2018 Roster Expectations

[LHG]

Great read

Brian Sabean: Giants ‘can’t go on like this’

Thanks for the share. A few things bother me. Why focus frustration on Belt when he was one of their best hitters this year when healthy? They want to move on from him but only see Pence in a diminished role? And if they need power, why leave Williamson to rot? I think an explanation from Sabean on that would be nice. What bothers me the most is that last paragraph. It sounds like some years of middling veterans is guaranteed. As quoted from Sabean: "Because we aren't used to doing business like this."

 

[SFGRTB]

The Giants will need 5 slots for the Rule V protections (Martinez, Coonrod, Beede, Snelton and Garcia. Maybe Johnson as a 6th. They will also need to add Smith and Gregorio.

We know Morse, Cain and Hundley will be off the roster.

That leaves 4 or 5 additional drops.

Of the arb-eligible players, only Gearin is at risk of getting non-tendered, but the org appears to like him, so I will guess he is not non-tendered.

Of the players under team control, Albert Suarez, Roberto Gomez and Pablo Sandoval seem to be easy DFAs. So who will the last one or two be?

Trevor Brown may be an option, seeing as they did not even call him up for September this year. And his year in Sacto was REALLY bad.

Chase Johnson is a possibility. He only had 10 IP in '17. But he still has 3 options after this year, so he would likely not make it through waivers.

Maybe the Giants purge the big league roster a bit. There are 3 OFers currently in the Giants OF, likely only competing for a single spot next year. Hernandez, Parker or Williamson could all fall to the axe to clear room. To be totally honest, losing any of them would not be a huge loss to the org, IMHO.

Gregorio may simply not be added back to the 40. I am not certain if this would require he be DFA'd or not, though. I also would expect that he would either be claimed (if he needs to be DFA'd) or drafted. He has no options remaining, so he is either a MLBer or off the 40. His lack of flexibility may make the org decide to look elsewhere. And the PED stink is strong with this one.

One thing to consider as well, the Giants might want to have a spot open to select a rule 5 player themsleves.

I think Hundley has a pretty good shot at coming back, depending on his price tag. Regardless, I think you can safely assume that Hundley's spot will not be available because it will be filled with Hundley or "veteran backup catcher X". Now I think Trevor Brown and Fed-X are both goners and will be replaced with Aramis Garcia. I think it's possible that Brown will stick with the organization though.

I agree that Parker, Williamson and Hernandez are all probably on the lookout. Gorkys has really weird numbers. He has 1 fantastic month, 2 good months, and 3 utter crap months. Overall, his defense has been just as inconsistent. He's pretty replaceable, even from within the organization. Boch seems to like him though. Parker could still be useful as a 5th OFer, but again, nothing to bend over backwards for. Mac is useful in that he still has options and potential on his side, but at the same time seems the most out of favor with Bochy. He's also 27 and unlikely to materialize into much with the Giants. Could be beneficial for him if he can move on.

 

[SFGRTB]

What chatter I've read here and elsewhere seems to suggest that the FO thinks that they can make a contender of the team next year. If that is true (that they are operating on this assumption, not that it is possible), then it would be a fairly rare reversal. A 30 game shift would be radical, and, the way this team is playing, that would mean a 93-69 record. What would it take to make a playoff contender? In the NL, the Rockies, who lead the charge for the 2nd Wild Card team, project to be 88-74. The Giants would need to gain 26 wins to hit that minimum. I don't care how radical the Giants get in offseaon upgrades, I don't see how that is possible within one year.

The way I see things shaking out, the Giants sell the farm for a one year run that falls horribly short. Knowing their penchant for not doing massive sell offs in season, they trade off one, maybe two veterans in July and let the rest of the veterans who will be free agents after 2018 walk in November, regardless of their value to the team. Then, the org starts to think about how to patch a team together while they build the farm. We go through another mid 00s nightmare in hopes that the farm gets built up like it was prior to 2010.

I hope my scenario is horribly wrong but I fear that it is quite possible.

There are 2 recent examples of this type of turn around.

The 2017 Diamondbacks and the 2017 Rockies.

 

[LHG]

There are 2 recent examples of this type of turn around.

The 2017 Diamondbacks and the 2017 Rockies.

Was it that big of a difference? I haven't bothered to look it up.

 

[SFGRTB]

Was it that big of a difference? I haven't bothered to look it up.

The Rockies will probably end up being a 12-15 game difference. But the D-Backs will be right in line with a 23-28 game difference.

 

[LHG]

Great read

Brian Sabean: Giants ‘can’t go on like this’

One mor thing about the article. Sabean recognizes the lack of power,so what does the front office do in the last week? Pick up a weak hitting middle infielder and a pitcher. How does that help in that department?

 

[LHG]

The Rockies will probably end up being a 12-15 game difference. But the D-Backs will be right in line with a 23-28 game difference.

It would be interesting to look at the changes from last year to this year and if those changes are comparable to what the Giants could do.

 

[msgkings322]

One mor thing about the article. Sabean recognizes the lack of power,so what does the front office do in the last week? Pick up a weak hitting middle infielder and a pitcher. How does that help in that department?

Sabean said they all knew the team was toast by May, but they couldn't come out and just say so. They haven't made a single win in 2017 move, very much on purpose.

 

[VASFfan]

Thanks for the share. A few things bother me. Why focus frustration on Belt when he was one of their best hitters this year when healthy? They want to move on from him but only see Pence in a diminished role? And if they need power, why leave Williamson to rot? I think an explanation from Sabean on that would be nice. What bothers me the most is that last paragraph. It sounds like some years of middling veterans is guaranteed. As quoted from Sabean: "Because we aren't used to doing business like this."

"One of their best hitters"...that's a relative, damning-with-faint-praise statement. On a weak hitting team, being one of the best isn't much to take pride in. And on an absolute basis, yeah, he's got some power, but I don't see how anyone can look at Belt's performance, and especially his maddening inconsistency, and say, yeah, I want me some of that. If he stays, and with his contract it seems unavoidable, he MUST do better.

What got me about the article was Jenkins saying a major change in the outfield is necessary. No kidding, Bruce, thanks for that. But when Sabean seems to imply that no matter what Pence will be on the roster because of his contract AND that Span will also figure into the equation as an at least part-time starter, just how much change is ultimately going to happen???

In spite of his suggestion that everyone knew early on that this year was doomed, he still seems to think that they can at least be 'competitive' next year. That's better than the alternative, I guess, but not exactly a high bar to surpass. And if we can anticipate basically the same rotation, pretty much the same infield (unless Panik is used as trade fodder), and MOSTLY just a shuffling in the outfield, I'm not sure we can count on 'competitive'. It sounds like Sabean's counting on the rotation being better, for instance. That's nice, but who can be sure? Moore has had a decent last few weeks but what if he goes south again next year? Are we sure Cueto comes back to what he was last year?

I give Sabean credit for trying to rethink things and, hell, just for realizing they've got a big problem on their hands. But I don't think he's even now really grasped the enormity of what they face and how difficult the near future could be.

 

[LHG]

Sabean said they all knew the team was toast by May, but they couldn't come out and just say so. They haven't made a single win in 2017 move, very much on purpose.

Which makes the Johnson and Vilema moves more of head scratchers. If you knew that major changes need to happen back in May, which pick up two reclamation projects that, even if they are successful, won't serve to improve this ballclub when there is precious little room on the 40 man roster?

 

[LHG]

"One of their best hitters"...that's a relative, damning-with-faint-praise statement. On a weak hitting team, being one of the best isn't much to take pride in. And on an absolute basis, yeah, he's got some power, but I don't see how anyone can look at Belt's performance, and especially his maddening inconsistency, and say, yeah, I want me some of that. If he stays, and with his contract it seems unavoidable, he MUST do better.

What got me about the article was Jenkins saying a major change in the outfield is necessary. No kidding, Bruce, thanks for that. But when Sabean seems to imply that no matter what Pence will be on the roster because of his contract AND that Span will also figure into the equation as an at least part-time starter, just how much change is ultimately going to happen???

In spite of his suggestion that everyone knew early on that this year was doomed, he still seems to think that they can at least be 'competitive' next year. That's better than the alternative, I guess, but not exactly a high bar to surpass. And if we can anticipate basically the same rotation, pretty much the same infield (unless Panik is used as trade fodder), and MOSTLY just a shuffling in the outfield, I'm not sure we can count on 'competitive'. It sounds like Sabean's counting on the rotation being better, for instance. That's nice, but who can be sure? Moore has had a decent last few weeks but what if he goes south again next year? Are we sure Cueto comes back to what he was last year?

I give Sabean credit for trying to rethink things and, hell, just for realizing they've got a big problem on their hands. But I don't think he's even now really grasped the enormity of what they face and how difficult the near future could be.

Regardless of how one feels about Belt, he was hardly the major issue on this club. The FO knew what they had in him before they offered that extension. His numbers weren't much different this year than years past. Heck, on the power side, he would have set a career high in home runs this year had he not got bonked on the head again. There are plenty other guys (or positions) that came up far shorter than Belt. His production was as expected. Many others were not.

 

[Pattersonca65]

Thanks for the share. A few things bother me. Why focus frustration on Belt when he was one of their best hitters this year when healthy? They want to move on from him but only see Pence in a diminished role? And if they need power, why leave Williamson to rot? I think an explanation from Sabean on that would be nice. What bothers me the most is that last paragraph. It sounds like some years of middling veterans is guaranteed. As quoted from Sabean: "Because we aren't used to doing business like this."

The hitting was pretty weak up and down. I think they were expecting more from Belt. I am starting to think he will never be a number three hitter and better suited farther down the batting order. He does have pop in his batr but his average wasn't very good. And then he gets into those long slumps where he can't do a thing at the plate. Would be nice to move Pence but I doubt anyone wants to take that salary on. They are probably stuck with him for one more year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Here is an updated analysis...

FAs

Hundley
Morse
Federowicz

Options (buyout cost)

Cain (7.5M)
Bumgarner (1.5M)
Moore (1M)

Arbitration

Strickland (1)
Panik (1)
Gearrin (2)
Dyson (2)
Smith (3)

MLB Contracts

Cueto (opt-out)
Posey
Samardzija
Pence
Melancon
Span
Crawford
Belt

Team controlled

Law
Parker
Williamson
Hernandez
Blach
Arroyo
Jones
Brown
Calixte
Crick
Gregorio (needs to be added to 40)
M. Gomez
R. Gomez
Moronta
Chase Johnson
Okert
Osich
Slania
Slater
Stratton
Suarez(Al)
Tomlinson
Vielma
Sandoval

That is 43 players (40 + Smith, Morse and Gregorio). I think these players will be cut/non-tendered/DFA'd (in order of my expectations)...

Morse
Cain
Federowicz
Hundley (I think they will try to resign him, though)

Sandoval
Al.Suarez
R. Gomez
Brown
Gearin (??)
Johnson (??)
Gregorio (??)
Hernandez (??)
Parker (??)

That is 8-13 guys clearing off the 40-man.

So that leaves us with 5-10 open spots for Rule V protections/FA signings. Of course trades could change this.

Adding Johnson to the 40 makes this picture all the more murky. Maybe Calixte is now an endangered species?

 

[SFGRTB]

"One of their best hitters"...that's a relative, damning-with-faint-praise statement. On a weak hitting team, being one of the best isn't much to take pride in. And on an absolute basis, yeah, he's got some power, but I don't see how anyone can look at Belt's performance, and especially his maddening inconsistency, and say, yeah, I want me some of that. If he stays, and with his contract it seems unavoidable, he MUST do better.

What got me about the article was Jenkins saying a major change in the outfield is necessary. No kidding, Bruce, thanks for that. But when Sabean seems to imply that no matter what Pence will be on the roster because of his contract AND that Span will also figure into the equation as an at least part-time starter, just how much change is ultimately going to happen???

In spite of his suggestion that everyone knew early on that this year was doomed, he still seems to think that they can at least be 'competitive' next year. That's better than the alternative, I guess, but not exactly a high bar to surpass. And if we can anticipate basically the same rotation, pretty much the same infield (unless Panik is used as trade fodder), and MOSTLY just a shuffling in the outfield, I'm not sure we can count on 'competitive'. It sounds like Sabean's counting on the rotation being better, for instance. That's nice, but who can be sure? Moore has had a decent last few weeks but what if he goes south again next year? Are we sure Cueto comes back to what he was last year?

I give Sabean credit for trying to rethink things and, hell, just for realizing they've got a big problem on their hands. But I don't think he's even now really grasped the enormity of what they face and how difficult the near future could be.

I can. If you hide his batting average column, you see that his numbers are above average, and I'd want to fill my lineup with 8 Brandon Belts (even with his batting average, his numbers are fine I just think people can't look past that column). He had a down year this year and overall he was still pretty dang good.

I think part of LGH's "One of their best hitters" statement also qualifies as a team full of crap hitters, why are we continuously bashing one of the few hitters that was productive.

 

[SFGRTB]

Adding Johnson to the 40 makes this picture all the more murky. Maybe Calixte is now an endangered species?

Could spell doom for Albert Suarez. Also, I wonder if Okert or Osich might be on the chopping block.

 

[calsnowskier]

Could spell doom for Albert Suarez. Also, I wonder if Okert or Osich might be on the chopping block.

Suarez was already on my chopping block. Adding the O’s to the watch list is legit, though.

 

[SFGRTB]

Suarez was already on my chopping block. Adding the O’s to the watch list is legit, though.

One of them is probably safe, but with Smith and Snelten incoming, and possibly a veteran lefty as well, there's not really much room for both. Both can stew in AAA though, which helps their cause. Suarez cannot, another reason he might be out.

 

[calsnowskier]

One of them is probably safe, but with Smith and Snelten incoming, and possibly a veteran lefty as well, there's not really much room for both. Both can stew in AAA though, which helps their cause. Suarez cannot, another reason he might be out.

I already have Suarez as a definite goner.

We need between 7 and 9 spots...

Snelton
Beede
Martinez
Garcia
Coonrod
Smith
Belt
Gregorio (maybe)
Johnson (maybe)

The easy goners, IMHO, are...

Cain
Hundley
Al. Suarez
R. Gomez

This is the next tier...

Sandoval (just a few days ago, he was a definite, but I fear the worst)
Brown
Hernandez (2 of these)
Williamson (2 of these)
Parker (2 of these)
Calixte
Osich
Okert

If they want room for a Rule V themselves, that will require another cut.

They may make an early trade, but I am not sure they will be able to do that before the Rule V rosters are due.

 

[LHG]

I already have Suarez as a definite goner.

We need between 7 and 9 spots...

Snelton
Beede
Martinez
Garcia
Coonrod
Smith
Belt
Gregorio (maybe)
Johnson (maybe)

The easy goners, IMHO, are...

Cain
Hundley
Al. Suarez
R. Gomez

This is the next tier...

Sandoval (just a few days ago, he was a definite, but I fear the worst)
Brown
Hernandez (2 of these)
Williamson (2 of these)
Parker (2 of these)
Calixte
Osich
Okert

If they want room for a Rule V themselves, that will require another cut.

They may make an early trade, but I am not sure they will be able to do that before the Rule V rosters are due.

Where does Federowicz fit?

 

[LHG]

Here's what I can piece together on Sandoval. MLB Rumor's mentioned, when the Giants purchased his contract, that the Giants have options on him for 2018 and 2019 as long as he is on their roster but will be a free agent if he is not on the roster.

I can. If you hide his batting average column, you see that his numbers are above average, and I'd want to fill my lineup with 8 Brandon Belts (even with his batting average, his numbers are fine I just think people can't look past that column). He had a down year this year and overall he was still pretty dang good.

I think part of LGH's "One of their best hitters" statement also qualifies as a team full of crap hitters, why are we continuously bashing one of the few hitters that was productive.

Here's an interesting response on MLB Rumor's site to the Jenkins' piece - San Francisco Giants Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors. My favorite:

• Turning this general approach into specific moves figures to be the real challenge, of course. As Jenkins explains, the club has a variety of difficult player/contract situations on the roster. Interestingly, he reports that skipper Bruce Bochy “would welcome a new look” at first base. While Brandon Belt has never been a major source of home runs and has been limited by unfortunate concussion problems, he has also been a steadily productive batter — posting a 128 wRC+ in over three thousand career plate appearances. Indeed, just last winter the club awarded him with an extension that Jenkins now labels as “burdensome.” Attempting to upgrade, though, may well cost yet more and the likelihood of even achieving improved production seems rather dubious.
  If the Giants really decided they needed to move Belt, he’d draw plenty of interest due to his well-rounded offensive profile, though surely other organizations would be wary of the health concerns. Though he did just go on the 60-day DL — effectively ending his season — Belt was able to do some running on the field yesterday. He tells Janie McCauley of the Associated Press (Twitter link) that he has finally “turned a corner” and “just started feeling good,” which is certainly good to hear given the nature of his injury. Hopefully, Belt will be able to recover fully over the offseason.