Ranking D/ST in the Fantasy Food Chain

[averagejoe]

In the food chain of fantasy football research, Defenses and Special Teams or DST may rank somewhere in the strata of lower life forms such as insects. (Yet DST are arguably more important than the lowest fantasy life form – kickers, which may be bacteria on the same food chain.)

There’s always a few fantasy owners that pull the trigger way too early on a defense.

Perhaps just a hunch, but the early reach for a defense may be more about comfort and less about research.

Defenses can be tough to gauge. They need to play as a unit but may only be as good as their best piece.

Look at how dominant Luke Kuechly was for Carolina, until he wasn’t. And how that resonated throughout the entire Panthers’ defense. The same was true when Brian Urlacher was not part of the Bears’ unit.

Defenses can also run into slumps. Consider the 2016 Vikings who finished #1 overall. During the second half of the season, there were 8 defenses that played better.

Can fantasy experts be lazy with respect to ranking defenses?

Fantasy Pros Consensus rankings of 53 experts have 6 DST who could be #1. The next 8 DST have a "best" rank average of 4.2. No other fantasy position has this much variance.

Am I wasting too much time researching DST?

After all, DST are just insects. Compared to the other major predators in the fantasy food chain.

Plus a growing number of fantasy owners will stream defenses. But what if half the owners in the league decide to stream a DST?

Just as some fantasy owners may not be satisfied looking at a stat sheet or cheat sheet to determine their personal rankings, I feel compelled to do actual research on DST, rather than rely simply on last year's numbers.


The Evolution of D/ST Rankings

Most leagues will award defensive points for fewest yards allowed, fewest points, sacks and turnovers. Conversely, how do the offenses stack up? What offensive juggernauts pile on the yards? Run up the score? Are stingy in the sack department? And have a good grasp of not turning the ball over?

Imagine putting these offensive rankings into an NFL schedule to get the weakest or strongest opponents to a defense?

Imagine no more. Below is that ranking.

Wait. We're not done yet.

As mentioned previously, defenses can fluctuate from year to year. Maybe we need a 3-year window to see how fantasy defenses have finished, on average?

Here is that average:

​

Thanks for reading. Might look at bacteria next.

 

[averagejoe]

Well, crap.
I have the Offensive rankings reversed in the first chart.

I ranked the offenses from best to worst. So teams like the Saints, Pats and Falcons have LOW numbers.
The offensively inept offenses have higher numbers.

So in reality, Denver's DST plays some of the stronger offenses giving them the toughest schedule.
The Colts play some of the weaker offenses giving them the easiest schedule.

How embarrassing. Kill me now.

 

[TREFF]

We all still love you and your research Joe!

 

[MilkSpiller22]

We all still love you and your research Joe!

Speak for yourself!!

 

[MilkSpiller22]

In the food chain of fantasy football research, Defenses and Special Teams or DST may rank somewhere in the strata of lower life forms such as insects. (Yet DST are arguably more important than the lowest fantasy life form – kickers, which may be bacteria on the same food chain.)

There’s always a few fantasy owners that pull the trigger way too early on a defense.

Perhaps just a hunch, but the early reach for a defense may be more about comfort and less about research.

Defenses can be tough to gauge. They need to play as a unit but may only be as good as their best piece.

Look at how dominant Luke Kuechly was for Carolina, until he wasn’t. And how that resonated throughout the entire Panthers’ defense. The same was true when Brian Urlacher was not part of the Bears’ unit.

Defenses can also run into slumps. Consider the 2016 Vikings who finished #1 overall. During the second half of the season, there were 8 defenses that played better.

Can fantasy experts be lazy with respect to ranking defenses?

Fantasy Pros Consensus rankings of 53 experts have 6 DST who could be #1. The next 8 DST have a "best" rank average of 4.2. No other fantasy position has this much variance.

Am I wasting too much time researching DST?

After all, DST are just insects. Compared to the other major predators in the fantasy food chain.

Plus a growing number of fantasy owners will stream defenses. But what if half the owners in the league decide to stream a DST?

Just as some fantasy owners may not be satisfied looking at a stat sheet or cheat sheet to determine their personal rankings, I feel compelled to do actual research on DST, rather than rely simply on last year's numbers.


The Evolution of D/ST Rankings

Most leagues will award defensive points for fewest yards allowed, fewest points, sacks and turnovers. Conversely, how do the offenses stack up? What offensive juggernauts pile on the yards? Run up the score? Are stingy in the sack department? And have a good grasp of not turning the ball over?

Imagine putting these offensive rankings into an NFL schedule to get the weakest or strongest opponents to a defense?

Imagine no more. Below is that ranking.

Wait. We're not done yet.

As mentioned previously, defenses can fluctuate from year to year. Maybe we need a 3-year window to see how fantasy defenses have finished, on average?

Here is that average:

​

Thanks for reading. Might look at bacteria next.

Not sure if you want to really perfect an analysis that nobody really cares about. But I think it would be interesting to see what type of offense a team is. And average ball possession time. But defense is weird, the more a team passes against you the higher chances for turnover. But also the higher probability of the team scoring more points against you.

 

[averagejoe]

Not sure if you want to really perfect an analysis that nobody really cares about.

This is true.
But the idea behind it: since DST awards points for fewest yards, etc. then why not see which offenses already give those defenses a head start in those categories. Voilà

 

[averagejoe]

And average ball possession time.

And I already addressed this in another article.
To quote Jim Mora, "Doesn't mean diddly poo."
Houston and the Patriots ran the exact same number of offensive plays last year.
Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who did better with their possessions/opportunities.

 

[leftypower]

Not to diminish the effort but the real problem with a DST comparison such as this, as with all SOS, is that the data is based upon last yr. As you know, defenses change for a number of reasons - albeit there are a few you can count on as being at the top of the heap, yr end and yr out. Offenses are in the same boat - there's a number of them you can count on, the others will give mixed results. ....

 

[averagejoe]

is that the data is based upon last yr.

Agreed.
Which is another reason I provided the 3-year window.
Still doesn't mean that the Colts will jump from 28th to 10th. Or will it?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

And I already addressed this in another article.
To quote Jim Mora, "Doesn't mean diddly poo."
Houston and the Patriots ran the exact same number of offensive plays last year.
Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who did better with their possessions/opportunities.

Ok, I have a defensive research for you. If you are willing to take it, pretty much for shits and giggles since nobody cares.

Defensive turnovers compared to the teams offense points scored

Defensive points scored against /yards against compared to offensive run%

 

[averagejoe]

Defensive turnovers compared to the teams offense points scored

Defensive points scored against /yards against compared to offensive run%

I'm not sure I understand what you want?
So you want to see if an offense scored after their defense got a turnover?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I'm not sure I understand what you want?
So you want to see if an offense scored after their defensive got a turnover?

No, I want to see if there is a correlation between high scoring offenses and their defenses getting a lot of turnovers( besides me just thinking there is)

And whether a team that runs a lot can control the ball enough for their defenses to average significantly less points and yards against.

Basically, I am looking to see how accurately a teams offense can predict a teams defense

 

[averagejoe]

That may take time to research.
I'm willing if I have time.

Basically, I am looking to see how accurately a teams offense can predict a teams defense

To this point, this is one reason I picked the Eagles DST last season to break out.
Chip Kelly's offense was on and off the field so fast the Eagles D was gassed in 2015.
With Kelly gone and a more balanced approach, I figured the D was be much better. One of the few things I got right last season.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

That may take time to research.
I'm willing if I have time.

To this point, this is one reason I picked the Eagles DST last season to break out.
Chip Kelly's offense was on and off the field so fast the Eagles D was gassed in 2015.
With Kelly gone and a more balanced approach, I figured the D was be much better. One of the few things I got right last season.

Thanks. But don't feel obliged to do this research. Anything is Loren important fantasy wise than this.

 

[leftypower]

Agreed.
Which is another reason I provided the 3-year window.
Still doesn't mean that the Colts will jump from 28th to 10th. Or will it?

Well, in my mind including three yrs of the past, doesn't do much to change things - - unless you include a factor for improvement (or decline) to the present (not an average). That may get you closer to what you are gunning for.
Hope I'm understanding this correctly.

 

[TKOSpikes]

No, I want to see if there is a correlation between high scoring offenses and their defenses getting a lot of turnovers( besides me just thinking there is)

And whether a team that runs a lot can control the ball enough for their defenses to average significantly less points and yards against.

Basically, I am looking to see how accurately a teams offense can predict a teams defense

It can't. And to answer Joe, yes, you're wasting your time but not the reader's time. Prospective is always a good outline.

But DST has too many intangibles. You never know when a Tyreek Hill shows up. You can't dictate a starting LT and WR being hurt, giving the DST more sacks/turnovers. You can't tell how new schemes/teammates effect the group until you see it. And matchups are everything.