Elite Recruiting Classes = Natty On a Platter

[Brasky]

Let's look at the National champs from 2004 to present and their respective recruiting classes that comprised those championship teams using rivals rankings. Rivals began ranking classes in 2002. I'll even add Nebraska's avg class ranking and where they finished in the AP poll through the same years for comparison.

2004 National Champ: USC
Class rankings:
-'02 - 13th
-'03 - 3rd
-'04 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 5.6 Nebraska's avg: 36.6 AP finish: NR

2005 National Champ: Texas
Class rankings:
-'02 - 1st
-'03 - 15th
-'04 - 10th
-'05 - 20th
Avg Class Ranking: 11.5 Nebraska's avg: 28.5 AP finish: #24


2006 National Champ: Florida
Class Rankings:
-'02 - 20th
-'03 - 2nd
-'04 - 7th
'-05 - 15th
-'06 - 2nd
Avg Class Ranking: 9.2 Nebraska's Avg: 26.8 AP finish: #24


2007 National Champ: LSU
Class Rankings:
-'03 - 1st
-'04 - 2nd
-'05 - 22nd
-'06 - 7th
-'07 - 4th
Avg Class Ranking: 7.2 Nebraska's Avg: 21.4 AP finish: NR


2008 National Champ: Florida
Class Rankings:
-'04 - 7th
-'05 - 15th
-'06 - 2nd
-'07 - 1st
-'08 - 3rd
Avg Class Ranking: 5.6 Nebraska's Avg: 19 AP finish: NR


2009 National Champ: Alabama
Class Rankings:
-'05 - 18th
-'06 - 11th
-'07 - 10th
-'08 - 1st
-'09 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 8.2 Nebraska's Avg: 19.2 AP finish: #14


2010 National Champ: Auburn
Class Rankings:
-'06 - 10th
-'07 - 7th
-'08 - 20th
-'09 - 19th
-'10 - 4th (including Cam Newton)
Avg Class Ranking: 8.4 Nebraska's Avg: 22.6 AP finish: #20


2011 National Champ: Alabama
Class Rankings:
-'07 - 10th
-'08 - 1st
-'09 - 1st
-'10 - 5th
-'11 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 3.6 Nebraska's Avg: 21.6 AP finish: #24

2012 National Champ: Alabama
Class Rankings:
-'08 - 1st
-'09 - 1st
-'10 - 5th
-'11 - 1st
-'12 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 1.6 Nebraska's Avg: 24.0 AP finish: #25


The average ranking of the classes that made up these National Championship teams is 6.7

Nebraska's avg through these years is 24.4


So while it's true that great recruiting classes don't guarantee you National titles, they do guarantee you a chance at one. Conversely in the last 8 years, a 5 year recruiting class average anywhere over 11.5 in the country (according to rivals) has guaranteed you WON'T win a national title. So while it's all well and good that Wisconsin and Oregon "competed" for national titles, the fact is that they didn't win one and the teams with elite classes did.

Finally, Alabama will presumably once again finish as Rivals number one rated class. This will make their 2009-2013 Average class ranking once 1.6 for the second time in a row. Nebraska will presumably finish as rivals #17 rated class making their 2009-2013 average class ranking a slightly improved 21.4

I don't pretend that this is some absolute rule of thumb, but I do find it shocking how accurate their projections have been over the years.

If you feel like it, go back and hash out the averages for your favorite college football team using rivals so we can compare and see how accurate your team rankings were in relation to where they finished in the AP poll.

 

[OregonDucks]

I Just heard today that based on recruiting class averages, Clemson has a real good shot of at least making it into the NCG this year or next.

 

[bamabear82]

Let's look at the National champs from 2004 to present and their respective recruiting classes that comprised those championship teams using rivals rankings. Rivals began ranking classes in 2002. I'll even add Nebraska's avg class ranking and where they finished in the AP poll through the same years for comparison.

2004 National Champ: USC
Class rankings:
-'02 - 13th
-'03 - 3rd
-'04 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 5.6 Nebraska's avg: 36.6 AP finish: NR

2005 National Champ: Texas
Class rankings:
-'02 - 1st
-'03 - 15th
-'04 - 10th
-'05 - 20th
Avg Class Ranking: 11.5 Nebraska's avg: 28.5 AP finish: #24


2006 National Champ: Florida
Class Rankings:
-'02 - 20th
-'03 - 2nd
-'04 - 7th
'-05 - 15th
-'06 - 2nd
Avg Class Ranking: 9.2 Nebraska's Avg: 26.8 AP finish: #24


2007 National Champ: LSU
Class Rankings:
-'03 - 1st
-'04 - 2nd
-'05 - 22nd
-'06 - 7th
-'07 - 4th
Avg Class Ranking: 7.2 Nebraska's Avg: 21.4 AP finish: NR


2008 National Champ: Florida
Class Rankings:
-'04 - 7th
-'05 - 15th
-'06 - 2nd
-'07 - 1st
-'08 - 3rd
Avg Class Ranking: 5.6 Nebraska's Avg: 19 AP finish: NR


2009 National Champ: Alabama
Class Rankings:
-'05 - 18th
-'06 - 11th
-'07 - 10th
-'08 - 1st
-'09 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 8.2 Nebraska's Avg: 19.2 AP finish: #14


2010 National Champ: Auburn
Class Rankings:
-'06 - 10th
-'07 - 7th
-'08 - 20th
-'09 - 19th
-'10 - 4th (including Cam Newton)
Avg Class Ranking: 8.4 Nebraska's Avg: 22.6 AP finish: #20


2011 National Champ: Alabama
Class Rankings:
-'07 - 10th
-'08 - 1st
-'09 - 1st
-'10 - 5th
-'11 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 3.6 Nebraska's Avg: 21.6 AP finish: #24

2012 National Champ: Alabama
Class Rankings:
-'08 - 1st
-'09 - 1st
-'10 - 5th
-'11 - 1st
-'12 - 1st
Avg Class Ranking: 1.6 Nebraska's Avg: 24.0 AP finish: #25


The average ranking of the classes that made up these National Championship teams is 6.7

Nebraska's avg through these years is 24.4


So while it's true that great recruiting classes don't guarantee you National titles, they do guarantee you a chance at one. Conversely in the last 8 years, a 5 year recruiting class average anywhere over 11.5 in the country (according to rivals) has guaranteed you WON'T win a national title. So while it's all well and good that Wisconsin and Oregon "competed" for national titles, the fact is that they didn't win one and the teams with elite classes did.

Finally, Alabama will presumably once again finish as Rivals number one rated class. This will make their 2009-2013 Average class ranking once 1.6 for the second time in a row. Nebraska will presumably finish as rivals #17 rated class making their 2009-2013 average class ranking a slightly improved 21.4

I don't pretend that this is some absolute rule of thumb, but I do find it shocking how accurate their projections have been over the years.

If you feel like it, go back and hash out the averages for your favorite college football team using rivals so we can compare and see how accurate your team rankings were in relation to where they finished in the AP poll.

I typically try not to put too much into where teams (top 15-20 anyway) finish in recruiting but that is pretty interesting.

 

[Brasky]

I Just heard today that based on recruiting class averages, Clemson has a real good shot of at least making it into the NCG this year or next.

Their 5 year class avg ranking from 2009-2013 per rivals is 18.4. Statistically speaking using the above numbers, they have little-to-no chance of winning a national title.

The highest class average for a national title winning team was the 2005 Texas team with 11.5, Though there are only 4 recorded classes for them. The e lowest rated class average after that is 2008 florida with a 9.2 5 year class average.

I'm not saying this is my personal opinion or that these stats are gospel, but they are an extremely accurate indicator.

Clemson winning a title this season would be a major exception to the rule.

 

[iruletheskool]

I got 12.4 for Auburns average m8

 

[Brasky]

I got 12.4 for Auburns average m8

From 2009-2013?

That's close.

It's not hard to poke holes in this, but it's still fun to look at.

Before McCarron won his titles I would have said you need an elite QB to win it all...

McElroy wasn't much to look at either but he is still holding clipboards in the NFL so...

 

[bamabear82]

From 2009-2013?

That's close.

It's not hard to poke holes in this, but it's still fun to look at.

Before McCarron won his titles I would have said you need an elite QB to win it all...

Efficient QB, good run game and good D is all it takes. Not sure why people think it's so hard.

 

[Brasky]

I'd like to know the stats on 1st year coaches winning national titles. Urban would have had a shot at one.

Larry Coker won a title in his 1st year at Miami, but if you would have had a 5 year class average for that team I bet it would be in the neighborhood of 1-3

Auburn does not have Miami 2001 type talent. I don't see Gus competing for a title this year.

 

[bamabear82]

I'd like to know the stats on 1st year coaches winning national titles. Urban would have had a shot at one.

Larry Coker won a title in his 1st year at Miami, but if you would have had a 5 year class average for that team I bet it would be in the neighborhood of 1-3

Auburn does not have Miami 2001 type talent. I don't see Gus competing for a title this year.

Nope.

 

[Brasky]

Efficient QB, good run game and good D is all it takes. Not sure why people think it's so hard.

And a class average ranking of 8.2 or above.

The '09 team was by far the least talented of the three title winners.

1.6 class avg last year. Guess what your 5 year class avg is for this season? 1.6.

Y'all have no excuse not to win another title.

 

[bamabear82]

And a class average ranking of 8.2 or above.

The '09 team was by far the least talented of the three title winners.

1.6 class avg last year. Guess what your 5 year class avg is for this season? 1.6.

Y'all have no excuse not to win another title.

Shouldn't be a problem. :bored:

 

[Camfantasy]

All Bama needs is a QB who doesn't throw interceptions. It's just how their system is set up. They can be middle of the pack in every QB category but 1 and be successful.....interceptions. That's one reason Phil Simms isn't there anymore and the main reason Mccaron started over him to begin with.

 

[bamabear82]

All Bama needs is a QB who doesn't throw interceptions. It's just how their system is set up. They can be middle of the pack in every QB category but 1 and be successful.....interceptions. That's one reason Phil Simms isn't there anymore and the main reason Mccaron started over him to begin with.

This is true. I am interested to see what kind of numbers McCarron puts up next season with the WRs we have now though. I just hope he doesn't feel like he has to do too much to improve his draft stock that he makes mistakes.

 

[Camfantasy]

This is true. I am interested to see what kind of numbers McCarron puts up next season with the WRs we have now though. I just hope he doesn't feel like he has to do too much to improve his draft stock that he makes mistakes.

I mean they should have the WRs to stretch the field more than in the past...but can Mccaron deliver? Do they even want to chance it in trying? I see a lot of bubble screens and quick slants in Bama's future. Maybe some more spread formations to get WRs in space, but in the 10 - 20 yd range, instead of deep. I'm just not sold on Mccaron's arm downfield. Just isn't his strong point.(And from what I have seen of Bateman. That isn't his either.)

 

[Brasky]

With bama it's going to be deep play action passes where those elite recievers have one man to beat and the QB's got a shitload of room for error. Also dump offs to the TE and the RB.

The run always sets up the pass in that offense.

That's provided that the O-Line doesn't shit down its leg. I've heard that last year most people who seriously followed Alabama football thought the O-Line was actually pretty fuckin shitty. Judging from the running back production, I have to think those are just spoiled Bama fans who don't know their ass from a hole in the ground.

 

[bamabear82]

I mean they should have the WRs to stretch the field more than in the past...but can Mccaron deliver? Do they even want to chance it in trying? I see a lot of bubble screens and quick slants in Bama's future. Maybe some more spread formations to get WRs in space, but in the 10 - 20 yd range, instead of deep. I'm just not sold on Mccaron's arm downfield. Just isn't his strong point.(And from what I have seen of Bateman. That isn't his either.)

McCarron has a pretty strong arm. The play action deep ball to Bell and Cooper was a big part of the offense this season and a big reason Cooper hit 1000 yds. We did alot of the shorter stuff too though, got several guys who are really good getting yds after the catch.

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

If any team can come back from an 0-1 start it is Alabama. They are very resilient.

 

[bamabear82]

With bama it's going to be deep play action passes where those elite recievers have one man to beat and the QB's got a shitload of room for error. Also dump offs to the TE and the RB.

The run always sets up the pass in that offense.

That's provided that the O-Line doesn't shit down its leg. I've heard that last year most people who seriously followed Alabama football thought the O-Line was actually pretty fuckin shitty. Judging from the running back production, I have to think those are just spoiled Bama fans who don't know their ass from a hole in the ground.

The Oline could've been better at pass protection at times (seemed like a mid season slump) but their run blocking was outstanding pretty much all season.

 

[bamabear82]

If any team can come back from an 0-1 start it is Alabama. They are very resilient.

 

[Brasky]

If any team can come back from an 0-1 start it is Alabama. They are very resilient.

I also chuckled, but I will be rooting for Michigan 2.0