2024 Free agency and draft thread

[Sharkonabicycle]

I saw a video earlier today with Todd McShay talking about the top of the draft and he mentioned that with Brady, the WR evaluation is totally different because Brady knew where the ball was going quickly and knew where you needed to go and the WR needed to be able to read defenses like a QB. So it wasn't really about getting an elite WR. I suspect Bellichick had no real way of dealing with the passing game post-Brady and now that we're post-Bellichick then I suspect their drafting will look more normal.

Also talked a bit about Jayden Daniels and mentioned that confidence was the one real reason for the late improvement and that the tools and processing were always there.

True... but Tom Brady probably had the fastest 'processor' when it came to the quarterback position of all time. When you have that, it doesn't matter too much who your wideouts are. That said, he did still have some years of Welker, Gronk, Moss, etc. He did have some good talent from time to time. He also had some very good defenses (I'll give Bill credit for that) which can change the situation of what you need to do.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Yeah lol.


Its funny if you arent part of the fan base of the team that is about to do just that and trade up for a QB spending a TON of draft ammo for a QB that shouldnt be taken in the 1st round.

This is the EXACT scenario I had envisioned when I was saying that the team was going to just resign Cousins. This is the exact type of move that gets coaches and GM's fired and dooms a franchise to half a decade of complete irrelevance. Its why I still find all this so shocking at this point.

Not sure what they see in McCarthy but man I hope they are right.

Not sure what a bunch of teams see in McCarthy. Knowing Harbaugh he's trying to hype the fuck out of McCarthy so he can trade with the Vikes and secure a ton of selections to setup his team of the future with Herbert... that sneaky little fucker...

 

[Clayton]

Yeah lol.


Its funny if you arent part of the fan base of the team that is about to do just that and trade up for a QB spending a TON of draft ammo for a QB that shouldnt be taken in the 1st round.

This is the EXACT scenario I had envisioned when I was saying that the team was going to just resign Cousins. This is the exact type of move that gets coaches and GM's fired and dooms a franchise to half a decade of complete irrelevance. Its why I still find all this so shocking at this point.

Not sure what they see in McCarthy but man I hope they are right.

I'm not ruling out the idea that the Vikings aren't interested in trading up for McCarthy but just having lots of ammo means they can control the draft to a certain extent. There are so many offensive players projected to go rd1 that a team like the Vikings can catch defensive players falling.

 

[MileHigh64]

I don't see the Patriots moving out of the 3rd spot in the draft. The more likely scenario for any team attempting to move up would be to trade with the Chargers at the 5th pick. That seems very likely to me but that would mean a team is arguably targeting JJ McCarthy, since the top 3 should be gone. Just don't agree that McCarthy, Nix or Penix should be in the top 5. QB's in the draft are all a crap shoot though.

 

[Battlelyon]

 

[DJ]

Interesting since they signed already Winston.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Interesting since they signed already Winston.

Maybe they're going to release Watson? Oh wait...

 

[DJ]

Maybe they're going to release Watson? Oh wait...

View attachment 357394

I think next offseason would be the earliest they could do that but they would be taking on a Russell Wilson type hit if they did. Worse actually since it's a fully guaranteed deal.

LOL.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I think next offseason would be the earliest they could do that but they would be taking on a Russell Wilson type hit if they did. Worse actually since it's a fully guaranteed deal.

LOL.

It'd be far worse... even a post 6/1 next year release would STILL be worse than Wilson who gets like $53M this year, $32M next year due to the club option. A post 6/1 release NEXT year would be $110M+ in 2025 and like $30M the next year. The only option is sticking with him through 2025 and a 2026 release.

 

[Clayton]

I don't see the Patriots moving out of the 3rd spot in the draft. The more likely scenario for any team attempting to move up would be to trade with the Chargers at the 5th pick. That seems very likely to me but that would mean a team is arguably targeting JJ McCarthy, since the top 3 should be gone. Just don't agree that McCarthy, Nix or Penix should be in the top 5. QB's in the draft are all a crap shoot though.

Imo, Sam Darnold and Jarret Stidham as roughly the same tier of QB right now and the assumption is that the Vikings desperately need to trade up while the Broncos are totally fine with Stidham. I don't think either QB is really old enough (27,28 next year) to really totally rule out as a starter in the league if you have a competent system built around them.

Geno Smith will be 34 after next year. Thats probably the easiest fit for someone like JJ McCarthy. McCarthy being a mid 1st is probably about right. If you play it out with no Chargers/Vikings trade, maybe you get...

1. Bears - Caleb Williams
2. Commanders - Jayden Daniels
3. Patriots - Drake Maye
4. Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr
5. Bears - Malik Nabers
6. Giants - Rome Odunze
7. Titans - Joe Alt
8. Falcons - Dallas Turner
9. Chargers - Brock Bowers
10. Jets - Olu Fashanu
11. Vikings - JJ McCarthy if they wanted him.

I think that looks more right than JJ McCarthy ahead of Nabers, Odunze, Alt, etc. I get that QB is different but still

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Imo, Sam Darnold and Jarret Stidham as roughly the same tier of QB right now and the assumption is that the Vikings desperately need to trade up while the Broncos are totally fine with Stidham. I don't think either QB is really old enough (27,28 next year) to really totally rule out as a starter in the league if you have a competent system built around them.

Geno Smith will be 34 after next year. Thats probably the easiest fit for someone like JJ McCarthy. McCarthy being a mid 1st is probably about right. If you play it out with no Chargers/Vikings trade, maybe you get...

1. Bears - Caleb Williams
2. Commanders - Jayden Daniels
3. Patriots - Drake Maye
4. Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr
5. Bears - Malik Nabers
6. Giants - Rome Odunze
7. Titans - Joe Alt
8. Falcons - Dallas Turner
9. Chargers - Brock Bowers
10. Jets - Olu Fashanu
11. Vikings - JJ McCarthy if they wanted him.

I think that looks more right than JJ McCarthy ahead of Nabers, Odunze, Alt, etc. I get that QB is different but still

That's weird to me then that they traded up in the 1st this early though. Why wouldn't you just wait until draft day to see who is available if you really want someone at 23? The only way that trade this early makes sense is they're somehow trying to negotiate for the top 3 QBs or they REALLY want someone that they think Denver will leap from them for.

If they do move up with the Chargers to #5 and LA snags the 23rd overall (and maybe throw in their own 3rd rounder or something) AND Bowers then I have to wonder how much Harbaugh was spreading rumors to other GMs and coaches about how amazing McCarthy was... if that's the case, what a schemer lol.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Interesting since they signed already Winston.

You never know with injuries. Gotta prepare for the worst I guess lol. Unlikely they roster 4, so either Huntley is traded or released or DTR is on the practice squad

 

[Xeliou66]

I’m not sure what the Vikings are doing - I don’t think McCarthy, Nix or Penix are worth a first round pick, and as I’ve said before I’ll laugh my ass off if they trade up to take McCarthy in the top 10/top 5. He’s just not a franchise QB. Nix or Penix might be capable of being a franchise QB, but they aren’t worth a 1st round pick. Very interesting to see what will happen.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I’m not sure what the Vikings are doing - I don’t think McCarthy, Nix or Penix are worth a first round pick, and as I’ve said before I’ll laugh my ass off if they trade up to take McCarthy in the top 10/top 5. He’s just not a franchise QB. Nix or Penix might be capable of being a franchise QB, but they aren’t worth a 1st round pick. Very interesting to see what will happen.

So if Cousins had signed with the Viking you would of wanted the Falcons to do what? Stay with Ridder or???

 

[Clayton]

That's weird to me then that they traded up in the 1st this early though. Why wouldn't you just wait until draft day to see who is available if you really want someone at 23? The only way that trade this early makes sense is they're somehow trying to negotiate for the top 3 QBs or they REALLY want someone that they think Denver will leap from them for.

If they do move up with the Chargers to #5 and LA snags the 23rd overall (and maybe throw in their own 3rd rounder or something) AND Bowers then I have to wonder how much Harbaugh was spreading rumors to other GMs and coaches about how amazing McCarthy was... if that's the case, what a schemer lol.

It does seem like the main reason to make this move early is to show the Patriots and Chargers that you have the ammo and you're serious. I think the idea that the Patriots dont love Maye as a prospect seems more realistic than the Vikings being head over heels for McCarthy but I guess both are in play. I think its entirely possible that the Vikings aren't in love with any of their solutions.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

It does seem like the main reason to make this move early is to show the Patriots and Chargers that you have the ammo and you're serious. I think the idea that the Patriots dont love Maye as a prospect seems more realistic than the Vikings being head over heels for McCarthy but I guess both are in play. I think its entirely possible that the Vikings aren't in love with any of their solutions.

Yah I have to wonder... I mean I said it before, to go from #11 to #3 it's going to be #11, #23 and a 2025 1st rounder... at a minimum. That's a lot of capital. And at #11 McCarthy or Nix is still likely to be there.

New regimes usually mean new QBs and Washington/New England are both those, though.

 

[Clayton]

I’m not sure what the Vikings are doing - I don’t think McCarthy, Nix or Penix are worth a first round pick, and as I’ve said before I’ll laugh my ass off if they trade up to take McCarthy in the top 10/top 5. He’s just not a franchise QB. Nix or Penix might be capable of being a franchise QB, but they aren’t worth a 1st round pick. Very interesting to see what will happen.

I'm not fully sure I agree with the idea that a first round QB needs to be a franchise QB. A top 5 pick does because of what it represents on the trade value chart but anything outside of that can just simply be a starting level QB and be worthwhile imo just because of the cost control it gives you for half a decade.

If Sam Darnold has a good year, you're going to have to pay him $35 million a year from 2025 and beyond. JJ McCarthy might be like $8 million a year for his first four years. Bo Nix maybe a little less. So you're saving maybe $75-80 mil over 3 years. Unless you're drafting Chris Jones or better with your first round pick then you might as well save some cash and bring in a young QB.

 

[DJ]

You never know with injuries. Gotta prepare for the worst I guess lol. Unlikely they roster 4, so either Huntley is traded or released or DTR is on the practice squad

Some chatter Winston hasn't signed yet. The Browns have not announced it yet.

Could be something, could be nothing. But, that is interesting.

 

[dtgold88]

It'd be far worse... even a post 6/1 next year release would STILL be worse than Wilson who gets like $53M this year, $32M next year due to the club option. A post 6/1 release NEXT year would be $110M+ in 2025 and like $30M the next year. The only option is sticking with him through 2025 and a 2026 release.

That....or he plays like he did his last few games pre injury or even better?

as to Huntley? No idea what that's about. Maybe not so enamoured with DTR? Just hope has nothing to do with Watson recovery.

 

[dtgold88]

You never know with injuries. Gotta prepare for the worst I guess lol. Unlikely they roster 4, so either Huntley is traded or released or DTR is on the practice squad

Just hope it's not that Watson recovery not going well.