AFC West Roundup

[cdumler7]

I'm starting to think Carr's finger is a bigger issue than first let on. He did pretty well when he came back in the 2nd half after hurting it but man I don't think I have seen Carr miss so many targets in a long time. Plays were there to be had and he just was off target. Yeah they were close enough that a WR should make a play on them but still when a WR has to adjust it leads to what we saw last night.

I honestly didn't know who to cheer for last night but found myself cheering for the Chiefs. As difficult of a path as it is to still win the division I'm still holding out hope that we can do it. The Chiefs and Raiders have been playing in a lot of close games lately so all we need is for some of those bounces to go the wrong way and for this team to turn it up a notch like we saw last year at this time of the season. Not saying it will work out or even that we will make the playoffs but we all knew this would be a bit of a transition year so to still be this close into the season in the toughest division in football is something at least for me I am impressed with.

Still that closing schedule does not look fun for the Broncos. The same could be said last year though as we had the Bengals in a big one at the end of the season then in the Playoffs of course Steelers, Patriots, and Panthers. All tough games but we found different ways to win them.

 

[58crash]

I've been MIA a lot lately because of work, but I've still followed the team and division. There really was no good outcome in last night's game. On the surface it would appear the Chiefs winning is better for the Broncos but that now gives them a 4-0 record in the AFC West so the Broncos have to pass them outright to win the division. Had the Raiders won they'd have been 11-2 and at least 2 ahead of the Broncos (maybe 3 if the Broncos lose this week) with a win over the Broncos already in the books. I can't recall another season where an 8-4 team has such a slim chance of winning its division despite being just a game and a half behind the first place team. At 8-4 the Broncos still are a legit playoff contender though, and my guess is they need to just finish 10-6 and they'll be in.

Yes there is always a good outcome I hope their teams are all black and Blue This morning ..I never watched but I hope it was a snot and bubbles type of game add in frozen field ...yes...

 

[58crash]

Chargers my god that lose is probably good by head coach .......................


He would be so fired if I owned them .

 

[randymon]

Chargers my god that lose is probably good by head coach .......................


He would be so fired if I owned them .

Translation..Loss to Brown's could cost SD coach his job.

 

[58crash]

Translation..Loss to Brown's could cost SD coach his job.

you seem to be a cockroach as of late ..translate that crap head

 

[cdumler7]

Wow Carr done for the year. Good chance that is the end of the Raiders winning the Super Bowl this year.

 

[iknowftbll]

Wow Carr done for the year. Good chance that is the end of the Raiders winning the Super Bowl this year.

I didn't consider them contenders anyway. In other news, the Dolphins 34-31 win over the Bills in OT makes the Broncos margin razor thin. If the Broncos lose today they are eliminated from the playoffs. And the Chiefs are going to come to play for so many reasons. With this Broncos team limping in the injury department and all out awful overall on offense, it's going to be a tough game.

With that said, here is the only route to the playoffs I can find:

Broncos win both remaining (10-6)

Dolphins lose to Patriots (10-6)

Chiefs beat Chargers (11-5)

Basically you want to avoid the 3-way tie at 10-6. If the Chiefs, Broncos, and Dolphins all finish at 10-6, the Chiefs are #6 and the Dolphins #5.

Merry Christmas, everyone. I'll be tuning into the game tonight but not likely chatting on the game thread if we even have one. I hope everyone's holiday is as good as mine!

 

[58crash]

Let's get to 10-6 if that isn't good enough I can so live with that .

 

[iknowftbll]

I guess now's as good a time as any to update this thread. I'll start by saying this: even 2016 was a good year to be a Broncos fan. Sure a 9-7 finish was a letdown. Maybe if wouldn't have been if that mark had been good enough for the Broncos to sneak into the playoffs. It wasn't. Still, behind a pair of 12-4 teams, the Broncos had a solid showing: this team isn't in need of a complete overhaul so much as some shoring up in two or three key areas. Between the influx of coaching and talent that will be brought in via FA and the draft, we have reason to hope 2017 will be better. The other thing to remember is this: despite missing the playoffs, the Broncos won as many playoff games as the Raiders and Chiefs combined! Now that's funny!

And speaking of the Chiefs, I'm seeing them associated with Romo more and more these days. I think I mentioned them as a possible destination a few weeks ago, acknowledging they have some serious cap issues before this sort of deal becomes possible. It would be interesting to see if they could get it done and what it would cost them both in terms of contract for Romo, dead money for Smith, and who they'd have to let walk in order to bring Romo in. With all that said, if they pull the trigger on this, I could see them repeating this year's 12-4 performance but falling apart again once the playoffs arrived.

Thoughts?

 

[LGM]

Somewhat related, but I think all those prognosticators who picked us third and the Raiders/Chiefs as 1 and 2 will get way too much hype this coming year, and will likely force me to shoot some of them.

That said, it's good to play in the best division in the AFC, because you truly know where you stand, very little room for trap games, etc. Bodes well for us in the coming years, if we can solve the oline, TE, and QB issues.

 

[iknowftbll]

Somewhat related, but I think all those prognosticators who picked us third and the Raiders/Chiefs as 1 and 2 will get way too much hype this coming year, and will likely force me to shoot some of them.

That said, it's good to play in the best division in the AFC, because you truly know where you stand, very little room for trap games, etc. Bodes well for us in the coming years, if we can solve the oline, TE, and QB issues.

Yeah, I was really hoping to see the Broncos defy odds and get into the playoffs. On Christmas Eve when I saw the Dolphins beat the Bills 34-31 in OT to improve to 10-5 I knew our season was over. The Broncos were sitting at 8-6 and I knew they weren't beating the Chiefs in KC (despite picking them anyway). I did figure they'd handle the Raiders at home and finish 9-7, but they needed the Dolphins to finish 9-7 too. At any rate, it's impossible to say how a 9-7 Broncos team would have fared on the road against an 11-5 Steelers team. All we can do is speculate. Still I think these Broncos could have given them a game and has as good a showing or better than the Raiders and Chiefs.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I guess now's as good a time as any to update this thread. I'll start by saying this: even 2016 was a good year to be a Broncos fan. Sure a 9-7 finish was a letdown. Maybe if wouldn't have been if that mark had been good enough for the Broncos to sneak into the playoffs. It wasn't. Still, behind a pair of 12-4 teams, the Broncos had a solid showing: this team isn't in need of a complete overhaul so much as some shoring up in two or three key areas. Between the influx of coaching and talent that will be brought in via FA and the draft, we have reason to hope 2017 will be better. The other thing to remember is this: despite missing the playoffs, the Broncos won as many playoff games as the Raiders and Chiefs combined! Now that's funny!

And speaking of the Chiefs, I'm seeing them associated with Romo more and more these days. I think I mentioned them as a possible destination a few weeks ago, acknowledging they have some serious cap issues before this sort of deal becomes possible. It would be interesting to see if they could get it done and what it would cost them both in terms of contract for Romo, dead money for Smith, and who they'd have to let walk in order to bring Romo in. With all that said, if they pull the trigger on this, I could see them repeating this year's 12-4 performance but falling apart again once the playoffs arrived.

Thoughts?

The common thread with these Romo rumors is they are all from Romo's perspective- wanting to go to a contender- and have little or nothing to do with the cap or team's perspective. I personally don't think it logically follows to trade for Romo. Makes more sense to just suck it up and draft a QB either this year or next instead of replacing a stopgap with stopgap2 + dead money.

 

[iknowftbll]

The common thread with these Romo rumors is they are all from Romo's perspective- wanting to go to a contender- and have little or nothing to do with the cap or team's perspective. I personally don't think it logically follows to trade for Romo. Makes more sense to just suck it up and draft a QB either this year or next instead of replacing a stopgap with stopgap2 + dead money.

Yes, that is definitely a good point. I don't think anyone is putting any stock into any of these rumors until we get closer to the actual free agency period. March will be a well-watched month. Sort of a poor man's "Manning Sweepstakes."

 

[iknowftbll]

I usually don't do predictions this early but I'm going to make an early baseline prediction and adjust/refine from there. Based on the home and away for each AFC West team here are my predictions:

Chiefs:

Home:
Broncos: W
Chargers: W
Raiders: W
Bills: W
Dolphins: W
Eagles: W
Redskins: W
Steelers: L

Away:
Broncos: L
Chargers: W
Raiders: L
Patriots: L (Potential season kickoff special)
Jets: W
Cowboys: L
Giants: L
Texans: W

Raiders:

Home:
Broncos: W
Chargers: W
Chiefs: W
Patriots: L (Game in Mexico City)
Jets: W
Cowboys: L
Giants: L
Ravens: W

Away:
Broncos: L
Chargers: W
Chiefs: L
Bills: W
Dolphins: W
Eagles: W
Redskins: L
Titans: L

Broncos:

Home:
Chiefs: W
Chargers: W
Raiders: W
Patriots: L
Jets: W
Cowboys: W
Giants: L
Bengals: W

Away:
Chiefs: L
Chargers: W
Raiders: L
Bills: W
Dolphins: W
Eagles: L
Redskins: W
Colts: L

Chargers:

Home:
Broncos: L
Raiders: L
Chiefs: L
Bills: W
Browns: W
Dolphins: W
Eagles: L
Redskins: L

Away:
Broncos: L
Raiders: L
Chiefs: L
Cowboys: L
Giants: L
Jaguars: W
Jets: L
Patriots: L

So my early swag is:

Broncos: 10-6
Chiefs: 10-6
Raiders: 9-7
Chargers: 4-12

In this W-L combination for the whole division I don't know which of the Chiefs or Broncos would get the tie breaker. These are just early guesses and I'm not going to actually analyze the predictions for tie breaker implications at this point.

There is very little rationale involved in this at this point. It pretty much amounts to me giving each team's home and away slate a glance, a shrug, and a guess. I didn't really get into match ups but did look at game combos. For example the Broncos host both the Cowboys and Giants this year and I can see them winning one and dropping one. (I can see them winning both too but I'm trying to reign in my optimism a bit.) So without a whole lot of thought I picked them to beat the Cowboys and lose to the Giants. And I did that with each of the teams.

As you can see I don't have a lot of faith in the Chargers. Between a 4-12 overall finish and a sweep by the other AFC West teams it's obvious who I consider to be the bottom feeder in the division. Between the move to Los Angeles and the changes in the coaching staff this season could be an absolute disaster for the Chargers.

Despite believing the Chiefs have issues on both sides of the ball and in the cap I've given them the benefit of the doubt because they still won 12 games with offensive and defensive production that was generally bottom half of the league.

It's easy to see the Raiders regress 1) because of their coach and 2) because that defense needs to vastly improve. Carr may be able to carry them again but we've seen plenty of teams that rely too heavily on offense are unable to keep it afloat long enough to keep winning games. It worked for them this year, but we saw what happened to them when Carr went down.

As for the Broncos I am making a very conservative assumption, that being a marginally improved O-line. Either in coaching or a position upgrade or both, I believe an O-line that improves from awful to below average can make the difference between 9-7 and no playoffs this year to 10-6 and playoffs next year.

Now a lot will change between now and May. First is free agency. After that is the schedule release. The sequence of opponents matters almost as much as who the opponents actually are, so that can result in changes to my predictions*. Lastly the draft in May. I will take these three factors into consideration when making my final schedule predictions sometime in May.

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

* An example of this is when the Broncos play the Chiefs in Kansas City. Part of me wants this to be their week 1 matchup because I believe with the Broncos new coaching staff and some of the changes here their best shot at beating the Chiefs in Kansas City is in Week 1 where just about anything can happen.

 

[Mingo]

@iknowftbll

I love your stuff - thanks.

I have absolutely no idea = whether the Broncos will be Super Bowl type elite - or muddle through like last year.

I'm excited about their prospects - it will be interesting to see if the all-star offensive coaching staff jells. In fact - with three new Coordinators - you don't know the learning curve for the coaches and players to hit a groove. Then again - in NFL football a lot depends upon the quarterback play - and that is iffy - even if it figures to improve over last year.

The Raiders - I'm convinced D. Carr is a top 5 QB - so I think they are undervalued in your analysis above. I do think JDR's coaching is a countervailing negative force. I also think the Raiders had injury luck until Carr went down last year.

As for the Chiefs - I do think they have to do something different to get over the top - the cadre of players they have are maxing out - alright - but the maxing still isn't ultimately good enough. If I owned them - I will look for a coaching change (I think Andy Reid is a well above average coach, but after so many years- with the same results the players stop paying attention to even good coaches).

Chargers - I agree with you on that outcome. If they do finish like that Phillip Rivers will retire or jump to another team - for a championship run. Frankly, Rivers on the Chiefs would be tough to beat.

 

[Clayton]

Chiefs really took advantage of the fact that the Chargers, Broncos and situationally even the Raiders oline and run game weren't all that good. Chargers are coming in with a 'ground and pound' coach and you'd think the Broncos will attack the offseason in a manner that improves their oline.

Chargers fit perfectly into 2 categories:

1) The undervalued sleeper team
2) The team that will implode with injuries

I think they are easily the most volatile team in the AFC West. They could go 4-12. They could go 11-5.

Chiefs and Broncos currently are both really reliant on turnovers. Raiders, therefore, will likely be the favorite going into next season but the general expectation will likely be that the division as a whole will be strong and contending for playoff spots. Unless injuries.

 

[MileHigh64]

This division is loaded. It's going to be a bloodbath for the next few years and I love it! It wouldn't surprise me to see the division crown bounce around among all the teams. I just don't see a team rising to dominance and winning title after title after title. The good news here is that the Broncos will probably be the last organization in the AFC West to do it for years to come!

 

[iknowftbll]

@iknowftbll

I love your stuff - thanks.

I'm glad you do. We have some pretty sharp regulars around here which is why I like this board so much.

I have absolutely no idea = whether the Broncos will be Super Bowl type elite - or muddle through like last year.

I'm excited about their prospects - it will be interesting to see if the all-star offensive coaching staff jells. In fact - with three new Coordinators - you don't know the learning curve for the coaches and players to hit a groove. Then again - in NFL football a lot depends upon the quarterback play - and that is iffy - even if it figures to improve over last year.

Anytime you change coaching staff it's hard to know what to expect. What gives me hope for this season is the defense, even though under a new DC, will not be all that different from the past 2 years. That alone will keep this team competitive week to week. Will it be enough to make them a SB contender again? That's hard to say, really. We don't even have a schedule yet and I've already predicted the team will go 10-6. Not all 10-6 teams are created equal though. Some start strong and fizzle out then get smoked in the playoffs. This team with the coaching changes could be the type of team that grinds early, wins some losses some and finds itself at 6-6 before getting some things to click and going on a run. That's not a prediction, of course especially before we see the schedule.

The Raiders - I'm convinced D. Carr is a top 5 QB - so I think they are undervalued in your analysis above. I do think JDR's coaching is a countervailing negative force. I also think the Raiders had injury luck until Carr went down last year.

I actually think their offense will be better this year, but the reason I am not sold on the Raiders YET is their defense. It's not that good. Granted it can improve, but even before Carr went down and the Raiders were still in the running for a first round playoff bye I didn't consider them a true contender with that defense. A couple key FAs or maybe a pick who can make an immediate impact will go a long way. Teams could score on them last year and if they don't reign that in, it's hard to see them replicate last year's success.

As for the Chiefs - I do think they have to do something different to get over the top - the cadre of players they have are maxing out - alright - but the maxing still isn't ultimately good enough. If I owned them - I will look for a coaching change (I think Andy Reid is a well above average coach, but after so many years- with the same results the players stop paying attention to even good coaches).

Andy Reid is to the Chiefs what John Fox was to the Broncos. He was the right guy at the right time for the job. That team went 2-14 the year before he arrived. Since then it's been 11-5, 9-7, 11-5, 12-4. Four straight winning seasons, 3 of 4 being playoff seasons, a playoff win (first in 22 years) and their first AFC West title since 2010. Rumors of Dorsey leaving for Green Bay after this season are swirling and Reid's gotta know his own fate hangs in the balance if that's the case. A new GM may want to hire his own coach unless Reid can make himself indispensable to the franchise.

Chargers - I agree with you on that outcome. If they do finish like that Phillip Rivers will retire or jump to another team - for a championship run. Frankly, Rivers on the Chiefs would be tough to beat.

I'd love to see Rivers go elsewhere and at least get a shot at a SB. I brought up a thread about teams without SB wins, and maybe Rivers on a team like the Texans would be a legit contender with a guy like Rivers. That's not happening with that albatross of a contract they have around their necks right now.

 

[Mingo]

Oakland Raiders give Jack Del Rio new four-year deal

JDR also gets 4 more years.

 

[iknowftbll]

Oakland Raiders give Jack Del Rio new four-year deal

JDR also gets 4 more years.

I can see why they did. 7-9 and 12-4. Best 2-year sequence in a really long time for the Raiders. My hope is JDR gets as complacent there as he did in Denver as the DC. I have said it more times than I care to count: the 2014 defense will go down in NFL history as the single biggest waste of defensive talent EVER. Wade proved it in 2015. Look for JDR to be on top of his game in 2017 (as I've already hinted I suspect a natural drop off from last year either way) but in the out years my guess is Raiders fans will be anticipating greatness that simply never arrives.