Just how dominant is the SEC?

[BamaDude]

What am I missing here. the SEC has had a team in every playoff and 2 teams in one year. How has anyone else had more shots than them? Seeding also is a factor too.

The ACC has also had a team in every playoff & two teams in one season. And each of those appearances was earned on the field. It's not the fault of the SEC (or the ACC) that the other conferences have failed to measure up.

Ohio St. won the championship as a #4 seed. Clemson won two titles as the #2 seed. LSU was the first #1 seed to win the title. Alabama won as a #2, #4, and #1 seed.

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

What am I missing here. the SEC has had a team in every playoff and 2 teams in one year. How has anyone else had more shots than them? Seeding also is a factor too.

No one has had more shots than them, but the ACC has had the same number. The SEC is 10-3 (.769) vs other conferences in the CFP, the ACC is 6-6 (.500), the Big10 is 3-4 (.429), the PAC12 is 1-2 (.333), the Big12 is 0-4 and Notre Dame is 0-1 as an independent (.000). How many shots you have doesn’t matter, what you do with them is. The number one seed has won only twice, LSU in 2019 and Alabama in 2020, so it doesn’t seem the seeding makes much of a difference. You’re twisting yourself into knots, just give it up.

 

[Gator]

No one has had more shots than them, but the ACC has had the same number. The SEC is 10-3 (.769) vs other conferences in the CFP, the ACC is 6-6 (.500), the Big10 is 3-4 (.429), the PAC12 is 1-2 (.333), the Big12 is 0-4 and Notre Dame is 0-1 as an independent (.000). How many shots you have doesn’t matter, what you do with them is. The number one seed has won only twice, LSU in 2019 and Alabama in 2020, so it doesn’t seem the seeding makes much of a difference. You’re twisting yourself into knots, just give it up.

Tiny correction. Your total wins are only 20 as are your total losses (apparently, you omitted UGa from SEC totals).

SEC is 11-4 (0.7333)
ACC is 6-6 (0.5000) (including 2020 ND)
Big Ten is 3-4 (0.4286)
PAC is 1-2 (0.3333)
ND as Ind is 0-1 (0.0000)
Big 12 is 0-4 (0.0000)
Total is 21-21.

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

Tiny correction. Your total wins are only 20 as are your total losses (apparently, you omitted UGa from SEC totals).

SEC is 11-4 (0.7333)
ACC is 6-6 (0.5000) (including 2020 ND)
Big Ten is 3-4 (0.4286)
PAC is 1-2 (0.3333)
ND as Ind is 0-1 (0.0000)
Big 12 is 0-4 (0.0000)
Total is 21-21.

I said against other conferences, you’re always going to be .500 against your own conference. What’s important is how you do against other conferences.

 

[Gator]

I said against other conferences, you’re always going to be .500 against your own conference. What’s important is how you do against other conferences.

You are correct sir. I re-read your post and it clearly said "vs other conferences in the CFP". Sorry.

 

[Fitbud]

Your assertion is “but for more opportunities...” when the reality is that the other conferences (outside the ACC) haven’t done much with the opportunities they got.

Have they had as many shots at the playoff as the SEC?

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

Have they had as many shots at the playoff as the SEC?

You are asserting something that requires one to
ignore results.

If their 12-1 conference champs cannot get it done, why would we have ANY reason to suspect 11-2 or worse teams would have done better?

 

[Fitbud]

You are asserting something that requires one to
ignore results.

If their 12-1 conference champs cannot get it done, why would we have ANY reason to suspect 11-2 or worse teams would have done better?

Ask the SEC. They seem to be the only conference that gets multiple teams in the playoff.

 

[Duckboy33]

Ask the SEC. They seem to be the only conference that gets multiple teams in the playoff.

ACC got two teams in the playoffs this year and they both got blown out in the first round

 

[cclxxxvdicere]

Ask the SEC. They seem to be the only conference that gets multiple teams in the playoff.

The first rule of holes applies.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

This isn’t even a debate. Top third of conferences SEC is the obvious winner. Middle and bottom of conference is just like everyone else.

 

[Gator91]

This isn’t even a debate. Top third of conferences SEC is the obvious winner. Middle and bottom of conference is just like everyone else.

I may be beating a dead horse but...one of the points that I was trying to make is that the SEC is NOT "top heavy". IF one allows each team in each conference to stand on its own one sees that the SEC doesn't depend only on the top 1/3 of the conference. How? I think it bears repeating how it can be done. Please, bear with me.

Methodology: Based on the premise that ALL of the P5 conferences are "equal in talent and distribution".

1) How does one determine the “pecking order” of the teams in each conference? One can use the Massey Composite which is an average of roughly 100 different ranking systems to sort out the members of each conference each year and re-numbered them as 1 - 14.

2) How should conferences that don’t have 14 members be treated? The ACC, Big Ten, and SEC have teams numbered: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14. (After using a bit of math) the PAC 12 has teams numbered 1, 2.1818, 3.3636, 4.5455, 5.7273, 6.9091, 8.0909, 9.2727, 10.4545, 11.6364, 12.8182 and 14. Similarly, the Big 12 (with 10 members) will have teams numbered: 1, 2.4444, 3.8889, 5.3333, 6.7778, 8.2222, 9.6667, 11.1111, 12.5556, and 14. Again, equal distribution of talent. (Of course, there have been years where each conference had less than 14 members and had be "re-numbered" as 1-14.)

3) “Expectations” are determined by taking an opponents conference ranking and subtracting the teams conference ranking and rounding the result to the nearest whole number. If the result is “+” then the team is “expected” to defeat their opponent. A “-” result means the team is expected to lose to their opponent. If the result is “0" then a tie is expected (counted as 1/2 W and 1/2L).

Over the 20 year span from 2000 - 2019...
...............................................Act W..............Act L.......................Exp W............Exp L.............Exp T.................Act - Exp
1 - 7..............SEC...............174....................71..........................128.....................76....................41......................+25.5.........+12.500%
1 - 7..............XIND............87......................40...........................83.......................33....................11......................-1.5.............-1.293%
1 - 7..............Big 12..........119...................72..........................110.....................51....................30......................-6.................-3.727%
1 - 7..............PAC...............138...................74..........................131.....................52....................29......................-7.5.............-4.098%
1 - 7..............Big Ten.......135...................118........................142.....................73....................38......................-26..............-12.093%
1 - 7..............ACC..............122...................111........................140.....................54....................39......................-37.5...........-19.330%

8 - 14...........SEC................50......................91..........................21.......................109..................1.........................+23.5.........+18.077%
8 - 14...........XIND............18......................31...........................13.......................35....................1.........................+4.5............+9.375%
8 - 14...........Big 12..........38......................82..........................22........................86...................12.......................+10.............+9.259%
8 - 14...........ACC...............9........................130........................23.......................133.................13.......................+9.5............+6.090%
8 - 14...........Big Ten.......49......................98...........................37.......................94....................16......................+4................+3.053%
8 - 14...........PAC...............33......................84..........................28.......................82....................7..........................+1.5............+1.364%

1 - 14...........SEC................224...................162........................149....................185.................52.......................+49.............+12.694%
1 - 14...........XIND............105....................71..........................96.......................68....................12.......................+3...............+1.705%
1 - 14...........Big 12..........157...................154........................132....................137.................42........................+4...............+1.286%
1 - 14...........PAC...............171...................158........................159....................134.................36........................-6................-1.824%
1 - 14...........Big Ten.......184....................216.......................179.....................167.................54.......................-22..............-5.500%
1 - 14...........ACC...............161...................241........................163....................187.................52.......................-28..............-6.965%

Notice that not only are the SEC teams 1-7 out performing their peers in the other P5 Conferences but so are the SEC teams 8-14. In fact percentage-wise the 8-14's are out performing the 1-7's.

 

[TheLonestarDUCK]

I’m not dissecting all that data. Format is not very good. Arkansas was the worst P5 team 2 seasons ago they lost to North Texas at home for Pete’s sake. I’d put the bottom teams in other conferences against Vanderbilt anytime anywhere. I recall Cal that ended up not bowl eligible beat Tennessee that qualified for a bowl, same thing with UCLA & Texas A&M a few years back. Are a couple examples that come to mind.

 

[Diego Roll Tide]

Ask the SEC. They seem to be the only conference that gets multiple teams in the playoff.

Why would I ask the SEC when you continue to make assertions you cannot justify?

 

[Gator91]

I’m not dissecting all that data. Format is not very good. Arkansas was the worst P5 team 2 seasons ago they lost to North Texas at home for Pete’s sake. I’d put the bottom teams in other conferences against Vanderbilt anytime anywhere. I recall Cal that ended up not bowl eligible beat Tennessee that qualified for a bowl, same thing with UCLA & Texas A&M a few years back. Are a couple examples that come to mind.

Now , you're cherry-picking. I'm talking about overall for a 20 span. Yes, every team loses games they "shouldn't" and win games they "shouldn't". The question is, over a 20 year span which type of "shouldn't happen" happens MORE often?

 

[Gator91]

I’m not dissecting all that data. Format is not very good. Arkansas was the worst P5 team 2 seasons ago they lost to North Texas at home for Pete’s sake. I’d put the bottom teams in other conferences against Vanderbilt anytime anywhere. I recall Cal that ended up not bowl eligible beat Tennessee that qualified for a bowl, same thing with UCLA & Texas A&M a few years back. Are a couple examples that come to mind.

The formatting looks fine on my computer??????

Anyway, let's take this step wise.
Arkansas wasn't very good in 2018 (2 - 10 & #14 in SEC) and yes they did lose to a 9-4 North Texas team (rated #69 nationally).
For contrast, Oregon State wasn't very good in 2018 either (2 - 10 & #14 PAC) and they lost to 8-5 Nevada (rated #74 nationally).
So, NO Arkansas WASN'T the worst.

In 2012 Vandy was ranked #23 in the final AP poll ahead of
#29 UCLA, #35 Arizona, #32 Southern California, #33 Arizona State, #52 Washington, #67, Utah, #81 California, #94 Washington State, and #116 Colorado.

In 2013 Vandy (9-4 & #9 in SEC) rated #31 nationally ahead of
#40 Oregon St, #51 Utah, #56 Washington St, #86 Colorado, and #107 California.

Vandy also finished ahead of #43 Michigan, #50 Penn St, and #63 Florida!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So, anytime, anywhere? I don't think so.

Next, in 2007 a 7-6 Cal did beat a 10-4 Tenn team.
A) Cal went to the Armed Forces Bowl that year.
B) In 2006 a 9-4 Tenn beat a 10-3 Cal team.
So they are "even".

Those are the only times Cal and Tenn played since 1990.

In 2017, a 7-6 Texas A&M (# 9 in SEC) did lose to a 6-7 UCLA team (#10 in PAC)....-1 W.
BTW, UCLA went to the Cactus Bowl that year.

That is the only time since joining the SEC that Texas A&M lost to a P5 team that they were "supposed to beat".

In contrast,
In 2012 Texas A&M #2 in the SEC beat Oklahoma #2 in the Big 12...........................+0.5 W
In 2013 Texas A&M #6 in the SEC beat Duke #3 in the ACC...........................................+1 W
In 2014 Texas A&M #9 in the SEC beat West Virginia #7 in the Big 12....................+1 W
In 2018 Texas A&M #5 in the SEC beat North Carolina State #3 in the ACC.........+1 W

Thus, Texas A&M is +2.5 W vs the other P5 conferences.

Finally, in 2014 Ohio State lost at home to 7-6 Virginia Tech but went on to win the CFP. Cherry-picking games can be misleading in terms of the overall picture.

 

[BamaDude]

Have they had as many shots at the playoff as the SEC?

Each Power-5 conference has had at least 7 opportunities (7 seasons) to place teams into the playoff. Failing to have a team that's good enough to get into the playoffs limits their appearances, but not their opportunities.

 

[BamaDude]

Ask the SEC. They seem to be the only conference that gets multiple teams in the playoff.

You must have skipped over post #101. The ACC got two teams into the 2020-21 playoffs & lost both first-round match-ups. The SEC got two teams into the 2017-18 playoffs, won their first-round matches & ended up playing each other for the National Championship.

The only time an SEC team has failed to advance past the first round was 2014 when they played a red-hot Ohio St. team for the de-facto championship in the first round. Since that time, three schools (Alabama, Georgia, LSU) have placed 7 teams into the finals in 6 years, winning 4 national titles.

 

[Bullitt08]

Is this some religious cult offering in which SEC fans want others to bow to their greatness and never again try to beat them?

SEC has been the best conference by FAR over the last 20 years. Nobody is going to disagree with you.

Some will get better. Some even like Clemson put a beat down on the SEC.

Time is ticking. When Saban leaves, it is a free-for-all.

Hmm looks like lately Clemson is the ones receiving beat downs.

 

[Bullitt08]

1998 was the first year of the BCS Championship, it was a 2 team playoff, so yes.

I feel it started in 1992 with The Bowl Coalition pitting #1 vs #2.