:: 2015-2016 Cap Central ::

[awaz]

This article is written from the Oilers perspective, but helps shed some light on who the Flyers should be pursuing to replace Emery:

Woodblog: A look at the top UFA goalies and some goalies who are rumoured to be available via trade

Can't open the link, but my only real hope is that the Flyers don't give up very much in a trade, if they do go that route. I'd prefer free agency. Giving up a draft pick or even a moderately legit prospect for a backup goalie is a pretty big waste IMO. Backup goalies should play 20 games tops, which is a decent chunk, but if you're a handful of wins from a backup goalie away from making the playoffs, you're probably not competing for the cup. And a backup goalie doesn't matter at all in the post season (unless your guy goes down).

 

[JBM73]

ADJUSTED SAVE PERCENTAGE IS OUR TOOL OF CHOICE
Waronice describes Adjusted Save Percentage as:

AdjustedSvPct: Adjusted save percentage; this adjusts for the fact that some teams give up more high-quality shots, while others give up more low-quality shots. This is the weighted-average of SvPctHigh, SvPctMed, and SvPctLow, where the weights correspond to the league-wide percentage of shots from each of those areas. In other words, this is a goalies save percentage if they faced a league average proportion of shots from each of the three shooting zones (high, medium, and low probability of success).
They have designated all shots into three groups: High Danger, Medium Danger, and Low Danger.

High Danger is the high and low slot, Medium Danger is the rest of the "home plate" area in front of the net that isn't the slot, and Low Danger is everywhere else. For a visualization of these zone please check out the war-on-ice glossary and scroll to the bottom.

I will only use 5v5 ASV% as 5v5 SV% has been shown to be much more repeatable than all situations SV% (includes 4v4, and all man advantage and short handed situations)

HOW I WILL EVALUATE GOALIES IN THIS POST

Comparative ASV%
I like to use a goalie's ASV% to rank him among his peers. Simply comparing raw numbers can lose some of the nuance and not give us an idea of where the goalie stands among his peers.

Comparing ASV% has its disadvantages as well, as small percentage differences can change a goalie's ranking significantly and create the illusion of one goalie being much better than another when there isn't much to give between the two.

What I'm trying to look for is trends in the data.

Is the goalie consistently in the top, middle, bottom? Is he trending up or down? Are his results all over the place like Nuke Laloosh?

Age
I'll also consider age as well since I don't think goalies get better with age, and agree with James Mirtle in that NHL teams should stop spending big on goalies, and that paying older goalies for past performances that they have little chance of re-creating is the biggest cause of overpayment.

Since the number of goalies a player is being ranked against will vary from player to player and year to year, (due to TOI issues) I am using % ranges to grade the goalies.
Example - In order for Raanta to show up in this year's rankings, I had to shrink the TOI down to 650 5v5 min. This expands his class to 60 players. If he ranked 40th that would make him 40/60. Crawford, on the other hand, is in a class of 47 players since I used 1000 5v5 TOI for him. A ranking of 40/47 is different than ranking 40/60 and this needs to be reflected.

TOI considerations
Every year I used 1000 5v5 min as a baseline to qualify as it usually produces a sample of 46-55 goalies which usually covers the all starters and 50%+ of the back ups.

Some of the goalies in this study didn't qualify at 1000 min for some years and I had to expand the sample by dropping the TOI requirement. This will be noted when looking at the goalie.

Years used in the study
I only went back as far as 09/10. This gives us 6 years (at most) to look at a goalie, which is a good sample when you can get it. We are also most concerned with recent performance and going past 6 years doesn't really add any relevant information.


Name AdSv%
1 Tuukka.Rask 93.96
2 Martin.Jones 93.93
3 Carey.Price 93.80
4 Cam.Talbot 93.74
5 Cory.Schneider 93.64
6 Chad.Johnson 93.59
7 Corey.Crawford 93.51
8 Jimmy.Howard 93.47
9 Ben.Bishop 93.47
10 Sergei.Bobrovsky 93.46
11 Henrik.Lundqvist 93.45
12 Craig.Anderson 93.43
13 Jonathan.Bernier 93.43
14 Jonas.Hiller 93.42
15 Steve.Mason 93.32
16 Semyon.Varlamov 93.30
17 Braden.Holtby 93.29
18 Thomas.Greiss 93.28
19 Michael.Hutchinson 93.24
20 Petr.Mrazek 93.08
21 Marc-Andre.Fleury 93.08
22 Kari.Lehtonen 93.08
23 Anton.Khudobin 93.04
24 Jonathan.Quick 93.03
25 Eddie.Lack 93.01
26 Devan.Dubnyk 93.00
27 Frederik.Andersen 92.99
28 Jean-Sebastien.Giguere 92.99
29 Jaroslav.Halak 92.94
30 Alex.Stalock 92.93
31 Roberto.Luongo 92.91
32 Mike.Smith 92.85
33 Jhonas.Enroth 92.84
34 Ryan.Miller 92.84
35 Karri.Ramo 92.81
36 Michal.Neuvirth 92.73
37 Evgeni.Nabokov 92.73
38 James.Reimer 92.72
39 Antti.Niemi 92.71
40 Pekka.Rinne 92.68
41 Brian.Elliott 92.67
42 Ray.Emery 92.63
43 Ondrej.Pavelec 92.38
44 Jake.Allen 92.30
45 Ilya.Bryzgalov 92.23
46 Antti.Raanta 92.23
47 Robin.Lehner 92.06
48 Justin.Peters 92.04
49 Ben.Scrivens 92.03
50 Cam.Ward 91.98
51 Darcy.Kuemper 91.97
52 Reto.Berra 91.97
53 Al.Montoya 91.94
54 Peter.Budaj 91.86
55 Anders.Lindback 91.85
56 Tim.Thomas 91.70
57 Viktor.Fasth 91.64
58 Curtis.McElhinney 91.58
59 Carter.Hutton 91.56
60 Martin.Brodeur 91.52
61 Dan.Ellis 91.44
62 Jonas.Gustavsson 91.42
63 Niklas.Backstrom 91.27
64 Kevin.Poulin 91.23
65 Jacob.Markstrom 90.86

 

[JBM73]

More to the article, but that's the gist of it.

 

[JBM73]

2015 NHL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

 

[JBM73]

Shawn Matthias: Long Term Canuck?

Big, strong C/LW, good skater, good on the PK, has some offensive potential. Works hard, high hockey I.Q. If the Flyers don't intend to continue the experiment of B Schenn as the 3rd line LW, I hope they consider this guy for that spot. Writer suggests 2yrs, $4 mil.

Other than Thomas Greiss as the back-up to Mason, I don't see much else out there that interests me. I expect the Flyers to retain White and Vandevelde.

 

[awaz]

ADJUSTED SAVE PERCENTAGE IS OUR TOOL OF CHOICE
Waronice describes Adjusted Save Percentage as:

AdjustedSvPct: Adjusted save percentage; this adjusts for the fact that some teams give up more high-quality shots, while others give up more low-quality shots. This is the weighted-average of SvPctHigh, SvPctMed, and SvPctLow, where the weights correspond to the league-wide percentage of shots from each of those areas. In other words, this is a goalies save percentage if they faced a league average proportion of shots from each of the three shooting zones (high, medium, and low probability of success).
They have designated all shots into three groups: High Danger, Medium Danger, and Low Danger.

High Danger is the high and low slot, Medium Danger is the rest of the "home plate" area in front of the net that isn't the slot, and Low Danger is everywhere else. For a visualization of these zone please check out the war-on-ice glossary and scroll to the bottom.

I will only use 5v5 ASV% as 5v5 SV% has been shown to be much more repeatable than all situations SV% (includes 4v4, and all man advantage and short handed situations)

HOW I WILL EVALUATE GOALIES IN THIS POST

Comparative ASV%
I like to use a goalie's ASV% to rank him among his peers. Simply comparing raw numbers can lose some of the nuance and not give us an idea of where the goalie stands among his peers.

Comparing ASV% has its disadvantages as well, as small percentage differences can change a goalie's ranking significantly and create the illusion of one goalie being much better than another when there isn't much to give between the two.

What I'm trying to look for is trends in the data.

Is the goalie consistently in the top, middle, bottom? Is he trending up or down? Are his results all over the place like Nuke Laloosh?

Age
I'll also consider age as well since I don't think goalies get better with age, and agree with James Mirtle in that NHL teams should stop spending big on goalies, and that paying older goalies for past performances that they have little chance of re-creating is the biggest cause of overpayment.

Since the number of goalies a player is being ranked against will vary from player to player and year to year, (due to TOI issues) I am using % ranges to grade the goalies.
Example - In order for Raanta to show up in this year's rankings, I had to shrink the TOI down to 650 5v5 min. This expands his class to 60 players. If he ranked 40th that would make him 40/60. Crawford, on the other hand, is in a class of 47 players since I used 1000 5v5 TOI for him. A ranking of 40/47 is different than ranking 40/60 and this needs to be reflected.

TOI considerations
Every year I used 1000 5v5 min as a baseline to qualify as it usually produces a sample of 46-55 goalies which usually covers the all starters and 50%+ of the back ups.

Some of the goalies in this study didn't qualify at 1000 min for some years and I had to expand the sample by dropping the TOI requirement. This will be noted when looking at the goalie.

Years used in the study
I only went back as far as 09/10. This gives us 6 years (at most) to look at a goalie, which is a good sample when you can get it. We are also most concerned with recent performance and going past 6 years doesn't really add any relevant information.


Name AdSv%
1 Tuukka.Rask 93.96
2 Martin.Jones 93.93
3 Carey.Price 93.80
4 Cam.Talbot 93.74
5 Cory.Schneider 93.64
6 Chad.Johnson 93.59
7 Corey.Crawford 93.51
8 Jimmy.Howard 93.47
9 Ben.Bishop 93.47
10 Sergei.Bobrovsky 93.46
11 Henrik.Lundqvist 93.45
12 Craig.Anderson 93.43
13 Jonathan.Bernier 93.43
14 Jonas.Hiller 93.42
15 Steve.Mason 93.32
16 Semyon.Varlamov 93.30
17 Braden.Holtby 93.29
18 Thomas.Greiss 93.28
19 Michael.Hutchinson 93.24
20 Petr.Mrazek 93.08
21 Marc-Andre.Fleury 93.08
22 Kari.Lehtonen 93.08
23 Anton.Khudobin 93.04
24 Jonathan.Quick 93.03
25 Eddie.Lack 93.01
26 Devan.Dubnyk 93.00
27 Frederik.Andersen 92.99
28 Jean-Sebastien.Giguere 92.99
29 Jaroslav.Halak 92.94
30 Alex.Stalock 92.93
31 Roberto.Luongo 92.91
32 Mike.Smith 92.85
33 Jhonas.Enroth 92.84
34 Ryan.Miller 92.84
35 Karri.Ramo 92.81
36 Michal.Neuvirth 92.73
37 Evgeni.Nabokov 92.73
38 James.Reimer 92.72
39 Antti.Niemi 92.71
40 Pekka.Rinne 92.68
41 Brian.Elliott 92.67
42 Ray.Emery 92.63
43 Ondrej.Pavelec 92.38
44 Jake.Allen 92.30
45 Ilya.Bryzgalov 92.23
46 Antti.Raanta 92.23
47 Robin.Lehner 92.06
48 Justin.Peters 92.04
49 Ben.Scrivens 92.03
50 Cam.Ward 91.98
51 Darcy.Kuemper 91.97
52 Reto.Berra 91.97
53 Al.Montoya 91.94
54 Peter.Budaj 91.86
55 Anders.Lindback 91.85
56 Tim.Thomas 91.70
57 Viktor.Fasth 91.64
58 Curtis.McElhinney 91.58
59 Carter.Hutton 91.56
60 Martin.Brodeur 91.52
61 Dan.Ellis 91.44
62 Jonas.Gustavsson 91.42
63 Niklas.Backstrom 91.27
64 Kevin.Poulin 91.23
65 Jacob.Markstrom 90.86

Hm. Two biggest standouts to me are Rinne being as low as he is, and Emery being as high as he is. Very interesting way of looking at goalies though for sure. And I love that pundits are starting to see the light as far as spending on goalies goes. It seems like the actual NHL GM's are the last to get this considering the contracts Rinne and Lundqvist got. I was saying it in 2012

 

[lasgop8]

2015 NHL Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

Anders lee and his 25 goals would be nice

 

[lasgop8]

ADJUSTED SAVE PERCENTAGE IS OUR TOOL OF CHOICE
Waronice describes Adjusted Save Percentage as:

AdjustedSvPct: Adjusted save percentage; this adjusts for the fact that some teams give up more high-quality shots, while others give up more low-quality shots. This is the weighted-average of SvPctHigh, SvPctMed, and SvPctLow, where the weights correspond to the league-wide percentage of shots from each of those areas. In other words, this is a goalies save percentage if they faced a league average proportion of shots from each of the three shooting zones (high, medium, and low probability of success).
They have designated all shots into three groups: High Danger, Medium Danger, and Low Danger.

High Danger is the high and low slot, Medium Danger is the rest of the "home plate" area in front of the net that isn't the slot, and Low Danger is everywhere else. For a visualization of these zone please check out the war-on-ice glossary and scroll to the bottom.

I will only use 5v5 ASV% as 5v5 SV% has been shown to be much more repeatable than all situations SV% (includes 4v4, and all man advantage and short handed situations)

HOW I WILL EVALUATE GOALIES IN THIS POST

Comparative ASV%
I like to use a goalie's ASV% to rank him among his peers. Simply comparing raw numbers can lose some of the nuance and not give us an idea of where the goalie stands among his peers.

Comparing ASV% has its disadvantages as well, as small percentage differences can change a goalie's ranking significantly and create the illusion of one goalie being much better than another when there isn't much to give between the two.

What I'm trying to look for is trends in the data.

Is the goalie consistently in the top, middle, bottom? Is he trending up or down? Are his results all over the place like Nuke Laloosh?

Age
I'll also consider age as well since I don't think goalies get better with age, and agree with James Mirtle in that NHL teams should stop spending big on goalies, and that paying older goalies for past performances that they have little chance of re-creating is the biggest cause of overpayment.

Since the number of goalies a player is being ranked against will vary from player to player and year to year, (due to TOI issues) I am using % ranges to grade the goalies.
Example - In order for Raanta to show up in this year's rankings, I had to shrink the TOI down to 650 5v5 min. This expands his class to 60 players. If he ranked 40th that would make him 40/60. Crawford, on the other hand, is in a class of 47 players since I used 1000 5v5 TOI for him. A ranking of 40/47 is different than ranking 40/60 and this needs to be reflected.

TOI considerations
Every year I used 1000 5v5 min as a baseline to qualify as it usually produces a sample of 46-55 goalies which usually covers the all starters and 50%+ of the back ups.

Some of the goalies in this study didn't qualify at 1000 min for some years and I had to expand the sample by dropping the TOI requirement. This will be noted when looking at the goalie.

Years used in the study
I only went back as far as 09/10. This gives us 6 years (at most) to look at a goalie, which is a good sample when you can get it. We are also most concerned with recent performance and going past 6 years doesn't really add any relevant information.


Name AdSv%
1 Tuukka.Rask 93.96
2 Martin.Jones 93.93
3 Carey.Price 93.80
4 Cam.Talbot 93.74
5 Cory.Schneider 93.64
6 Chad.Johnson 93.59
7 Corey.Crawford 93.51
8 Jimmy.Howard 93.47
9 Ben.Bishop 93.47
10 Sergei.Bobrovsky 93.46
11 Henrik.Lundqvist 93.45
12 Craig.Anderson 93.43
13 Jonathan.Bernier 93.43
14 Jonas.Hiller 93.42
15 Steve.Mason 93.32
16 Semyon.Varlamov 93.30
17 Braden.Holtby 93.29
18 Thomas.Greiss 93.28
19 Michael.Hutchinson 93.24
20 Petr.Mrazek 93.08
21 Marc-Andre.Fleury 93.08
22 Kari.Lehtonen 93.08
23 Anton.Khudobin 93.04
24 Jonathan.Quick 93.03
25 Eddie.Lack 93.01
26 Devan.Dubnyk 93.00
27 Frederik.Andersen 92.99
28 Jean-Sebastien.Giguere 92.99
29 Jaroslav.Halak 92.94
30 Alex.Stalock 92.93
31 Roberto.Luongo 92.91
32 Mike.Smith 92.85
33 Jhonas.Enroth 92.84
34 Ryan.Miller 92.84
35 Karri.Ramo 92.81
36 Michal.Neuvirth 92.73
37 Evgeni.Nabokov 92.73
38 James.Reimer 92.72
39 Antti.Niemi 92.71
40 Pekka.Rinne 92.68
41 Brian.Elliott 92.67
42 Ray.Emery 92.63
43 Ondrej.Pavelec 92.38
44 Jake.Allen 92.30
45 Ilya.Bryzgalov 92.23
46 Antti.Raanta 92.23
47 Robin.Lehner 92.06
48 Justin.Peters 92.04
49 Ben.Scrivens 92.03
50 Cam.Ward 91.98
51 Darcy.Kuemper 91.97
52 Reto.Berra 91.97
53 Al.Montoya 91.94
54 Peter.Budaj 91.86
55 Anders.Lindback 91.85
56 Tim.Thomas 91.70
57 Viktor.Fasth 91.64
58 Curtis.McElhinney 91.58
59 Carter.Hutton 91.56
60 Martin.Brodeur 91.52
61 Dan.Ellis 91.44
62 Jonas.Gustavsson 91.42
63 Niklas.Backstrom 91.27
64 Kevin.Poulin 91.23
65 Jacob.Markstrom 90.86

Holtby being ranked so low and Ben Bishop in the top 10 strikes me as odd.

 

[mall3013]

I wasn't sure where to post this, but I've been thinking about a potential trade partner and fixing part of the problem with a winger. The big issue is that the guy I'm thinking of has a big cap hit, therefore, we have to unload salary. Here me out here boys.
1) Lucic - in his last year of contract.. due 6.5 mil ( It's possible Vinny may retire.. We know a dman or two will be dealt).
2) If Boston and the Flyers made this deal, Crouse will not be the target at 7, and this is what worries me is that they may pick him at 7.
3) I think Lucic wouldn't cost us a high pick and my thinking is that the Bruins will want to get anything possible in return. Maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Ade?
Overall, I'm a huge fan of Lucic and believe he fits the mold of this Flyers team, even with the new regime.
Thoughts?

 

[4thstreet]

after seeing Patrick Maroon in the playoffs,anybody else wondering why we gave up on a big left winger?

 

[mall3013]

after seeing Patrick Maroon in the playoffs,anybody else wondering why we gave up on a big left winger?

He never really had the opportunity to play for the big club at the time. But yeah, it amazes me how these guys who were buried in our farm system show that they can play at the highest level.

 

[JBM73]

Search by player name. Gives a brief scouting report for each player.

The Hockey News: Insight on the NHL and the world of hockey

 

[JBM73]

after seeing Patrick Maroon in the playoffs,anybody else wondering why we gave up on a big left winger?

From an article awaz posted in another thread:

"The only ... Phantoms head coach without experience playing for the Flyers was Greg Gilbert, the former Calgary Flames head coach, who lasted just 93 games with the organization. Gilbert, who coached against Knoblauch the last few seasons in the AHL, was fired by Paul Holmgren four games after prospect Pat Maroon was abruptly dismissed from the team. Maroon, now 27, was a key piece for the Anaheim Ducks in their run to the Western Conference final this spring with 11 points in 16 playoff games."

I believe it was primarily "attitude" issues, although some of that could have resulted from just how bad the Phantoms were at the time.

 

[lasgop8]

Flyers free-agent target: RW Drew Stafford | Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia

 

[awaz]

I really don't see the Flyers doing much of anything in free agency. A backup goalie, that's about it.

They don't have the money and shouldn't be looking for long term guys anyway I don't think.

 

[mall3013]

I really don't see the Flyers doing much of anything in free agency. A backup goalie, that's about it.

They don't have the money and shouldn't be looking for long term guys anyway I don't think.

Agree. I would endorse having Enroth here. He would be a great backup and not expensive.

 

[Cobiemonster]

I really don't see the Flyers doing much of anything in free agency. A backup goalie, that's about it.

They don't have the money and shouldn't be looking for long term guys anyway I don't think.

Agree. I would endorse having Enroth here. He would be a great backup and not expensive.

I agree totally - free agency isn't the place to go especially for a team that needs more depth and needs it from younger players

But I agree on Enroth - that would be a good choice as a backup

 

[flyersfan4706]

Looking ahead the amount of cap space we are about to start saving on defense is unreal.

$10.1 million saved next summer with Schenn, Grossmann, and Medvedev up. $12.4 saved in two years with Pronger, Streit, and Schultz gone. $22.5mil in two years. Thank God the kids are coming. Hopefully MDZ can be saved this summer and be a competent, younger veteran on the backend.

I think Hextall is going to bite the bullet in a year or two and buyout MacDonald.

 

[awaz]

Looking ahead the amount of cap space we are about to start saving on defense is unreal.

$10.1 million saved next summer with Schenn, Grossmann, and Medvedev up. $12.4 saved in two years with Pronger, Streit, and Schultz gone. $22.5mil in two years. Thank God the kids are coming. Hopefully MDZ can be saved this summer and be a competent, younger veteran on the backend.

I think Hextall is going to bite the bullet in a year or two and buyout MacDonald.

The Flyers are in really good shape, no doubt about it. If they can stay patient the next 2 or 3 seasons, draft and develop well, I think we're looking at a perennial cup challenger in the 2017-2022 range.

 

[JBM73]

The Flyers are in really good shape, no doubt about it. If they can stay patient the next 2 or 3 seasons, draft and develop well, I think we're looking at a perennial cup challenger in the 2017-2022 range.

Say patient, yes. I just hope they don't rush the young d-men and ruin them at least in part, like they did Couturier and JVR, Toronto did with Luke Schenn and the Rags with Del Zotto, who all would have benefited from more development time.