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Just how dominant is the SEC?

broncosmitty

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The SEC has had multiple advantages in football namely recruiting areas and the ability to oversign with no regulation

When you're Bama and have the best recruiting area in the country, an awesome history, a great coach AND you basically get 1 free recruiting class every 4 years by oversigning it becomes really easy
Easy seems like something it isn’t.

Saban is the best college football coach. That’s hard.
 

rmilia1

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Easy seems like something it isn’t.

Saban is the best college football coach. That’s hard.
Easy is relative. Like it's easier to be rich when your parents are rich or easier to get laid as the first guy at an all girls school. You still have to work. It's just when you're a blue blood, in a good recruiting area, with warmer temps, you get a free loss every year , you've got relatively low academic standards AND you get to sign 30 guys per year instead of 25 your job isn't as tough as others
 

broncosmitty

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Easy is relative. Like it's easier to be rich when your parents are rich or easier to get laid as the first guy at an all girls school. You still have to work. It's just when you're a blue blood, in a good recruiting area, with warmer temps, you get a free loss every year , you've got relatively low academic standards AND you get to sign 30 guys per year instead of 25 your job isn't as tough as others
I understand the having an advantage part. Compared to say, Iowa.

But when I was a kid, Texas, Florida State, Miami and Penn State had blood just as blue as Bama.
 

Diego Roll Tide

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The SEC has had multiple advantages in football namely recruiting areas and the ability to oversign with no regulation

When you're Bama and have the best recruiting area in the country, an awesome history, a great coach AND you basically get 1 free recruiting class every 4 years by oversigning it becomes really easy
Those same “advantages” were there in 06 when people were calling Alabama a “terrible job that nobody wanted”.

How about the rest either get their shit together and stop making excuses?
 

cclxxxvdicere

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The SEC has had multiple advantages in football namely recruiting areas and the ability to oversign with no regulation

When you're Bama and have the best recruiting area in the country, an awesome history, a great coach AND you basically get 1 free recruiting class every 4 years by oversigning it becomes really easy
The Alabama 2021 class has players from 11 states, including our traditional recruiting areas of Washington, Ohio, Michigan, and Maryland.
I don’t think you understand anything about “oversigning” or whether or not Alabama is unregulated. I suspect Nick Saban knows a lot more than you do about roster management and how many players he can sign in any given year. If you think all those other coaches would just sit there and let him ignore rules that they must follow, then you must think they’re all fools.
 

Diego Roll Tide

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The Alabama 2021 class has players from 11 states, including our traditional recruiting areas of Washington, Ohio, Michigan, and Maryland.
I don’t think you understand anything about “oversigning” or whether or not Alabama is unregulated. I suspect Nick Saban knows a lot more than you do about roster management and how many players he can sign in any given year. If you think all those other coaches would just sit there and let him ignore rules that they must follow, then you must think they’re all fools.
The “academic standards” part is laughable as well. He acts as though CFB players in other conferences routinely have 98th percentile SAT scores. Outside of a handful of elite schools, Alabama’s FB academic performance is comparable to or better than most.
 

cclxxxvdicere

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The “academic standards” part is laughable as well. He acts as though CFB players in other conferences routinely have 98th percentile SAT scores. Outside of a handful of elite schools, Alabama’s FB academic performance is comparable to or better than most.
He could just go to the 24/7 recruiting board and check which schools offered those same players, and he’d see that all those top recruits had offers from supposedly elite schools too. If Alabama is a second rate school that can only get these players because they couldn’t make it at the “good” schools, why are those schools giving them offers?
 

Diego Roll Tide

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He could just go to the 24/7 recruiting board and check which schools offered those same players, and he’d see that all those top recruits had offers from supposedly elite schools too. If Alabama is a second rate school that can only get these players because they couldn’t make it at the “good” schools, why are those schools giving them offers?
Maybe they sign at Alabama because they fear the rigor of Pitt, Michigan State, Kansas, and Oregon State
 

Gator91

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Ok, let's try something a little different.
How about if we start with the premise that all P5 conferences are “alike” in talent and depth? Then, for example, say the ACC and Big Ten conferences played each other with each member matched numerically with their counterpart in the other conference, then the EXPECTED outcome would be 14 ties. In today’s world all would go into overtime until a winner was determined. Thus, the outcome SHOULD be 7 wins and 7 losses for each conference. However, if two teams of unequal conference seating played then the expected outcome would be a win for the team with the lower numbered seating and a loss for the higher numbered seating. This creates an expectation for each conference member. To make comparisons “fairer” the smaller conferences can be scaled up to a hypothetical 14 team conference.

In 2019 the PAC 12 rankings were: #1 (1) Oregon, #2.182 (2) Utah, #3.364 (3) Washington, #4.545 (4) Southern California, #5.727 (5) Arizona St, #6.909 (6) California, #8.091 (7) Washington St, #9.273 (8) Oregon St, #10.455 (9) Colorado, #11.636 (10) UCLA, #12.818 (11) Stanford, and #14 (12) Arizona.

In 2019, the Big 12 rankings were: #1 (1) Oklahoma, #2.444 (2) Baylor, #3.889 (3) Texas, #5.333 (4) Kansas St, #6.778 (5) Oklahoma St, #8.222 (6) Iowa St, #9.667 (7) TCU, #11.111 (8)West Virginia, #12.556 (9) Texas Tech, and #14 (10) Kansas.

Now by looking at the actual outcome of each game we can see which teams exceeded expectation, which met expectations and which failed to meet expectations. In this manner, each conference member is responsible for upholding “its” part and only “its” part of the conferences schedule. Then we can see which conference(s) and teams aren't playing up to snuff. How about it?
I don't like responding to my own post nor do I like "hijacking" a thread but since I'm new here with limited access and limited knowledge of board protocols I'm going to go for it and post anyway......

During the 2020 season there were only 12 non-conferences games between P5 teams and all were Bowl Games.

ACC teams:.....1.00 Clemson(L).....2.00 Miami-Fl(L).....3.00 North Carolina(L).....4.00 NC State(L).....9.00 Wake Forest(L)
........Played..........1.00 Ohio St.........5.33 Oklahoma St.....2.00 Texas A&M.................8.00 Kentucky...............5.00 Wisconsin
The assumed results for the ACC were 2-2-1 but the actual results were 0-5 or 2.5 less wins than expected. Thus, the ACC failed to meet expectations.

Big Ten teams:....1.00 Ohio St(W).....1.00 Ohio St(L)......2.00 Northwestern(W)......4.00 Indiana(L)......5.00 Wisconsin(W)
...............Played......1.00 Clemson...........1.00 Alabama............5.00 Auburn.......................7.00 Mississippi......9.00 Wake Forest
The expected results for the Big Ten teams were 3-0-2 or 4-1-0 but the actual results were 3-2. That’s 1 less win than expected. The Big Ten also failed to meet expectations.

PAC 12 teams:......3.36 Oregon(L)......6.91 Colorado(L)
...............Played........2.44 Iowa St............3.89 Texas
The expected results for the PAC 12 teams were 0-2-0 and exactly matches actual results at 0-2. Thus, the PAC met expectations.

ND: 1.57 Notre Dame(L)
Played 1.00 Alabama
The expected result for ND was 0-1-0 and exactly matches actual results at 0-1. ND met expectations.

Big 12 teams:......1.00 Oklahoma(W)......2.44 Iowa St(W)......3.89 Texas(W)......5.33 Oklahoma St(W)
............Played.........4.00 Florida......................3.36 Oregon............6.91 Colorado......2.00 Miami (Florida)
The expected results for the Big 12 teams were 3-1-0 but the actual results were 1 more win at 4-0. The Big 12 exceeded expectations.

SEC teams:....1.00 Alabama(W).....1.00 Alabama(W)....2.00 Texas A&M(W)......4.00 Florida(L)......5.00 Auburn(L)......7.00 Ole Miss(W)......8.00 Kentucky(W)
......Played.......1.00 Ohio St..................1.57 Notre Dame.....3.00 North Carolina.....1.00 Oklahoma.....2.00 Northwestern.....4.00 Indiana...........4.00 NC State
The expected results for the SEC teams were 2-4-1 but the actual results were 5-2 or 2.5 more wins. The SEC exceeded expectations.

There were 3 more Bowl Games involving P5 teams (vs G5 opponents). There were more G5 ranked teams last year than normal so how did they do?
P5 teams:......SEC #3.00 Georgia(W)...........SEC #10.00 Mississippi St(W)......Big 12 #8.22 West Virginia(W)
Played G5.....AAC #1.00 Cincinnati...........................AAC #2.30 Tulsa........................G5 Indep #6.02 Army
The expected results for the P5 teams were 0-3-0 but the actual results were 3 more wins at 3-0.

More later...
 

JohnShadows

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All SEC

QB....Peyton Manning Tenn/Colts
RB....Emmitt Smith Fla/Cowboys
RB....Bo Jackson Aub/Raiders
WR....Don Hutson Ala/Packers
WR.....Sterling Sharpe SoCar/Packers
TE....Jason Witten Tenn/Cowboys

What NCAA conference rivals that?
Sterling was great, but we weren't in the SEC when he was here. But Julio Jones or AJ Green would be good there.
 

JohnShadows

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I don't like responding to my own post nor do I like "hijacking" a thread but since I'm new here with limited access and limited knowledge of board protocols I'm going to go for it and post anyway......

During the 2020 season there were only 12 non-conferences games between P5 teams and all were Bowl Games.

ACC teams:.....1.00 Clemson(L).....2.00 Miami-Fl(L).....3.00 North Carolina(L).....4.00 NC State(L).....9.00 Wake Forest(L)
........Played..........1.00 Ohio St.........5.33 Oklahoma St.....2.00 Texas A&M.................8.00 Kentucky...............5.00 Wisconsin
The assumed results for the ACC were 2-2-1 but the actual results were 0-5 or 2.5 less wins than expected. Thus, the ACC failed to meet expectations.

Big Ten teams:....1.00 Ohio St(W).....1.00 Ohio St(L)......2.00 Northwestern(W)......4.00 Indiana(L)......5.00 Wisconsin(W)
...............Played......1.00 Clemson...........1.00 Alabama............5.00 Auburn.......................7.00 Mississippi......9.00 Wake Forest
The expected results for the Big Ten teams were 3-0-2 or 4-1-0 but the actual results were 3-2. That’s 1 less win than expected. The Big Ten also failed to meet expectations.

PAC 12 teams:......3.36 Oregon(L)......6.91 Colorado(L)
...............Played........2.44 Iowa St............3.89 Texas
The expected results for the PAC 12 teams were 0-2-0 and exactly matches actual results at 0-2. Thus, the PAC met expectations.

ND: 1.57 Notre Dame(L)
Played 1.00 Alabama
The expected result for ND was 0-1-0 and exactly matches actual results at 0-1. ND met expectations.

Big 12 teams:......1.00 Oklahoma(W)......2.44 Iowa St(W)......3.89 Texas(W)......5.33 Oklahoma St(W)
............Played.........4.00 Florida......................3.36 Oregon............6.91 Colorado......2.00 Miami (Florida)
The expected results for the Big 12 teams were 3-1-0 but the actual results were 1 more win at 4-0. The Big 12 exceeded expectations.

SEC teams:....1.00 Alabama(W).....1.00 Alabama(W)....2.00 Texas A&M(W)......4.00 Florida(L)......5.00 Auburn(L)......7.00 Ole Miss(W)......8.00 Kentucky(W)
......Played.......1.00 Ohio St..................1.57 Notre Dame.....3.00 North Carolina.....1.00 Oklahoma.....2.00 Northwestern.....4.00 Indiana...........4.00 NC State
The expected results for the SEC teams were 2-4-1 but the actual results were 5-2 or 2.5 more wins. The SEC exceeded expectations.

There were 3 more Bowl Games involving P5 teams (vs G5 opponents). There were more G5 ranked teams last year than normal so how did they do?
P5 teams:......SEC #3.00 Georgia(W)...........SEC #10.00 Mississippi St(W)......Big 12 #8.22 West Virginia(W)
Played G5.....AAC #1.00 Cincinnati...........................AAC #2.30 Tulsa........................G5 Indep #6.02 Army
The expected results for the P5 teams were 0-3-0 but the actual results were 3 more wins at 3-0.

More later...
It would be interesting to see how that played out on a longer timeline.


Bama certainly has been the flagship, dominant program for 10+ years. They can still run the ball, but they're doing something unprecedented with the insane speed at wideout the last few years. Auburn and LSU tend to hit short cycles as contenders in the SECW. The level of competition on and off the field makes it the best division in CFB.

The SECE had some down years, and hasn't really kept up, with the exception of UGA's window. How many SECCG's has UF lost?

I do think @RaZon hit on the fundamental difference between the SEC and other conferences, though, and it's the athleticism of the DL's and defense in general
 

Diego Roll Tide

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It would be interesting to see how that played out on a longer timeline.


Bama certainly has been the flagship, dominant program for 10+ years. They can still run the ball, but they're doing something unprecedented with the insane speed at wideout the last few years. Auburn and LSU tend to hit short cycles as contenders in the SECW. The level of competition on and off the field makes it the best division in CFB.

The SECE had some down years, and hasn't really kept up, with the exception of UGA's window. How many SECCG's has UF lost?

I do think @RaZon hit on the fundamental difference between the SEC and other conferences, though, and it's the athleticism of the DL's and defense in general
UF is 7-6 in SECCGs. All 6 losses have been against Bama.

Bama is 9-4 in SECCGs. All 4 losses have been against Florida.
 

Gator91

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It would be interesting to see how that played out on a longer timeline.


Bama certainly has been the flagship, dominant program for 10+ years. They can still run the ball, but they're doing something unprecedented with the insane speed at wideout the last few years. Auburn and LSU tend to hit short cycles as contenders in the SECW. The level of competition on and off the field makes it the best division in CFB.

The SECE had some down years, and hasn't really kept up, with the exception of UGA's window. How many SECCG's has UF lost?

I do think @RaZon hit on the fundamental difference between the SEC and other conferences, though, and it's the athleticism of the DL's and defense in general
I'm working on data back to 2000. It is really interesting (IMHO).
 

JohnShadows

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UF is 7-6 in SECCGs. All 6 losses have been against Bama.

Bama is 9-4 in SECCGs. All 4 losses have been against Florida.
Thx, though I was thinking more in the Saban era. Gators did beat Tide in the 2008 CG. But since then, they've lost 4 in a row. UGA is also 1-4 since '08. Those are the only two wins by the SECE in the last 13 tries.
 

Gator91

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It would be interesting to see how that played out on a longer timeline.


Bama certainly has been the flagship, dominant program for 10+ years. They can still run the ball, but they're doing something unprecedented with the insane speed at wideout the last few years. Auburn and LSU tend to hit short cycles as contenders in the SECW. The level of competition on and off the field makes it the best division in CFB.

The SECE had some down years, and hasn't really kept up, with the exception of UGA's window. How many SECCG's has UF lost?

I do think @RaZon hit on the fundamental difference between the SEC and other conferences, though, and it's the athleticism of the DL's and defense in general

I looked at games over the past 20 seasons (2000-2109). Without Notre Dame, the data are missing a significant number of games (176 games). It is possible to include ND in the data if a little “trick” is used. Each year five ND teams were included, one in each conference. The “relative rankings” of the five ND teams in each P5 conference are then averaged to give a “ND conference” ranking for each year.

Here are the results over the past 20 years for the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, PAC, and ND only.
.............expected record...........the actual record.................(difference)
ACC............86W - 136L ..................85W - 137L ................(-1W or -0.45%)
Big 12.....111W - 119L..................124W - 106L................(+13W or +5.65%)
Big Ten...163W - 158L..................152W - 169L................( -11W or -3.43%)
PAC........159.5W - 133.5L.............155W - 138L................(-4.5W or -1.54%)
ND............96.5W - 69.5L................100W - 66L..................(+3.5W or +2.11%)
Total..........616W - 616L.................616W - 616L................(0W)

It seems that the ACC, PAC and ND are performing about as expected (±5 games). The Big Ten performed a little sub-par (-11W) and the Big 12 a little over par(+13W). But what about the SEC?


Here are the results including the SEC.
.............expected record...........the actual record.................(difference)
ACC.......189W - 213L...............161W - 241L.....................( -28W or -6.97%)
Big 12.....153W - 158L...............157W - 154L.....................(+4W or +1.29%)
Big Ten...206W - 194L...............184W - 216L.....................(-22W or -5.50%)
PAC........177W - 152L...............171W - 158L......................(-6W or -1.82%)
ND...........102W - 74L................105W -71L..........................(+3W or +1.70%)
SEC.........175W - 211L...............224W - 162L......................(+49W or +12.69%)
Total.......1002W - 1002L.........1002W - 1002L.....................(0W)

It is interesting to see who are the heroes and who are the goats in each conference or which teams raised their conferences total and which ones lowered it.
 

JohnShadows

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The Alabama 2021 class has players from 11 states, including our traditional recruiting areas of Washington, Ohio, Michigan, and Maryland.
I don’t think you understand anything about “oversigning” or whether or not Alabama is unregulated. I suspect Nick Saban knows a lot more than you do about roster management and how many players he can sign in any given year. If you think all those other coaches would just sit there and let him ignore rules that they must follow, then you must think they’re all fools.
Yeah, I don't think the recruiting area thing holds as much sway these days for the elite programs. Like I had always been under the impression that OSU pulled most of their recruits from in-state. But if you look at the last 4-5 years, it's run like 1/3rd-1/5th. In 2018, they had as many players from FL as OH. It's even more dramatic with Clemson, they don't even offer some 4 stars here in SC. It might even be that geographical spread among your 4/5 stars is an indicator of success.

The elites have:
(1) Brand recognition. These are the most visible teams, with the best players. A lot of kids want to go to school near their homes, granted. But some of the most competitive ones want to be on the big stage, and play against the best. Clemson, OSU, and Bama are also basically NFL Minor League Teams, the amount of guys they get to the league.
(2) Wining begets winning. Making the CFP's just increases visibility. And all of the aforementioned have built a culture around winning, in their facilities, game prep, evaluation and development. When recruits show up on visits, this is likely on full display.
 

JohnShadows

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I looked at games over the past 20 seasons (2000-2109). Without Notre Dame, the data are missing a significant number of games (176 games). It is possible to include ND in the data if a little “trick” is used. Each year five ND teams were included, one in each conference. The “relative rankings” of the five ND teams in each P5 conference are then averaged to give a “ND conference” ranking for each year.

Here are the results over the past 20 years for the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, PAC, and ND only.
.............expected record...........the actual record.................(difference)
ACC............86W - 136L ..................85W - 137L ................(-1W or -0.45%)
Big 12.....111W - 119L..................124W - 106L................(+13W or +5.65%)
Big Ten...163W - 158L..................152W - 169L................( -11W or -3.43%)
PAC........159.5W - 133.5L.............155W - 138L................(-4.5W or -1.54%)
ND............96.5W - 69.5L................100W - 66L..................(+3.5W or +2.11%)
Total..........616W - 616L.................616W - 616L................(0W)

It seems that the ACC, PAC and ND are performing about as expected (±5 games). The Big Ten performed a little sub-par (-11W) and the Big 12 a little over par(+13W). But what about the SEC?


Here are the results including the SEC.
.............expected record...........the actual record.................(difference)
ACC.......189W - 213L...............161W - 241L.....................( -28W or -6.97%)
Big 12.....153W - 158L...............157W - 154L.....................(+4W or +1.29%)
Big Ten...206W - 194L...............184W - 216L.....................(-22W or -5.50%)
PAC........177W - 152L...............171W - 158L......................(-6W or -1.82%)
ND...........102W - 74L................105W -71L..........................(+3W or +1.70%)
SEC.........175W - 211L...............224W - 162L......................(+49W or +12.69%)
Total.......1002W - 1002L.........1002W - 1002L.....................(0W)

It is interesting to see who are the heroes and who are the goats in each conference or which teams raised their conferences total and which ones lowered it.
Nice data scraping there, wherever you obtained it.

Yeah, that's not even close. Surprised the B1G did that badly. ACC not so much.
 

Gator91

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Nice data scraping there, wherever you obtained it.

Yeah, that's not even close. Surprised the B1G did that badly. ACC not so much.
I'm a little hesitant to open my mouth and tell people where I got it. Everyone will realize that I need to get a life! I downloaded the game results from James Howell's website for every P5 team going back to 2000 (~15,000 games). Then sorted them to make sure I had both "halves" of every game. Then I down loaded the end of year rankings for each year from the Massey Composite Rankings, sorted them by conference and re-numbered them from 1 to 14 as described above. Then I had to match each yearly ranking with the games for that year and combine them so both teams had their corresponding conference ranking. Then, sorted out the out-of-conference P5 vs P5 games (2004 1/2 games). To check the data set I totaled up the conference ranking of opponent and the teams (they matched). I also checked the scores to make sure they matched as well.

The results were surprising but I haven't posted the biggest surprise yet......which teams dragged the conference totals down!
 

TheLonestarDUCK

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I'm a little hesitant to open my mouth and tell people where I got it. Everyone will realize that I need to get a life! I downloaded the game results from James Howell's website for every P5 team going back to 2000 (~15,000 games). Then sorted them to make sure I had both "halves" of every game. Then I down loaded the end of year rankings for each year from the Massey Composite Rankings, sorted them by conference and re-numbered them from 1 to 14 as described above. Then I had to match each yearly ranking with the games for that year and combine them so both teams had their corresponding conference ranking. Then, sorted out the out-of-conference P5 vs P5 games (2004 1/2 games). To check the data set I totaled up the conference ranking of opponent and the teams (they matched). I also checked the scores to make sure they matched as well.

The results were surprising but I haven't posted the biggest surprise yet......which teams dragged the conference totals down!
Please post the scores of every game so we can fact check
 

Fitbud

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This sounds a little fishy. Yes, since 1998 when the “playoffs” began Alabama has won 6 National Championships. BUT, didn’t Tennessee beat Florida State? Didn’t LSU beat Oklahoma? Didn’t Florida beat Ohio State? Didn’t LSU beat Ohio State? Didn’t Florida beat Oklahoma? Didn’t Auburn beat Oregon? The SEC seems to be a tad more than just Alabama. Since 1998, SEC teams not-named Alabama have won 7 championships, the ACC has won 4, the Big 12 and the Big Ten have won 2 each, the PAC and the Big East have one each. See post below for more discussion.


They playoffs have been around since 1998?
 
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