Draft 2021

[Ricky Roma]

Bold move no doubt. i get the reasons for it and it makes perfect sense IF the QB pans out. But pans out means "tier 1" NFL QB, not average or even above average. JG is above average and you'd still have that draft capital. My initial reaction is not liking this all the eggs in one basket move.

Anyway, whats done is done and I'll hope this QB pans out, vice pan the trade. They can only go by college game stats and measurables, can't be as sure on intangibles. I tend to think you go with the QB who's "proven" against tougher competition and bowl games. I'd be a little concerned if Trey Lance is the pick?

That said, MAYBE they see him as more 'moldable'?

Lance is by far the most likely to bust. Having said that, he can also be the best QB of this bunch, as his talent is insane. He'd be the one I'd 'worry' the most about, but he's not last in regards to whom I'd take - that would be Jones.

 

[poewelch84]

Trade him before this season? As a fan, i hope they keep JG as the starter this season. This team is capable of going all the way, and a seasoned JG is better than a rookie QB. The rookie QB will eventually be good, but we shouldn't assume this season. But this is only a fan talking, if i'm JG not sure i'd want to stick for ONLY 1 more year?

JG doesn't have much trade value right now, i'd say a 3rd rounder?

IF JG lights it up this season his value goes up but then won't we keep him ourselves? If he has an "average" season, he won't gain much in a trade? Other teams know we'll cut him to gain cap space.

If you drafted a QB early you are going to him eventually regardless of how Jimmy plays this season. They don't have to trade him until after the year, but even if all you get is third rounder its still regaining some draft capital.

 

[Kinzu]

If this is between Lance or Fields I see more on film that I think Shanahan will like in Lance. Lance can work under center and work the play action while also be a lethal threat to run. Maybe Fields is a bit more talented and for sure has played at a higher level, but Fields I believe mostly played out of Spread Formations. We all know Kyle wants a QB that can excel at Play Action.

Or maybe Zach Wilson is the guy and we have inside knowledge the Jets are sticking with Darnold and drafting him some help.

No matter who we take though I still believe Jimmy should stay on the team and should be the starter Week 1. Let the rookie sit and learn because regardless of who you take you're looking at a young QB with very few college games under their belt. Hopefully the competition brings out the best in Jimmy like it did Brees back when the Chargers took Philip Rivers. Then you can trade Jimmy and his extremely friendly contract next season to recoup some draft capital.

I see zero reasons at this point we should plan on starting a rookie QB Week 1 when the rest of the team is Super Bowl ready. The only reason would be if someone decided to offer up a 1st Rounder for Jimmy this year.

 

[Ricky Roma]

If this is between Lance or Fields I see more on film that I think Shanahan will like in Lance. Lance can work under center and work the play action while also be a lethal threat to run. Maybe Fields is a bit more talented and for sure has played at a higher level, but Fields I believe mostly played out of Spread Formations. We all know Kyle wants a QB that can excel at Play Action.

Or maybe Zach Wilson is the guy and we have inside knowledge the Jets are sticking with Darnold and drafting him some help.

No matter who we take though I still believe Jimmy should stay on the team and should be the starter Week 1. Let the rookie sit and learn because regardless of who you take you're looking at a young QB with very few college games under their belt. Hopefully the competition brings out the best in Jimmy like it did Brees back when the Chargers took Philip Rivers. Then you can trade Jimmy and his extremely friendly contract next season to recoup some draft capital.

I see zero reasons at this point we should plan on starting a rookie QB Week 1 when the rest of the team is Super Bowl ready. The only reason would be if someone decided to offer up a 1st Rounder for Jimmy this year.

Apparently, the Jets aren't listening to trade offers for their #2. That probably means they are taking a QB, because if they were really interested in getting Darnold help, this is the draft to trade out and get a haul. Who knows if that'll be the case in a month though.

Originally I thought SF might've traded up believeing that they had equal grades on the two guys (Lawrence is probably going through a Jax playbook as I type this) that would be available at #3. I'm starting to think that, knowing the Jax pick, and being close to Saleh with the Jets, that they believe their guy will be there, and they made a move to prevent anyone else from getting him.

 

[deep9er]

They probably do prefer Wilson.....the Jets hold those cards. Of course, Saleh and Shanahan are still tight, so there's a good chance SF knows who the first two picks are anyways. Apparently, SF didn't even bother making a proposal deal with NY which tells me they are definitely taking a QB at two. Knowing this, ShanaLynch still made the move up to three.

Pretty sure they already know the name on the card.

IF the Jets don't intend to take a QB, they should trade down. Similar to the Dolphins, you're better off gaining a lot of draft capital vice an LT or WR. So being they're staying put, they will take a QB themselves.

 

[deep9er]

Lance is by far the most likely to bust. Having said that, he can also be the best QB of this bunch, as his talent is insane. He'd be the one I'd 'worry' the most about, but he's not last in regards to whom I'd take - that would be Jones.

Jones doesn't fit the mold of today's NFL QB, but having a QB that progresses FAST and is deadly accurate, will work. Shannahan's style is run first, but his passing game leans more on RAC's. If the QB gets the ball out on time, and accurately, the RACs pile up. The next thing i'd want to know is his performance in the red zone?

Most QB's can do will between the 20's, but the red zone requires another gear. JG doesn't have that extra gear.

 

[deep9er]

If you drafted a QB early you are going to him eventually regardless of how Jimmy plays this season. They don't have to trade him until after the year, but even if all you get is third rounder its still regaining some draft capital.

JG is seasoned in THIS offense and has great chemistry with teammates He could easily do well right thru the season including play-offs. In this scenario, you wouldn't start the rookie just because he cost so much?

IF JG performs poorly 2 or 3 games in a row, or if he's injured, then the rookie gets his chance. But then our offense will lean more run simple passes.

There is a lot to learn and game reps to experiece, i'd prefer keeping him out this season if possible? More so if Lance is the pick.

 

[deep9er]

Apparently, the Jets aren't listening to trade offers for their #2. That probably means they are taking a QB, because if they were really interested in getting Darnold help, this is the draft to trade out and get a haul. Who knows if that'll be the case in a month though.

Originally I thought SF might've traded up believeing that they had equal grades on the two guys (Lawrence is probably going through a Jax playbook as I type this) that would be available at #3. I'm starting to think that, knowing the Jax pick, and being close to Saleh with the Jets, that they believe their guy will be there, and they made a move to prevent anyone else from getting him.

Agree on the Jets trading down if not drafting a QB.

While Saleh might still be good friends, he's now a competitor. So similar to "once you get on the field of play", Saleh should NOT help the 49ers with info. He shouldn't help the 49ers regarding this draft, cause you never know how that 'help' goes around and ends up hurting you. I don't blame Saleh one bit if he remained silent.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Some big picture thoughts about why the trade happened and if they were ever going to move up to grab a QB, this was the year to do it.

--Top 10 QBs
The top 10 is where SB-level Qbs are found the overwhelming majority of the time. That is what the stats say.

--QB-needy Teams
This year, the best QBs wouldn't be falling to us at 12 and honestly, the best 4 or even 5 are likely to be gone before pick 9. So if we want a QB this year, we'd have to move up to get him.

--Draft Position, 12
This year's draft position is the best draft position the Niners should expect to have had for the next few years. Think about it--despite covid, no real TC, players opting out, and a rash of injuries to all our best players unlike anything i've ever seen before, we still won 6 games and could've easily won 2 other games. And with this being the worst season we've had since Shanny's early days, and expecting quite a boost from healthy starters, the 2 future #1s are expected to be in the late teens or early 20's. So, moving up would likely cost us more if we waited another year or 2.

--Job Security
Shanny just got an extension that puts him under contract extension through 2025. So he and Lynch have lots of job security that could help them get through a shaky year or so while a young QB gets his legs under him. Shanny is the first HC to get an extension in the York era (let that sink in...) so barring a murder spree, Kyle isn't going to be sent packing until late in 2023 at the earliest.

--Top 3
We all know Lawrence is going 1 and I'm sure Shanny and the FO know which QB the Jets are going with at 2--it's almost certainly Wilson. It says a lot that the Niners didn't even try to trade up to the Jets spot, so they are taking a QB. This tells us that either Shanny knows who the Jets are taking and likes/wants the best of Lance, Fields, Jones or that he isn't certain who the Jets are taking and he likes/wants Wilson.

Overall, I have to admit that I've never been more "What the hell is going to happen?" with a Niner draft pick like I am with this one.

 

[poewelch84]

Some big picture thoughts about why the trade happened and if they were ever going to move up to grab a QB, this was the year to do it.

--Top 10 QBs
The top 10 is where SB-level Qbs are found the overwhelming majority of the time. That is what the stats say.

--QB-needy Teams
This year, the best QBs wouldn't be falling to us at 12 and honestly, the best 4 or even 5 are likely to be gone before pick 9. So if we want a QB this year, we'd have to move up to get him.

--Draft Position, 12
This year's draft position is the best draft position the Niners should expect to have had for the next few years. Think about it--despite covid, no real TC, players opting out, and a rash of injuries to all our best players unlike anything i've ever seen before, we still won 6 games and could've easily won 2 other games. And with this being the worst season we've had since Shanny's early days, and expecting quite a boost from healthy starters, the 2 future #1s are expected to be in the late teens or early 20's. So, moving up would likely cost us more if we waited another year or 2.

--Job Security
Shanny just got an extension that puts him under contract extension through 2025. So he and Lynch have lots of job security that could help them get through a shaky year or so while a young QB gets his legs under him. Shanny is the first HC to get an extension in the York era (let that sink in...) so barring a murder spree, Kyle isn't going to be sent packing until late in 2023 at the earliest.

--Top 3
We all know Lawrence is going 1 and I'm sure Shanny and the FO know which QB the Jets are going with at 2--it's almost certainly Wilson. It says a lot that the Niners didn't even try to trade up to the Jets spot, so they are taking a QB. This tells us that either Shanny knows who the Jets are taking and likes/wants the best of Lance, Fields, Jones or that he isn't certain who the Jets are taking and he likes/wants Wilson.

Overall, I have to admit that I've never been more "What the hell is going to happen?" with a Niner draft pick like I am with this one.

The only real what the hell is going to happen is which of the three remaining QB's are they going to take.

 

[deep9er]

If you drafted a QB early you are going to him eventually regardless of how Jimmy plays this season. They don't have to trade him until after the year, but even if all you get is third rounder its still regaining some draft capital.

Your earlier post seemed to read the rookie would start sometime THIS season? I wasn't really sure and is why i asked to clarify? What does "eventually go to him" mean, this season? Assuming JG isn't injured, go and start the rookie THIS season?

 

[deep9er]

The only real what the hell is going to happen is which of the three remaining QB's are they going to take.

This will all depend on how the drafted QB performs from this season onward? IF he performs WELL, then all of this makes perfect sense. If he doesn't, we'll be in bad shape for some time.

Whether they draft Wilson, Fields, Lance, or Jones, it'll depend on how well he performs?

 

[poewelch84]

Your earlier post seemed to read the rookie would start sometime THIS season? I wasn't really sure and is why i asked to clarify? What does "eventually go to him" mean, this season? Assuming JG isn't injured, go and start the rookie THIS season?

I would say no not this year unless Jimmy gets hurt. I do think they go to him next season and they trade Jimmy unless the likely comp pick is greater than what they can get in trade.

 

[poewelch84]

This will all depend on how the drafted QB performs from this season onward? IF he performs WELL, then all of this makes perfect sense. If he doesn't, we'll be in bad shape for some time.

Whether they draft Wilson, Fields, Lance, or Jones, it'll depend on how well he performs?

Sure but the way it was posted was more of what the hell are they going to do in the draft which to me is pretty damn obvious. It just a matter of which QB is available.

 

[deep9er]

I would say no not this year unless Jimmy gets hurt. I do think they go to him next season and they trade Jimmy unless the likely comp pick is greater than what they can get in trade.

Ok, thats what i thought you meant.

Anyway, for me not so sure we trade away JG next season? Yes TODAY it may look obvious due to the draft capital spent on this rookie, plus JG's cap hit. However, what if the rookie is more like a 'bust' than a starting QB even after one year? What if JG plays like an All-Pro and we win the SB?

 

[deep9er]

Sure but the way it was posted was more of what the hell are they going to do in the draft which to me is pretty damn obvious. It just a matter of which QB is available.

Oh yes, there is no doubt we're going to draft a QB.

I can't see the Jets staying at #2 if they're not drafting a QB? If they decide to stick with Darnold, they'll trade down.

 

[deep9er]

https://www.************.com/commentary/2592-my-case-for-justin-fields/

The more articles/opinions i read, the more i think Justin Fields in the pick, even if Zach Wilson is on the board. Accurate to all levels of the field, played against top competition including bowl games, and performed at a high level for two seasons. What more can we ask for because there is no perfect QB prospect. We focus too much on the negatives or perceived negatives. For me, he is like Deshaun Watson coming out of college, except even more athletic.

That said, i won't be dissapointed with another QB, they all have top qualities and should all be good NFL QB's. You might have to wait a year for Lance, but he'll be good too.

 

[Kinzu]

https://www.************.com/commentary/2592-my-case-for-justin-fields/

The more articles/opinions i read, the more i think Justin Fields in the pick, even if Zach Wilson is on the board. Accurate to all levels of the field, played against top competition including bowl games, and performed at a high level for two seasons. What more can we ask for because there is no perfect QB prospect. We focus too much on the negatives or perceived negatives. For me, he is like Deshaun Watson coming out of college, except even more athletic.

That said, i won't be dissapointed with another QB, they all have top qualities and should all be good NFL QB's. You might have to wait a year for Lance, but he'll be good too.

I'm leaning with Fields being not only the obvious choice but the best choice as well after trading 2 future 1st Round picks. I remember wishing Georgia had recruited Lawrence because he looked like John Elway playing QB in High School, but then I read Fields actually out performed Lawrence at the Elite 11 QB Camp. The 2 have been neck and neck competing against each other for not only the Top QB in the State of Georgia, but for the Top QB in the Nation for years now. It's not exactly like Lawrence has been the clear cut best of the two.

If you want to look it up it's the Elite 11 Camp from 2017. Fields and Lawrence attended it and Fields was the camp MVP. Shanahan worked with Fields at one of those QB Camps so it's not like who doesn't know who the guy is or what he's capable of doing.

 

[deep9er]

I'm leaning with Fields being not only the obvious choice but the best choice as well after trading 2 future 1st Round picks. I remember wishing Georgia had recruited Lawrence because he looked like John Elway playing QB in High School, but then I read Fields actually out performed Lawrence at the Elite 11 QB Camp. The 2 have been neck and neck competing against each other for not only the Top QB in the State of Georgia, but for the Top QB in the Nation for years now. It's not exactly like Lawrence has been the clear cut best of the two.

If you want to look it up it's the Elite 11 Camp from 2017. Fields and Lawrence attended it and Fields was the camp MVP. Shanahan worked with Fields at one of those QB Camps so it's not like who doesn't know who the guy is or what he's capable of doing.

Yep, Fields certainly seems like the top prospect except maybe Lawrence? Unless Shannahan evaluates less intangibles in Fields, how can he not be the pick?

Wilson isn't far behind, but his "resume" is less than Fields.

Lance and Jones certainly have positives too, enough of their own positives to be good NFL QB's. Granted, Jones would need to land with the right scheme more so than Lance?

 

[deep9er]

Why wouldn't the Jets take Fields at #2, i would?