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From the Athletic:
Now, based on my conversations with sources, I’m skeptical of some of that framing. For starters, my understanding is that the scouting department was essentially split on whether Makar or Heiskanen should have been the top prospect on the Flyers’ board at No. 2, and if anything, it was Heiskanen who had more support. But I do fully believe that Patrick wasn’t the favorite of many scouts, and Hextall went with Patrick anyway.
Now, in the end, it’s the GM’s call on every draft pick — particularly such an important one. And it’s important to remember that on draft day, the general industry consensus was that there was a two-player top-tier (Patrick and Nico Hischier), so taking one of the defensemen over Patrick would have been a serious against-the-grain pick and certainly would not have been well-received in the moment in Philadelphia. It’s certainly possible that the added pressure of being “not Nolan Patrick” would have hurt the development of the Flyers’ new selection, and history would have played out differently.
That said, talent generally wins out. And in this case, the organization’s scouts — who are paid to evaluate draft-eligible talent — weren’t sold on Patrick and were right to be skeptical. In retrospect, Hextall (and the rest of the organization) surely wishes that he went with their recommendations over drafting his fellow Brandon Wheat King.
The lesson here? There’s a reason why an organization employs and pays its scouts. While the front office ultimately needs to come to a consensus on a pick, the scouts — with the support of a robust analytics department — should be driving the decision. Otherwise, why send them all over the world in the first place? And if said scouts come to a consensus that doesn’t match up with the public sphere’s view of what the pick “should be?” That’s when a GM has to trust that his organization and his people are right, rather than veto them.
Lesson No. 1: Listen to the scouts
It had been rumored and reported for years that the Flyers’ scouting department wasn’t exactly fully on board with the Patrick pick on draft day in 2017. But it was Flyers senior adviser (and franchise legend) Bob Clarke who removed any doubts that there was legitimate contention in the room that day, famously claiming on the The Cam & Strick Podcast that “none of our scouts wanted Patrick” and strongly implying that if the scouts had their way, the selection would have been Makar, who of course was en route to his first Norris Trophy and a Conn Smythe for added measure.Now, based on my conversations with sources, I’m skeptical of some of that framing. For starters, my understanding is that the scouting department was essentially split on whether Makar or Heiskanen should have been the top prospect on the Flyers’ board at No. 2, and if anything, it was Heiskanen who had more support. But I do fully believe that Patrick wasn’t the favorite of many scouts, and Hextall went with Patrick anyway.
Now, in the end, it’s the GM’s call on every draft pick — particularly such an important one. And it’s important to remember that on draft day, the general industry consensus was that there was a two-player top-tier (Patrick and Nico Hischier), so taking one of the defensemen over Patrick would have been a serious against-the-grain pick and certainly would not have been well-received in the moment in Philadelphia. It’s certainly possible that the added pressure of being “not Nolan Patrick” would have hurt the development of the Flyers’ new selection, and history would have played out differently.
That said, talent generally wins out. And in this case, the organization’s scouts — who are paid to evaluate draft-eligible talent — weren’t sold on Patrick and were right to be skeptical. In retrospect, Hextall (and the rest of the organization) surely wishes that he went with their recommendations over drafting his fellow Brandon Wheat King.
The lesson here? There’s a reason why an organization employs and pays its scouts. While the front office ultimately needs to come to a consensus on a pick, the scouts — with the support of a robust analytics department — should be driving the decision. Otherwise, why send them all over the world in the first place? And if said scouts come to a consensus that doesn’t match up with the public sphere’s view of what the pick “should be?” That’s when a GM has to trust that his organization and his people are right, rather than veto them.
