2014 Offseason

[saddles]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/55701/rangers-should-consider-trading-belter

We haven't even started the season yet and it's already beginning. I don't think we'll win this division because I think Seattle is very good, but I didn't expect us to win in 2010 either. I'm not ready to start thinking of trading Beltre.

Plan on it? No. Be willing to consider it? Yes, no one is untouchable and if it helps them rebuild the franchise like the Teixeira trade did then by all means do so. That certainly doesn't mean you look to trade him just to be trading him or just to dump salary. I thought they should have considered trading him at the last trade deadline.

If they aren't in contention in July and I don't think they will be then that option should be considered if it will improve the team long term. If some team is desperate to get a quality bat for a year and a half then they may be willing to give us something that will vastly improve our chances in the future. Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.

 

[DT LUNA]

Plan on it? No. Be willing to consider it? Yes, no one is untouchable and if it helps them rebuild the franchise like the Teixeira trade did then by all means do so. That certainly doesn't mean you look to trade him just to be trading him or just to dump salary. I thought they should have considered trading him at the last trade deadline.

If they aren't in contention in July and I don't think they will be then that option should be considered if it will improve the team long term. If some team is desperate to get a quality bat for a year and a half then they may be willing to give us something that will vastly improve our chances in the future. Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.

It would depress the crap out of me seeing Beltre playing for another team.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

Article on Alfaro this ST. And as of right now want Beltre staying. He is the leader of this team.

Alfaro pushing Gallo as Rangers best prospect this spring | The Star Telegram The Star Telegram

 

[RevSader]

Plan on it? No. Be willing to consider it? Yes, no one is untouchable and if it helps them rebuild the franchise like the Teixeira trade did then by all means do so. That certainly doesn't mean you look to trade him just to be trading him or just to dump salary. I thought they should have considered trading him at the last trade deadline.

If they aren't in contention in July and I don't think they will be then that option should be considered if it will improve the team long term. If some team is desperate to get a quality bat for a year and a half then they may be willing to give us something that will vastly improve our chances in the future. Better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.

Anyone screaming "trade Beltre!!! now!!!" should be mindful of the the return. Schoenfield says he's declining so trade him now! If he's declining why trade him? You wouldn't get enough to replace him. How would it help the Rangers in 2016 to trade Beltre for a couple of position players? The short answer is that it wouldn't, so anyone being gung ho for the immediate trade is silly.

A team would have to be really desperate to give up a Wil Myers type player for Beltre. And that's the kind of young player you should be targeting if you are Texas. You don't do what Oakland did and trade for quantity over quality.

 

[saddles]

Anyone screaming "trade Beltre!!! now!!!" should be mindful of the the return. Schoenfield says he's declining so trade him now! If he's declining why trade him? You wouldn't get enough to replace him. How would it help the Rangers in 2016 to trade Beltre for a couple of position players? The short answer is that it wouldn't, so anyone being gung ho for the immediate trade is silly.

A team would have to be really desperate to give up a Wil Myers type player for Beltre. And that's the kind of young player you should be targeting if you are Texas. You don't do what Oakland did and trade for quantity over quality.

Even if Beltre is declining he was at such a high level to begin with that he could still be valuable to some teams while in decline. In other words a declining Beltre is still a much better option than many other options. It would take a team with at least 2 or 3 high quality prospects that is in contention and that has a hole at 3B due to injury or just bad play by their third baseman. If another team had prospects similar in talent to Chi Chi, Gallo and Alfaro and offered me a couple of them I would have to strongly consider it.

 

[Windingmywatch]

But they really probably aren't a .500 team without Darvish. I don't think that makes them a 60 win team, but 75-78 is my guess. I don't think that is too bearish either.

Schoenfield goes off the reservation when he acts like Beltre hitting 19 homers was all physical decline. Sure some of it is age because his ISO and SLG are trending downward, but the guy wasn't getting anything to hit last season. Beltre had his highest walk rate since 2000 last season and put up his third best wRC+. That and he seems to think Gallo is going to play third base in the majors, when defensively he's just not suited for it in the bigs. I don't get why Schoenfield has a job. He never seems to be right season to season.

ESPN makes it a point of keeping people who know very little around. I could list them all, but it would take all day.

"they really probably aren't a .500 team without Darvish"

I don't agree. If you project high end a Darvish 2015 WAR of 5.8 equal to 2013 he then averages a 4.7 WAR. Round that to five wins above replacement. So TEX needs to find five wins. You may not like WAR ... but anything else is going to be in the same relationship.

Gallardo is a career per season 2.0 WAR and Holland is a 1.5 WAR. Gallardo in a new league could be a 3.0 (that's 1 win) and Holland got is 1.5 last year in very short work so he could easly be a 3.0 too. That would be another 1.5 wins. Between those 2 SPs ... they can potentialy cover half of the win deficit.

Losing Darvish is a drag ... but it isn't the end ofthe world.

The 'sky is falling' media hypesters are just wanting to get clicks to raise advertising ... especially ESPN. It is business. They promote bad news just like TV and newspapers. They don't make money if they say everything is great.

John Heyman should be ashamed. No way is TEX interested in Hamels. If TEX were a stuffed 40man already announced as AL Champs ... then I might consider making a trade for the right SP ... but that may or may not include Hamels. It isn't like he's the only SP available WERE TEX to go look. Otherwise ... I'm good with what they have in their system now.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

No way is TEX interested in Hamels...

I'm completely playing devil's advocate here... if Cliff Lee is out for the year (as has been discussed thanks to his elbow still bothering him), does that affect the price of Hamels?

 

[saddles]

"they really probably aren't a .500 team without Darvish"

I don't agree. If you project high end a Darvish 2015 WAR of 5.8 equal to 2013 he then averages a 4.7 WAR. Round that to five wins above replacement. So TEX needs to find five wins. You may not like WAR ... but anything else is going to be in the same relationship.

Gallardo is a career per season 2.0 WAR and Holland is a 1.5 WAR. Gallardo in a new league could be a 3.0 (that's 1 win) and Holland got is 1.5 last year in very short work so he could easly be a 3.0 too. That would be another 1.5 wins. Between those 2 SPs ... they can potentialy cover half of the win deficit.

Losing Darvish is a drag ... but it isn't the end ofthe world.

The 'sky is falling' media hypesters are just wanting to get clicks to raise advertising ... especially ESPN. It is business. They promote bad news just like TV and newspapers. They don't make money if they say everything is great.

John Heyman should be ashamed. No way is TEX interested in Hamels. If TEX were a stuffed 40man already announced as AL Champs ... then I might consider making a trade for the right SP ... but that may or may not include Hamels. It isn't like he's the only SP available WERE TEX to go look. Otherwise ... I'm good with what they have in their system now.

I don't see them being a better than an 79-82 win team myself. One reason is because Darvish won't be the only injury to befall the team. Chances are great that they won't have nearly as many injuries as last year, but chances are also great that they will have one or two more significant injuries to key players along the way. They may not be as long term as the injury to Darvish, but significant nonetheless.

 

[saddles]

I'm completely playing devil's advocate here... if Cliff Lee is out for the year (as has been discussed thanks to his elbow still bothering him), does that affect the price of Hamels?

If I had to guess I would say no.

 

[RevSader]

"they really probably aren't a .500 team without Darvish"

I don't agree. If you project high end a Darvish 2015 WAR of 5.8 equal to 2013 he then averages a 4.7 WAR. Round that to five wins above replacement. So TEX needs to find five wins. You may not like WAR ... but anything else is going to be in the same relationship.

Gallardo is a career per season 2.0 WAR and Holland is a 1.5 WAR. Gallardo in a new league could be a 3.0 (that's 1 win) and Holland got is 1.5 last year in very short work so he could easly be a 3.0 too. That would be another 1.5 wins. Between those 2 SPs ... they can potentialy cover half of the win deficit.

Losing Darvish is a drag ... but it isn't the end ofthe world.

The 'sky is falling' media hypesters are just wanting to get clicks to raise advertising ... especially ESPN. It is business. They promote bad news just like TV and newspapers. They don't make money if they say everything is great.

John Heyman should be ashamed. No way is TEX interested in Hamels. If TEX were a stuffed 40man already announced as AL Champs ... then I might consider making a trade for the right SP ... but that may or may not include Hamels. It isn't like he's the only SP available WERE TEX to go look. Otherwise ... I'm good with what they have in their system now.

Too much of that is predicated on one of the Nicks pitching better than they have shown they are capable and Detwiler pitching well. 85 was their ceiling with Darvish. If they traded for Hamels it would be about the same. They were going to be hoping for a WC spot at best. Now that's just not logical. They won't be replacing Darvish's with Gallardo and Holland stepping up. Just not enough there. They would also need Lewis to pitch like he did in 2010 for that to even be possible.

The only chance at replacing Darvish is a healthy Hamels, and that isn't worth it because it doesn't guarantee a playoff spot and they lose future players for a very expensive Hamels.

I really don't see how they can win much more than 78 games with out a real number one starter.

 

[RevSader]

Even if Beltre is declining he was at such a high level to begin with that he could still be valuable to some teams while in decline. In other words a declining Beltre is still a much better option than many other options. It would take a team with at least 2 or 3 high quality prospects that is in contention and that has a hole at 3B due to injury or just bad play by their third baseman. If another team had prospects similar in talent to Chi Chi, Gallo and Alfaro and offered me a couple of them I would have to strongly consider it.

Hey, I would consider that too, but is anyone really going to give that up for a dude his age? I love Beltre, but I think we are over valuing him here.

 

[saddles]

Hey, I would consider that too, but is anyone really going to give that up for a dude his age? I love Beltre, but I think we are over valuing him here.

Well, we got Thompson for Soria so anything is possible when teams are desperate.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

FYI everyone, the game is being shown late at 10:00 tonight on MLB Network.

It's also on TX21 live, according to the Rangers.

 

[True Rangers Fan]

Banister gives Texas Rangers a peaceful morning | Dallas Morning News

 

[romeo212000]

Remember, our 2010 opening day rotation was weaker than our current one IMO.

 

[DT LUNA]

It's also on TX21 live, according to the Rangers.

Game time 3:00 TX21

 

[RevSader]

Remember, our 2010 opening day rotation was weaker than our current one IMO.

I think I would take 2010 Wilson and Lewis over 2015 Holland and Gallardo. I really like 2015 Holland, but he's only one guy.

Also this is said 5 years later, so it's not a fair comparison. If I was just judging the 1-2 combo based on their histories I would have to feel better about Holland an Gallardo, because what Lewis and Wilson did was completely unexpected.

 

[romeo212000]

I think I would take 2010 Wilson and Lewis over 2015 Holland and Gallardo. I really like 2015 Holland, but he's only one guy.

2015 Holland > 2010 Wilson, Gallardo = 2010 Lewis. It's the guys after that you have to consider.

2010/2015
Feldman/Holland
Harden/Gallardo
Wilson/Detweiler
Lewis/Lewis
Harrison/????

The bolded are the better pitchers of the two when doing a straight line comparison. Our 1-2 this year should be better than 2010, even without Darvish.

There are only two that are for certain better in 2010, and only one I'd say there will be a significant difference. Wilson in 2010 should certainly be better than Detweiler this year, though I think Detweiler does fine. There's every reason to believe 2010 Lewis should be better than 2015, but it's still Colby and he may come closer to matching his old self than you think. Remember 2010 Harrison really wasn't that good. We were still wondering whether he was gonna get it figured out. Much like we are with multiple guys currently looking to fill that last rotation spot. So, while I feel it's only a slight edge, I still say our opening day rotation this year is stronger than 2010.

 

[Windingmywatch]

I'm completely playing devil's advocate here... if Cliff Lee is out for the year (as has been discussed thanks to his elbow still bothering him), does that affect the price of Hamels?

You mean the $96 milliion for a 31yo NL pitcher and the 3 high ML ready prospects could be higher?

Mark my words ... he will flame out wherever he goes.

 

[RevSader]

2015 Holland > 2010 Wilson, Gallardo = 2010 Lewis. It's the guys after that you have to consider.

2010/2015
Feldman/Holland
Harden/Gallardo
Wilson/Detweiler
Lewis/Lewis
Harrison/????

The bolded are the better pitchers of the two when doing a straight line comparison. Our 1-2 this year should be better than 2010, even without Darvish.

There are only two that are for certain better in 2010, and only one I'd say there will be a significant difference. Wilson in 2010 should certainly be better than Detweiler this year, though I think Detweiler does fine. There's every reason to believe 2010 Lewis should be better than 2015, but it's still Colby and he may come closer to matching his old self than you think. Remember 2010 Harrison really wasn't that good. We were still wondering whether he was gonna get it figured out. Much like we are with multiple guys currently looking to fill that last rotation spot. So, while I feel it's only a slight edge, I still say our opening day rotation this year is stronger than 2010.

Fuck Scott Feldman and Rich Harden both...I still am not happy with either of those guys being such an integral part of the 2010 rotation.

Hunter ended up replacing Harrison anyway in 2010, but yeah that 5th start spot is really irrelevant to me this year now that everyone else moves up a spot.