To protect or not to protect?

[LHG]

Now that the offseason has begun (playoffs are canceled this year, right?), I've been thinking more about the 33 or so players that are most likely eligible for the Rule 5 draft. That means the front office has to make some decisions (some hard decisions in a few cases).
Over here at the Giants' forum of Sports SportsHoopla, we love to play armchair front office. So I thought about highlighting 3 or 4 players are day from the list I posted in the offseason thread. Feel free to share your thoughts about the players, read the information or ignore.

For today, here are the three I picked:

Jack Snodgrass, sp (28 at start of 2016, drafted 27th round, 2011)
Snodgrass started a bit old (23) as a professional once he was drafted out of Austin Peay State University. A tall lefty, he began his career at Salem-Keizer and, from there, jumped quickly to San Jose in 2012 and then Richmond in 2013, most likely because of his age and his throwing arm. He stalled out for three years in AA before moving to Sacramento in June 2015. He pitched only a month there before losing the rest of the season to an injury. His numbers are not outstanding (best ERA of 3.56 in AA in 2014, WHIP of 1.170 in AA in 2013 and K to BB of 3.14 in SS-A in 2011).

Matthew Lujan, sp (26, non-drafted free agent, 2011)
Lujan is a local boy given a shot and has taken advantage of it, considering his draft stock (or lack of it). Another lefty, Lujan was born in Stockton and attended USF before starting his professional career in the AZL, where he excelled. He then spent injury riddled seasons in Augusta (2013, 2014), San Jose (2014) and Richmond (2015). He has steadily climbed the ladder and has posted decent numbers (ERAs of 1.95, 3.33, 2.81, 3.18; WHIPs of 0.946, 1.340, 1.255, 1.430; K/BB of 3.18, 2.29, 3.04, 2.10). His biggest problem is staying healthy. He is younger and has pitched better at each level than Snodgrass.

Phil McCormick, rp (27, 31st, 2011)
A third lefty from 2011, McCormick has been used exclusively out of the bullpen in his professional career. A product of the University of Missouri, McCormick quickly climbed the organizational ladder, reaching AA in his third season. However, he has yet to get up to triple A. He put up good numbers at Salem-Keizer in 2011 (1.19, 0.989, 2.64) but really struggled his first two years of double A. While his WHIP has not improved much (1.465 in 2013 to 1.378 in 2015), his ERA at AA has been almost halved (3.97 to 2.04). Did he finally figure things out or was 2015 a fluke? His walks per 9 have gone down (5.4 to 3.3) but so has his Ks per 9 (5.4 to 3.3). It should be noted his K/BB per 9 has also increased (1.68 to 1.81 but way down from 2.14 in 2014).

 

[calsnowskier]

I dont see any of these three getting added to the 40-man.
Remember, protecting a player from the Rule V draft is a two-pronged issue.

1) The giants like the player enough to not want to risk losing him to another club.

2) The Giants feel there is a decent chance another club will draft him. Drafting a player costs the drafting team 50K (essentially free in today's baseball economy) and the player must spend the entirety of 2016 on the 25-man roster of the drafting team.

While I am not convinced any of these three meet the first criteria, I am quite confidant that non of them meet the second. Even Philly or Arizona could find better prospects to store on their 25-man in '16.

 

[LHG]

I dont see any of these three getting added to the 40-man.
Remember, protecting a player from the Rule V draft is a two-pronged issue.

1) The giants like the player enough to not want to risk losing him to another club.

2) The Giants feel there is a decent chance another club will draft him. Drafting a player costs the drafting team 50K (essentially free in today's baseball economy) and the player must spend the entirety of 2016 on the 25-man roster of the drafting team.

While I am not convinced any of these three meet the first criteria, I am quite confidant that non of them meet the second. Even Philly or Arizona could find better prospects to store on their 25-man in '16.

Remember, the question goes beyond the 40 man roster and the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Are these guys good enough to protect on the triple A roster for the triple A portion of the draft? Same for the double A portion. I agree that none of them are good enough to carry on the 40 man roster but are they good enough to keep in the organization?

 

[calsnowskier]

Remember, the question goes beyond the 40 man roster and the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Are these guys good enough to protect on the triple A roster for the triple A portion of the draft? Same for the double A portion. I agree that none of them are good enough to carry on the 40 man roster but are they good enough to keep in the organization?

I have 100% zero understanding of that aspect of the game, and I do not believe any meaningful player has ever changed teams in those drafts, so I ignore them. I love "inside baseball", but those drafts are just TOO "inside baseball" for my tastes...

 

[LHG]

I have 100% zero understanding of that aspect of the game, and I do not believe any meaningful player has ever changed teams in those drafts, so I ignore them. I love "inside baseball", but those drafts are just TOO "inside baseball" for my tastes...

What I never thought about with the Rule 5 draft was how the rule change to who is eligible is the quality of players drafted. Read this - Ask BA: How Many Rule 5 Draft Picks Stick? - BaseballAmerica.com A few of the guys drafted this year, however, look pretty decent.

 

[LHG]

I have 100% zero understanding of that aspect of the game, and I do not believe any meaningful player has ever changed teams in those drafts, so I ignore them. I love "inside baseball", but those drafts are just TOO "inside baseball" for my tastes...

There have been a few guys drafted in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft that have made the big leagues. Alejandro DeAza is one of the bigger names drafted in the minor league phase. He was taken in the triple A phase from the Dodgers by the Marlins and made his big league debut in April 2007.

 

[LHG]

Please indulge me as I highlight three more guys from the farm that could well be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. I like to root for obscure minor leaguers from the farm and root for them when they do well. Today, I highlight three catchers:

Travis Higgs, c (27, ndfa, 2011 by Mariners, acquired via free agency 2015)
Here's another hometown guy - born in San Francisco, attended high school in Antioch and played college ball at USF. Higgs is a catcher that accumulated all of 78 plate appearances in the Mariners' organization in 2011 beore being let go. He hit decently enough last year at Fargo-Moorhead of the independent American Association to get signed by the Giants. He did not play at game as, from my understanding, he was injured the whole year. Not much to say here. His numbers as a 19 year old in the AZL in 2011 were good (.300/.372/.486), but apparently the Mariners, nor anyone else for 3 years, thought he was good enough to play in affiliated ball.

Leo Rojas, c (25, 15th, 2012)
Rojas is another catcher who spent the whole 2015 season injured. Rojas has not progressed past Augusta in the three seasons he has played. Other than a 17 game appearance in 2013 at Salem-Keizer where he posted an .835 OPS, his offense has been rather pedestrian. A product of Miami-Dade College, Rojas looks to be one of the many organizational fillers the Giants love at catcher. It remains to be seen if he could put together some good offensive numbers as he has not gotten more than 32 games played in a season.

Ben Turner, c (25, 21st, 2012)
Turner is an intriguing player, if only because he's moved so fast up the organizational ladder. Another player from Missouri, Turner sat out his first year in the organization before making his debut at Augusta in 2013. He was the primary catcher at San Jose in 2014 (interestingly, with Trevor Brown his main backup) and began 2015 in San Jose. However, as injuries and ineffectiveness decimated the catching ranks at Sacramento, he bypassed Richmond and went straight to Sacramento, where he served first as Guillermo Quiroz, then Hector Sanchez and finally as Trevor Brown's backup. His batting average (.293) and on base percentage (.359) were decent at triple A but his slugging (.337) was subpar, especially for the PCL. If he does not get drafted, he may platoon with Brown next year at Sacramento as there is not a lot of depth in the upper levels of the organization at catcher.

 

[calsnowskier]

Turner is the only one worth any attention by an MLB fan. The other two I can't believe are anything more than filler, and those are a dime a bushel.

Turner MAY be a minor prospect (I have no idea), but he plays in an org that is overflowing with catcher prospects. I expect him to start 2016 as the #5 catcher in the SF depth chart unless Sanchez is shown the door (a distinct possibility).

I do not fully understand the AAA draft, but I would ignorantly assume he would be protected from that.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I do not fully understand the AAA draft, but I would ignorantly assume he would be protected from that.

For shame, for shame

I posted this on Sep 28th : 2016 Rosterbation | Page 7 | SportsHoopla Sports Forums

First, the major league portion of the rule 5 draft :
A player must remain on the major league roster all season or be offered back to his old team. It is OK if he is on the DL, they don't *automatically* lose him. BUT, if a player selected in the Rule 5 draft spends less than 90 days on the active Major League roster because he is on the DL, he also must remain on the Major League roster the next season until he has a total of 90 days on the MLB active roster.

Now, the minor league portion of the rule 5 draft :
There are two minor-league phases. In the Triple-A phase, a player not protected on his club’s 40-man roster or 38-man Triple-A reserve list may be selected for $12,000. In the AA phase, a player not protected on his club’s 40-man roster, 38-man Triple-A reserve list or 37-man Double-A reserve list may be selected for $4,000. A player selected in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft is not required to play the next season with his drafting club at the higher organizational level.

 

[LHG]

Today I want to look at 4 position players.

John Polonius, 2nd-ss (25, ndfa?, 2012?)
Here's an interesting player, in that its hard to determine how the Giants acquired him. He was drafted by the Indians in the 30th round of the 2011 draft but never played for their organization. What I don't know is if he signed with them and they released him before he ever appeared in a game or if he went back to college at WVU and then signed as an ndfa with the Giants. In any case, Polonius, a native of Curaco, had a decent start with the Giants in the AZL in 2012 (.300/.378/.408 at age 21). He hit decently at Salem-Keizer in 2013 (.270/.333/.372) but has struggled the past three years at Augusta and San Jose (combined .228/.287/.324). He looks ready to be the next Ydwin Villegas/Skyler Stromsmoe of the organization.

Mitch Delfino, 3rd (25, 20th, 2012)
Yet another local boy (from Santa Rosa, played at Berkeley), Delfino has flashed just enough promise to move up the chain each year, going from rookie/short A ball (2012) to low A (2013) to high A (2014) to double A (2015). While not spectacular, his names were good enough to be enticing, like he was on the verge of breakthrough (.270/.324/.413 at Augusta and .289/.333/.424 at San Jose). However, his career may have hit a buzzsaw at Richmond. His numbers slumped to .256/.316/.319 in 2015. While hitters traditionally struggle more in the Eastern League, his drop has to be something of a concern. It may be possible he repeats double A in 2016. If he cannot learn what hurt him in 2015, he may become . . .

Ricky Oropesa, 1st (26, 3rd, 2011)
A USC product, Oropesa was given the fast track straight out of college, starting his professional career in 2012 at San Jose. His numbers weren't great (.263/.338/.425) so he repeated San Jose to start 2013. After a great start (.295/.368/.477) to 2013, he was promoted to Richmond, where his career has stalled out. His OPS in three seasons with Richmond has gone .562, .644 and .734. He may have finally shown enough to get promoted to triple A for 2016 but his status as a prospect has lost a lot of luster. It's helped him though that Angel Villalona has been even worse at double A.

Andrew Cain, of (26, 24th, 2012)
No relation (that I know of) to Matt, Cain has NOT been on any kind of fast track. Drafted out of UNC-Wilimington, he has yet to make it out of low A ball and his numbers have not looked good there. Missing the entire 2013 season, Cain has a career slash of .232/.312/.389, playing all but 44 of his career games at Augusta. His defense in left field hasn't been that great either. While defensive metrics are not as reliable as offense, his fielding percentage in left field, where he's played the most of his games, is .929. In his defense, he has better fielding percentages in center (.980 in 63 games) and right (.992 in 70 games). Its quite possible Cain won't be playing in the Giants' organization in 2016.

 

[calsnowskier]

Delfino is the only one of this batch that makes much difference, I think. Delfino has a ceiling and could be a util player some day. Probably more of the journeyman variety, though. Something like Culberson or Noonan or Frandsen.

 

[LHG]

Let's look at 4 pitchers taken in the 2011 draft:

Bryce Bandilla, rp (26, 4th, 2011)
Bandilla, a Arizona product, was originally drafted as a starting pitcher. He made his professional debut in 2012 and started off well in the AZL but while his ERA in Augusta was good (3.05), his WHIP was awful (1.624). The Giants converted him to a relief pitcher and shipped him to San Jose for the 2013 season, where he posted a good WHIP (1.150) and K/9 (14.6) but a pedestrian ERA (3.65). Consequently, they sent him back to San Jose in 2014. His ERA was down (3.15) but his WHIP went up (1.252) and K/9 went down (12.3) before a late season promotion to Richmond, where he got absolutely lit up (8.80 ERA, 2.152 WHIP and 5.9 K/9 in 15 appearances). Bandilla sat out the 2015 season with an injury.

Joe Biagini, sp (25, 26th, 2011)
Biagini, a UC Davis product, has had the opposite career so far of Bandilla. His 2012 debut was awful. Between Salem-Keizer and Augusta, he started 21 games and posted a 5.42 ERA, a 1.473 WHIP and a 4.5 BB/9. However, he did have a decent 9.6 K/9. He repeated Augusta in 2013 and didn't pitch much better. While his BB/9 dropped to 3.9 and his ERA dropped to 5.03 so did his K/9 (7.4) while his WHIP went up 1.490. However, he was given the promotion to San Jose where he did perform better (4.01 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.398 WHIP). The Giants moved him up again to Richmond, where he put up the best numbers of his career (2.42 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 1.120 WHIP). Did he finally figure out that he needs to let the defense handle the ball or did he benefit from the Eastern League?

Tyler Mizenko, rp (26, 28th, 2011)
Another late round pick, Mizenko has been used solely as a relief pitcher in the organization. Drafted out of Winthrop University in South Carolina, Mizenko has been a bit up and down in his career but has moved steadily up the chain. Another guy who didn't debut until 2012 (what happened in 2011 to cause the Giants to rest so many of their drafted pitchers?), his WHIP has been a bit problematic (1.011 in 2012 but followed with 1.318, 1.323 and 1.300). While he posted the best ERA (1.98) of his career in Richmond in 2015, his K/9 has dropped to 5.0 from 8.6 in Augusta two years ago. It will be interesting to see what he does in triple A.

Jacob Smith, rp (25, 48th, 2011)
Had Smith been eligible for the draft just two years later, he may not have made it out of college ball. Drafted from Campbell University in North Carolina, you'll never guess that he didn't make his debut until 2012 in the AZL, where he pitched in only 6 games. Typically, a pitcher drafted that low and makes that few appearances, no matter how well they do (and he did well, sporting a 0.808 WHIP and 13.5 K/9), they don't come back to start the next season. However, the Giants must have felt that he was something special, because they did bring him back to pitch in Salem-Keizer in 2013, where his numbers were a bit more mediocre (1.370 WHIP but with a slightly lower 11.5 K/9). He began 2014 in Augusta, posted a 2.79 ERA (with a 1.328 WHIP) and a 11.9 K/9 before moving up to San Jose to end the season. He returned to San Jose in 2015 where he absolutely dominated the Cal League, posting a 2.35 ERA, 0.842 WHIP and a 12.6 K/9. Will the Giants add him to the 40 man roster? Will they skip him straight to triple A? It will be interesting to see how they handle him.

 

[LHG]

For today's overviews, let's look at some pitchers taken in the 2012 draft:
Jason Forjet, sp (26, 31st, 2012)
A late round pick out of Florida Gulf Coast University, Forjet has had an interesting journey through the farm. He debuted, as normal late round college picks do, in the AZL and did well (1.93, 0.964, 1.9 BB/9). The Giants opted to skip him all the way from the AZL to the Cal League, where he struggled a bit (4.52, 1.476, 3.5 BB/9 but 7.8 K/9). Instead of repeating San Jose in 2014, he was pushed all the way back to Salem-Keizer, where he was 2.6 years above the average age and produced just fine (3.10, 1.149, 1.7 BB/9, 9.0 K/9). This year, he was back at San Jose, putting up some good numbers again (2.67, 1.113, 1.7 BB/9, 8.2 K/9). Forjet has yet to pitch a full season at any stop, maxing out at 14 starts in both 2014 and 2015. Is he organizational filler, moving in to a rotation that needs an extra arm? Or will he get a shot at double A in 2016?

Andrew Leenhouts, sp (26, 23rd, 2012)
Another east coast kid, Leenhouts, drafted out of Northeastern University, hasn't had any success above short season single A ball. He started his career at the AZL and struggled (4.38, 1.486) but his K/9 (14.6) and his pitching arm (left handed) combined to get him pushed to Salem-Keizer in 2013. He did much better there (2.39, 1.1144, 1.8 BB/9) but repeated S-K for 2014, with much worse results (4.75, 1.361). Interestingly, the Giants moved him up to San Jose in 2015, where he absolutely bombed in 2 starts (7.36, 1.364) and was promptly sent back to S-K (2.37, 1.263). His K/9 from the AZL seems to be a flash in the pan as it has gone down to 6.1 for 2015.

Joseph Kurrasch, sp (24, 8th, 2012)
A So Cal native, but drafted from Penn State, Kurrasch is another lefty with no much success, but most of it could be attributable to injury. The most appearances he's made in a season was 18 in 2014. He was out the whole 2015 season with injuries. When he has pitched, his numbers have been mixed. He started in the AZL, did well and moved up to S-K where he mightily struggled in three relief appearances. He started 2013 at S-K, struggled again in 8 starts (5.03, 1.676) but still got to make 7 appearances at Augusta and did well (1.78, 1.066, 11.4 K/9). As mentioned, he made 15 starts in San Jose in 2014 and pitched decently (3.07, 1.242) but struggled with his control (3.3 BB/9). Will he be healthy enough to pitch in 2016? If so, where will he start the season?

Chris Johnson, sp (24, 17th, 2012)
One of four Johnsons to pitch in the organization in 2015, Chris was drafted out of Portland. Another pitcher who has struggled with injuries, Johnson has not made it past Augusta in 4 seasons. He pitched his first two seasons as S-K, struggling horribly the first year (6.84, 1.377) but did great the second year (2.49, 0.880). He moved up to August in 2014, where he made only one start, going only 2 innings. This year, he 14 starts with Augusta and struggled badly again (5.32, 1.611). With Stephen already traded, there may well be only two Johnsons left in 2016.

 

[calsnowskier]

These are great write-ups, LHG. Solid adds. Are you cut-and-pasting from a site, or this your work?

 

[calsnowskier]

Regarding your last two posts, I think Biagini, Forjet and maybe Bandilla are the only ones who are even semi-prospects. Biagini is clearly the class of the group.

 

[Stokes1931]

Regarding your last two posts, I think Biagini, Forjet and maybe Bandilla are the only ones who are even semi-prospects. Biagini is clearly the class of the group.

I'd add Smith in there. I have seen several San Jose games this past season, and he has been quite good when I've seen him.

I am curious what happened to Vander Tuig from UCLA. He began the year in San Jose, then was placed on the DL in May, and hasn't pitched since.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'd add Smith in there. I have seen several San Jose games this past season, and he has been quite good when I've seen him.

I am curious what happened to Vander Tuig from UCLA. He began the year in San Jose, then was placed on the DL in May, and hasn't pitched since.

I agree, I'll even take it a step further and say Smith out-classes all these guys mentioned so far. He's probably the first guy mentioned here that the Giants will consider protecting on the ML roster. He's kind of in that in-between stage, another big year to start AA and he could be in conversations to pitch in the majors but he's probably not ready right out of the gate. A team would have to be desperate to get him, and there are probably better options out there.

Vander Tuig under went his second TJ surgery.

 

[calsnowskier]

As Best said, Vander Tuig underwent his second TJ this year. I saw a quote from him (i forget where, so I cant provide a link) that made me feel that he was dejected and is likely done.

 

[MarcoPolo]

For today's overviews, let's look at some pitchers taken in the 2012 draft:

Unless I have lost my math abilities, these guys don't need to be protected until after *next* season.

 

[LHG]

Unless I have lost my math abilities, these guys don't need to be protected until after *next* season.

Then maybe I am still unfamiliar with all the rules. I assumed that the clock starts from the time that they sign, so, for example, a player signed in the 2012 draft out of college has the 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons counted. Then the player becomes eligible for the draft. By your response, 2012 would not count?