2019 Hall of Fame Ballot

[StanMarsh51]

I dont have mussina in that second tier... not even close... Smoltz, Glavine, Halladay, and Brown had ELITE seasons... Mussina really didn't...

Smoltz's best starter ERA was 2.85 in the NL for instance. Is that really better than Mussina's 2.54, 3.06, 3.15 ERAs in the AL?

Brown was underrated, but was named in the Mitchell Report and isn't a Clemens/Bonds type player in that they were dominant early on before PEDs...Brown had his first great season at age 31.

And who are these other 10 pitchers that may be better than Mussina from 1990-2010?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Smoltz's best starter ERA was 2.85 in the NL for instance. Is that really better than Mussina's 2.54, 3.06, 3.15 ERAs in the AL?

And who are these other 10 pitchers that may be better than Mussina from 1990-2010?

off the top of my head:

Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Martinez(big 4)

Halladay, Glavine- (next Best 2)

Santana, Brown, Smoltz, Schilling-(next Best 4)

that makes up the top 10

the next 10

Cliff Lee, David Cone, OK (Mussina gets in here) so i have him in the 3rd 5 man rotation of that period

But i also omitted guys like Verlander, Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Dwight Gooden, Orel Hersheiser, and Brett saberhagan since there elite seasons were outside of this window(who i have all of them above Mussina)

 

[StanMarsh51]

off the top of my head:

Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Martinez(big 4)

Halladay, Glavine- (next Best 2)

Santana, Brown, Smoltz, Schilling-(next Best 4)

that makes up the top 10

the next 10

Cliff Lee, David Cone, OK (Mussina gets in here) so i have him in the 3rd 5 man rotation of that period

But i also omitted guys like Verlander, Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Dwight Gooden, Orel Hersheiser, and Brett saberhagan since there elite seasons were outside of this window(who i have all of them above Mussina)

Cliff Lee's a stretch, considering he had only 2 dominant seasons and a 3.52 career ERA in 1400 less innings than Mussina. Similar situations (although not as bad as Lee) for Cone, Golden, Hershiser and Saberhagen. Each had maybe 2-3 dominant seasons at most but overall threw far less innings than Mussina.

I don't think 2 or so dominant seasons are enough to put any of them over Mussina, cause then we're not far off from saying that everyone who's won a Cy is better.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Cliff Lee's a stretch, considering he had only 2 dominant seasons and a 3.52 career ERA in 1400 less innings than Mussina. Similar situations (although not as bad as Lee) for Cone, Golden, Hershiser and Saberhagen. Each had maybe 2-3 dominant seasons at most but overall threw far less innings than Mussina.

I don't think 2 or so dominant seasons are enough to put any of them over Mussina, cause then we're not far off from saying that everyone who's won a Cy is better.

that wasn't an order... that was a grouping... So i think he was just as good as Lee and Cone...

And i do think a player with a short window of real dominance is better than a player who had a long window of being VERY good...

Yes, one season of greatness is not going to do it if that is all you had... But if you had one season of greatness, and you are similar to another player overall , then i will always give the player who had the BEST season the advantage...

 

[StanMarsh51]

that wasn't an order... that was a grouping... So i think he was just as good as Lee and Cone...

And i do think a player with a short window of real dominance is better than a player who had a long window of being VERY good...

Yes, one season of greatness is not going to do it if that is all you had... But if you had one season of greatness, and you are similar to another player overall , then i will always give the player who had the BEST season the advantage...

I don't think many of these guys were similar overall however....similar to your thoughts on Walker vs Belton, Walker had better offensive numbers than Helton in but less games so you give Helton the nod, but you seem to be doing the reverse for Mussina.

I mean, if Cliff Lee had a 2.80 career ERA and 1.05 WHIP then I could maybe see the reasoning for him being ahead of Mussina, but he 's got a career ERA over 3.50, and less than 0.2 ahead of Mussina and a slighly higher WHIP in 1400 (6-7 seasons worth) less innings.

Same argument I'll use against Saberhagen, Gooden, Cone, Hershiser....their overall numbers aren't good enough considering they all pitched several hundred fewer innings.

It seems like you're penalizing Mussina in two different ways related to longevity.... You're penalizing him for playing longer than these guys and hence having slightly worse rate stats (which happens when you play longer), but you're also penalizing him for not hanging on for 3 more mediocre years to get the milestone 300 wins.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't think many of these guys were similar overall however....similar to your thoughts on Walker vs Belton, Walker had better offensive numbers than Helton in but less games so you give Helton the nod, but you seem to be doing the reverse for Mussina.

I mean, if Cliff Lee had a 2.80 career ERA and 1.05 WHIP then I could maybe see the reasoning for him being ahead of Mussina, but he 's got a career ERA over 3.50, and less than 0.2 ahead of Mussina and a slighly higher WHIP in 1400 (6-7 seasons worth) less innings.

Same argument I'll use against Saberhagen, Gooden, Cone, Hershiser....their overall numbers aren't good enough considering they all pitched several hundred fewer innings.

It seems like you're penalizing Mussina in two different ways related to longevity.... You're penalizing him for playing longer than these guys and hence having slightly worse rate stats (which happens when you play longer), but you're also penalizing him for not hanging on for 3 more mediocre years to get the milestone 300 wins.

I know you are a big WAR guy... You realize Helton has a better WAR7 than Walker??? and that includes the fact that Helton is a first base and Walker is an OF....


You realize that Cone, sabrehagan and Mussina have similar ones??

Like i said... The first thing i look at is milestones... The second thing i look at is dominant seasons...

I dont penalize Mussina for Longevity... But i am also not going to vault him up my list because of it.... If you dont reach a milestone, then how important is longevity?? your just a compiler...

I feel very strong with my list of 10 SP over Mussina...

and i already admitted my statement that he wasn't top 20 to be wrong...

 

[navamind]

Regardless, I wouldn't put him over Halladay since a great starter is always worth more than a great reliever.

bingo

 

[Rex Racer]

Taking the steroid issues out of my analysis I would go with:

Clemens
Bonds
Walker
Manny
Rivera

and a whole lot of close, but no cigar.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I know you are a big WAR guy... You realize Helton has a better WAR7 than Walker??? and that includes the fact that Helton is a first base and Walker is an OF....


You realize that Cone, sabrehagan and Mussina have similar ones??

Like i said... The first thing i look at is milestones... The second thing i look at is dominant seasons...

I dont penalize Mussina for Longevity... But i am also not going to vault him up my list because of it.... If you dont reach a milestone, then how important is longevity?? your just a compiler...

I feel very strong with my list of 10 SP over Mussina...

and i already admitted my statement that he wasn't top 20 to be wrong...

WAR7 however ignores the extra seasons that a player may have been quality. Walker for instance had 10 seasons with a 4 WAR (using baseballreference's version), but WAR7 would ignore 3 of them. Helton by comparison had 7 seasons of 4 WAR, so all of his 4 WAR seasons would be counted in his WAR7.

Regarding Mussina, he had 10 seasons of 5 WAR, while Cone had 5, Gooden had 2, Saberhagen had 5, Hershiser had 4, Lee had 4.

WAR7 hurts the guy with a long prime like Mussina or Walker has, but helps guys with shorter, great primes and not much else (like Dale Murphy for instance).

 

[navamind]

Walker's also hurt by the strike shortened 1994-95 seasons.

 

[PolarVortex]

Roy Halladay 162 game Averages: 17-9, 3.38 ERA, 6 CG, 2 SHO, 179 SO, 131 ERA+, 223 hits allowed, 19 HRs allowed, 3.58 SO/W

Andy Pettite 162 game Averages: 17-10, 3.85 ERA, 2 CG, 0 SHO, 158 SO, 114 ERA+, 223 hits allowed, 20 HRs allowed, 2.37 SO/W

Their stats are very comparable.

No, they aren't. W/L is the only comparable stat. Hits per 162 games is a wasted stat. You should have used hits per 9 innings. Halladay is 8.7, Pettitte is 9.4. Not comparable.

The most telling stat difference: ERA and ERA+ You also avoided using WHIP in your comparison. I guess that stat didn't fit into your agenda?

 

[StanMarsh51]

Walker's also hurt by the strike shortened 1994-95 seasons.

Good call...4.7 WAR in just 103 games with the strike in '94, so he was on pace for a ~7 WAR season.

 

[navamind]

JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Edgar Martinez | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[calsnowskier]

JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Edgar Martinez | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[nynasty]

Mariano was the first, not the best. No one says Cy Young is the best pitcher even though he was the first to be allowed to win 500 games.

So who was better?

This should be good.

 

[navamind]

 

[Montalban]

2019 Potential Hall of Fame Ballot | Baseball-Reference.com

Not too much longer until the ballots start pouring in.

Of all the first-time-on-the-ballot guys for 2019 I only like Mariano Rivera.

 

[Montalban]

Roy Halladay 162 game Averages: 17-9, 3.38 ERA, 6 CG, 2 SHO, 179 SO, 131 ERA+, 223 hits allowed, 19 HRs allowed, 3.58 SO/W

Andy Pettite 162 game Averages: 17-10, 3.85 ERA, 2 CG, 0 SHO, 158 SO, 114 ERA+, 223 hits allowed, 20 HRs allowed, 2.37 SO/W

Their stats are very comparable.

Neither makes the grade in my opinion due to the mediocre ERAs.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Neither makes the grade in my opinion due to the mediocre ERAs.

How many pitchers in the past 25 years with a substantial amount of innings (say, 2,000+) have had a career ERA as low as Halladay's 3.38. Try to make the list and you'll see why you're wrong...

 

[calsnowskier]

How many pitchers in the past 25 years with a substantial amount of innings (say, 2,000+) have had a career ERA as low as Halladay's 3.38. Try to make the list and you'll see why you're wrong...

Are you familiar with NN? He NEVER realizes when he is wrong.