Manning chooses Broncos

[Flyingiguana]

manningham looks faster on the field than crabtree does. he isn't #1 material, but neither is crabtree.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

But it isn't better than an interception - but then again, it appears Alex has a different definition of what is risky/covered than we do. I'll defer to him because he plays and I don't, but I think he could defer to Manning, who throws to covered players for gains regularly.

That's true. Given that Alex through two INTs to Crabtree on 114 targets - neither on balls that Crabtree could have done anything about - it doesn't seem like that was a tremendous risk. If Smith can place a ball accurately.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

You want to run that opinion past Vernon? How is that Alex could complete several perfect long balls to Vernon in the last 2 games yet basically none to Crabs all year? Alex showed he can make the throws. Did Crabs ever show that he can get open?

I addressed this above, but Smith has shown that he can throw one deep pass consistently well: the deep seam route to Davis. He really struggles to throw deep along the sideline. To preempt the counter-argument, doing so once against the Giants doesn't eliminate the numerous poor throws to this area of the field over the rest of the year. In terms of throwing the ball, that is by far Smith's biggest area of concern, and part of the reason when we can't stretch the field.

 

[Flyingiguana]

he hit what half his deep sideline throws last season?

 

[Crimsoncrew]

he hit what half his deep sideline throws last season?

Far fewer.

 

[spacedoodoopistol]

90 isn't great anymore but it is still very good.

Alex Smith had a very good year.

Viper, the thing is you have to adjust a bit for circumstances and situation. As far as I can tell, the Niners offense is one of the more friendly offenses for a QB to operate in......a good QB *should* put up a 90 rating, and I don't think you should give too much credit when they do so. As far as I can tell, passing plays in this system don't give Smith a huge number of options and decisions to make.....generally the design and motion is all geared toward getting one primary guy open, which is supposed to give the QB a good look and good window to get it to him, and when that fails he goes to the checkdown or "only where the WR can get it" type throw to other option.

A 90 rating in this system isn't quite like a 90 in the Steelers offense, for example, where Big Ben has longer progressions, more routes to cycle through - more options, but maybe none that are quite as good a look. How I see things.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Viper, the thing is you have to adjust a bit for circumstances and situation. As far as I can tell, the Niners offense is one of the more friendly offenses for a QB to operate in......a good QB *should* put up a 90 rating, and I don't think you should give too much credit when they do so. As far as I can tell, passing plays in this system don't give Smith a huge number of options and decisions to make.....generally the design and motion is all geared toward getting one primary guy open, which is supposed to give the QB a good look and good window to get it to him, and when that fails he goes to the checkdown or "only where the WR can get it" type throw to other option.

A 90 rating in this system isn't quite like a 90 in the Steelers offense, for example, where Big Ben has longer progressions, more routes to cycle through - more options, but maybe none that are quite as good a look. How I see things.

No that's a fair assesment. This I can agree with.

 

[BINGO]

No that's a fair assesment. This I can agree with.

That was indeed a very good assessment.

 

[ViperVisor]

Viper, the thing is you have to adjust a bit for circumstances and situation. As far as I can tell, the Niners offense is one of the more friendly offenses for a QB to operate in......a good QB *should* put up a 90 rating, and I don't think you should give too much credit when they do so. As far as I can tell, passing plays in this system don't give Smith a huge number of options and decisions to make.....generally the design and motion is all geared toward getting one primary guy open, which is supposed to give the QB a good look and good window to get it to him, and when that fails he goes to the checkdown or "only where the WR can get it" type throw to other option.

A 90 rating in this system isn't quite like a 90 in the Steelers offense, for example, where Big Ben has longer progressions, more routes to cycle through - more options, but maybe none that are quite as good a look. How I see things.

Yes, it was a managed offense most of the time that is what you typically do when you are not behind and before you get to the redzone.
We aren't sure about how other QBs look in what we did last year. Only Smith played.
What about the circumstances of highly questionable OL and WR?

If all you do was keep everything the same with personnel but those guys dropped an avg number of passes.

His Completion% goes from 61.3 to 63.6

QB Rating 90.7 to 93.5

With the stuff that Smith himself too often failed to do that could of easily happened.

If you on top of the drops you change 2 Ginn plays. The INT tip and the Chop block killing his TD. QB Rating is then 96.4


If Smith can help himself some and get some help we can have a great season in the passing game.
He isn't a great QB but with some help he can have a great season.
All I am expecting is SOME help.

 

[imac_21]

Yes, it was a managed offense most of the time that is what you typically do when you are not behind and before you get to the redzone.
We aren't sure about how other QBs look in what we did last year. Only Smith played.
What about the circumstances of highly questionable OL and WR?

If all you do was keep everything the same with personnel but those guys dropped an avg number of passes.

His Completion% goes from 61.3 to 63.6

QB Rating 90.7 to 93.5

With the stuff that Smith himself too often failed to do that could of easily happened.

If you on top of the drops you change 2 Ginn plays. The INT tip and the Chop block killing his TD. QB Rating is then 96.4


If Smith can help himself some and get some help we can have a great season in the passing game.
He isn't a great QB but with some help he can have a great season.
All I am expecting is SOME help.

Are you going to factor in dropped INTs and circus catches his receivers made as well? Or are you only going to add plays that went poorly and would have improved his numbers?

 

[ViperVisor]

Are you going to factor in dropped INTs and circus catches his receivers made as well? Or are you only going to add plays that went poorly and would have improved his numbers?

Are you ever gonna accept the stats we do have that support Smith having a very good year?

And are you going to claim Smith had an abnormal number of circus catches with the corp he had?
Crabtree had 2 I can remember but was called out of bounds on both.

 

[imac_21]

Are you ever gonna accept the stats we do have that support Smith having a very good year?

And are you going to claim Smith had an abnormal number of circus catches with the corp he had?
Crabtree had 2 I can remember but was called out of bounds on both.

You took away one of his interceptions and gave him a TD. I think it's fair to include negative plays where he was bailed out.

How about the Kyle Williams TD where he went 50 something yards after the catch for a TD on a 4 yard throw? Did you take that away from him?

And there were dropped interceptions. Sure it was bad luck that Ginn tipped that ball up for a pick, but there were dropped INTs too. If you're going to play the "what could have happened" game, you have to play it with positive and negative plays.

And unless you can convince me it was 1996, it wasn't a very good year. If Smith had a very good year, then so did Gore (top 10 in yards, 12th in TDs) and so did Davis (ranked only with TEs).

So how cone our offense didn't have a very good year? We had a very good year from our QB, TE and RB? Is WR that important (if so, Crabtree ranked above average for WRs in catches, and near average for starting WRs in yards).

Well shit, if we had very good play out of 3 of 5 (OL was not "very good" either) position groups, and good play out of Crabtree, then our offense must have been very good. If Alex qualifies as very good for his great INT totals and being above average to slightly below average in everything else, then we must have had a very good offense.

 

[imac_21]

Are you ever gonna accept the stats we do have that support Smith having a very good year?

And are you going to claim Smith had an abnormal number of circus catches with the corp he had?
Crabtree had 2 I can remember but was called out of bounds on both.

Are you claiming Smith had an abnormal (not above average, but abnormal) number of drops and that the TWO plays of Ginn you want to change are abnormally higher than the rest of the league? Is it abnormally high to have a WR miss 1 catchable and have it end up as an interception in the season? Is it abnormally high to have 1 TD called back for a penalty?

Or is it possible that those two situations happened to a bunch of QBs last season and changing them to positive plays would have impacted the QBs stats?

 

[ViperVisor]

Are you going to claim he had an abnormal number of dropped INTs?

If not we can add an equal % of INTs to every QB.

We do know he had an abnormal number of dropped passes by his targets.

Frank Gore was 28th in yards per rush and was little factor in the passing game. NOT a good year.

Vernon was 9th in yards with Gates 10th missing games. We didn't pass a lot but I can only say Vernon had a good year even with the playoff great plays. Not the roll he was on 2009-10.

 

[ViperVisor]

Are you claiming Smith had an abnormal (not above average, but abnormal) number of drops and that the TWO plays of Ginn you want to change are abnormally higher than the rest of the league? Is it abnormally high to have a WR miss 1 catchable and have it end up as an interception in the season? Is it abnormally high to have 1 TD called back for a penalty?

Or is it possible that those two situations happened to a bunch of QBs last season and changing them to positive plays would have impacted the QBs stats?

You can ignore those 2 plays and pick 2 that Smith missed himself like I mentioned. It is just easier to pick 2 we all can remember easily that were bad plays due to no fault of Smith.

Of you can ignore it all together and he had a 91 Rating with all the drops. 93 is only an avg number of drops.

 

[freaak]

Are you going to factor in dropped INTs and circus catches his receivers made as well? Or are you only going to add plays that went poorly and would have improved his numbers?

That's just silly, Niners WRs don't make circus catches.

Don't think there were any dropped INTs, for that matter.

 

[threelittleturds]

That's just silly, Niners WRs don't make circus catches.

Don't think there were any dropped INTs, for that matter.

I think it was against the Bucs where they dropped either 2 or 3 INTs on some poorly thrown passes by Smith. There were quite a few dropped INTs, just like there were quite a few dropped TDs.

 

[freaak]

I think it was against the Bucs where they dropped either 2 or 3 INTs on some poorly thrown passes by Smith. There were quite a few dropped INTs, just like there were quite a few dropped TDs.

There was a throw that the Bucs DB may have picked had he located the ball, and another that the Bucs DB defended (or defended by the SF receiver if you prefer), but I wouldn't categorize those as dropped INTs.

 

[jayviabay]

I think it was against the Bucs where they dropped either 2 or 3 INTs on some poorly thrown passes by Smith. There were quite a few dropped INTs, just like there were quite a few dropped TDs.

correct sir.

 

[jayviabay]

you might not consider some of the catches "circus" but there were several poorly placed balls that the receiver had to use athletic ability to haul in the reception. I dont want to speak for IMAC but this might be what he is referring to?