2023 Mock Draft Simulator Challenge

[flyerhawk]

Aaron Curry. Never forget. Sure the 5th pick should net you the 5th best player in the draft but that isn't how things shake out. ESPN just did an article on the "redraft of the 2022 draft, and IIRC Woolen was the #2 overall. This draft is notable for being very deep on edge rushers, and we don't need a top 5 pick to snag a perennial probowler. There may be some still available even in the 2nd round. I would rather have more bullets in the gun than gamble on the No. 5

That isn't how it works.

Every spot in the draft reduces your odds of hitting on your pick. The consensus best pick in the draft is going to be considerably more likely to hit than the 5th. But it is still a probability curve. If that top pick has a 50% chance of hitting then that 5th best choice may have a 20% chance of hitting.

Now theoretically teams could game the system if they have an extremely good scouting system but more times than not that doesn't work out. IMO, the Seahawks DID have a lot of good inside information early in Pete's tenure because he knew a lot of the kids hitting the draft. But after 4 or so years, that was gone and they kept on trying to "beat" the market. And more or less failed.

Last year they stuck pretty much with the consensus choices and came out with a very strong draft. I hope they do the same this year.

And that's why I really hope that they can somehow get one of Anderson or Carter because they are consensus the two best options with neither seemingly being the clear cut choice. The chances of one of them being huge difference makers is much better than the no. 4 or 5 guy.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

And that's why I really hope that they can somehow get one of Anderson or Carter because they are consensus the two best options with neither seemingly being the clear cut choice. The chances of one of them being huge difference makers is much better than the no. 4 or 5 guy.

Yes most rankings have Anderson and Carter and the 3 QBs as top 5, so if both Anderson and Carter get picked top four that leaves the BPA at the #5 spot a QB, so than the Seahawks going BPA should draft the #3 QB right? Because BPA and a position of need......

 

[flyerhawk]

Yes most rankings have Anderson and Carter and the 3 QBs as top 5, so if both Anderson and Carter get picked top four that leaves the BPA at the #5 spot a QB, so than the Seahawks going BPA should draft the #3 QB right? Because BPA and a position of need......

I've said many many times that if Pete and John choose to go for a QB with the top 5 pick, I'm fine with it. Personally I have a lot of reservations about all 3 of the QBs but I also don't follow college football all that much.

I don't think that they would draft a QB just to draft a QB. THAT is what I don't want. And if we choose to not resign Geno and not sign Carr or one of the other better than average QBs on the market, then we will go into the draft not only needing to draft a QB but with the rest of the league knowing that. I would sooner they traded for the top pick then and get the QB they want.

 

[Wolvie]

That isn't how it works.

Every spot in the draft reduces your odds of hitting on your pick. The consensus best pick in the draft is going to be considerably more likely to hit than the 5th. But it is still a probability curve. If that top pick has a 50% chance of hitting then that 5th best choice may have a 20% chance of hitting.

Now theoretically teams could game the system if they have an extremely good scouting system but more times than not that doesn't work out. IMO, the Seahawks DID have a lot of good inside information early in Pete's tenure because he knew a lot of the kids hitting the draft. But after 4 or so years, that was gone and they kept on trying to "beat" the market. And more or less failed.

Last year they stuck pretty much with the consensus choices and came out with a very strong draft. I hope they do the same this year.

And that's why I really hope that they can somehow get one of Anderson or Carter because they are consensus the two best options with neither seemingly being the clear cut choice. The chances of one of them being huge difference makers is much better than the no. 4 or 5 guy.

I would agree with you if what mean to say is that every position picked lowers your odds of hitting. 5 QB's could be off the board before the first Guard. that doesn't mean that the fifth QB has a higher chance of "hitting" than the highest ranked Guard in the draft.

 

[flyerhawk]

I would agree with you if what mean to say is that every position picked lowers your odds of hitting. 5 QB's could be off the board before the first Guard. that doesn't mean that the fifth QB has a higher chance of "hitting" than the highest ranked Guard in the draft.

Sure I agree with that. The actual players drafted may not necessarily reflect best value at their spot, at least based on consensus.

And teams have to determine the marginal value of a drafted player relative to the average salary for that player's position. So the No. 5 QB might be a better risk to take in the draft than the No. 1 RB even if that Number 1 RB is a near can't miss stud like Barkley.

 

[returnofjakedog]

Not a simulator, but I do generally like this guy's mock. Well thought out.

 

[MrS]

Not a simulator, but I do generally like this guy's mock. Well thought out.

Trenton Simpson at 20 would be a huge reach. Watch him play, he is not impressive basically over hyped on his physical aspects.

And middle linebackers just dont go round 1 very often. Much better players we could pick at 20

 

[Wolvie]

PFN MDS Image

This draft simulator got an update and now the trade offers you get aren't as crazy.

 

[flyerhawk]

PFN MDS Image

This draft simulator got an update and now the trade offers you get aren't as crazy.

Gave up the 3rd to get an early 2nd and 2 spots from 5 to 7. Still had a choice of Carter or Anderson.

 

[Wolvie]

View attachment 324643

Gave up the 3rd to get an early 2nd and 2 spots from 5 to 7. Still had a choice of Carter or Anderson.

Bresee seems to typically fall into the 20's. I typically trade down a bunch and snag him, and then have my second pick in the 30's, and pick up a ton of trade capitol. Here is one where I didn't go too crazy:


and

 

[Anointed One]

Yes most rankings have Anderson and Carter and the 3 QBs as top 5, so if both Anderson and Carter get picked top four that leaves the BPA at the #5 spot a QB, so than the Seahawks going BPA should draft the #3 QB right? Because BPA and a position of need......

I don't know - I don't view it as a position of need this year or next year... I would be very disappointed if we chose a QB w/ our #5 overall pick... I'd rather try and trade down a few spots if that was the case...

 

[Anointed One]

Analysis, Mocks, etc are overdrafting the QB position... Like always, giving that position a lot of hype going into the draft... One thing I love about Schneider and Carroll is they don't fall for that... I'm curious to know what their board looks like in terms of BPA...

 

[JMR]

I don't know - I don't view it as a position of need this year or next year... I would be very disappointed if we chose a QB w/ our #5 overall pick... I'd rather try and trade down a few spots if that was the case...

It would seem a bit of a philosophy disconnect to me if we take a QB at 1.5 after just a year ago getting ourselves out of a situation where we have a high-priced QB, because that's where a QB at 1.5 will end up if they prove worthy of the draft position. Pete is so convicted and committed to his style & approach that they were willing to part with one of the best QBs in the league and go with someone who hadn't really seen any success at this level. Using the #5 overall pick on a player who gets you (potentially) right back to what you escaped from a year ago doesn't make sense. Also, that guy wouldn't even be playing this year. Maybe not even on the active roster for any games.

That said, I do understand that we are not just drafting for the 2023 season.... and maybe our 71 y/o coach wants to do his successor a solid and take the best draft pick Pete has had during his entire tenure here and use it to leave behind the next franchise QB? Yeah, I don't buy it either. Use that top pick to improve the worst part of our team from last year. I would rather see us trade down than go QB at 1.5.

 

[flyerhawk]

Yes most rankings have Anderson and Carter and the 3 QBs as top 5, so if both Anderson and Carter get picked top four that leaves the BPA at the #5 spot a QB, so than the Seahawks going BPA should draft the #3 QB right? Because BPA and a position of need......

If the Hawks rate Wil Levis as a top 5 worthy QB and he's available, I'm ok with that. I doubt that the Seahawks have 3 QBs in their top 5 rankings.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

If the Hawks rate Wil Levis as a top 5 worthy QB and he's available, I'm ok with that. I doubt that the Seahawks have 3 QBs in their top 5 rankings.

Any QB the Seahawks rate as a top 5 worthy QB and he's available, I'm OK with. The way things are playing that just may not be possible. In which case I'm for either Anderson or Wilson with the 5th pick.

 

[flyerhawk]

Any QB the Seahawks rate as a top 5 worthy QB and he's available, I'm OK with. The way things are playing that just may not be possible. In which case I'm for either Anderson or Wilson with the 5th pick.

Right. My point was that they may only rate one QB as worthy of a top 5 pick.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Right. My point was that they may only rate one QB as worthy of a top 5 pick.

Sure they "may" only rate one worthy or they "may" rate two worthy and it may be the one they like the most isn't who we figured.
Dang, it's hard waiting for the draft this season, so many possibilities. Drafts are always important but this one seems possibly franchise-changing.

 

[flyerhawk]

Sure they "may" only rate one worthy or they "may" rate two worthy and it may be the one they like the most isn't who we figured.
Dang, it's hard waiting for the draft this season, so many possibilities. Drafts are always important but this one seems possibly franchise-changing.

Having 4 picks in the top 50 certainly could be a big deal.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Almost upon us .. BIG draft coming up! I still wish they’d do round 1-2 first day..