Just how dominant is the SEC?

[Gator91]

Please post the scores of every game so we can fact check

Be careful of what you wish for!

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

They playoffs have been around since 1998?

1998 was the first year of the BCS Championship, it was a 2 team playoff, so yes.

 

[Gator91]

It would be interesting to see how that played out on a longer timeline.


Bama certainly has been the flagship, dominant program for 10+ years. They can still run the ball, but they're doing something unprecedented with the insane speed at wideout the last few years. Auburn and LSU tend to hit short cycles as contenders in the SECW. The level of competition on and off the field makes it the best division in CFB.

The SECE had some down years, and hasn't really kept up, with the exception of UGA's window. How many SECCG's has UF lost?

I do think @RaZon hit on the fundamental difference between the SEC and other conferences, though, and it's the athleticism of the DL's and defense in general

Here is the really interesting part.
............ACC Team.....Avg Conf Rnk.........Act-Exp
1....Virginia Tech..........3.693....................-6.5 Games......-27.08%
2....Florida St.................3.974....................-1.5 Games........-3.26%
3....Clemson...................4.192....................-1 Games..........-1.81%
4....Louisville..................6.167....................-3 Games.........-18.75%
5....Miami (FL)...............6.297....................-1.5 Games........-5.35%..........Top 1/2.....-20.75 Games
6....Georgia Tech.........6.875....................-6.5 Games......-14.77%
7....Pittsburgh................7.714....................+1 Games..........+7.69%
8....1/2 NC State..........7.962....................-1.75 Games....-16.66%

8....1/2 NC State..........7.962....................-1.75 Games....-16.66%
9....Boston College......8.006....................-3 Games.........-13.04%
10..Maryland..................8.419....................0 Games..............0.00%
11..North Carolina.......8.518....................-2 Games...........-7.40%
12..Virginia......................9.561....................-1 Games...........-4.00%.....Bottom 1/2......-7.25 Games
13..Wake Forest............9.957....................+1 Games..........+3.44%
14..Syracuse.................10.571....................-1.5 Games.......-13.63%
15..Duke........................11.196....................+1 Games..........+3.33%
....ACC Conf.................................................-28 Games.......................................ALL....................-28 Games



.......Big Ten Team.....Avg Conf Rnk.........Act-Exp
1....Ohio St..................1.999....................-5.5 Games.......-13.09%
2....Michigan...............4.709....................-4.5 Games.......-10.22%
3....Wisconsin.............4.814....................+1.5 Games.......+4.68%
4....Penn St..................5.855....................-4.5 Games.......-16.07%..........Top 1/2......-22.5 Games
5....Iowa........................5.905....................-6.5 Games.......-14.44%
6....Michigan St...........6.723...................+1.5 Games.......+4.05%
7....Nebraska...............7.162....................-4.5 Games.......-30.00%

8....Minnesota.............8.803....................-1.5 Games.........-6.52%
9....Northwestern........9.166....................+2.5 Games.......+6.94%
10..Purdue.....................9.716....................-2 Games............-5.40%
11..Maryland.............10.500....................+1 Games........+12.50%.....Bottom 1/2.......+0.5 Games
12..Illinois................. 10.895....................-0.5 Games.........-2.17%
13..Indiana................11.719...................+1.5 Games........+6.81%
14..Rutgers...............12.333.....................-0.5 Games.........-6.25%
...Big Ten Conf..........................................-22 Games.......................................All.......................-22 Games



.......PAC 12 Team.....Avg Conf Rnk.........Act-Exp
1....Southern Cal..........3.738....................-2 Games............-3.50%
2....Oregon.....................4.060....................-1.5 Games.........-4.05%
3....Utah...........................6.121....................-1 Games..........-14.28%..........Top 1/2............-4 Games
4....Stanford..................6.692....................-1 Games............-2.56%
5....UCLA..........................7.671....................+1.5 Games.......+3.84%
6....Washington...........7.874.................... 0 Games..............0.00%

7....Oregon St...............8.150....................-1 Games.............-7.14%
8....California.................8.203....................-2 Games.............-6.45%
9....Arizona St................8.229....................-3.5 Games........-10.60%.....Bottom 1/2...........-2 Games
10..Washington St......8.990.................... 0 Games..............0.00%
11..Arizona.....................9.975....................+2.5 Games.....+15.62%
12..Colorado...............11.111....................+2 Games........+40.00%
........PAC Conf.................................................-6 Games........................................All.........................-6 Games


.........Big 12 Team.....Avg Conf Rnk.........Act-Exp
1....Oklahoma...............1.906....................-4.5 Games.......-11.84%
2....Texas.........................4.591....................-1 Games............-2.56%
3....Nebraska.................5.727...................+1 Games...........+4.76%
4....Texas Christian.....6.236...................-0.5 Games..........-3.57%..........Top 1/2............-6 Games
5....Oklahoma St.........6.397....................-1 Games............-3.44%
6....Kansas St.................7.651....................-1.5 Games.........-6.25%
7....Missouri...................7.806...................+1.5 Games........+7.89%

8....Texas A&M............7.927....................-1.5 Games.........-9.37%
9....Texas Tech.............7.933....................+2.5 Games......+10.86%
10..West Virginia.......8.042.....................-1.5 Games.......-10.00%
11..Baylor......................9.286....................+2 Games.........+13.33%.....Bottom 1/2........+10 Games
12..Colorado...............9.380....................-0.5 Games.........-2.50%
13..Iowa St.................10.284....................+6 Games........+24.00%
14..Kansas...................11.741.....................+3 Games........+23.07%
....Big 12 Conf............................................+4 Games..........................................All........................+4 Games

Notice that in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and the PAC12 conferences, the LOWER teams outperformed the HIGHER teams and that in ALL four conferences the HIGHER teams UNDERPERFORMED.

It is also interesting that ONE annual games skews the data disproportionately. Iowa State has beaten the higher ranked Iowa team 6 times! Without these games the Big Ten would only be down -16.5 (instead of -22.5) games and the Big 12 would then become a net underperformer at -2 games.



...................................Avg Conf Rnk.........Act-Exp
5.390..Notre Dame.....5.390....................+3 Games..........+1.70%.....All........................+3 Games


.......SEC 12 Team.....Avg Conf Rnk.........Act-Exp
1....LSU...........................3.727....................+6.5 Games......+18.57%
2....Alabama...............4.105....................+2.5 Games........+6.75%
3....Georgia.................4.209....................+7 Games.........+14.28%
4....Florida....................5.173....................+6 Games.........+15.78%..........Top 1/2.........+30 Games
5....Auburn...................6.105....................+3.5 Games......+10.93%
6....Texas A&M..........6.250....................+2.5 Games......+19.23%
7....Tennessee.............7.964....................+2 Games..........+6.89%

8....South Carolina......8.250.....................+9 Games.......+22.50%
9....Arkansas..................8.436......................0 Games.............0.00%
10..Missouri..................8.750....................+0.5 Games........+4.54%
11..Mississippi.............9.345....................+1.5 Games........+7.89%.....Bottom 1/2........+19 Games
12..Mississippi St.......9.686......................0 Games.............0.00%
13..Kentucky..............11.155....................+6 Games.........+31.57%
14..Vanderbilt..........11.845....................+2 Games...........+7.69%
... SEC Conf..................................................+49 Games.....................................All .....................+49 Games

Notice that in the SEC the HIGHER teams outperformed the lower teams but BOTH sets OVERPERFORMED. Not a single SEC team lost ground to the other P5 teams.

The data strongly suggests that not only is the team at the top of the SEC (BAMA) good but the rest are better than their counterparts in the other conferences also.

 

[Fitbud]

1998 was the first year of the BCS Championship, it was a 2 team playoff, so yes.

My original conversation was in regards to the four team playoff but I'm still interested in your findings none the less.

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

My original conversation was in regards to the four team playoff but I'm still interested in your findings none the less.

I think the Gator dude will have to help you with that.

 

[Gator91]

My original conversation was in regards to the four team playoff but I'm still interested in your findings none the less.

The CFP has been in existence for 7 seasons 2014-2020. (7 games, 14 total appearances).

Conference..............Appearances........#Wins..........#Losses..............Team(s)........Team..........................Title season(s)
SEC..............................................7...........................4......................3...........................3........Alabama (3–2)............2015, 2017, 2020
.....................................................................................................................................................LSU (1–0)........................2019
.....................................................................................................................................................Georgia (0–1)...............None
ACC..............................................4..........................2.......................2...........................1........Clemson (2–2).............2016, 2018
Big Ten......................................2...........................1.......................1...........................1........Ohio State (1–1)........2014
Pac-12........................................1...........................0.......................1...........................1........Oregon (0–1)...............None

 

[Gator91]

My original conversation was in regards to the four team playoff but I'm still interested in your findings none the less.

I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for so I'll post some more stuff.
2014-2015
1 Alabama (12–1)
2 Oregon (12–1)
3 Florida State (13–0)
4 Ohio State (12–1)

2015–16
1 Clemson (13–0)
2 Alabama (12–1)
3 Michigan State (12–1)
4 Oklahoma (11–1)

2016–17
1 Alabama (13–0)
2 Clemson (12–1)
3 Ohio State (11–1)
4 Washington (12–1)

2017–18
1 Clemson (12–1)
2 Oklahoma (12–1)
3 Georgia (12–1)
4 Alabama (11–1)

2018–19
1 Alabama (13–0)
2 Clemson (13–0)
3 Notre Dame (12–0)
4 Oklahoma (12–1)

2019–20
1 LSU (13–0)
2 Ohio State (13–0)
3 Clemson (13–0)
4 Oklahoma (12–1)

2020–21
1 Alabama (11–0)
2 Clemson (10–1)
3 Ohio State (6–0)
4 Notre Dame (10–1)


Team.............................Conf........# App........Record
Florida State.............ACC.............1................0-1
Michigan.....................Big Ten.....1................0-1
Oregon.........................PAC.............1................0-1
Washington...............PAC.............1................0-1
Georgia........................SEC.............1................0-1
Notre Dame.............IND..............2................0-2
Oklahoma..................Big 12........4................0-4
LSU................................SEC..............1................1-0
Ohio State.................Big Ten......4................1-3
Clemson.....................ACC..............6................2-4
Alabama....................SEC...............6................3-3
ALL.....................................................28.............7-21

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for so I'll post some more stuff.
2014-2015
1 Alabama (12–1)
2 Oregon (12–1)
3 Florida State (13–0)
4 Ohio State (12–1)

2015–16
1 Clemson (13–0)
2 Alabama (12–1)
3 Michigan State (12–1)
4 Oklahoma (11–1)

2016–17
1 Alabama (13–0)
2 Clemson (12–1)
3 Ohio State (11–1)
4 Washington (12–1)

2017–18
1 Clemson (12–1)
2 Oklahoma (12–1)
3 Georgia (12–1)
4 Alabama (11–1)

2018–19
1 Alabama (13–0)
2 Clemson (13–0)
3 Notre Dame (12–0)
4 Oklahoma (12–1)

2019–20
1 LSU (13–0)
2 Ohio State (13–0)
3 Clemson (13–0)
4 Oklahoma (12–1)

2020–21
1 Alabama (11–0)
2 Clemson (10–1)
3 Ohio State (6–0)
4 Notre Dame (10–1)


Team.............................Conf........# App........Record
Florida State.............ACC.............1................0-1
Michigan.....................Big Ten.....1................0-1
Oregon.........................PAC.............1................0-1
Washington...............PAC.............1................0-1
Georgia........................SEC.............1................0-1
Notre Dame.............IND..............2................0-2
Oklahoma..................Big 12........4................0-4
LSU................................SEC..............1................1-0
Ohio State.................Big Ten......4................1-3
Clemson.....................ACC..............6................2-4
Alabama....................SEC...............6................3-3
ALL.....................................................28.............7-21

You omitted Oregon’s 39 point win????? And UGA win over OU

 

[Gator91]

I think the Gator dude will have to help you with that.

Year..................................................Game................................................Winner..............................Loser
2015.....Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game...........No. 2 Oregon 59...........No. 3 Florida State 20

................Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl.......................No. 4 Ohio State 42....No. 1 Alabama 35

................CFP National Championship: North Texas...........No. 4 Ohio State 42....No. 2 Oregon 20



2016.....Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl....................No. 1 Clemson 37........No. 4 Oklahoma 17

................Playoff Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic.....No. 2 Alabama 38........No. 3 Michigan State 0

................CFP National Championship: Arizona....................No. 2 Alabama 45.........No. 1 Clemson 40



2017.....Playoff Semifinal at the Peach Bowl.......................No. 1 Alabama 24..........No. 4 Washington 7

................Playoff Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl.......................No. 2 Clemson 31...........No. 3 Ohio State 0

................CFP National Championship: Tampa......................No. 2 Clemson 35...........No. 1 Alabama 31



2018.....Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game............No. 3 Georgia 54.............No. 2 Oklahoma 48 (2OT)

................Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl........................No. 4 Alabama 24...........No. 1 Clemson 6

................CFP National Championship: Atlanta......................No. 4 Alabama 26...........No. 3 Georgia 23 (OT)



2019.....Playoff Semifinal at the Cotton Bowl Classic.......No. 2 Clemson 30...........No. 3 Notre Dame 3

................Playoff Semifinal at the Orange Bowl.....................No. 1 Alabama 45..........No. 4 Oklahoma 34

................CFP National Championship: Bay Area...................No. 2 Clemson 44...........No. 1 Alabama 16



2020.....Playoff Semifinal at the Peach Bowl.........................No. 1 LSU 63......................No. 4 Oklahoma 28

................Playoff Semifinal at the Fiesta Bowl.........................No. 3 Clemson 29............No. 2 Ohio State 23

................CFP National Championship: New Orleans...........No. 1 LSU 42.......................No. 3 Clemson 25




2021.....Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game..............No. 1 Alabama 31..........No. 4 Notre Dame 14

................Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl..........................No. 3 Ohio State 49.......No. 2 Clemson 28

................CFP National Championship: Miami..........................No. 1 Alabama 52..........No. 3 Ohio State 24



Alabama.................8 - 3
Clemson..................6 - 4
Florida State.........0 - 1
Georgia...................1 - 1
LSU............................2 - 0
Michigan State...0 - 1
Notre Dame.........0 - 2
Ohio State.............3 - 3
Oklahoma..............0 - 4
Oregon....................1 - 1
Washington..........0 - 1

Total......................21 - 21

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

So looks like only 6 teams have won a game in the CFB playoffs. Ironically the top 6 in 2021 recruiting are the same teams.

 

[RaZon]

There have been 20 sub10.00 100m sprinters among the alumni of SEC schools.

The Big10 has never had a sub10.00 sprinter.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

So looks like only 6 teams have won a game in the CFB playoffs. Ironically the top 6 in 2021 recruiting are the same teams.View attachment 265506

Of the others who played in the CFP and never won, only one of the nine losses was by single-digits.

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

So looks like only 6 teams have won a game in the CFB playoffs. Ironically the top 6 in 2021 recruiting are the same teams.View attachment 265506

I think you mean predictably, not ironically.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

I think you mean predictably, not ironically.

Winners get better players. Better players win.

It’s a vicious cycle. Glad we’re on the inside.

 

[Fitbud]

I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for so I'll post some more stuff.
2014-2015
1 Alabama (12–1)
2 Oregon (12–1)
3 Florida State (13–0)
4 Ohio State (12–1)

2015–16
1 Clemson (13–0)
2 Alabama (12–1)
3 Michigan State (12–1)
4 Oklahoma (11–1)

2016–17
1 Alabama (13–0)
2 Clemson (12–1)
3 Ohio State (11–1)
4 Washington (12–1)

2017–18
1 Clemson (12–1)
2 Oklahoma (12–1)
3 Georgia (12–1)
4 Alabama (11–1)

2018–19
1 Alabama (13–0)
2 Clemson (13–0)
3 Notre Dame (12–0)
4 Oklahoma (12–1)

2019–20
1 LSU (13–0)
2 Ohio State (13–0)
3 Clemson (13–0)
4 Oklahoma (12–1)

2020–21
1 Alabama (11–0)
2 Clemson (10–1)
3 Ohio State (6–0)
4 Notre Dame (10–1)


Team.............................Conf........# App........Record
Florida State.............ACC.............1................0-1
Michigan.....................Big Ten.....1................0-1
Oregon.........................PAC.............1................0-1
Washington...............PAC.............1................0-1
Georgia........................SEC.............1................0-1
Notre Dame.............IND..............2................0-2
Oklahoma..................Big 12........4................0-4
LSU................................SEC..............1................1-0
Ohio State.................Big Ten......4................1-3
Clemson.....................ACC..............6................2-4
Alabama....................SEC...............6................3-3
ALL.....................................................28.............7-21

Thanks for the information. Basically my argument is that if any other conference had as many chances in the Playoff as the SEC, you likely would have seen similar results.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

Thanks for the information. Basically my argument is that if any other conference had as many chances in the Playoff as the SEC, you likely would have seen similar results.

The ACC has had 7 shots and 2 titles. So they have had as many shots.

The B1G had 5 chances with 1 title. The B12 had 4 chances with zero titles. The PAC had 2 chances with zero titles. That’s 11 chances with 1 title with their best teams getting shots.

Why do you suppose their results would’ve been improved with their inferior teams getting additional shots?

If you expand to the entirety of the 06-present time frame, the B1G had 2 additional shots with zero wins. Ditto for the B12. The PAC had an additional shot and lost. So did ND. Again, the ACC had a shot and won.

In aggregate:

ACC - 8 shots, 3 titles
B1G - 7 shots, 1 title
B12 - 6 shots, zero titles
PAC - 3 shots, zero titles

The conferences outside the ACC are 1/16. ACC is 3/8. SEC is 11/17. There literally is no way to read that data and support your conclusion.

 

[Fitbud]

What am I missing here. the SEC has had a team in every playoff and 2 teams in one year. How has anyone else had more shots than them? Seeding also is a factor too.

 

[BamaDude]

Fixing your stat:




Team.............................Conf........# App........Record
Florida State.............ACC.........……1..............0-1
Michigan St..…...........Big Ten...….1................0-1
Oregon.........................PAC.............1..............1-1
Washington...............PAC.............1...…...........0-1
Georgia........................SEC...........1................1-1
Notre Dame.............IND/ACC…….2................0-2
Oklahoma..................Big 12......….4................0-4
LSU................................SEC..........1...............2-0
Ohio State.................Big Ten...……4...............3-3
Clemson.....................ACC..............6...............6-4
Alabama....................SEC...............6................8-3
ALL.................................................28............21-21

 

[BamaDude]

Chances based on First-round results:

Florida St. (ACC) 0-1
Michigan St. (Big 10) 0-1
Washington (Pac-12) 0-1
Notre Dame (Indy) 0-1
Notre Dame (ACC) 0-1
Oregon (Pac-12) 1-0
Georgia (SEC) 1-0
LSU (SEC) 1-0
Oklahoma (Big 12) 0-4
Ohio St. (Big 10) 2-2
Clemson (ACC) 4-2
Alabama (SEC) 5-1
TOTAL. 14-14

Totals by conference:

Big 12 0-4 .000
Pac-12 1-1 .500
Big 10 2-3 .400
Independents 0-1 .000
ACC 4-4 .500
SEC 7-1 .875

The SEC has as many first round wins as all the other conferences combined.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

What am I missing here. the SEC has had a team in every playoff and 2 teams in one year. How has anyone else had more shots than them? Seeding also is a factor too.

Your assertion is “but for more opportunities...” when the reality is that the other conferences (outside the ACC) haven’t done much with the opportunities they got.