2019 Offseason Thread

[msgkings322]

ok, I gotta ask this question. you ain't REALLY a racist...


















...are you...?

He is either a racist or pretends to be one to troll which is kind of the same thing

 

[dtgold88]

Having 2 white stars at once would be pretty awesome lol

I like the trade as TT doesn't care much anymore and is too busy with the Kardashian...And Hayward doesn't fit with Boston. It's a good trade for both teams...

Guess my concern is we have guys who can do what Hayward does in Love and even sexton (maybe Garland). we don't have anyone who can give them what TT gives them. who plays center?

 

[Black Adam]

He is either a racist or pretends to be one to troll which is kind of the same thing

trust me, I get it...

just wanted to hear him say it one way or another...

you know, ignorance gauge...

 

[dtgold88]

I'm not reading all that, you apparently are a troll that doesn't realize he is one. A rare breed.

pretty sure in an earlier comment I said I do realize I can be a certain type of troll. The rare one is the one with whom I was talking to earlier who does not think he trolls. No denial on my part which means I could get help.....but I don't want it.

 

[tlance]

Roto baseball for sure has more skill since it is so long and so many games. 85-90% seems way too high as just injuries I think account for at least 20%.

And I believe it was you who did, in fact, try and point out how much skill it took for the sharks to win in daily fantasy. The reason they win is they enter 100s of lineups and not just a handful or less.

Been many times I have all the studs in one lineup or another. The luck is having them in the right one together and much easier to do with 100+ lineups as opposed to 3.

There is a luck factor to roto.

I had a season once where my entire starting pitching staff got injured at the same time. It happens.

But even mistakes like busting on your top 2 picks or multiple long term injuries can be overcome in roto because there are always sleeper players and minors players who come out of nowhere to post really good short term numbers. Streaming players with favorable matchups can help too if you take the time to do the work and know what to look for.

As for the daily fantasy thing, sure, pros may submit 100+ lineups. But, they still have to hit with a reasonable success rate to turn a profit. That requires picking a strong core group of players to build lineups around, which also requires skill.

And I am not saying there isn’t luck involved. But I do think you are far underselling the importance of skill in general.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Injuries no doubt are included along with many other things that could happen no one would think about.

Hell, I remember winning a very close game a couple years ago because my opponent's QB took a knee 3 plays to end the game. The lost yardage put me on top.

NBA and NFL is mostly about game control. You want players in games that will be close and high scoring. and if someone really knows how games are going to go they should forget fantasy and just make traditional wagers with point spread or over/under.

I remember a couple years back in the Fan Duel Milion contest a person losing top spot on final play because of a kneel down.
To make it worse, I think his team got a turnover on play before or it never happens.

 

[dtgold88]

There is a luck factor to roto.

I had a season once where my entire starting pitching staff got injured at the same time. It happens.

But even mistakes like busting on your top 2 picks or multiple long term injuries can be overcome in roto because there are always sleeper players and minors players who come out of nowhere to post really good short term numbers. Streaming players with favorable matchups can help too if you take the time to do the work and know what to look for.

As for the daily fantasy thing, sure, pros may submit 100+ lineups. But, they still have to hit with a reasonable success rate to turn a profit. That requires picking a strong core group of players to build lineups around, which also requires skill.

And I am not saying there isn’t luck involved. But I do think you are far underselling the importance of skill in general.

I believe most who do the DFS a lot know what to look for. what you really want are guys who will play in close, high scoring games. and as mentioned, if we know how that will go we should be making traditional wagers instead. Goes for NBA and NFL

And, sure, you need a core group but when you have 100s of lineups you aren't limiting yourself to one corp.

And if you nail just one or 2 of the biggies you have a profit for weeks (or much longer).

 

[dtgold88]

I remember a couple years back in the Fan Duel Milion contest a person losing top spot on final play because of a kneel down.
To make it worse, I think his team got a turnover on play before or it never happens.

ouch

I'm sure all of us who have done this a long time (though not on the million dollar level) have had many "horror stories" like this.

where it's also like poker (at least according to Mike McDermott in Rounders) is we easily remember the failures like this but not the lucky wins.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

of course they wanted 2 max players, but when things fell apart for Kawhi they needed a plan B.

I am one who answers all direct questions and isn't into deflection like you. Thought I did answer, but here it goes again.......hard to know, but if he's willing to take a 1-year deal I would think it would be in the $15-18 mil range. If he wants a longer deal I think more like in the $12-16 mil range.

I say 7-10M tops, we'll see.
Maybe 3 year/25M if he has a decent season.
I don't think LeBron can bail him out again.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

ouch

I'm sure all of us who have done this a long time (though not on the million dollar level) have had many "horror stories" like this.

where it's also like poker (at least according to Mike McDermott in Rounders) is we easily remember the failures like this but not the lucky wins.

One of the kids that works for me won 10K once, and was just a few points away from huge bucks.
I remember he still had a chance with some players I'm 90% sure were in a Browns game that went to OT and then someone returned either the opening kick or a punt for a TD that ended it.
Prob 3-4 season ago.

I won a basketball one once, but not a giant one, just where you pick 5 players with weighted value.
It was in the Finals 2 summers ago and I was actually on a flight to Venice to I couldn't see/watch.
When I landed I turned on my phone and saw I won a few grand cause several others had same lineup.

 

[Wamu]

trust me,

 

[tlance]

I believe most who do the DFS a lot know what to look for. what you really want are guys who will play in close, high scoring games. and as mentioned, if we know how that will go we should be making traditional wagers instead. Goes for NBA and NFL

And, sure, you need a core group but when you have 100s of lineups you aren't limiting yourself to one corp.

And if you nail just one or 2 of the biggies you have a profit for weeks (or much longer).

There is more to it than that.

Analyzing how opposing defenses are likely to matchup for example. That info is available and the pros use it.

Which corner is your WR likely to matchup with? Does the burn victim play sides, or does the defense move corners around? Is the WR1 matchup too juicy? Because if it is, say Julio Jones matched against a corner who has no chance, then that can actually be bad for the WR because the defense may use bracket coverage or frequent doubles and your guy has a bust day.

There is a lot of data analysis and game theory behind finding optimal lineup combinations. And since only 20% of entries pay out and most of those that get paid are pretty small incremental gains, you need to be good at analyzing the data to turn a profit.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

There is more to it than that.

Analyzing how opposing defenses are likely to matchup for example. That info is available and the pros use it.

Which corner is your WR likely to matchup with? Does the burn victim play sides, or does the defense move corners around? Is the WR1 matchup too juicy? Because if it is, say Julio Jones matched against a corner who has no chance, then that can actually be bad for the WR because the defense may use bracket coverage or frequent doubles and your guy has a bust day.

There is a lot of data analysis and game theory behind finding optimal lineup combinations. And since only 20% of entries pay out and most of those that get paid are pretty small incremental gains, you need to be good at analyzing the data to turn a profit.

Not only that, FanFuels now rakes 15% plus , which is why for the most part I quit playing.

 

[trojanfan12]

I hope you don't think forgetting the comma means Jackie wont be getting another call from me.

and, no, I'm not arrogant. In fact, I'm not afraid to point out I don't know the answer to something even when some like the guy to which I replied gives his opinions as though they are fact...and do so in an extreme manner.

Lol

It's not me, it's everyone else. - dtgold

Your inability to recognize your own arrogance, doesn't mean your not arrogant.

 

[trojanfan12]

Pretty sure the deepshit was the guy who thought 100% and likely meant the same thing.

It's not me, it's everyone else. - dtgold

 

[trojanfan12]

Cannot say I recall a Cavalier fan saying he wanted PG. But pretty sure we'd all take him.

There have been Laker fans in this thread who said TT would be fantastic additions if they could get him.

@trojanfan12 curious.....do you think TT would be a big help to the current Laker roster?

Yes. I've always said that I would like TT on the Lakers. Just not at the current price. He knows how to play alongside Lebron and he can get you a double double with no plays called for him. I like his defense too, which they could use.

 

[Black Adam]

Lol

It's not me, it's everyone else. - dtgolg

Your inability to recognize your own arrogance, doesn't mean your not arrogant.

hey, we can only point it out...

 

[Bart]

.

We both troll still come on dude

The best trolling IS good natured in my book

I think we both troll for different reasons, though.

The way I see it, is you troll to be funny or to mock posters, to add entertainment to the board.

I usually troll to provoke posters into arguing with me or to anger them into continuing to argue. I feel it brings out the best of their debating skills when they are little upset.

I find dtgold, Wiggy and I similar in that we all enjoy arguing to the point that we go out of our way to pick fights.

 

[Bart]

geeze, my mother-in-law was from Ohio...

we DEFINITELY didn't get along. lol, maybe it IS a thing...

LOL...There is definitely a trend forming.

 

[TurnUpTheHeat]

Yes. I've always said that I would like TT on the Lakers. Just not at the current price. He knows how to play alongside Lebron and he can get you a double double with no plays called for him. I like his defense too, which they could use.

Which has been the consensus, with the key words being ‘ at the right price’.