2018 Roster Expectations

[LHG]

Not sure if y'all heard about the shit storm that flew over Atlanta today but it has some league-wide implications.

Former Braves GM Coppolella Permanently Banned By MLB | BaseballAmerica.com

MLB Removing Prospects From Braves | BaseballAmerica.com

I don't expect the Giants to get involved in any of these prospects, but it's worth noting that they are eligible to sign them using their next cycles' bonus pool, when the Giants' temporary limit is lifted. So theoretically they could go out and sign Kevin Maitain and would instantly become their number 2-3 prospect, and with Ramos around the same age it would make for an interesting group to follow.

I've been following it a bit and would love the Giants to look into signing a couple of these guys, but, of course, the future is now for the FO so they won't be interested.

 

[SFGRTB]

I go back and forth every day on Stanton.

Today I'm back in the "for" mode

A few interesting articles to consider:

The Case for Acquiring Stanton | FanGraphs Baseball

Giancarlo Stanton’s Opt-Out Caps His Trade Value | FanGraphs Baseball

Then there's this. Stanton's projections with the Giants:

And I think to myself.... how could I get MAD about acquiring a guy like this?

 

[LHG]

I go back and forth every day on Stanton.

Today I'm back in the "for" mode

A few interesting articles to consider:

The Case for Acquiring Stanton | FanGraphs Baseball

Giancarlo Stanton’s Opt-Out Caps His Trade Value | FanGraphs Baseball

Then there's this. Stanton's projections with the Giants:

And I think to myself.... how could I get MAD about acquiring a guy like this?

If the acquisition is purely for the purpose to be entertained by one player, then its a great trade! He's not going to fall apart overnight. But do you remember the first few years of Barry Bonds? That first year was great, thanks to a lot of career seasons by players on that team, but the next few years were pretty mediocre. It wasn't until 1997 that the Giants were competitive again.
Maybe Stanton continues to play well at 32, the age Bonds was in 1997, but there seems to be some doubt about that. Bonds posted an 8.2 WAR at age 32. Stanton projects to post a 5.2 in 2022. Plus, I don't think Bonds contract was crippling like Stanton's will be.

 

[SFGRTB]

If the acquisition is purely for the purpose to be entertained by one player, then its a great trade! He's not going to fall apart overnight. But do you remember the first few years of Barry Bonds? That first year was great, thanks to a lot of career seasons by players on that team, but the next few years were pretty mediocre. It wasn't until 1997 that the Giants were competitive again.
Maybe Stanton continues to play well at 32, the age Bonds was in 1997, but there seems to be some doubt about that. Bonds posted an 8.2 WAR at age 32. Stanton projects to post a 5.2 in 2022. Plus, I don't think Bonds contract was crippling like Stanton's will be.

I was fairly young in the early days of Bonds... so no

The Giants obviously have some sort of plan in place to shed some salary in the case of Stanton and I'm really curious what it is. We know Cueto is the likely candidate.

Another major factor going forward to though is MadBum's next contract.

There's just so many damn factors in this deal, which is why it keeps pulling and pushing me.

 

[LHG]

I was fairly young in the early days of Bonds... so no

The Giants obviously have some sort of plan in place to shed some salary in the case of Stanton and I'm really curious what it is. We know Cueto is the likely candidate.

Another major factor going forward to though is MadBum's next contract.

There's just so many damn factors in this deal, which is why it keeps pulling and pushing me.

And the contract shedding makes me think that any improvement Stanton brings to the team will be countered. How does the team replace the guys they get rid of and become a better team in the process?

 

[msgkings322]

I go back and forth every day on Stanton.

Today I'm back in the "for" mode

A few interesting articles to consider:

The Case for Acquiring Stanton | FanGraphs Baseball

Giancarlo Stanton’s Opt-Out Caps His Trade Value | FanGraphs Baseball

Then there's this. Stanton's projections with the Giants:

And I think to myself.... how could I get MAD about acquiring a guy like this?

It is tricky. The Giants are kind of in a no-easy-solution situation. I think we can all agree a total teardown Astros/White Sox style isn't happening even if we wanted it. So that leaves either making some minor meh additions or taking a big risk like Stanton. Presumably if they go Stanton they will want to try to win in the next 2-3 years. If they suck after oh well, I'd be fine with it. At least with Stanton we are taking a stand.

 

[calsnowskier]

What makes me scratch my head about the cost of Stanton at this point, is that the Giants had a chance to get him for “free” in August when the Fish placed him on waivers. The Marlins likely would have pulled him back, fair enough. But maybe not.

And if they are now looking to send prospects AND eat a significant portion of his contract, I just don’t understand why they didn’t call their bluff.

 

[LHG]

Here's yet more scuttlebutt on Stanton. This writer from Boston claims the Giants are willing to go over the threshold for 2018. That seems the opposite of what I've heard. Anyone heard this elsewhere? (The article on the Globe requires a subscription so I'm relying on what MLB Trade Rumors reports on it).
Cafardo's Latest: Stanton, Arrieta, JBJ, Zimmermann

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's yet more scuttlebutt on Stanton. This writer from Boston claims the Giants are willing to go over the threshold for 2018. That seems the opposite of what I've heard. Anyone heard this elsewhere? (The article on the Globe requires a subscription so I'm relying on what MLB Trade Rumors reports on it).
Cafardo's Latest: Stanton, Arrieta, JBJ, Zimmermann

Yeah I've heard that as well. I mean there's not much of a 'new' penalty if the Giants go over unless they sign a free agent with a QO.

The only penalty (outside of monetary) is if they spend 45% over they lose 10 spots in the draft, so don't look for the Giants to spend $237M.

Still there's really no way the Giants CAN'T go over and reasonably expect to compete, which is probably what Evans and Co are saying, "let us spend, or let us rebuild".

Now, at the same time they aren't going to plunge right past it. I'm sure they're going to try to hover around the threshold as much as possible, which is why we hear rumors of Cueto being gone if the Giants trade for Stanton.

 

[LHG]

Yeah I've heard that as well. I mean there's not much of a 'new' penalty if the Giants go over unless they sign a free agent with a QO.

The only penalty (outside of monetary) is if they spend 45% over they lose 10 spots in the draft, so don't look for the Giants to spend $237M.

Still there's really no way the Giants CAN'T go over and reasonably expect to compete, which is probably what Evans and Co are saying, "let us spend, or let us rebuild".

Now, at the same time they aren't going to plunge right past it. I'm sure they're going to try to hover around the threshold as much as possible, which is why we hear rumors of Cueto being gone if the Giants trade for Stanton.

I'm having a hard time understanding how that will make the team better. I thought Cueto was not great last year and is overpaid. And I love seeing guys from the farm get a shot on the team. With that, I would think the Giants would be hard pressed to be able to field a competitive team with their 2017 lineup with Stanton and their 2017 rotation minus Cueto. Cheaper means lesser talent, unless they strike gold. Hey, maybe they plug the next Ryan Vogelsong into the rotation in May 2018.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'm having a hard time understanding how that will make the team better. I thought Cueto was not great last year and is overpaid. And I love seeing guys from the farm get a shot on the team. With that, I would think the Giants would be hard pressed to be able to field a competitive team with their 2017 lineup with Stanton and their 2017 rotation minus Cueto. Cheaper means lesser talent, unless they strike gold. Hey, maybe they plug the next Ryan Vogelsong into the rotation in May 2018.

I agree because if you trade Cueto then replacing Cain's spot in the rotation with someone better is a moot point, if that makes sense.

The idea is that the Giants (with somewhat better health) are able to replace all those cruddy Cain/fill in starter starts (except his last one!) with Cueto, and that in itself should see some improvement.

IDK, the last I heard the Cueto rumor was from beat writers so they could be talking out of their butts.

 

[calsnowskier]

I agree because if you trade Cueto then replacing Cain's spot in the rotation with someone better is a moot point, if that makes sense.

The idea is that the Giants (with somewhat better health) are able to replace all those cruddy Cain/fill in starter starts (except his last one!) with Cueto, and that in itself should see some improvement.

IDK, the last I heard the Cueto rumor was from beat writers so they could be talking out of their butts.

As it sits now, the rotation is...

Bum
Cueto
Samardzija
Moore
Stratton

With...

Blach
Beede
Suarez
Gregorio

Maybe Blach is totally out of the running at this point?

I think trading Cueto should be OK. For a return, of course. But I am not certain which direction the org is going right now. Maybe the org isn’t certain either. Maybe they are waiting for the Stanton situation to clarify. They get him, they are in full buy mode and giving it one more go. They lose out, they blow the MFer up...

 

[SFGRTB]

As it sits now, the rotation is...

Bum
Cueto
Samardzija
Moore
Stratton

With...

Blach
Beede
Suarez
Gregorio

Maybe Blach is totally out of the running at this point?

I think trading Cueto should be OK. For a return, of course. But I am not certain which direction the org is going right now. Maybe the org isn’t certain either. Maybe they are waiting for the Stanton situation to clarify. They get him, they are in full buy mode and giving it one more go. They lose out, they blow the MFer up...

I like Blach where he is now.... a AAAA starter.

Ideally in a competing team, that's where he stays. Cueto should be better than Blach next year, and the rest of the group below him. Without him (Cueto), it becomes risky for a team trying to win.

IF the Giants go and blow it up, I like how they stack up in the upper minors with SPers. Funny how perception changes with the plan.

 

[LHG]

As it sits now, the rotation is...

Bum
Cueto
Samardzija
Moore
Stratton

With...

Blach
Beede
Suarez
Gregorio

Maybe Blach is totally out of the running at this point?

I think trading Cueto should be OK. For a return, of course. But I am not certain which direction the org is going right now. Maybe the org isn’t certain either. Maybe they are waiting for the Stanton situation to clarify. They get him, they are in full buy mode and giving it one more go. They lose out, they blow the MFer up...

But my whole point with trading Cueto is that its counter to the win now mode. Unless they know that they can sprinkle magic dust on a recently un-retired Jake Peavy and he wins the 2018 Cy Young award.

 

[SFGRTB]

Latest rumor, Giants are willing to pay ALL of Stanton's contract.

Given the general consensus that Stanton is getting around market value, it's HIGHLY doubtful the Marlins are getting anything outside of salary relief.

Which is not news. Somehow I think it's going to surprise people when Brad Hand gets traded for more than Stanton.

 

[calsnowskier]

Latest rumor, Giants are willing to pay ALL of Stanton's contract.

Given the general consensus that Stanton is getting around market value, it's HIGHLY doubtful the Marlins are getting anything outside of salary relief.

Which is not news. Somehow I think it's going to surprise people when Brad Hand gets traded for more than Stanton.

As long as they don’t lose picks due to salary penalties, I am OK with them picking him up for next to nothing. But I don’t want to hear them crying about salaries in years 5+ if they do. They will be going into this agreement with theirs eyes WIDE open.

 

[SFGRTB]

As long as they don’t lose picks due to salary penalties, I am OK with them picking him up for next to nothing. But I don’t want to hear them crying about salaries in years 5+ if they do. They will be going into this agreement with theirs eyes WIDE open.

Yeah I mean that's the thing, they're just losing their own money. but that money also circulates back into the other owners IIRC (that might just be an NBA thing). Not really a big deal unless they go crazy spending (which they shouldn't with big salaries coming off books next 2 years) or they sign a QO free agent (which they shouldn't anyway).

I'm not going to lose sleep over the Giants paying Lux Tax. Not my money.

 

[SFGRTB]

The other rumor today was McCutchen being connected to the Giants....

Which, in my opinion, would be pretty dumb. Unless the Giants' is to faux try next year but really rebuild under disguise.

McCutchen would be acquired to play CF, where he's been terrible for a couple of years now. Definitely isn't THAT much better than Span defensively.

He's also on a 1-year deal, and he'll have a higher price tag than Stanton with the Pirates looking to get compensated for the QO compensation they'll lose. I'll bet it would take Shaw or Beede, at least.

Now if they wanted to talk Cutch and Felipe Rivero, then maybe.

 

[LHG]

As long as they don’t lose picks due to salary penalties, I am OK with them picking him up for next to nothing. But I don’t want to hear them crying about salaries in years 5+ if they do. They will be going into this agreement with theirs eyes WIDE open.

The problem is, if the "just add Stanton" return to contention doesn't work, Evans probably won't be around in 5 years and the new FO will be groaning about the payroll. Worse, with all that money going toward the big league payroll, there won't be much invested in development.
I really think that the payroll is already bloated, too much for there to be a true contender in 2018 or 2019. Adding Stanton means no more free agents (other than bargain bin types) and the Giants will be shipping others off in trades. The barren farm makes for some truly outside the box type trades. Wonder if the Giants will swing them. I just hope I'm really wrong and the Giants make sure to call me out during the 2018 World Series victory parade.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I go back and forth every day on Stanton.

Today I'm back in the "for" mode

A few interesting articles to consider:

The Case for Acquiring Stanton | FanGraphs Baseball

Giancarlo Stanton’s Opt-Out Caps His Trade Value | FanGraphs Baseball

Then there's this. Stanton's projections with the Giants:

And I think to myself.... how could I get MAD about acquiring a guy like this?

Just for useless reference, that's 46.2 total WAR. At $7MM/WAR, that $323.4MM.