Series Thread: Forecast Friday! Dolphins-Commanders: Is anyone giving Washington a chance?

[Stymietee]

Despite my early prediction that the bye week would be his last, there’s a growing belief that after a big loss to the Miami Dolphins is not very likely. Rivera recently said that he is “not worried” about his job security and that he “is focused on doing his job.” There are reports that he also has the support of new team owner Josh Harris who himself stated plans to evaluate Rivera’s status after the season. Under Rivera the Commanders have one NFC East title and his overall 12-year coaching record is 102-98-2. However, under closer scrutiny, his time in Washington has been one disappointing season after another. Following a first season 7-9 divisional title, he’s posted 7-10, 8-8-1, followed by the current 4-8 campaign and a growing cascade of fans and analysts criticizing Rivera for the team’s poor performances. After what seemed to be a promising 2-0 seasonal start, the Commanders have lost eight of their last ten games and are on a three-game losing streak entering Sunday’s game. They have also fired their defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer. Rivera is expected to run the defense for the rest of the season.

With Rivera now completely in charge of the defense, it will be well worth it to see how he and his charges fare against the 8-3 AFC East division-leading Dolphins who are predicted to win by 9 ½ points.


This will be just the 16th all-time meeting between the Dolphins and the Commanders. Miami leads 9-6.

The last meeting between the Dolphins and the Commanders was in Week 6 of the 2019 season, which resulted in a 17-16 victory for Washington. Neither team has won more than 2 games in a row in the 1st 15 matchups.





If Tommy DeVito can torch the Washington Commanders for three touchdowns, one shudders to think what Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins will do to them this weekend.

Over the past month, the Commanders are one of — if not the — worst defenses in football. So Rivera now has to figure out how to reverse his team’s defensive fortunes and that alone appears to be a near impossible task for one person.

Over that stretch, they’re 29th in defensive EPA (.101), 26th in EPA per dropback (.158), and 28th in EPA per rush (-.025). Certainly, the Commanders didn’t just now get bad at defense.

But the bottom has fallen out in the month since the Commanders dealt pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the trade deadline. (Their replacements in the starting lineup — Casey Toohill and James Smith-Williams, have a combined six sacks on the year.)

In their last four games, the Commanders have given up 6.4 yards per play (league average is 5.2), 5.1 yards per carry (4.2), 7.8 yards per pass attempt (6.5), and an opposing passer rating of 107.4 (90).

The Commanders do have 10 sacks in that span, but that stat is hollow. Nine of those 10 came against the dreadful Giants offensive line — a game that Washington still somehow lost.




Up next: A Dolphins offense that just scored 27 points against a very sound Jets defense. That same Dolphins offense has absolutely shredded bad defenses in 2023.

Washington, on the year, ranks last in defensive EPA (.076). They will become the fourth bottom-six EPA opponent the Dolphins have faced in 2023.

Against the other three, Miami has averaged 49.3 points, 562 yards per game, and 8.4 yards per play.

Those numbers are absolutely astounding.

But even if the Dolphins fall short of those averages, 40 points, 400+ yards, and 7+ yards per play are absolutely obtainable — particularly if running back De’Von Achane returns from a knee injury that’s bothered him for the better part of two months.



(BTW: (The EPA = Expected Points Added per Play.) Defensive EPA is a metric used in the NFL to measure the effectiveness of a team’s defense. A positive defensive EPA indicates that a team’s defense is performing well, while a negative Defensive EPA indicates that a team's defense is performing poorly. The metric is used to evaluate the impact of a team's defense on the outcome of a game or season.)





1. Who wins this game?

2. Final score?

3. Player(s) of the game?

4. Memorial moment, event, or play, that will have everyone talking on Sunday
night and Monday mornings?
5. Nobody wants to admit that they are hoping for losses, but are you really pulling for a win?

 

[gkekoa]

52-38 Dolphins

 

[Sportster 72]

I really interested to see what Rod does as a DC. Can he play zone and try to eliminate the explosive plays

 

[skinsdad62]

i think the dolphins win 48 to 20

we wont be able to control the speed of miami and they will score early and often

i cant see our front 4 getting pressure on tua which they need to do if they are going zone

 

[Rowdy]

I have a feeling the defense is gonna be better and that’ll piss all of us off.

 

[Hank Kingsley]

I'm optimistic. A couple of intentional 15's on Tyreek and Tua and you're logging! And maybe a long sideline roll taking out Mr. Peabody's Sherman if you are lucky.



I always watch Washington with my Sunday Ticket. Many times they come through for me against all odds. Then I can proudly sport my Skins beach towel in indigenous territory at the pool after my laps. My experience is that Washington can surprise you. On both sides of the ball.