Manning chooses Broncos

[freaak]

you might not consider some of the catches "circus" but there were several poorly placed balls that the receiver had to use athletic ability to haul in the reception. I dont want to speak for IMAC but this might be what he is referring to?

Your're correct. How silly of me to forget all those leaping catches Vernon made.

 

[clyde_carbon]

You can ignore those 2 plays and pick 2 that Smith missed himself like I mentioned. It is just easier to pick 2 we all can remember easily that were bad plays due to no fault of Smith.

Of you can ignore it all together and he had a 91 Rating with all the drops. 93 is only an avg number of drops.

 

[imac_21]

Are you going to claim he had an abnormal number of dropped INTs?

If not we can add an equal % of INTs to every QB.

We do know he had an abnormal number of dropped passes by his targets.

Frank Gore was 28th in yards per rush and was little factor in the passing game. NOT a good year.

Vernon was 9th in yards with Gates 10th missing games. We didn't pass a lot but I can only say Vernon had a good year even with the playoff great plays. Not the roll he was on 2009-10.

I'm not claiming he had an abnormal amount of dropped interceptions. I'm claiming he didn't have an abnormal amount of penalties taking away TDs or interceptions that bounced of receivers hands. Why should we count those at positive plays for him? You want to say he was very good comparing him to the league totals, are you going to make the same adjustments to every QBs numbers? How many interceptions did Mark Sanchez have that bounced off his receivers hands? How many TDs did Matt Moore have called because of penalties? If you don't include those, don't include Smith's.

I don't care where Gore ranked in league average. He was 6th in yards rushing. That's the most important stat for a RB. Does this argument sound familiar? You dismissed stats where Smith was below average and focused on one where he was great.

Vernon was 9th in yards. That is top 10. Are you going to argue that Gates was better than Davis last year? Where does Davis rank if you factor in his playoff stats and add them to his regular season stats and compare those to the other TEs?

Did you look at the QBs who finished slightly below Smith in yards and TDs and account for games they missed? For example, Smith threw for 53 more yards than Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson only played 15 games. Do you think if he played that 16th game he would have thrown for 54 yards?

How about Carson Palmer? He was about 400 yards short of Smith but only played 10 games. Do you think he would have had those 400 yards in an extra 10 games?

Colt McCoy is 400 yards behind in 13 games. Given that he averaged over 200 yards per game, I think it's safe to say he would have thrown for those 400 yards in the 3 games he missed.

How about Matt Schaub? He missed 6 games and was just under 700 yards behind Smith. Could he have averaged a hair over 100 yards per game?

Cutler missed 6 games and finished about 800 yards behind. Could he have made that up? I think so.

So if you want to argue Gates should have finished ahead of Davis, the 19th place spot Smith held in yards passing just fell to 24th. He actually ranked 27th in yards per game.

That seems similar to where Gore ranked in yards per rush.

 

[jayviabay]

Your're correct. How silly of me to forget all those leaping catches Vernon made.

dont forget the 7-10 yard slants that were thrown to Crabtree's back shoulder that he had to contort his body and barely make the catches with fingertips... Is it fair to say maybe you didnt get to see all the games or have selective memory?

 

[imac_21]

You can ignore those 2 plays and pick 2 that Smith missed himself like I mentioned. It is just easier to pick 2 we all can remember easily that were bad plays due to no fault of Smith.

Of you can ignore it all together and he had a 91 Rating with all the drops. 93 is only an avg number of drops.

I don't want to ignore them. You introduced them. Now I want you to find all the plays where he was either bailed out by his receiver or had an interception dropped.

Then I want you to do the same for every quarterback that played last year. If you feel those two plays are worth including, then all similar plays, for all QBs are worth including in your stats.

It's like getting 99% on a math test because you forgot to carry the 1 somewhere and got one question wrong and claiming you SHOULD have aced it when you guessed right 6 times.

 

[imac_21]

That's just silly, Niners WRs don't make circus catches.

Don't think there were any dropped INTs, for that matter.

So there were no passes all season where you thought "man, we're lucky that wasn't picked."

 

[ViperVisor]

You dismissed stats where Smith was below average and focused on one where he was great.

No.

Some of those stats that were not good factor into QB rating. They exist and I didn't change them. With those he still had a very good year in large part to the INT% being outstanding.


And what the hell are you going with this list of gross stats. I know what you are doing. Side tracking a discussion you have little evidence to counter what I am saying.

QB rating is a rate stat. Having more yards doesn't make you better. Like batting avg is more important than hits.

 

[freaak]

dont forget the 7-10 yard slants that were thrown to Crabtree's back shoulder that he had to contort his body and barely make the catches with fingertips... Is it fair to say maybe you didnt get to see all the games or have selective memory?

First, a slant requiring a circus catch? If you can offer visual evidence to support that, I'll happily review it.

Second, I see every game, don't believe in religion so my Sunday's always free.

I'm not going to speak to my memory, I'm getting old.

 

[jayviabay]

VIPER,

Could you explain to me why Eli is in your "great" category but alex is in the "very good" one?

Eli had 13 more TDs to INTs compared to Alex's 12
Alex had a .3 higher comp % compared to Eli
Eli had only a 2.8 higher QB rate than Alex

What is the deciding factor that CLEARLY separates the two?

 

[freaak]

So there were no passes all season where you thought "man, we're lucky that wasn't picked."

There were passes that fit that description, but again I wouldn't necessarily categorize those as dropped INTs. If a defender doesn't get a hand on it, I'm not screaming at the TV "you almost threw a pick, Alex!" It's an incomplete pass, and we move on.

 

[jayviabay]

First, a slant requiring a circus catch? If you can offer visual evidence to support that, I'll happily review it.

Second, I see every game, don't believe in religion so my Sunday's always free.

I'm not going to speak to my memory, I'm getting old.

LOL, i hear you, im going to review my dvr recordings so i can tell you the exact game and qtr. Off the top of my head i want to reference the Lions game for one of the slants that crabs made...

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

The only think Alex had a great yr on was comeback wins and TO ratio.

Everything else was average to below average. End of discussion.

 

[freaak]

The only think Alex had a great yr on was comeback wins and TO ratio.

Everything else was average to below average. End of discussion.

I'll take it!

 

[imac_21]

No.

Some of those stats that were not good factor into QB rating. They exist and I didn't change them. With those he still had a very good year in large part to the INT% being outstanding.


And what the hell are you going with this list of gross stats. I know what you are doing. Side tracking a discussion you have little evidence to counter what I am saying.

QB rating is a rate stat. Having more yards doesn't make you better. Like batting avg is more important than hits.

You said Smith was "very good" this year based on his numbers relative to the numbers developed from every pass thrown this year. Now you're going to tinker with Smith's numbers to improve (while ignoring those that would weaken them) and ignore the same possibilities for all other passes thrown?

When you say that the league average QB rating was ##.#, are you including Matt Moore, Matt Schaub and Aaron Rodgers?

If you are, then you have to account for all the TDs they lost due to penalties, and all interceptions they threw that bounced off a receiver's hands. As well as doing the same for every other QB who threw a pass this year.

When did I say having more yards impacts rating?

Although I'll ask you this:

If you throw 100 passes. Of those 100 passes 7 are TDs and 2 are interceptions. You complete 60 of those passes for 674 yards.

I also throw 100 passes for 7 TDs and 2 INTs with 60 completions, but I throw for 789 yards.

Who has the better rating?

 

[ViperVisor]

VIPER,

Could you explain to me why Eli is in your "great" category but alex is in the "very good" one?

Eli had 13 more TDs to INTs compared to Alex's 12
Alex had a .3 higher comp % compared to Eli
Eli had only a 2.8 higher QB rate than Alex

What is the deciding factor that CLEARLY separates the two?

Your first stat is disingenuous. Despite Smith much better at limiting INTs.
Eli was much better at getting more yards and TDs. And was carrying a larger load. That separated Smith's very good year from Eli's great.

 

[ViperVisor]

You said Smith was "very good" this year based on his numbers relative to the numbers developed from every pass thrown this year. Now you're going to tinker with Smith's numbers to improve (while ignoring those that would weaken them) and ignore the same possibilities for all other passes thrown?

When you say that the league average QB rating was ##.#, are you including Matt Moore, Matt Schaub and Aaron Rodgers?

If you are, then you have to account for all the TDs they lost due to penalties, and all interceptions they threw that bounced off a receiver's hands. As well as doing the same for every other QB who threw a pass this year.

When did I say having more yards impacts rating?

Although I'll ask you this:

If you throw 100 passes. Of those 100 passes 7 are TDs and 2 are interceptions. You complete 60 of those passes for 674 yards.

I also throw 100 passes for 7 TDs and 2 INTs with 60 completions, but I throw for 789 yards.

Who has the better rating?

I can only accurate adjust for drops. The thing about Ginn's 2 plays was for fun. I already said throw that away if you don't want to open the extreme bad luck can of worms.

What you can not throw away is If you adjust for drops Smith is helped more than anyone but 1 team.

 

[imac_21]

I can only accurate adjust for drops. The thing about Ginn's 2 plays was for fun. I already said throw that away if you don't want to open the extreme bad luck can of worms.

What you can not throw away is If you adjust for drops Smith is helped more than anyone but 1 team.

IF you adjust for drops, adjust them for all teams.

And I told you, I don't want to throw away the Ginn plays. I want you to include those types of plays for EVERY team.

 

[ViperVisor]

IF you adjust for drops, adjust them for all teams.

That is a waste of time. It is not important who exactly Smith passes in Comp% if you adjust for all.

What is important is that he was solid in that area with the drops anyhow.

The only other QB with team drops in the worse half that ended the year top 10 in QB rating was Rodgers.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Are you going to claim he had an abnormal number of dropped INTs?

If not we can add an equal % of INTs to every QB.

We do know he had an abnormal number of dropped passes by his targets.

Frank Gore was 28th in yards per rush and was little factor in the passing game. NOT a good year.

Vernon was 9th in yards with Gates 10th missing games. We didn't pass a lot but I can only say Vernon had a good year even with the playoff great plays. Not the roll he was on 2009-10.

That's awfully selective stat selection. Ranking in YPA means very little as third down backs tend to have a pretty high YPA. Or are Ben Tate and CJ Spillman great RBs? Toby Gerhart? Of RBs with 200+ carries, Gore was 12th. Still not great, but at least relevant to the discussion.

Incidentally, if we look at all players for passing, Smith was 40th in YPA. So much for that theory.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

dont forget the 7-10 yard slants that were thrown to Crabtree's back shoulder that he had to contort his body and barely make the catches with fingertips... Is it fair to say maybe you didnt get to see all the games or have selective memory?

Crabtree's extraordinarily long arms helped account for several receptions on high throws that would have been more difficult for other players. Impossible to say what would have happened, but I think Crabtree's ability to extend for high balls limited what could easily have been incompletions or balls that were tipped and INT.

But this is a silly discussion.