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From Around the Foghorn
"After the Giants selected NC State catcher Patrick Bailey with the 13th overall pick yesterday, they were the only team with more than 5 selections on Day 2 of the MLB Draft. The Giants used their six picks on a slew of prospects to give them the following draft class.
13. Patrick Bailey, Catcher, North Carolina State
49. Casey Schmitt, 3B/RHP, San Diego State
67. Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State
68. Jimmy Glowenke, SS, Grand Canyon
85. Kyle Harrison, LHP, De La Salle HS (CA)
114. Roderick (RJ) Dabovich, RHP, Arizona State
144. Ryan Murphy, RHP, Le Moyne College
Check out my grades and reports on each pick.
Who the Giants took: Patrick Bailey, Catcher, North Carolina State
13th overall pick
Expected Signing Bonus: Just below or at slot value
Future-Value Grade: 45
Grade: B-
The Giants had some more exciting options available on the board at 13. Prep righty Mick Abel, catcher Tyler Soderstrom, and shortstop Ed Howard were three of my favorite prospects, but Bailey wasn't a stretch. Expected to go in the early to late teens, Bailey's selection fit right in line with his draft stock, and any fans' frustration is more rooted in a preference for different profiles.
Catching is always valued more highly by pro teams than fans and one baseball insider told me they loved what the Giants did by adding Bailey to a system that already has Joey Bart the Giants put them in a great position to have a great replacement for Buster Posey and potentially move the other if they both pan out.
Early reactions focused on Bailey's elite defense behind the plate, but the more I talked to insiders, the more positive reviews his bat got. While Bailey has struggled at times with swing-and-miss, most people I talked to have confidence that he'll be able to be an above-average hitter.
The public scouting community consensus seemed to view his offensive profile as a poor man's comp of Joey Bart with a ceiling for his hit tool around 50 and power at 55 that probably ends up as a 45/55 profile (Bart is more around 55/60 and likely 50/60). However, it seemed that a few insiders believe Bailey has the potential to be above-average across the board.
Bailey's approach helps alleviate some of the contact concerns. Over his career at NC State he walked 86 times in 578 plate appearances alongside 93 strikeouts. In fact, his career triple-slash line of .302/.411/.568 is quite comparable to his former teammate and recently acquired Giants prospect Will Wilson when he played at NC State.
A switch-hitter, Bailey has been equally effective from both sides of the plate, so there does not appear to be too much platoon risk and his makeup gets consistently rave reviews. In fact, he was actually in Wilson's wedding. Bailey, like Bart, called pitches for the entirety of his collegiate career (and even called pitches in high school).
Still, Bailey's closest thing to a premium tool is his work behind the plate. A "premium defender" according to one insider, Bailey was the best defensive catcher available in the draft.
One wrinkle that hasn't been discussed with Bailey is the potential for him to play elsewhere. Since he's a consensus solid defensive catcher scouts never really questioned whether he'd have to move positions, but with Bart already in the organization it remains an open question.
Bailey is considered a good athlete for a catcher, but it's unclear if that translates elsewhere on the diamond. It's worth noting that last year the Giants suggested they thought their second-round pick (Logan Wyatt) could handle the outfield when almost everyone considered him a first-base only prospect, implying they may have faith in their ability to teach positional flexibility.
Who the Giants took: Casey Schmitt, 3B/RHP, San Diego State
49th overall pick
Expected Signing Bonus: Below-slot
Future-Value Grade: 40
Grade: C-
Schmitt was one of my 21 players to watch on Day 2 of the draft, but even I didn't expect to hear his name called this early. Schmitt seemed like a late 3rd-5th round prospect and given his flexibility it seemed likely he was a good candidate to go a bit higher for a below-slot deal and it seems the Giants to dove right in with that mindset. The slot for 49th pick is just over $1.5MM, but I'd expect Schmitt to sign for closer to $1MM.
Schmitt was a two-way contributor at San Diego State where he served as an everyday third baseman and high-leverage bullpen arm. He was announced as a third baseman, but the Giants PR team shared his information as a 3B/RHP. While the Giants have not developed a two-way guy yet, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has seemed very open to the idea in the past.
From my view, he's a future 45 reliever and batter, which might allow him to consistently contribute 1.5-2.5 wins above replacement with a creative coaching staff and front office. His fastball sits from 92-94mph and has tremendous late-movement that allows it to play up and pair well with a potentially average curveball and splitter. As a hitter, Schmitt is an above-average third baseman with a plus arm and plus raw power. The hit tool is pretty underdeveloped and he has yet to tap into his power potential, but some scouts are quite high on his potential to develop at the plate with more time.
Schmitt tore his right meniscus before the start of this season, so while his production was more good than great, a scout could see the injury covering up greater potential production. While the value seemed like a reach, Schmitt has an intriguing skillset that allows you to project a pretty high floor while also dream on his tools a bit as well. The Giants have invested heavily in their player development and they'll be responsible for making the organization look smart with this pick.
3 OF 8
Who the Giants took: Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State
67th overall pick
Expected Signing Bonus: Slot value
Future-Value Grade: 35+
Grade: B
Giants scouting director Michael Holmes built his reputation in the Carolinas and he's been very keen on tapping into his history over the past two cycles. Swiney joins former teammates Wilson and Bailey in San Francisco's system out of NC State.
There was no consensus on Swiney among public scouting heads. FanGraphs ranked Swiney the 51st best prospect in the draft and Keith Law of The Athletic ranked him as worthy of a first-round pick (22nd overall), but most other boards had him ranked around 80.
Swiney fits the pitching profile that the Giants have seemed to favor over the past couple drafts. The southpaw doesn't have traditional overpowering stuff, his fastball works in the low-90s as a starter and sat around 93-95mph out of the pen.
His fastball works alongside a changeup and curveball. The breaking ball projects as above-average and gets some plus grades. However, he's made some notable strides with his changeup and it looks like it could be a usable big-league pitch as well.
Working out of the bullpen through his first two seasons, Swiney racked up strikeouts, but it came with sacrificed control. As a sophomore, Swiney struck out 95 batters in less than 60 innings but walked nearly 5 batters per innings.
Out of nowhere this spring, Swiney moved into the rotation and through four starts seemed like he'd reached a new level. He didn't lose too much velocity in the rotation and he showed newfound control, walking just 6 batters in 28 innings across 4 starts. More importantly, he maintained the same kind of swing-and-miss punch, striking out 13.5 batters per nine.
Law believed Swiney was going to pitch himself into the back-end of the first round if the season hadn't been cut short. Pitch-tracking data seems keen on Swiney's fastball movement to help it play beyond its velocity as well. While the track record remains short-lived, there is plenty of reason to believe he can be a mid to back of rotation arm."
