2018 NHL Draft

[lasgop8]

Dahlin, Svechnikov, Tkachuk, Zadina top NHL.com mock drafts

#14
Farabee
Farabee
Noel

#19
Sandin
Samuelsson
Wilde

Noel and Samuelsson Please

 

[awaz]

Noel and Samuelsson Please

Two biggest guys projected to go in the first round, why am I not surprised

I feel like big guys always get over drafted because they're big (see Morin, Gauthier, JvR, for a start). But Noel does seem to have a pretty good scouting report from most guys. But that's why I'm especially wary of drafting size, especially early. Who was the last "drafting for size" guy that was picked and the team drafting him was pleased at the end of the day? (will do some research on this today)

 

[lasgop8]

Two biggest guys projected to go in the first round, why am I not surprised

I feel like big guys always get over drafted because they're big (see Morin, Gauthier, JvR, for a start). But Noel does seem to have a pretty good scouting report from most guys. But that's why I'm especially wary of drafting size, especially early. Who was the last "drafting for size" guy that was picked and the team drafting him was pleased at the end of the day? (will do some research on this today)

I would think Washington is happy with Ovechkin and even though they did not draft him i think they are happy with Oshie . Currently Laine Sheiffle Wheeler come to mind and im sure if i did deeper i can post plenty more. But for now lets say big guys are not all disappointments

 

[awaz]

Alright, doing some research. First, some clarifiers. In a first round pick, I want to start seeing some quality NHL production from those draft picks by 3-4 years in. Since only Hischier and Patrick played meaningful NHL games last year, I'll skip the 2017 draft. I'll also classify "size" as 6'3 and up, since I would say about 6' to 6'2 would be 'good nhl height'

2016
Patrick Laine (134 pts / 155gp)
Jesse Puljujarvi (28 pts / 82gp)
Logan Brown (4gp)
Logan Stanley (0gp)
Tage Thompson (41gp, 9 points)
Riley Tufte (0gp)
Max Jones (0gp)
Henrik Borgstrom (4gp)
Julien Gauthier (0gp)

2015
Dylan Strome (28gp, 10 pts)
Pavel Zacha (140gp, 51pts)
Mikko Rantanen (165gp, 122 pts)
Lawson Crouse (83gp, 13 pts)
Gabriel Carlsson (16gp, 3 pts)

2014
Aaron Ekblad (304gp, 134 pts)
Alex Tuch (84gp, 37 pts)
Travis Sanheim (49gp, 10 pts)
Brendan Perlini (131gp, 51 pts)

Obviously points aren't everything, but I want point production from my first round picks. You can add physicality or a good role player / checking line player etc later in the draft. First round picks need to produce. Of that list of 18 players (out of 90 first round picks across the 3 years), how many do you want on your team right now? Laine, Rantanen, Ekblad are the easy ones. After those 3 you haven't really gotten much out of those picks yet. As a fan, I'm not patient enough to wait 4+ seasons for a big 1st round pick to develop, and history would indicate a lot of NHL teams aren't either. Tuch (not with the team that drafted him), Zacha, and Perlini look like decent middle 6 forwards.

I would be curious to see how 3 high end players and 3 role players out of 18 stacks up against the 6'2 and under crowd that make up the other 72 picks over that span. Perhaps I will look more in to this..

 

[awaz]

2016
Auston Matthews (144gp, 132 pts)
Matthew Tkachuk (144gp, 97 pts)
Clayton Keller (85gp, 67 pts)
Charlie McAvoy (63gp, 34pts)

Pierre-Luc Dubois (82gp, 48 pts)
Mikahil Sergachev (83gp, 40 pts)
Jakob Chychrun (118gp, 34 pts)

2015
Connor McDavid (209gp, 256 pts)
Jack Eichel (209gp, 177pts)
Mitch Marner (159gp, 130pts)
Ivan Provorov (164gp, 71pts)
Zach Werenski (155gp, 84pts)

Noah Hanifin (239gp, 83pts)
Jake DeBrusk (70gp, 43pts)
Matt Barzal (84gp, 85pts)
Kyle Connor (96gp, 62pts)
Brock Boesser (71gp, 60pts)
Travis Konecny (151gp, 75pts)

2014
Leon Draisaitl (269gp, 207pts)
William Nylander (185gp, 135pts)
Nikolaj Ehlers (236gp, 162pts)
David Pastrnak (254gp, 203pts)

Dylan Larkin (242gp, 140pts)
Sam Reinhart (249gp, 140pts)
Nick Schmaltz (139gp, 80pts)
Robbie Fabbri (123gp, 66pts)


So by my estimations, 13 high end guys, 13 role players (or haven't proved enough) out of the 72.

> 6'3, 17% high end, 33% at least role players
< 6'3, 18% high end, 36% at least role players

Interesting. Actually lines up pretty close to dead even! Perhaps my bias against bigger 1st round picks is unfounded.

 

[JBM73]

Wow, nice work there, awaz! To one of your regular points, I think where teams make mistakes with size is with guys who are average or below skaters. Most of the big guys who have had success are also plus skaters. Not necessarily speed demons, but above average.

The two guys who most intrigue me at the moment, although both will likely require a trade up, are Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Joe Veleno. Both have the potential to step into the 3C role within a couple of years and be Cup contender 3C quality, with the ability to grow above that. 3C remains the spot that the Flyers don't have a clear upcoming prospect. I like Frost, but he's not a sure fire C at the NHL level. Rubstov has disappointed a bit in the Q.

 

[lasgop8]

2016
Auston Matthews (144gp, 132 pts)
Matthew Tkachuk (144gp, 97 pts)
Clayton Keller (85gp, 67 pts)
Charlie McAvoy (63gp, 34pts)

Pierre-Luc Dubois (82gp, 48 pts)
Mikahil Sergachev (83gp, 40 pts)
Jakob Chychrun (118gp, 34 pts)

2015
Connor McDavid (209gp, 256 pts)
Jack Eichel (209gp, 177pts)
Mitch Marner (159gp, 130pts)
Ivan Provorov (164gp, 71pts)
Zach Werenski (155gp, 84pts)

Noah Hanifin (239gp, 83pts)
Jake DeBrusk (70gp, 43pts)
Matt Barzal (84gp, 85pts)
Kyle Connor (96gp, 62pts)
Brock Boesser (71gp, 60pts)
Travis Konecny (151gp, 75pts)

2014
Leon Draisaitl (269gp, 207pts)
William Nylander (185gp, 135pts)
Nikolaj Ehlers (236gp, 162pts)
David Pastrnak (254gp, 203pts)

Dylan Larkin (242gp, 140pts)
Sam Reinhart (249gp, 140pts)
Nick Schmaltz (139gp, 80pts)
Robbie Fabbri (123gp, 66pts)


So by my estimations, 13 high end guys, 13 role players (or haven't proved enough) out of the 72.

> 6'3, 17% high end, 33% at least role players
< 6'3, 18% high end, 36% at least role players

Interesting. Actually lines up pretty close to dead even! Perhaps my bias against bigger 1st round picks is unfounded.

13 high end guys out of 72 draft picks is 18% and 36% professionals in total. I haven't done the math but that is pretty much the going rate for any size player making it to the show out of the first round so i would take my chances going big.

 

[Maverick426h]

I say if we can't trade up for Wahlstrom, then maybe Kotkaniemi or Veleno fall to us at #14 and we can still get a right-handed defender like Wilde or Merkley at #19.

Either way, we can trade up and draft an elite guy to solidify one position or fill two needs with lesser players that may still be very good.

It's a huge win to own the St. Louis pick and also have it be as high as #14 overall. If it were top ten, they would've surely taken it back from us.

Essentially, just grab the best players available at both picks if we don't end up trading up.

 

[JBM73]

My gut today says (prediction, not my preference necessarily):

No trade up.

#14 - C Barrett Hayton

#19 - D Alexander Alexeyev

Of course, it could just be gas...

 

[Maverick426h]

I'm sure St. Louis figured that pick wasn't even going to be top 20 when they traded it to us. Well, look at it now. Their pick ended up being better than ours, which is pretty satisfying.

 

[awaz]

My gut today says (prediction, not my preference necessarily):

No trade up.

#14 - C Barrett Hayton

#19 - D Alexander Alexeyev

Of course, it could just be gas...

The more I read on Hayton the more I like him. I don’t think he’ll make it to 14 though. Someone will reach for a C.

 

[JBM73]

The more I read on Hayton the more I like him. I don’t think he’ll make it to 14 though. Someone will reach for a C.

Yeah, I know he's still listed as going in the top 13 on most draft boards but I've been watching him slowly but steadily slip down. When I first starting paying more attention to the draft he seemed to be going consistently in the 8-10 range. Now I see him going in the 11-13 range. If he continues to slip a bit 14 is a possibility. I think the reason is that the scouting reports seem to question his ceiling. He may be a relatively safe pick in terms of carving out a role in the NHL, but there are a lot of questions as to whether or not that can be in a team's top 6. Anyway, he could still definitely been gone before 14.

 

[JBM73]

Ok, so I think I'd be comfortable with taking any of the guys consistently projected to go in the top 13 at #14. After those 13, it seems like there's another drop off at that point. Hopefully a surprise player goes a bit earlier than projected and one of those guys slips to 14. Otherwise, I hope Hextall trades up.

1 Buffalo Rasmus Dahlin D Frolunda HC (SHL) 6' 2.75" 185
2 Carolina Andrei Svechnikov RW Barrie (OHL) 6' 2" 192
3 Montreal Jesperi Kotkaniemi C Assat Pori (SM-liiga) 6' 2" 181
4 Ottawa Quinton Hughes D Michigan 5' 10" 176
5 Arizona Filip Zadina RW Halifax (QMJHL) 6' 0" 197
6 Detroit Oliver Wahlstrom LW USNTDP (USHL) 6' 1" 198
7 Vancouver Adam Boqvist D Brynäs IF (SHL) 5' 11.5" 165
8 Chicago Brady Tkachuk LW Boston University 6' 3" 192
9 NY Rangers Evan Bouchard D London (OHL) 6' 2" 196
10 Edmonton Noah Dobson D Acadie-Bathurst (QMJHL) 6' 3" 177
11 NY Islanders Barrett Hayton C Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 6' 1.25" 190
12 NY Islanders Ty Smith D Spokane (WHL) 5' 10.75" 176
13 Dallas Joe Veleno C Drummondville (QMJHL) 6' 1" 194

 

[awaz]

I think Hextall wants Bouchard or Dobson. He'll have to move up to get one of them though. I'm going to say once one comes off the board, Hextall will be calling to move up. That's my gut.

I'd be cool with either of them. Not my favorites, I want offense , but I do think it makes sense to take a dman in the 1st round this season.

 

[chy1127]

I think Hextall wants Bouchard or Dobson. He'll have to move up to get one of them though. I'm going to say once one comes off the board, Hextall will be calling to move up. That's my gut.

I'd be cool with either of them. Not my favorites, I want offense , but I do think it makes sense to take a dman in the 1st round this season.

I would think it would be easier to move up to Edmonton. Our 14th pick and ? pick to move up 4 spots doesn't seem to be a lot to get a RD. Would not have to include a prospect for 4 spots. Would be great if Wilde is still there at 19, but do we take that chance?

 

[awaz]

I would think it would be easier to move up to Edmonton. Our 14th pick and ? pick to move up 4 spots doesn't seem to be a lot to get a RD. Would not have to include a prospect for 4 spots. Would be great if Wilde is still there at 19, but do we take that chance?

I think you could maybe do 14 + 50 + later round pick, to move up to 10. I would think Edmonton would be looking D though also.

 

[JBM73]

Would be great if Wilde is still there at 19, but do we take that chance?

Wilde and Merkley seem to have character concerns. That's a big no-no for Hextall. Although, he might deem the risk worth it at 19.

 

[JBM73]

I think Hextall wants Bouchard or Dobson.

I definitely see drawing that conclusion based off of what Hextall has said. It just seems so out of character for him to reveal much of anything. It's almost like the player he is targeting is NOT a D or C, and he's trying to put out a smokescreen. Not sure if that would mean he's possibly looking to trade up or down...although, based on what I said about Wilde and Merkley he WILL need to trade up if he really wants a RHD.

 

[awaz]

I definitely see drawing that conclusion based off of what Hextall has said. It just seems so out of character for him to reveal much of anything. It's almost like the player he is targeting is NOT a D or C, and he's trying to put out a smokescreen. Not sure if that would mean he's possibly looking to trade up or down...although, based on what I said about Wilde and Merkley he WILL need to trade up if he really wants a RHD.

That does seem very Hextall. Great point.

 

[JBM73]

My gut today says BPA at 14, and then they will adjust their target at 19 accordingly based on the position taken and may move up or down as needed.