2023 Mock Draft Simulator Challenge

[blstoker]

It would come down to the age old "supply/demand" matrix. If there are multiple teams wanting to trade into the 5 spot, then the price gets driven up quickly. If there is only one team wanting the spot, then it would theoretically come relatively cheap. To move up two spots from the 7 to the 5 would still more than likely cost more than a 3rd rounder though. If you are freaked out that your guy isn't going to last an additional two picks, and you are willing to trade up, then you are going to make that trade sweet enough to make sure it goes through.

It could possibly cost more than a 3rd, but even then, it would be extremely hard to believe the price would drive up so high as to call for an additional first rounder to move up from 7. Maybe from the 15 or later range.

Honestly, I can only see it even getting that hot if Houston or Indy trade down with Detroit and the QB LV wants is still there and they feel they need to hop over the other QB needy team. I just don't see it happening, but stranger things have transpired during the draft.

 

[Screamin12th]

trading all picks to move up two spots is a lot less in terms of value than what the Bears gave up to move up one spot a couple of years ago. It is definitely possible to get a 2024 first rounder in addition to their 2023 2nd rounder + a later pick to move up two spots.

See thats the thing they wouldn't give up another 1st in 2024 but they would give up every damn pick in the 2023 draft lol. The thing said they refused to trade the 7th pick this year and a first in 2024 but they would give up all their picks in 2023. It's so broken.

 

[MrS]

heres a list of 1st round trade ups for QBs

All 29 times that NFL teams traded up to draft a quarterback

From the bold moves that paid off -- like Patrick Mahomes -- to the many that didn't, here's a rundown of each QB trade-up from the common draft era.

www.espn.com

the ones that netted future firsts generally came from mid 20s into the top 10.

I think it depends on who the player is and how many teams are involved.

The only trade into #5 was jets to browns. the browns are terrible at making trades:

Jets secure the "San-chise" (2009)​

The trade: The Jets send their first-round pick (No. 17 overall), a second-round pick and players Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff and Abram Elam to Cleveland for the Browns' first-round pick (No. 5 overall).

The skinny: Mark Sanchez hung around the league for eight seasons over 10 years and did finish with a winning record as a starter (37-36) and with the Jets (32-29). But his numbers were mostly pedestrian: He finished his career with more interceptions (89) than touchdown passes (86).

 

[Lineman16]

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

This PFF Mock Draft is BS Stroud dropped to me and the raiders were willing to give up every pick they had in the 2023 draft to move up 2 spots and snag him and it was at 100% ( the chance to accept ) this is worse than Madden lol.

lol that's not the first time it's done something like that. I toyed around with it last year and it did the same thing lol. I think the PFF simulator takes the draft value chart a LITTLE too seriously.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

View attachment 320611

Seems like a draft more fit for a 4-3 than a true 3-4...

Also, I'd rather have a Center over a guard, even if it means reaching a bit. Blythe was one of the worst if not the worst starting Center in the NFL.

 

[Wolvie]

Here is a draft I just did from the PFN draft simulator. I think this is my most favorite result yet. Not only do we address our needs in a big way, but we also pick up Houston's and Indy's 2024 first rounders, which both may very well be top 10 picks.

 

[flyerhawk]

Here is a mock that shows the dangers of trading down..

NFL Mock Draft 2023: NFC East teams add offensive weapons; Ravens select Lamar Jackson's eventual replacement

Chicago slides back not once, but twice as AFC South foes get aggressive for QBs

www.cbssports.com

In that mock, the Seahawks lose out on not just Anderson and Carter but Wilson and Murphy as well. IMO, that would be terrible. Granted also has us drafting a WR at 9 which is pretty silly.

 

[blstoker]

Here is a mock that shows the dangers of trading down..

NFL Mock Draft 2023: NFC East teams add offensive weapons; Ravens select Lamar Jackson's eventual replacement

Chicago slides back not once, but twice as AFC South foes get aggressive for QBs

www.cbssports.com

In that mock, the Seahawks lose out on not just Anderson and Carter but Wilson and Murphy as well. IMO, that would be terrible. Granted also has us drafting a WR at 9 which is pretty silly.

I think that analysts are blinding themselves a little bit with the reputation of PC and JS drafting players who aren't necessarily who everyone would think they would draft. "Who do we think the Seahawks wouldn't draft? A WR! Great! Seahawks take Jordan Addison."

 

[MrS]

Here is a mock that shows the dangers of trading down..

NFL Mock Draft 2023: NFC East teams add offensive weapons; Ravens select Lamar Jackson's eventual replacement

Chicago slides back not once, but twice as AFC South foes get aggressive for QBs

www.cbssports.com

In that mock, the Seahawks lose out on not just Anderson and Carter but Wilson and Murphy as well. IMO, that would be terrible. Granted also has us drafting a WR at 9 which is pretty silly.

None of these idiots understand how the seahawks draft. They have not once picked a WR or CB in round one under carroll. not taking one top 10, thats just stupid.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think that analysts are blinding themselves a little bit with the reputation of PC and JS drafting players who aren't necessarily who everyone would think they would draft. "Who do we think the Seahawks wouldn't draft? A WR! Great! Seahawks take Jordan Addison."

I think most of them just look at a needs chart for each team and try to fill in the blanks.

While I would very surprised by the Hawks taking a WR in the 1st round, I don't it is outside the realm of possibility. I do think the Hawks drafting a CB with any of the first 4 picks is exceedingly unlikely. Pete knows defensive backs so unless he saw someone he thought was a surefire can't miss, I doubt he would use an early pick at corner. Especially with Bryant and Woolen likely improving next year.

 

[Wolvie]

Here is a mock that shows the dangers of trading down..

NFL Mock Draft 2023: NFC East teams add offensive weapons; Ravens select Lamar Jackson's eventual replacement

Chicago slides back not once, but twice as AFC South foes get aggressive for QBs

www.cbssports.com

In that mock, the Seahawks lose out on not just Anderson and Carter but Wilson and Murphy as well. IMO, that would be terrible. Granted also has us drafting a WR at 9 which is pretty silly.

Weird that it doesn't state what the Seahawks got from the trade down either, other than the 9 pick.

 

[flyerhawk]

Weird that it doesn't state what the Seahawks got from the trade down either, other than the 9 pick.

Not really relevant to the point of the mock draft.

 

[Wolvie]

Not really relevant to the point of the mock draft.

Sure I suppose, but it went out of its way to say what the details of the first two trades were.

 

[flyerhawk]

Sure I suppose, but it went out of its way to say what the details of the first two trades were.

Let's assume we got a 2024 1st out of it. I would still consider that a failure.

 

[Wolvie]

Let's assume we got a 2024 1st out of it. I would still consider that a failure.

If we drafted a WR then sure. But in that same mock draft we still got a very good edge rusher at 20. At the 9 spot, if there isn't anyone of particular value, then trade it down again to a late first rounder and pick up more draft picks. That would then give us a lot more draft potential, and having Carolina's first rounder next year could be very lucrative.

 

[flyerhawk]

If we drafted a WR then sure. But in that same mock draft we still got a very good edge rusher at 20. At the 9 spot, if there isn't anyone of particular value, then trade it down again to a late first rounder and pick up more draft picks. That would then give us a lot more draft potential, and having Carolina's first rounder next year could be very lucrative.

I'm fine with trade downs but I am far less interested in punting this season so we can build capital for next year than you.

To me, a top 5 pick gets you a really good chance to draft a difference maker. Honestly, I would be fine with them drafting almost ANY position at No. 5 other than RB, S, OT, or WR. And even WR I could be talked into if it were a real franchise defining WR. IMO, rookie contract WRs are a huge value especially now that WRs are getting QB money. But most importantly I want the best player we can get.

 

[Wolvie]

I'm fine with trade downs but I am far less interested in punting this season so we can build capital for next year than you.

To me, a top 5 pick gets you a really good chance to draft a difference maker. Honestly, I would be fine with them drafting almost ANY position at No. 5 other than RB, S, OT, or WR. And even WR I could be talked into if it were a real franchise defining WR. IMO, rookie contract WRs are a huge value especially now that WRs are getting QB money. But most importantly I want the best player we can get.

how is it punting if we still get two first round picks and get extra 2nd and 3rd rounders this year?

 

[flyerhawk]

how is it punting if we still get two first round picks and get extra 2nd and 3rd rounders this year?

More doesn't necessarily mean better. There is a reason why the No. 5 pick There is a reason why the No. 5 pick is worth 2 of our No. 20 picks on standard draft charts.

One thing most teams, likely all of them do, is create draft grade for all of the players they are targeting. If I were running a draft room I would want a scoring system that reflected my draft trade value. So if the No. 5 pick was worth 1700 then I would only want to draft a player that scored at or around 1700.

I'm not against trading down to No 9 if the Panthers are willing to make a big move to 5. FTR, the trade value charts say that the price of Carolina moving up to No. 5 is a late 2nd. Is it worth getting a late 2nd and not getting one of Carter/Anderson/Wilson?

 

[Wolvie]

More doesn't necessarily mean better. There is a reason why the No. 5 pick There is a reason why the No. 5 pick is worth 2 of our No. 20 picks on standard draft charts.

One thing most teams, likely all of them do, is create draft grade for all of the players they are targeting. If I were running a draft room I would want a scoring system that reflected my draft trade value. So if the No. 5 pick was worth 1700 then I would only want to draft a player that scored at or around 1700.

I'm not against trading down to No 9 if the Panthers are willing to make a big move to 5. FTR, the trade value charts say that the price of Carolina moving up to No. 5 is a late 2nd. Is it worth getting a late 2nd and not getting one of Carter/Anderson/Wilson?

Aaron Curry. Never forget. Sure the 5th pick should net you the 5th best player in the draft but that isn't how things shake out. ESPN just did an article on the "redraft of the 2022 draft, and IIRC Woolen was the #2 overall. This draft is notable for being very deep on edge rushers, and we don't need a top 5 pick to snag a perennial probowler. There may be some still available even in the 2nd round. I would rather have more bullets in the gun than gamble on the No. 5