2016 Regular season thread

[UVA_Guy81]

Addendum:

Obviously, a notable disadvantage of this system is that there is less room for error: You're essentially operating on the pitching version of "short bench." To make it work, everyone needs to be flexible:

• If the 1st person on a relay team is doing well, it's still okay to leave him in for the 6th or even 7th inning. That would change the game plan from 5+4 to 6+3 or 7+2, which still allows you to save the short relievers for another game while also allowing the 2nd member of the relay team to pitch again fewer than 5 days into the future.
  
  
• Likewise, if the starter has to leave the game early, 5+4 could turn into 4+5, or 3+4+2, or even 2+5+1+1, etc. In that scenario, the 1st starter might have to be asked to pitch again in fewer than 5 days if he was knocked out early due to poor performance as opposed to hitting the pitch count.

Very true. If someone has an awful night, it's going to make for a very long, excruciating game.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Very true. If someone has an awful night, it's going to make for a very long, excruciating game.

You'd have the same issue even with a conventional "5 starters / 7 relievers" pitching staff, though: In a blowout where the starter is gone after 1 inning, someone will have to the mop-up pitcher, after which extra help from AAA will probably be necessary no matter what.


But I think the risk of this scenario can be minimized if the relay teams are made fluid. For example, suppose that each player is assigned to the following three groups:

• A: "Starter" / "1st co-starter" of relay team (5 players, e.g. Tillman + Gallardo + Jimenez + Gausman + Worley)
  
• B: 2nd "co-stater" of relay team / long reliever (3 players, e.g. Wilson + Wright + Bundy)
  
• C: Short reliever (4 players, e.g. Brach + Matusz + O'Day + Britton)

At the start of each game, the game would be managed normally: Let the starter stay in the game for as long as possible, provided that his performance is satisfactory. But we would expect only 5 innings out of him on average.

• If the starter lasts for 7-8 innings, great: the remaining innings could be picked up by 1-2 Cs.
  
  
• If the starter lasts for 6 innings, you can either have a B pick up the remaining 3 innings all by himself, or split them 2 + 1 with a C (which allows the B-type player used in this game to pitch again in 2-3 days at most).
  
  
• If the starter is only good for 5 or fewer innings, that's okay; a B will be expected to throw as much as a full starter and be unavailable for the next 4 games (that's why he can be considered a "co-starter").

The bottom line is that this strategy aims to minimize the probability that a short reliever would have to pitch on consecutive days by allowing as many pitchers to throw for multiple innings as possible. In other words, you would try to avoid using the Cs unless there are 2 or fewer innings left in a game, or if there are no Bs available.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

On a somewhat unrelated note, Jake Arrieta pitched another no hitter. Why couldn't he do this while he was here?

 

[tedman2012]

On a somewhat unrelated note, Jake Arrieta pitched another no hitter. Why couldn't he do this while he was here?

under pressure

 

[tedman2012]

kc will be a true test . let's go o's

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Tonight's lineup

Joey Rickard LF
Manny Machado 3B
Adam Jones CF
Chris Davis 1B
Mark Trumbo RF
J.J. Hardy SS
Jonathan Schoop 2B
Pedro Alvarez DH
Caleb Joseph C

If it were me, I'd alter the lineup for tonight a little bit:

Joey Rickard RF
Adam Jones CF
Manny Machado 3B
Chris Davis 1B
Mark Trumbo DH
Jonathan Schoop 2B
J.J. Hardy SS
Nolan Reimold or Kim LF
Caleb Joseph C

 

[all4ripken]

Well I think it's now safe to say that our starting pitching is officially shit. They better figure something out quick, because at this rate our relievers are gonna be dead by June...

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Well I think it's now safe to say that our starting pitching is officially shit. They better figure something out quick, because at this rate our relievers are gonna be dead by June...

I think it was safe to say that on opening day during Spring Training.

 

[all4ripken]

I think it was safe to say that on opening day during Spring Training.

No, no real baseball had been played at that point, but the rotation obviously looked suspect, even more so with Gausman starting on the DL (and for the record, I've never been a Gausman fan, don't think he'll ever amount to much). And in the first 7 games, SP ERA was under 3. But now that most starters have 3 starts under their belt, it's gone downhill very quick. I'm amazed they're 10-5, assuming they don't come back tonight, given not a single starter has gone 7+

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Well I think it's now safe to say that our starting pitching is officially shit. They better figure something out quick, because at this rate our relievers are gonna be dead by June...

With the benefit of hindsight, you have to wonder if the Orioles should have matched the Marlins' contract for Chen... with the hope that he would save the club money by opting out after 2 years. Sure, Chen has also started the 2016 season badly as well... but I'd still rather take his performance versus that of Gallardo so far. (Maybe Gallardo isn't as healthy as the team thought he was? Based on the small sample size so far, this might be a worse deal than signing Jimenez-- the organization lost a draft pick to sign him, after all.)

 

[tedman2012]

seems like galdo needs the dl which is good because i want to see what wright and wilson can do . as far as the bullpen being toast our bp is made up of mostly starters in the pen worley , matusz , wilson , tj , britton and bundy . we have 3 with options so we can ship them out to get some rest and back up . we have some nice arms tucked away at aaa . without looking i like drake for one .

 

[stealth]

I like what I see in Wilson...low pitch count and putting in some distant innings...keep Gausman down for a 110% healthy return

 

[all4ripken]

With the benefit of hindsight, you have to wonder if the Orioles should have matched the Marlins' contract for Chen... with the hope that he would save the club money by opting out after 2 years. Sure, Chen has also started the 2016 season badly as well... but I'd still rather take his performance versus that of Gallardo so far. (Maybe Gallardo isn't as healthy as the team thought he was? Based on the small sample size so far, this might be a worse deal than signing Jimenez-- the organization lost a draft pick to sign him, after all.)

After Wieters accepted the qualifying offer, I doubt the front office will be "hoping" any player doesn't take the guaranteed money on the table. So matching Chen's contract could have ended up costing them a helluva lot more $$ in the end. I'd only agree with you because Chen is a lefty, which we obvious lack. But I gotta say I did not expect Gallardo's fastball to be clocking out at like 86...

 

[all4ripken]

I like what I see in Wilson...low pitch count and putting in some distant innings...keep Gausman down for a 110% healthy return

Isn't it pathetic that it's come to the point where we think going 5 is decent innings? Granted, I think he only threw around 70 pitches. Definitely a low expectations pitching staff.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Isn't it pathetic that it's come to the point where we think going 5 is decent innings? Granted, I think he only threw around 70 pitches. Definitely a low expectations pitching staff.

And what sucks even more is next offseason, there really doesn't look like a whole lot of good starting pitchers to choose from, even if we wanted to spend money for them.

 

[stealth]

And what sucks even more is next offseason, there really doesn't look like a whole lot of good starting pitchers to choose from, even if we wanted to spend money for them.

That's just it, A good pitching staff is hard to come by for all teams the past 30 years, its been a hitters game since the 80's. From the 70's and prior to it was a pitchers game. So 5 innings for a starter is okay if you have a good relief system. Money and what type of talent has evolved to the point of contemporary baseball

 

[UVA_Guy81]

That's just it, A good pitching staff is hard to come by for all teams the past 30 years, its been a hitters game since the 80's. From the 70's and prior to it was a pitchers game. So 5 innings for a starter is okay if you have a good relief system. Money and what type of talent has evolved to the point of contemporary baseball

Going 5 innings might be okay for a 4-5 guy in the rotation but you're going to want your top 3 guys to be able to go at least 6-7+ on most nights. For whatever reason, we just haven't been able to have top of the line pitchers since Mussina. We had Jake Arrieta but he was horrible here but as soon as he got traded and was allowed to use his cutter, he's become one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the game right now.

The best pitcher in next years free agency class looks like Strasburg. While he has great stats when he's healthy, he also comes with a huge injury risk. So the question with him would be is he going to be able to play out the contract without any major injuries.

 

[stealth]

Going 5 innings might be okay for a 4-5 guy in the rotation but you're going to want your top 3 guys to be able to go at least 6-7+ on most nights. For whatever reason, we just haven't been able to have top of the line pitchers since Mussina. We had Jake Arrieta but he was horrible here but as soon as he got traded and was allowed to use his cutter, he's become one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the game right now.

The best pitcher in next years free agency class looks like Strasburg. While he has great stats when he's healthy, he also comes with a huge injury risk. So the question with him would be is he going to be able to play out the contract without any major injuries.

True! But Buck Ball is different. If your starters are getting in trouble early then you have to pull them at that moment in time to go for the win. Todays game of hitters the pitching game has to change at the moments' notice. AS far as Strasburg, those types of pitchers aren't coming into the system as they were in the 70's, they are a rare find these days.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

After Wieters accepted the qualifying offer, I doubt the front office will be "hoping" any player doesn't take the guaranteed money on the table. So matching Chen's contract could have ended up costing them a helluva lot more $$ in the end. I'd only agree with you because Chen is a lefty, which we obvious lack. But I gotta say I did not expect Gallardo's fastball to be clocking out at like 86...

Obviously, you can't change history... I only re-raised Chen as an example because Gallardo has seriously underperformed so far (and I don't like the possibility of losing both money AND games while weakening the farm system further). My point was simply this: Given the Orioles organization's inability to develop starting pitchers in recent years, they would have to do a combination of the following to stay competitive:

1) Make up for the weakness in pitching by having above-average hitting and/or defense;
2) Adjust the strategy for handling the pitching staff to rely less on starters; and/or
3) Overpay for starters in free agency to a greater extent than other teams.

==> It looks like (1) is already being done, and Buck might be doing (2) to some extent as well. The question is whether this is enough, and the most recent series versus the Royals suggests that the answer might be "no." (As of yesterday, the Orioles top the MLB in OPS... but they only managed to score 3.67 runs per game in this series. That looks like an example of "good pitching always beats good hitting" to me...)

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Side note:

Apparently, Orioles starters as a group have had a large ERA-FIP discrepancy in 2016 so far: It's 5.18 vs. 3.94 as of yesterday. For comparison, the figures for 2012-2015 are 4.28 vs. 4.45. In other words, the 2016 Orioles probably has had bad luck... or a much worse defense.

Which is true? Probably a combination of both:

• BABIP for starters: 0.290 in 2012-15, 0.326 in 2016 so far
• UZR/150 for all position players: +4.3 in 2012-15, -17.8 so far (tiny sample, but still... yikes!)

==> So where is the defensive penalty coming from? Trumbo, apparently (and it's not even close). With Alvarez's cold streak still in place, I think the default lineup calls for a Reimold / Kim platoon so that Trumbo can be the everyday DH.