seahawks would only have 5 picks, all in the first round, but in this draft would still have 3 or 4 more picks remaining (I only simulated the first three rounds).

 

[flyerhawk]

I think you are a little too obsessed with draft capital for next year.

We are going to trade 2 4ths, 2 5th and 2 6th plus 6 slots in the 1st round to get a 1st rounder next year?

 

[blstoker]

Wait, you're forcing trades? The chances of what you were posting before were never going to happen, but you've been forcing the trades to artificially get the results you were getting? How does this in any way create a scenario that may actually happen?

 

[Wolvie]

Wait, you're forcing trades? The chances of what you were posting before were never going to happen, but you've been forcing the trades to artificially get the results you were getting? How does this in any way create a scenario that may actually happen?

There was another simulator where only other teams would offer you trades. This simulator you can offer trades, and teams would often accept them at "10% chance" so I wanted to make it a little more realistic with the 75% marker.

 

[Screamin12th]

This PFF Mock Draft is BS Stroud dropped to me and the raiders were willing to give up every pick they had in the 2023 draft to move up 2 spots and snag him and it was at 100% ( the chance to accept ) this is worse than Madden lol.

 

[flyerhawk]

This PFF Mock Draft is BS Stroud dropped to me and the raiders were willing to give up every pick they had in the 2023 draft to move up 2 spots and snag him and it was at 100% ( the chance to accept ) this is worse than Madden lol.

It's just a toy. I could see the Raiders making a huge move to get a QB though. That's on brand for them.

 

[Anointed One]

It's just a toy. I could see the Raiders making a huge move to get a QB though. That's on brand for them.

That's why I think we could still be a trade partner for them if there is a QB they want when we pick...

 

[flyerhawk]

That's why I think we could still be a trade partner for them if there is a QB they want when we pick...

Certainly possible. A lot will depend on the demand for the QBs.

 

[Screamin12th]

It's just a toy. I could see the Raiders making a huge move to get a QB though. That's on brand for them.

Yes but they wouldn't give up every single last pick in the 2023 draft to move up 2 spots lol and it was still on 100% acceptance chance.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

This PFF Mock Draft is BS Stroud dropped to me and the raiders were willing to give up every pick they had in the 2023 draft to move up 2 spots and snag him and it was at 100% ( the chance to accept ) this is worse than Madden lol.

That's a Mark Davis move

 

[MrS]

The draft thread and the geno thread disappeared for me, what gives?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

The draft thread and the geno thread disappeared for me, what gives?

You put someone on ignore? Like the one who started those two threads?

 

[MrS]

You put someone on ignore? Like the one who started those two threads?

Maybe by accident

Ya thats what I did, all better now

 

[Wolvie]

Yes but they wouldn't give up every single last pick in the 2023 draft to move up 2 spots lol and it was still on 100% acceptance chance.

trading all picks to move up two spots is a lot less in terms of value than what the Bears gave up to move up one spot a couple of years ago. It is definitely possible to get a 2024 first rounder in addition to their 2023 2nd rounder + a later pick to move up two spots.

 

[blstoker]

trading all picks to move up two spots is a lot less in terms of value than what the Bears gave up to move up one spot a couple of years ago. It is definitely possible to get a 2024 first rounder in addition to their 2023 2nd rounder + a later pick to move up two spots.

And that was a stupid trade when they made it. Besides, there's a difference between the #2 pick and the #5 pick in terms of trade value. The difference between 2 and five is huge. If we're looking to trade down with LV, it probably wouldn't take much more than an extra 3rd rounder to get it done. It certainly wouldn't warrant LV to give up an additional 1st round pick. Unless it's a trade to the latter half of the first round, I can't see multiple 1sts being traded to get the #5.

 

[Wolvie]

And that was a stupid trade when they made it. Besides, there's a difference between the #2 pick and the #5 pick in terms of trade value. The difference between 2 and five is huge. If we're looking to trade down with LV, it probably wouldn't take much more than an extra 3rd rounder to get it done. It certainly wouldn't warrant LV to give up an additional 1st round pick. Unless it's a trade to the latter half of the first round, I can't see multiple 1sts being traded to get the #5.

It would come down to the age old "supply/demand" matrix. If there are multiple teams wanting to trade into the 5 spot, then the price gets driven up quickly. If there is only one team wanting the spot, then it would theoretically come relatively cheap. To move up two spots from the 7 to the 5 would still more than likely cost more than a 3rd rounder though. If you are freaked out that your guy isn't going to last an additional two picks, and you are willing to trade up, then you are going to make that trade sweet enough to make sure it goes through.

 

[flyerhawk]

It would come down to the age old "supply/demand" matrix. If there are multiple teams wanting to trade into the 5 spot, then the price gets driven up quickly. If there is only one team wanting the spot, then it would theoretically come relatively cheap. To move up two spots from the 7 to the 5 would still more than likely cost more than a 3rd rounder though. If you are freaked out that your guy isn't going to last an additional two picks, and you are willing to trade up, then you are going to make that trade sweet enough to make sure it goes through.

It would also come down to how much do they really want the remaining QB. It would almost certainly require that 2 of the big 3 were already taken. And it would require that whoever is left is the guy they really wanted.

 

[Wolvie]

It would also come down to how much do they really want the remaining QB. It would almost certainly require that 2 of the big 3 were already taken. And it would require that whoever is left is the guy they really wanted.

Very true. I hope to god that we don't use that pick for that 3rd qb if that is how things played out. I would be ecstatic with either Carter or Anderson Jr. but assuming those guys are off the board, would then love to trade down for a ton of draft capital. This is supposed to be a very deep draft for edge rushers and it would be awesome to get two of them in addition to interior linemen, a top center, and a guard in the first 3 rounds with picks to spare.

 

[flyerhawk]

Very true. I hope to god that we don't use that pick for that 3rd qb if that is how things played out. I would be ecstatic with either Carter or Anderson Jr. but assuming those guys are off the board, would then love to trade down for a ton of draft capital. This is supposed to be a very deep draft for edge rushers and it would be awesome to get two of them in addition to interior linemen, a top center, and a guard in the first 3 rounds with picks to spare.

If there is a QB that they absolutely love then I'm fine with them drafting them. But I hate the idea of taking a QB based on BPA. Too much downside risk.