2018 Roster Expectations

[Stokes1931]

As I suspected.

 

[calsnowskier]

And what do you think?

 

[SFGRTB]

Good god, nights like this really make me think that Moore's option can't be picked up. He's basically Durty 2.0 right now, but I'd say with not as good stuff.

 

[SFGRTB]

Take Gonor off the list

 

[LHG]

But you don't mention that both Forjet and Biagini are 25 years old. Biagini has improved each level he's pitched at, in terms of WHIP (except from first to second year). Forjet was 2.6 years older than others in his league last year and 1.9 years older this year. I'd rather chose Biagini since he seems closer and has been closer to the median age of his league.

Currently, the team has 46 players between the 40 man roster and the 6 players on the 60 day disabled list.

Out of those 48 players, 11 of them will be free agents: Affeldt, Aoki, Byrd, Casilla, de Aza, Frandsen, Hudson, Leake, Lincecum, Scutaro and Vogelsong.

Of the 11 free agents, 3 will probably retire (Affeldt, Hudson and Scutaro). Another two will most likely have options vesting (Byrd, Casilla), putting them back on the 40 man roster. Let's count the third pending option (Aoki), to put the 40 man roster at the maximum.

From what I can tell, the following minor leagues are eligible to be drafted in the Rule 5 draft in December: Bryce Bandilla, rp; Joe Biagini, sp; Ty Blach, sp; Clayton Blackburn, sp; Kyle Crick, rp; Carlos Diaz, rp; E.J. Encinosa, rp; Ian Gardeck, rp; Chris Johnson, sp; Joseph Kurrasch, sp; Andrew Leenhouts, sp; Matt Lujan, sp; Phil McCormick, rp; Adalberto Mejia, sp; Tyler Mizenko, rp; Reyes Moronta, rp; Steven Okert, rp; Randy Ortiz, rp; Eury Sanchez, rp; Jacob Smith, rp; Jack Snodgrass, sp; Jeff Soptic, rp; Chris Stratton, sp; Leo Rojas, c; Ben Turner, c; Mitchell Delfino, 3rd; Rando Moreno, ss; Ricky Oropesa, 1st; John Polonius, 2nd; Travious Relaford, ss; Julio Pena, of

I've bolded the ones I think are most likely to get protected. The position player group is pretty weak (and thin in numbers). The pitchers, however, make for some interesting decisions. If all the ones I've listed are going to be needed protection (I may have calculated wrong, not sure), that leaves anywhere between 4 to 8 spots needing clearance on the 40 man roster.

Thus, I think the following are most likely to get removed from the 40 man roster: Mike Broadway, rp; Brett Bochy, rp; Cory Gearrin, rp; Cody Hall, rp; Derek Law, rp; Trevor Brown, c; Hector Sanchez, c; Jackson Williams, c; Ehire Adrianza, ss; Nick Noonan, 2nd; Juan Perez, of

I've bolded those most likely to be a victim of removal. That only brings half of the guys I think the Giants would most likely be added and does not allow for room to sign any major league free agents or add anyone from the Rule 5 draft (which is highly unlikely anyway). Petit could well be non-tendered but I cannot really see anyone else non tendered.

The Giants are going to have to make some hard decisions on a lot of guys in the system.

Had you rejoined the party here when we talking about 40-adds back then? I don't remember anyone mentioning him as a must add before the draft. And even when the Jays took him, most of us were surprised and did not assign any blame since none of us would have protected him either.

@calsnowskier , I joined the forum after the 2016 roster thread was started (we were late this year by that standard), but, as shown above, I did weigh in on Biagini. He was on my short list to protect. Looking for this information, I also stumbled across this - To protect or not to protect?. I completely forgot I did that.

 

[calsnowskier]

Nice research. I was too lazy to actually look for it myself.

 

[LHG]

Nice research. I was too lazy to actually look for it myself.

I could have just said yes but I preferred to know myself that my memory matched reality.

 

[calsnowskier]

With Kontos and Gillaspie gone, that just clears up this picture a little bit...

 

[calsnowskier]

And the concussion may remove any chance of a Belt trade this off season...

 

[SFGRTB]

And the concussion may remove any chance of a Belt trade this off season...

Unbelievable how many bad breaks this season, which in turn effect (affect?) future seasons.

Wonder if Belt's concussion/potential lack of trade value will effect (affect) Matt Moore? I mean, if the Giants have to save some money somewhere, he's about the only guy where the can save a quick buck. Would he take a restructured deal?

Gillaspie and Kontos save about $3M if they're replaced with rookies/minimum salaried players.

 

[SFGRTB]

Possible fact about Kontos, not sure where the Giants are at with the luxury tax right now but it only matter where they are at the end of the season, and clearing the rest of Kontos' contract now could be some help. It's wise if the Giants aren't repeat offenders and can reset that when they can.

 

[tzill]

Here's basically what's locked in:

Posey - $22,177,777
Cueto - $21,000,000
Samardzija - $19,800,000
Pence - $18,500,000
Belt - $17,200,000
Crawford - $15,200,000
Melancon - $13,000,000
Bumgarner - $12,000,000
Span - $11,000,000
Moore - $9,000,000 (or $1,000,000)
Cain - $7,500,000

That's $166,377,777 right there (or $158,377,777).

Trading Belt, Panik and Moore, with Pence and Span coming off the books a year later, the Giants could find themselves with much more breathing room come 2019, especially with basically no one on the roster needing a massive extension outside of Bumgarner during the next wave of prospects. Depending on what you get in return (ideally talent close to the majors, or young talent already in the majors), the Giants could set themselves up decently for 2019 if they want to go ahead and half-ass it in 2018 by signing some old vets to fill in spots left by Belt and Panik and suffering through Pence and Span in the field one last season. Could even go the A's route and trade half of them at the deadline for more prospects.

That ain't gonna happen, and we all know it.

 

[tzill]

probably an outlier here (and as a retiree my cocktail hours starts at 3:00, so take this under advisement)....

if i ran the zoo, everyone except craw would be on the trading block. my thinking is we are not going to be competitive in '18 and '19 regardless of what moves are made. in '20 posey, belt, and bum will be on the downside of their careers. panik is my boy, but he's replaceable. craw will be elite for another 5-6 yrs imo..

so.. get a game plan, extract as much rebuild value as possible and stop the year-to-year bandaid'ing

as an aside, it was just offered a 25% discount on any group sales (25 tix/game) thru this season. management knows tix sales are waning and offering the same-ol-same-ol won't cut it. fans will want optimism, and rolling out this crew will not cut it...

jmo

This is NOT what the FO is thinking.

 

[stanford the manford]

This is NOT what the FO is thinking.

well, they'll be proven wrong imo

 

[SFGRTB]

That ain't gonna happen, and we all know it.

They may not have a choice, monetarily. And by half ass it I mean sign 1 year deals and make the serious push for 2019. Still compete in 2018 if you can, but at no cost to the future.

 

[calsnowskier]

Looks like Suarez is trying to be a swell guy and making one of the decisions the FO needs to make very easy...

 

[LHG]

Looks like Suarez is trying to be a swell guy and making one of the decisions the FO needs to make very easy...

I was thinking the same thing tonight. He's going to need to pitch lights out the rest of the season for that to not happen.

 

[SFGRTB]

Looks like Suarez is trying to be a swell guy and making one of the decisions the FO needs to make very easy...

Which sucks, because it seems like his stuff is nasty (nastier than previous years). But maybe it's easy to pick up.

 

[SFGRTB]

Random thought, so Cueto is pretty much a sure bet to opt-in to the rest of his 4-year, $90M or whatever deal. It's probably not the case, and we'll never know, but I wonder if the Giants actually saved some money here. So, lets assume Cueto was having a similar year to 2016 this year. He'd be one of the top pitchers on the market, and a sure bet to opt-out. The Giants would be under a lot of pressure to re-sign him, and it's likely he would be looking at a 5-8 year deal at a higher AAV.

This doesn't take into account the possibility of the Giants being able to trade him in-season, or the market competition (maybe he doesn't want to come back), but just a way to look at it and feel a tad better.

 

[stanford the manford]

the stanton rumors are starting (again) on local radio. probably won't happen, but it's at least fun to think about