2015 Pirates

[ramburgh]

Thoughts?

The big question/decision is the first baseman. Bring back G. Sanchez and/or Davis? I think Ike Davis gets hot for the last month + of this year. Also, Tony Sanchez and Andrew Lambo are potential bench bats for 1B.

If not signed to multi-year deals, I offer qualifying offers to Martin, Liriano and Volquez. They will probably all want multi-year deals, so if the Pirates aren't able to reach an agreement I at least do a qualifying offer to get potential draft pick compensation. Hopefully the Pirates learned the risk/reward of this from the AJ Burnett situation last year.

My team would include:
Harrison (3B), Polanco (RF), McCutchen (CF), Walker (2B), Martin (C), Alaverz (1B), Marte (LF), Mercer (SS)
BN- Davis (Alvarez insurance), Snider (OF), T. Sanchez (C/1B)/Lambo (1B), ? (C), ? (UTIL - solid SS D)
SP- Cole, FA/Liriano or Volquez, Morton, Locke, Worley
*Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon being possible call-ups by mid-season.
BP- Axford (bring him back at $3-4M?), Melancon, Watson, Wilson, Hughes, ?, ?

Add - Two relievers and two bench spots (catcher and util infielder). Maybe Frieri can figure it out as he is still arby eligible?
AAA- Cumpton, Tabata
Gone - G. Sanchez, Stewart, Barmes, Gomez, Pimentel

Granted, this is assuming the Pirates can bring Martin and Axford back plus either Volquez or Liriano. Financially, this should be doable as Wandy and Grilli will be off the books.

 

[sychmd]

Thoughts?

The big question/decision is the first baseman. Bring back G. Sanchez and/or Davis? I think Ike Davis gets hot for the last month + of this year. Also, Tony Sanchez and Andrew Lambo are potential bench bats for 1B.

If not signed to multi-year deals, I offer qualifying offers to Martin, Liriano and Volquez. They will probably all want multi-year deals, so if the Pirates aren't able to reach an agreement I at least do a qualifying offer to get potential draft pick compensation. Hopefully the Pirates learned the risk/reward of this from the AJ Burnett situation last year.

My team would include:
Harrison (3B), Polanco (RF), McCutchen (CF), Walker (2B), Martin (C), Alaverz (1B), Marte (LF), Mercer (SS)
BN- Davis (Alvarez insurance), Snider (OF), T. Sanchez (C/1B)/Lambo (1B), ? (C), ? (UTIL - solid SS D)
SP- Cole, FA/Liriano or Volquez, Morton, Locke, Worley
*Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon being possible call-ups by mid-season.
BP- Axford (bring him back at $3-4M?), Melancon, Watson, Wilson, Hughes, ?, ?

Add - Two relievers and two bench spots (catcher and util infielder). Maybe Frieri can figure it out as he is still arby eligible?
AAA- Cumpton, Tabata
Gone - G. Sanchez, Stewart, Barmes, Gomez, Pimentel

Granted, this is assuming the Pirates can bring Martin and Axford back plus either Volquez or Liriano. Financially, this should be doable as Wandy and Grilli will be off the books.

i agree with your thoughts, but here is how i would find some more answers.
we don't have enough pitching to make a dent in the playoffs. so i really want to see
lambo, pimentel, t sanchez perform in september.

i like the versatility with many of our players.

so t sanchez can play RH 1B for most of the year and bell will learn 1B and will be up middle of next year to take over for t sanchez as a platoon, then FT hopefully by middle of 2016.

marte, now that he is not the leadoff guy, is crushing it. the best in the league since the all star break as far as OPS.

mercer has recovered and harrison will be the unconventional but typical modern day 3B.

hanson could be our MIF off the bench and late game PR by middle of 2015.

martin is the real issue. need to resign and guess right on which of the volquez/liriano to sign.
hopefully the injury bug isn't as severe next year.

 

[Darkstone42]

Martin is priority number 1. After that, I try to bring back both Liriano and Volquez, then look to address the issue at first base.

I don't know what the market has, but I would love for us to be able to get a proven bat to play first. A legitimate cleanup hitter. It would let Walker slot into a better spot for him, let us bat Cutch second, and just overall deepen the lineup.

I think Polanco will be ready to take full-time leadoff duties next year, then Cutch, Harrison, FA 1B, Walker, Martin, Marte, Mercer. Pedro could be a bench guy or we could try to deal him.

I'd also look for a sure-fire arm for the pen to deepen it and take the pressure off a few guys.

 

[sychmd]

i think the FA market at both 1B and C supposed to be dismal and aged.

unless we pull off a trade, martin picked the right time to have his best year.
i believe we will have to be creative with internal options again to determine who is the best platoon sand placeholder for josh bell.

LH - pedro, ike, lambo
RH - gaby, t sanchez,

 

[element1286]

1. Russell Martin
2. Rebuilding the Pen
3. Liriano

I don't see much else that is a priority, I'd take Volquez back, but he's nowhere near a priority, his peripherals are replacement level.

I'm fine with whomever they pick at first base. Don't see it as a huge need, and outside of the elite, the position is very shallow on mid tier players. Would rather invest in Martin or the Pen or Liriano than spend 3-36 on a guy like Adam Laroche.

 

[thecrow124]

Being realistic, there is not a happy ending with very much of this. I don't believe that we resign Russell Martin. NH is, was and always will be a "fill from the system", guy. So I believe that we will go into next year with Tony Sanchez as our starting catcher until and unless Elias Diaz forces his way to the majors. Unless Martin would accept something along the lines of a 3/27-30 type deal, I think they believe that highly in Diaz.

I believe they should try to bring back Volquez on a Morton type deal, but I don't believe they will, and he doesn't deserve a QO. Liriano should get a QO, and likely will, but he has pitched himself out of our price range. Not what we could afford, just what NH is willing to pay.

Pedro should be released, he is going to get a raise through arb, and he doesn't deserve the money he is making this year, let alone more, however, Ike Davis and Gaby Sanchez also deserve to be released, so at the very least one of the three will have to be retained.

That leaves us with holes at C, 1B, and 2 SP's, and most of the bullpen. By the end of the year, Diaz will likely be our catcher unless he falls on his face. Bell could be up at 1B by the end of next season, so not likely to be a longer term fill added through FA there. That brings us to the SP's, if we can get either of Volquez or Liriano to sign with us then that goes a long way towards solving the problems there. Kingham can come up after a couple weeks since he isn't likely to be the kind of pitcher that will break the bank through arbitration, not to say he won't be a fine pitcher, just probably won't have those flashy numbers.

Sitting here thinking, it may be unwise to not bring back Liriano and Martin. There is no way this team next year has a shot in the post season without 2 top of the rotation starters. It is what every team needs for success in short series'. Liriano and Cole would just about as good of a 1-2 punch as any NL team could put out there. Martin should be brought back because he is every bit as important to the success of this team as Andrew McCutchen.

Regardless, I am rambling, next season has the makings of a very not good year.

 

[Darkstone42]

Just bringing back Martin and Liriano should be enough to stay competitive until Bell is ready. Polanco should be better next year, Snider is a fine fourth outfielder, and if we retain our core, we should be alright.

I'd dangle Pedro looking for another affordable but capable starting pitcher or a bullpen arm and a stop-gap at first base. I wouldn't just let him go unless the arbitration number is ridiculous and we can't deal him. As this season has worn on, I've grown pretty confident in Bell. The power hasn't come yet in AA, but the average is there, and his BB% and K% are still about where they've been.

Alen Hanson also appears to be figuring it out, but I think he'll need one more full year in the minors before he's ready.

One guy who remains extremely intriguing as a possible corner infielder in the future is Stetson Allie. He doesn't hit for average, but he controls the strike zone, and his power is tremendous. He's actually been better since making the jump to AA, which is promising. He could be another option as early as next year.

I am interested to see if the Pirates give Kingham a few starts after the September callups. He's pitched really well in AAA, and he could be as capable as a guy like Locke, Worley, or Volquez in their respective roles next year, perhaps slotting in behind Morton.

If we just sign back Liriano and Martin, figure out something to do in the bullpen and at first base while we wait for Bell or Allie to make the jump, I think we'll have another good, competitive season.

 

[element1286]

I see Russell Martin getting undervalued on the FA market, just catchers in general are not good long term bets. Brian McCann got 5/85 from the Yankees, and they were just throwing money around after Cano left, don't think Martin comes anywhere near those numbers.

I don't Martin would take 3/30, but I bet he would take 3/40-45.

As for Liriano, 2/25 plus a vesting option for a third if he pitches 350 innings between the two years, or something like that.

 

[thecrow124]

I see Russell Martin getting undervalued on the FA market, just catchers in general are not good long term bets. Brian McCann got 5/85 from the Yankees, and they were just throwing money around after Cano left, don't think Martin comes anywhere near those numbers.

I don't Martin would take 3/30, but I bet he would take 3/40-45.

As for Liriano, 2/25 plus a vesting option for a third if he pitches 350 innings between the two years, or something like that.

I would guess that Liriano has pitched well enough to get himself a 4-5 year deal, unless I am way off on his age, isn't he only 30 or 31?

The problem with Martin and a long term deal is that Diaz would be sitting in AAA for the entire time. Or at the very least until McGuire hit AA. That is the reason I said 3/30, I think the Pirates would be happy to bring him back for 1-2 years, but not 3. So at 3/30, they could say they made a competitive offer, but it just wasn't good enough. I don't see them going 4 years on anyone that is past arbitration.

I do believe that it would be in the best interrest of the team to bring both of them back, I just don't think they will, and history has shown that I am probably correct.

As for Volquez, he may be a very average pitcher, but he is a very average Major League pitcher. As much as I can sit here and dream about Glasnow, Taillon and Kingham in the major league rotation with Cole and whoever else, there is no guarantee at all that any of the three will make it to the majors, let alone what they will be when they do. I guess for me it would be more of a security blanket than anything else. I also think that if Volquez was shifted to the bullpen that he could be a dominant late inning guy.

 

[element1286]

I would guess that Liriano has pitched well enough to get himself a 4-5 year deal, unless I am way off on his age, isn't he only 30 or 31?

The problem with Martin and a long term deal is that Diaz would be sitting in AAA for the entire time. Or at the very least until McGuire hit AA. That is the reason I said 3/30, I think the Pirates would be happy to bring him back for 1-2 years, but not 3. So at 3/30, they could say they made a competitive offer, but it just wasn't good enough. I don't see them going 4 years on anyone that is past arbitration.

I do believe that it would be in the best interrest of the team to bring both of them back, I just don't think they will, and history has shown that I am probably correct.

As for Volquez, he may be a very average pitcher, but he is a very average Major League pitcher. As much as I can sit here and dream about Glasnow, Taillon and Kingham in the major league rotation with Cole and whoever else, there is no guarantee at all that any of the three will make it to the majors, let alone what they will be when they do. I guess for me it would be more of a security blanket than anything else. I also think that if Volquez was shifted to the bullpen that he could be a dominant late inning guy.

I think teams are weary of guys that are always injured moreso than anything, I just can't see him getting 4+ years. But we will see.

Yeah, I hear you on Diaz, but there isn't reason they couldn't trade Martin if/when the time comes. I know they like Diaz, but he's still only 30 PA's into AAA.

I think 'average' is overstating Volquez's case. He's held up pretty well as a replacement level performer who is durable/consistent. I guess my stance with Volquez is I don't find him to be any type of priority, but given they could get him on a good deal, then yeah I wouldn't be against it. No way I give him more than 1 year, 8 million though.

 

[sychmd]

i would not give a QO to volquez,
would consider it for liriano, but he would need to have an awesome finish to the year and playoffs.
doubt it for martin unless you made some other really sweet moves and could afford 14M for C for one year when the other pieces are in place for a serious run.

 

[element1286]

i would not give a QO to volquez,
would consider it for liriano, but he would need to have an awesome finish to the year and playoffs.
doubt it for martin unless you made some other really sweet moves and could afford 14M for C for one year when the other pieces are in place for a serious run.

I'd give QO to both Lriano and Martin, and hope they both accept. 14M for one year would be a good deal for both.

 

[ramburgh]

If Martin got a 3 year deal and Diaz continues to progress and is ready during that period, Martin should be easy to trade even at something on the high range (3/$45M). As mentioned, there aren't a lot of quality catchers and some team would definitely be interested in Martin if Diaz is ready in 1.5-2 years.

I think the Pirates should definitely make QO to Liriano and Martin. There is little to lose with it being a one year contract or draft picks. The FO should definitely have the financial flexibility to do such. Ideally, something gets done with Martin prior to that point.

I hate to give up on Ike Davis too soon as he has shown flashes and seems to be a good clubhouse guy. He is only 27. Pirates tend to give up on power guys a bit too soon (Bautista and Moss).

If Harrison regresses and Pedro figures out how to throw to first, it will be good to have Ike at first. Also, we have not seen enough of Pedro at first to be comfortable with him there. The window to win won't last forever so taking gambles on position changes is too risky without a solid Plan B.

 

[ramburgh]

Pirates currently have 4 of the top 14 offensive WAR in the NL:
7. McCutchen - 5.0
9. Martin - 4.5
11. Harrison - 4.2
14. Marte - 4.0
(50. Mercer - 2.3 and 54. Walker - 2.2)

If Pedro and or Ike could put it together along with a more experienced Polanco then the Pirates look really dangerous. If Walker could stay healthy he should move up quite a bit. That's a dangerous line-up which I think is often overlooked by the lack of power.

 

[sychmd]

Pirates currently have 4 of the top 14 offensive WAR in the NL:
7. McCutchen - 5.0
9. Martin - 4.5
11. Harrison - 4.2
14. Marte - 4.0
(50. Mercer - 2.3 and 54. Walker - 2.2)

If Pedro and or Ike could put it together along with a more experienced Polanco then the Pirates look really dangerous. If Walker could stay healthy he should move up quite a bit. That's a dangerous line-up which I think is often overlooked by the lack of power.

C - #2
2B - #3
3B - #2
SS - #6
LF - #1
CF - #2
RF - #9 (Snider) #15 (Polanco)
1B - #19 (Davis)

1B actually seems to be one of the weakest groups after 2B and RF.

marte is #1 LF and only really shining for half the year since out of leadoff.
having those 3 in the OF and in the right places in the order should be amazing if they stay healthy. with their speed, they are flying around a lot and more collisions for slender bodies.

too bad our SP and BP have let us down. even just 5 games(74-59) would make such a huge difference right now.

 

[ramburgh]

Holdzkom was impressive. Maybe the Pirates found something. He could turn into a solid set-up man next year. The question then is do the 2015 Pirates holds come from Holdzkom? =)

Bullpen could then be Melancon, Watson, Hughes, Wilson, Holdzkom, long reliever (Worley or Locke?) with potential wildcards being Axford and Frieri.

 

[Darkstone42]

Russell Martin reminded the Pirates again that they need to resign him.

 

[thedddd]

Pirates Willing To Stretch Payroll To Retain Martin ? MLB Trade Rumors

As they should and hope they do.

 

[steelparrot]

Counting Liriano(8 mill) Martin (8.5 mill) Wandy (7.5) Barmes (2) Grilli/Freiri(4 mill) Davis (3.5)

That is 33.5 million dollars coming off the payroll, assuming we trade/nontender Davis.


Considering we were about 10-15 mill under payroll because of our fail in the offseason, we should have about 30 to spend after raises.

I try to give that cash to Martin and Liriano.


On a non payroll issue, I move Harrison to 2nd and Walker to 3rd. I think Harrison has better range and this would be our optimal defensive infield imo.

 

[thedddd]

Yeah they really need to resign Martin and make that the top priority. Not that the NL wildcard showed anything but the AL wildcard proved the importance of a catcher. Norris was an 0-fer throwing out Royal batters and then dropping the ball on that pitch out cost them the game since it put the winning run in scoring position.