Historical Perspective QB Efficiency

[NinerSickness]

So I posted this on the old ESPN forum a long time ago, and I figured I'd post it here too. Actually, the "Forever Young" video got me thinking about this again...

Comparing QBs from different eras is extremely flawed. However, much like in baseball, I think a lot can be leared by comparing QBs to the AVERAGE NUMBERS a QB put up in the particular span of his career. So after days of adding, I determined the average competion percentage, YPA and passer rating of an NFL QB during the span of the careers of the following players: Tom Brady, John Elway, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Kurt Warner & Steve Young. (alphabetical order) I didn't want to add all the numbers up as far back as Unitas, Otto, etc so apologies to them.
Note: I did this in 2009, so these need to be updated by 1 season for the 3 active QBs on the list. Here are the average numbers for each of those players' careers:

Name, Passer Rating, Completion Percentage, YPA:

*Brady: 85.489 61.380 7.103
Elway: 79.907 58.037 7.131
Favre: 86.585 60.302 7.073
Manning: 85.373 61.160 7.137
Marino: 80.062 58.052 7.128
Montana: 77.984 57.132 7.150
Warner: 85.062 60.977 7.098
Young: 80.012 58.081 7.103

Best Passer ratings VS the AVG:

1: Young: +16.788
2: Montana: +14.316
3. Manning: +9.827
4. Warner: +8.638
5. *Brady: +7.811
6. Marinio: +6.338
7. Favre: +0.15
8. Elway: -0.007

Best Completion Percentage VS the AVG:

1. Young: +6.200
2. Montana: +6.068
3. Warner: +4.527
4. Manning: +3.637
5. *Brady: +1.968
6. Favre: +1.700
7. Marino: +0.014
8. Elway: -0.012

Best YPA VS the AVG:

1. Young: +0.877
2. Warner: +0.852
3. Manning: +0.538
4. Montana: +0.417
5. Marino: +0.214
6. *Brady: +0.209
7. Favre: +0.007
8. Elway: -0.031


When I did this I also did McNabb to show how overrated he's been in his career and that he shouldn't be compared to HOFers, he should be compared to the likes of Boomer Essiason (who also went to a SB):

McNabb: +1.5 Passer rating, -2% Completion percentage, -0.170 YPA

Essiason: +1.66 Passer rating, -0.6% Completion Percentage, +0.200 YPA


Kurt Warner fared much better than I thought he would, and this only solidified his status as one of the 5 most efficient QBs who ever played (or at least since Montana; like I said: I didn't research before the Montana era).
John Elway was actually BELOW AVERAGE in all three categories.

 

[mem49er]

Very cool post, you make a great point. As the game changes with rules and schemes, it is more valid to compare how one does against his contemporaries. I rep you, sir!

 

[NinerSickness]

Thanks mem. I still don't understand what all this stuff like "rep" means, but I'm sure I'll pick it up over the next decade or so.

 

[numone9er]

Wow, i didn't realize Young would b e at the top of each category. I guess that goes to show the doubters how good he really was. I could see the argument that he didn't start for as many years as the others, but still solid numbers.

 

[MW49ers5]

So I posted this on the old ESPN forum a long time ago, and I figured I'd post it here too. Actually, the "Forever Young" video got me thinking about this again...

Comparing QBs from different eras is extremely flawed. However, much like in baseball, I think a lot can be leared by comparing QBs to the AVERAGE NUMBERS a QB put up in the particular span of his career. So after days of adding, I determined the average competion percentage, YPA and passer rating of an NFL QB during the span of the careers of the following players: Tom Brady, John Elway, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Kurt Warner & Steve Young. (alphabetical order) I didn't want to add all the numbers up as far back as Unitas, Otto, etc so apologies to them.
Note: I did this in 2009, so these need to be updated by 1 season for the 3 active QBs on the list. Here are the average numbers for each of those players' careers:

Name, Passer Rating, Completion Percentage, YPA:

*Brady: 85.489 61.380 7.103
Elway: 79.907 58.037 7.131
Favre: 86.585 60.302 7.073
Manning: 85.373 61.160 7.137
Marino: 80.062 58.052 7.128
Montana: 77.984 57.132 7.150
Warner: 85.062 60.977 7.098
Young: 80.012 58.081 7.103

Best Passer ratings VS the AVG:

1: Young: +16.788
2: Montana: +14.316
3. Manning: +9.827
4. Warner: +8.638
5. *Brady: +7.811
6. Marinio: +6.338
7. Favre: +0.15
8. Elway: -0.007

Best Completion Percentage VS the AVG:

1. Young: +6.200
2. Montana: +6.068
3. Warner: +4.527
4. Manning: +3.637
5. *Brady: +1.968
6. Favre: +1.700
7. Marino: +0.014
8. Elway: -0.012

Best YPA VS the AVG:

1. Young: +0.877
2. Warner: +0.852
3. Manning: +0.538
4. Montana: +0.417
5. Marino: +0.214
6. *Brady: +0.209
7. Favre: +0.007
8. Elway: -0.031


When I did this I also did McNabb to show how overrated he's been in his career and that he shouldn't be compared to HOFers, he should be compared to the likes of Boomer Essiason (who also went to a SB):

McNabb: +1.5 Passer rating, -2% Completion percentage, -0.170 YPA

Essiason: +1.66 Passer rating, -0.6% Completion Percentage, +0.200 YPA


Kurt Warner fared much better than I thought he would, and this only solidified his status as one of the 5 most efficient QBs who ever played (or at least since Montana; like I said: I didn't research before the Montana era).
John Elway was actually BELOW AVERAGE in all three categories.

Good Lord, Sickness!!! LoL!!

 

[mem49er]

Thanks mem. I still don't understand what all this stuff like "rep" means, but I'm sure I'll pick it up over the next decade or so.

Means hardly anything, but we're sports guys. We like stats, even if they're meaningless. :loco:

 

[MW49ers5]

Means hardly anything, but we're sports guys. We like stats, even if they're meaningless. :loco:

Profoundly stated! I rep you!

 

[mem49er]

Profoundly stated! I rep you!

muchas gracias!

 

[Bison645]

Not only do these stats show how good Montana and Young were, it also showcases the offense that Bill Walsh implemented. Its horrible how bad the past three regimes were to the history of this franchise.
Please Harbaugh, bring back the glory to the San Francisco offense.

 

[trancemeister]

Excellent post Sick! Most definitely rep worthy!

 

[threelittleturds]

For the average, did you mainly focus on the starters? Or did you also include back-ups who started for a few games while the starter was injured?

 

[tallglassofwater007]

Wow, i didn't realize Young would b e at the top of each category. I guess that goes to show the doubters how good he really was. I could see the argument that he didn't start for as many years as the others, but still solid numbers.

Young was an amazing QB. I think if he wins a second Superbowl (as the starter) he is considered top 5 all time. Even where he is at I would put him above guys like Marino and Manning.

 

[NinerSickness]

For the average, did you mainly focus on the starters? Or did you also include back-ups who started for a few games while the starter was injured?

If I remember correctly I did 1 QB for each team. Or I did the top 28 QBs because I started adding when there were only 28 teams. I hope the former. Like I said, I'll have to update this anyway 'cause Manning & Brady are still playing. I'll probably do it again in the offseason when I'm bored some time.

How do you "rep" someone? I'll have to start diong that.

 

[mem49er]

How do you "rep" someone? I'll have to start diong that.

There's a few buttons over under everyone's Avatar when they post. I think it's the one next to the icon that tells you if they're online or not.

 

[Giantsmojo]

For the average, did you mainly focus on the starters? Or did you also include back-ups who started for a few games while the starter was injured?

If I remember correctly I did 1 QB for each team. Or I did the top 28 QBs because I started adding when there were only 28 teams. I hope the former. Like I said, I'll have to update this anyway 'cause Manning & Brady are still playing. I'll probably do it again in the offseason when I'm bored some time.

How do you "rep" someone? I'll have to start diong that.

There is a button under the persons avatar with a check mark and an X, next to where it tells you if a person is on line or not.

 

[MHSL82]

For the average, did you mainly focus on the starters? Or did you also include back-ups who started for a few games while the starter was injured?

If I remember correctly I did 1 QB for each team. Or I did the top 28 QBs because I started adding when there were only 28 teams. I hope the former. Like I said, I'll have to update this anyway 'cause Manning & Brady are still playing. I'll probably do it again in the offseason when I'm bored some time.

How do you "rep" someone? I'll have to start diong that.

Go find a post by MHSL82 (make sure it isn't one you've already repped) and under the avatar there's a button that has a check mark and an X, next to where it tells you if a person is on line or not. Press that and under reason for rep type in the poster you want to rep.