AFC West Roundup

[cdumler7]

I can see why they did. 7-9 and 12-4. Best 2-year sequence in a really long time for the Raiders. My hope is JDR gets as complacent there as he did in Denver as the DC. I have said it more times than I care to count: the 2014 defense will go down in NFL history as the single biggest waste of defensive talent EVER. Wade proved it in 2015. Look for JDR to be on top of his game in 2017 (as I've already hinted I suspect a natural drop off from last year either way) but in the out years my guess is Raiders fans will be anticipating greatness that simply never arrives.

I actually think the best work that Del Rio did in Denver was the 2013 season. I know the rankings were not great and they gave up a ton of points but he actually had to be creative because of injuries. We saw it in the playoffs that he did a great job of mixing things up to keep guys like Brady confused at times and have the defense make enough plays to get us to the Super Bowl.

 

[iknowftbll]

I actually think the best work that Del Rio did in Denver was the 2013 season. I know the rankings were not great and they gave up a ton of points but he actually had to be creative because of injuries. We saw it in the playoffs that he did a great job of mixing things up to keep guys like Brady confused at times and have the defense make enough plays to get us to the Super Bowl.

I actually agree. Statistically the 2012 season was better, but with the patchwork unit he had to work with in 2013 the get the kind of output he did was actually pretty good. Especially since by the last two weeks of the season and through the playoffs they were looking really good even. To this day it makes me wonder how good that team would have been had it not lost Von Miller, Wolfe and CHJ. I'm cautious about speculation because nobody can ever prove something that didn't actually happen, but seeing the difference those 3 players made in 2015 it really isn't unreasonable to wonder if 19-0 would have been possible that year.

That injury riddled year for the defense combined with JDR's 3-1 stint as interim HC during what was easily the most difficult 4 week period for any team in the league that season really had me in his corner and excited as all hell as 2014 approached. I just never felt the unit was dominant that year. If I'm not mistaken they were ranked pretty high against the pass and run alike but the lazy scheming allowed a high conversion rate on 3rd down and they weren't much better stopping scores than the 2013 unit.

2012: it happens. A lesser team gets hot and takes it all the way.
2013: it happens. Loads of injuries scuttle what may be a historic season.
2014: Totally a lost year. My memory of the Broncos that year is so defined by frustration that it's easy to forget they went 12-4 that season! I actually enjoyed this most recent year's 9-7 season despite our offense being so awful. At least no matter how frustrated I got watching them go 3 and out I knew they were trying!

 

[GeekSportsFan]

Life is no longer worth living. My beloved Chargers have left town for the Evil Empire up north and rumors are swirling that the Raiders may move to San Diego. Time to take a cue from Cross Canadian Ragweed.

 

[iknowftbll]

^ The Chargers moving is a head scratcher. I know they weren't happy with the way the city approached the stadium situation, but do they really think they have a market in L.A? L.A. only supports teams that are perennial contenders (or perceived to be). There may be a brief honeymoon period where they tolerate a sub-.500 season or two but if the Chargers aren't in the playoffs every single year after that (especially when they move into the new stadium with the Rams) L.A. fans won't support them.

 

[GeekSportsFan]

As long as the Spanos family controls the Chargers, they are doomed to season after season of mediocrity. They will wither and die in L.A.

 

[iknowftbll]

You know it seems the entire division was pretty quiet in FA this season. No major signings anywhere in the AFC West. No ground breaking deals. No headline grabbing agreements. About the closest we've come is all the speculation about Tony Romo and honestly I can't say I honestly ever believed he'd be the Broncos QB.

Now obviously the draft is still ahead of us, and plenty of rookies can come in and make an impact. But looking at teams like the Chiefs and the Raiders I have to wonder if that's a realistic expectation. The Raiders defense has some pieces but they're also missing enough that it's not really realistic to believe they can shore up that unit through the draft. Even before Carr went down and that team was still in the mix for the #1 seed in the playoffs I doubted they were a serious contender. They have to fix a run defense and pass defense alike. That's hard to do in one off season.

The Chiefs may look a little more favorable because they're not completely broken on either side of the all. They got solid production in the points department despite ranking in the lower tiers of the league in yards on both sides of the ball. But will they be able to mount any semblance of a pass rush? Will their patchwork running backs be able to continue to keep the offense afloat?

The Broncos signed players in areas of need, but how good will any of these guys be in addressing team weaknesses from last year? Perhaps the most exciting signing was Leary, and he's one man on a 5 man unit!

It makes me wonder...The AFC West had two teams at 12-4 with the Broncos a respectable 9-7 in third place. But will the top of this division look as competitive again this year? It's hard for a team to replicate a 12-4 season. Teams like the Patriots or Manning's Colts and Broncos are really an exception to what's more typical. It shouldn't surprise anyone if the Raiders and Chiefs both fail to reach that record again. It shouldn't surprise anyone if they fail to reach the playoffs even. As for the Broncos they are the biggest wild card in the division right now. With the overhaul on the coaching staff there's no telling what to expect. The good news is the defense will not likely be drastically different that the past couple seasons so that should keep them afloat early. They may be able to catch some teams off guard early too. But a fast start in 2016 wasn't enough to keep them in the picture all season.

This is going to be a really interesting year in the AFC West. I am really looking forward to the coming season. I tend to be optimistic about these things. I don't know that this team is a SB contender but I think they are right back in the playoff mix.

 

[Mingo]

@iknowftbll

Great observations as usual Ikno. I really love what you do here in this thread - I can't focus on the Raiders or Chiefs until the Broncos are ready to play them, but I get your distilled analysis - it is much appreciated.

I think the Raiders overachieved last year - so I expect them to fall back. The Chiefs will get to very good - as they do every year - and not make the next step champions make. The Chargers will be homeless - wonderers.

The Broncos have a very strong coaching staff - all star quality - and in JE a guy who is driven to compete and win (still amazing). I have to think the Broncos have a plan for the LT slot - or else they will be reduced to throwing the ball as a surprise event and why do that when you have so much salary invested in the WRs?

I think the defense of these Broncos becomes even more aggressive next year - in the frequency of the blitz packages. This is why I think Von Miller has a monster season - JE wants his top salary guy going after the QB - and he has a stock of 4 safeties who can fill in on the pass coverage Miller has been sent to do under Wade Phillips.

 

[iknowftbll]

@iknowftbll

Great observations as usual Ikno. I really love what you do here in this thread - I can't focus on the Raiders or Chiefs until the Broncos are ready to play them, but I get your distilled analysis - it is much appreciated.

I think the Raiders overachieved last year - so I expect them to fall back. The Chiefs will get to very good - as they do every year - and not make the next step champions make. The Chargers will be homeless - wonderers.

The Broncos have a very strong coaching staff - all star quality - and in JE a guy who is driven to compete and win (still amazing). I have to think the Broncos have a plan for the LT slot - or else they will be reduced to throwing the ball as a surprise event and why do that when you have so much salary invested in the WRs?

I think the defense of these Broncos becomes even more aggressive next year - in the frequency of the blitz packages. This is why I think Von Miller has a monster season - JE wants his top salary guy going after the QB - and he has a stock of 4 safeties who can fill in on the pass coverage Miller has been sent to do under Wade Phillips.

The coaching staff is what gives me the greatest hope for this season, especially on offense. McCoy got a lot of the offenses he coached while he was here before, and some of those years that was a unit nearly totally void of talent. This year he'll have his work cut out for him, but it's not like this unit if a long way from competing. There are two young QBs who have some serious potential (but will need some good mentoring to tap into that potential) and top tier talent at WR, with decent talent at RB and TE. They appear to have shored up the line to some degree, but we are kidding ourselves if we think this unit won't be the weakness on offense again.

 

[SpringStein]

I can agree with this - except decent talent at TE? Compared to?

 

[iknowftbll]

I can agree with this - except decent talent at TE? Compared to?

The talent is definitely there. I have a feeling McCoy is going to tap into Green's potential a lot more than Kubiak and Fox did. I think both Derby and Heuerman still may be a vital part of the offense under McCoy as well. The potential is there. Keep in mind, when Manning arrived in Denver everyone asked "who's he going to throw too" because guys like DT and Decker weren't the big names they were yet. The talent is there, it just may take the right coach to tap it.

 

[58crash]

I love you Iknow but you need to take off the orange shades .

 

[58crash]

We are so going to suck . Sorry sometimes the truth hurts .

The D is not going to be no were near the same . This going to be a train wreck .

 

[MileHigh64]

The talent is definitely there. I have a feeling McCoy is going to tap into Green's potential a lot more than Kubiak and Fox did. I think both Derby and Heuerman still may be a vital part of the offense under McCoy as well. The potential is there. Keep in mind, when Manning arrived in Denver everyone asked "who's he going to throw too" because guys like DT and Decker weren't the big names they were yet. The talent is there, it just may take the right coach to tap it.

Good ongoing thread, IKF! Honestly, I do think the tight end production will improve but not because Green gets going. The Broncos are likely going to tab a tight end in the draft. Coupled with Derby, I would project that this will be an improved position group for the Broncos in 2017. I'm just not sure the star of this group is even on the team yet.

 

[cdumler7]

Good ongoing thread, IKF! Honestly, I do think the tight end production will improve but not because Green gets going. The Broncos are likely going to tab a tight end in the draft. Coupled with Derby, I would project that this will be an improved position group for the Broncos in 2017. I'm just not sure the star of this group is even on the team yet.

Derby as a #2 TE could be a dangerous player. I don't like him as our #1 TE which is why I would love to see us use a high pick on this incredible TE class.

Really for the Broncos it comes down to 2 things...Do we get better production from the OL both run and pass blocking and then of course what do we get from the QB position? Can Lynch and/or Siemian take that next step and give us above average production? Or could Romo come in and be healthy and play back up to his old level? If the answer to both of those questions is yes then Broncos will have something special. If one of those is a no we could be in some trouble.

 

[iknowftbll]

Thanks, 58, but I just don't see this team as completely broken. And, despite the division looking pretty stout, the Broncos absolutely can compete with both the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Chiefs are beatable on both sides of the ball. It was just their year last year (within the division of course) and the Raiders have a long way to go on defense before they can be truly taken seriously.

As for the TE position it's just a hunch that I have. I have absolutely nothing solid to base this on but I'm guessing they're going to be a much bigger part of the passing game this year. I also agree with CD: now may be a good time to draft a stud TE to round out that position group.

In my estimation it all hinges on that O line being able to produce at a level better than last year. If they can improve to mid-tier the offense will be light years better than last year's.

 

[cdumler7]

Thanks, 58, but I just don't see this team as completely broken. And, despite the division looking pretty stout, the Broncos absolutely can compete with both the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Chiefs are beatable on both sides of the ball. It was just their year last year (within the division of course) and the Raiders have a long way to go on defense before they can be truly taken seriously.

As for the TE position it's just a hunch that I have. I have absolutely nothing solid to base this on but I'm guessing they're going to be a much bigger part of the passing game this year. I also agree with CD: now may be a good time to draft a stud TE to round out that position group.

In my estimation it all hinges on that O line being able to produce at a level better than last year. If they can improve to mid-tier the offense will be light years better than last year's.

I guess my question is how has this team gotten worse for Crash? We lost the start Sly but brought in 2 guys for the NT position. Webster is obviously a blow to our special teams but defensively he didn't see the field a whole lot. OL wise I would say we have improved maybe 3 positions and gone down so far on one of them. QB wise we still have the same 2 guys that started last year. I would expect both after a year of getting some experience to show some improvement.

Defensively we lost Ware but he other than leadership wasn't really much actual help on the field.

Something else to keep in mind is we do get CJ Anderson back for the run game and Booker is another year away from his knee injury with some experience. So the RB group should be good with 2 healthy guys carrying the load. This is all without having gone to the draft, still have $20 million in cap space to spend at some point, and maybe a trade or two to still come.

With very little turnover team wise this is the same unit that went 9-7 and just barely missed the playoffs. Now I guess you can look at the coaching staff and say that could be a major difference. I know you are not a Vance Joseph fan at all so maybe that is the driving force behind your negative view of the team. And honestly can't blame you. We have no idea how a first time head coach will do plus a new OC, DC, and STC on the team. It worked out really well last time we changed all those positions but that usually isn't the norm for a brand new coaching staff.

 

[randymon]

IMHO I think the smart move is to trade pk 20 for Joe Thomas. He's arguably the best LT in NFL, Been basically injury free and started almost every game in career, has stated he would be open to Denver, has prob 3 good years left if he stays healthy, even though he has shown he goes 100% regardless, he is very motivated to win a Championship, Denver locks in the very critical LT spot and doesn't have to risk a # 1 pk on a guy that may not fill spot or is more than likely to need a few years, they free up that spot to go after a DL, LB ,RB Ol, Wr in rd two or trade down and get additional pks. I haven't given up on current Tes on roster and as admitted on here, it's a deep TE class so even 3rd rd you could find a solid guy . Getting Thomas solidifies not only LT but with Leary and Watson and hopefully Paradis comes back 100% and you have the nucleus now for a very good run game/pass pro that Trevor will flourish and when Lynch is ready and is able to fight Trevor for job in 2018, he's going to have the same opportunity to excel with this line. John Boy....go get him.

 

[cdumler7]

IMHO I think the smart move is to trade pk 20 for Joe Thomas. He's arguably the best LT in NFL, Been basically injury free and started almost every game in career, has stated he would be open to Denver, has prob 3 good years left if he stays healthy, even though he has shown he goes 100% regardless, he is very motivated to win a Championship, Denver locks in the very critical LT spot and doesn't have to risk a # 1 pk on a guy that may not fill spot or is more than likely to need a few years, they free up that spot to go after a DL, LB ,RB Ol, Wr in rd two or trade down and get additional pks. I haven't given up on current Tes on roster and as admitted on here, it's a deep TE class so even 3rd rd you could find a solid guy . Getting Thomas solidifies not only LT but with Leary and Watson and hopefully Paradis comes back 100% and you have the nucleus now for a very good run game/pass pro that Trevor will flourish and when Lynch is ready and is able to fight Trevor for job in 2018, he's going to have the same opportunity to excel with this line. John Boy....go get him.

I do agree that if at all possible with our 1st round pick go get Joe Thomas. There are some huge issues with this thought though.

1) From the sound of things teams have picked up quite a bit that the LT market is just on fire right now. Joe Staley for example is one of the guys the Broncos called about this offseason. He was available last year for a 1st round pick. The Broncos balked at that idea. This year they want a 1st round pick, 3rd round pick, and a 2018 mid round pick for his services. And he is just an average LT. So Browns are going to want more than that for a top of the line LT.

2) I'm not sure they have much motivation to move him at this point. They just spent big to fix the rest of the OL so now you are asking them to move their most valuable piece on the entire team. You don't usually fix all the other issues on the OL then get rid of your cornerstone piece. Kind of negates everything else you have done this offseason.

3) The Browns cap wise do not need to even come close to making this kid of deal. They still have the 2nd most cap space of any team even after taking most of Osweiler's contract on. They are struggling to meet the cap floor and so this kind of trade actually hurts them some in having to spend that much more money.

4) Finally not sure they are wanting to add another draft pick. This year and next year they are completely loaded when it comes to being able to do whatever they want in the draft. So not sure adding another draft pick is a huge motivator for them right now. I could see maybe a key player being traded. They liked Shaq Barrett in the past. Maybe they are willing to take on Aqib Talib to add to their defense. There again though not sure I like the idea of weakening 2 of our strongest positions on the team. Barrett yes I'm willing to move on but Talib not yet.

Again I would love to see a trade get done and make sure that LT spot is secured. It is that one glaring hole that is just staring all Bronco fans in the face. My one big hope is maybe just maybe there is an older veteran cut later in the offseason process. There is still talk that Jason Peters is not guaranteed a roster spot with the Eagles. They really like their depth on the OL and feel like Peters with his contract could be a movable piece and not destroy the team. Elway just said yesterday for Bronco fans to not panic about that LT spot. They are still working to get it fixed and they have a plan. So I'm trying to exercise patience in waiting to see what Elway can pull off.

 

[Orange Crush77]

Give them our first next year for him

 

[cdumler7]

Give them our first next year for him

I wouldn't mind that move either. Again though I'm just not sure the motivation is there for them to move him right now for anything less than say our 1st this year and 1st next year. That is way too high a price but with all the draft picks and cap space they have plus just fixing their OL I just think he is pretty close to off the market unless they get blown away by a deal.