2017 Regular Season Thread

[hattersgonnahate]

[Checks the box score]

Overreaction of the day: Fire sale / full rebuild, anyone? This is a 0.500 team, as suggested by the run differential...

 

[hattersgonnahate]

[Checks the box score]

Overreaction of the day: Fire sale / full rebuild, anyone? This is a 0.500 team, as suggested by the run differential...

Addendum: So what exactly went wrong in May so far? Let's see...

• Batting: 0.243 (18th in the MLB) / 0.307 (21st) / 0.406 (15th) / 0.713 (18th) in April;
  0.269 (8th) / 0.323 (18th) / 0.441 (13th) / 0.764 (14th) in May so far
  
  
• Pitching:
  • April: 4.26 ERA (22th) / 4.72 FIP (26th) / 1.42 WHIP (28th) for starters;
    4.09 ERA (11th) / 4.10 FIP (14th) / 1.49 WHIP (24th) for relievers
    
    
  • May: 4.70 ERA (15th) / 4.92 FIP (20th) / 1.50 WHIP (26th) for starters;
    3.91 ERA (17th) / 4.54 FIP (26th) / 1.44 WHIP (24th) for relievers

So it seems that this team's hitting has been middle of the pack (but trending upward), while its pitching is mediocre at best. Considering how these numbers compare to the rest of the league, the 10-12 record in May so far should not be a surprise. In other words: "This team's luck is starting to run out."

 

[UVA_Guy81]

[Checks the box score]

Overreaction of the day: Fire sale / full rebuild, anyone? This is a 0.500 team, as suggested by the run differential...

Addendum: So what exactly went wrong in May so far? Let's see...

• Batting: 0.243 (18th in the MLB) / 0.307 (21st) / 0.406 (15th) / 0.713 (18th) in April;
  0.269 (8th) / 0.323 (18th) / 0.441 (13th) / 0.764 (14th) in May so far
  
  
• Pitching:
  • April: 4.26 ERA (22th) / 4.72 FIP (26th) / 1.42 WHIP (28th) for starters;
    4.09 ERA (11th) / 4.10 FIP (14th) / 1.49 WHIP (24th) for relievers
    
    
  • May: 4.70 ERA (15th) / 4.92 FIP (20th) / 1.50 WHIP (26th) for starters;
    3.91 ERA (17th) / 4.54 FIP (26th) / 1.44 WHIP (24th) for relievers

So it seems that this team's hitting has been middle of the pack (but trending upward), while its pitching is mediocre at best. Considering how these numbers compare to the rest of the league, the 10-12 record in May so far should not be a surprise. In other words: "This team's luck is starting to run out."

This has been the same story different year. Offense is hot and cold at times and more often than not, our starting pitching is embarrassing to watch. I think by the end of the season, we'll be around or slightly over .500 and in contention for a wild card slot but won't make it far in the playoffs if we make it.
But I think by the trade deadline next season at the latest, I'd start the fire sale since it's not likely we'll be able to keep Manny and now won't be able to get anything for him whenever he signs with another team. I'd like to rebuild the farm system and have an anyone goes fire sale (maybe barring a very select few). I'd like to go the same route the Yankees did last year and just get rid of as many veterans as we can and start fresh with a crop of fresh, young talent. I doubt that'd be a popular route to go amongst most Orioles fans but I think that it'd be better in the long run since this team likely isn't going to be a serious contender in October this year or next with the current roster.

 

[jeffro151]

This has been the same story different year. Offense is hot and cold at times and more often than not, our starting pitching is embarrassing to watch. I think by the end of the season, we'll be around or slightly over .500 and in contention for a wild card slot but won't make it far in the playoffs if we make it.
But I think by the trade deadline next season at the latest, I'd start the fire sale since it's not likely we'll be able to keep Manny and now won't be able to get anything for him whenever he signs with another team. I'd like to rebuild the farm system and have an anyone goes fire sale (maybe barring a very select few). I'd like to go the same route the Yankees did last year and just get rid of as many veterans as we can and start fresh with a crop of fresh, young talent. I doubt that'd be a popular route to go amongst most Orioles fans but I think that it'd be better in the long run since this team likely isn't going to be a serious contender in October this year or next with the current roster.

I would be fine with a total rebuild if we didn't already have an awful track record with bringing folks up through the farm. From 2001-2012, we had a top 10 pick in all but 1 year. Markakis, Weiters and Manny have been the only proven talents to come out of those 11 picks. Gausman looks to have totally lost it, and while Bundy has had a great year, the jury is still out.

Hunter Harvey has already missed the 2015 season, and won't pitch this season until the fall.
DJ Stewart seems to be coming along slowly, but nothing to write home about.
Ryan Mountcastle seems to be excelling, but it's only A ball.
Cody Sedlock has had a terrible year so far in A.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

I would be fine with a total rebuild if we didn't already have an awful track record with bringing folks up through the farm. From 2001-2012, we had a top 10 pick in all but 1 year. Markakis, Weiters and Manny have been the only proven talents to come out of those 11 picks. Gausman looks to have totally lost it, and while Bundy has had a great year, the jury is still out.

Hunter Harvey has already missed the 2015 season, and won't pitch this season until the fall.
DJ Stewart seems to be coming along slowly, but nothing to write home about.
Ryan Mountcastle seems to be excelling, but it's only A ball.
Cody Sedlock has had a terrible year so far in A.

But what would be the point in having Machado walk at the end of next year for nothing? Because I seriously doubt that we'll pony up what he'll command on the free agent market. So I'd at least like to get something for the guy since we won't be able to get a 1st round pick for him anymore. Dumpster Diving Dan's constant patchwork idea with everything isn't going to help this team get over the hump. It's just going to keep us floundering around .500. As far as I'm concerned, I'd say just about everyone on this team would be available to be had if the price is right.

 

[jeffro151]

But what would be the point in having Machado walk at the end of next year for nothing? Because I seriously doubt that we'll pony up what he'll command on the free agent market. So I'd at least like to get something for the guy since we won't be able to get a 1st round pick for him anymore. Dumpster Diving Dan's constant patchwork idea with everything isn't going to help this team get over the hump. It's just going to keep us floundering around .500. As far as I'm concerned, I'd say just about everyone on this team would be available to be had if the price is right.

Oh, I'm perfectly fine with trading Machado for prospects, I just don't think we need to do a full rebuild unless we clean house completely from top to bottom.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Oh, I'm perfectly fine with trading Machado for prospects, I just don't think we need to do a full rebuild unless we clean house completely from top to bottom.

That's ultimately what I'd want, barring a few exceptions like Mancini and Sisco for example. I saw last year at the trade deadline how well the Yankees did with trading their main guys and all of the good talent that they got back and think that if they got that for their players, we could definitely get a good haul and be set for the future instead of just treading water.

 

[mikeytheman247]

If they start trading people they should go all in. The prospects Manny and Britton this July would be a huge jump start on a rebuild.

Plus Tillman, Seth Smith, and Willington should have good demand this July. Also, a ton of salary will be coming off the books by the end of next season.

Our free agents after this season;
Welington Castillo (31) — $7MM player option If he keeps up he'll easily decline.
Ryan Flaherty
J.J. Hardy (35) — $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Hyun Soo Kim (30)
Seth Smith (35)
Pedro Alvarez (31)
Ubaldo Jimenez (34)
Chris Tillman (30)

After next season;
Manny Machado (26)
Adam Jones (33)
Brad Brach (33)
Zach Britton (31)

That's all of the starters besides Davis, Trumbo, and Schoop. I don't see us being almost to resign most of those guys plus adding 3 legit starting pitchers to fill the holes.

They will most likely never trade Britton of Manny and let them walk and not get anything in return because they don't want to upset the fans.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

If they start trading people they should go all in. The prospects Manny and Britton this July would be a huge jump start on a rebuild.

Plus Tillman, Seth Smith, and Willington should have good demand this July. Also, a ton of salary will be coming off the books by the end of next season.

Our free agents after this season;
Welington Castillo (31) — $7MM player option If he keeps up he'll easily decline.
Ryan Flaherty
J.J. Hardy (35) — $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Hyun Soo Kim (30)
Seth Smith (35)
Pedro Alvarez (31)
Ubaldo Jimenez (34)
Chris Tillman (30)

After next season;
Manny Machado (26)
Adam Jones (33)
Brad Brach (33)
Zach Britton (31)

That's all of the starters besides Davis, Trumbo, and Schoop. I don't see us being almost to resign most of those guys plus adding 3 legit starting pitchers to fill the holes.

They will most likely never trade Britton of Manny and let them walk and not get anything in return because they don't want to upset the fans.

I honestly think the fans would be more pissed if they made no effort in signing him before he's a free agent instead of getting a bunch of top level prospects in return. Ultimately, the fans might be upset in the short term with a rebuild but if it means a better team in the long run, they'd be more accepting and understanding of what's going on.

 

[jeffro151]

Getting shut down by a pitcher with a 5.63 ERA

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Getting shut down by a pitcher with a 5.63 ERA

I don't know if that is worse or the fact that one of the few times Gausman pitches a decent game this season, he gets no run support.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

If they start trading people they should go all in. The prospects Manny and Britton this July would be a huge jump start on a rebuild.

[...List of free agents after 2017 and 2018...]

That's all of the starters besides Davis, Trumbo, and Schoop. I don't see us being almost to resign most of those guys plus adding 3 legit starting pitchers to fill the holes.

They will most likely never trade Britton of Manny and let them walk and not get anything in return because they don't want to upset the fans.

I would be upset if the front office can find other teams that are willing to take these players in exchange of prospects but but fails to do so by 7/31. After all, mathematically speaking, the marginal benefit from moving in either direction (going all-in or attempting a full rebuild) is maximized for a ~0.500 team.

Besides, there's one argument that the front office could use:
"If we don't trade [name of player now] under our terms (e.g. to a non-AL East team), they would sign for the Yankees / Red Sox for 2018/19, and we'd be irrelevant for the next 10-20 years [point to 1998-2011 for historical precedent if necessary]."

 

[hattersgonnahate]

[Checks the box score again]

6 straight losses? Okay, this is going to sound horrible... but there's a part of me that's almost hoping that this team would be able to top the losing streak of the 1988 Orioles, so that everyone (i.e. both the fans and the front office) would be on the same page that an immediate full rebuild is the forced move.

 

[all4ripken]

Tillman pitching another gem

 

[tedman2012]

Tillman pitching another gem

yep he needs to go along with jj

 

[jeffro151]

Whew. This team is just bad in all facets of the game right now. Unless they win 10 of their next 15, it's time to seriously look at sending our top players out. Castillo, Trumbo, Schoop, Machado, Brach, O'Day, should all be traded, among several others. Obviously no one is going to take Davis off of our hands, and I feel that ownership will view Jones as untouchable. Hardy is too much of a liability, as is Kim.

 

[mikeytheman247]

Whew. This team is just bad in all facets of the game right now. Unless they win 10 of their next 15, it's time to seriously look at sending our top players out. Castillo, Trumbo, Schoop, Machado, Brach, O'Day, should all be traded, among several others. Obviously no one is going to take Davis off of our hands, and I feel that ownership will view Jones as untouchable. Hardy is too much of a liability, as is Kim.

Jones is a free agent after this year so they minus well trade him. This team is at best a 500 team this season. They will need at least 3 good starting pitchers next year, LF, and RF to compete with the Sox and Yankees.

 

[jeffro151]

And it looks like Wellington is heading back to the DL after taking a nut buster last night.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Jones is a free agent after this year so they minus well trade him. This team is at best a 500 team this season. They will need at least 3 good starting pitchers next year, LF, and RF to compete with the Sox and Yankees.

And it looks like Wellington is heading back to the DL after taking a nut buster last night.

In honor of National Spelling Bee week:

Liquidation

• Language of origin: Latin.
  
• Part of speech: Noun.
• Definition: The process of dissolving a business by selling its assets.
  
  
• Use in a sentence: After the implosion of the Baltimore Orioles in May, fans are now calling for the liquidation of the team's entire 25-man roster in exchange of prospects in order to rebuild the team for the future.

(/s)

 

[jeffro151]

Alvarez had been on a tear the last few weeks at Norfolk. His opt out is tomorrow, have to think he gets called up and Gentry or Kim is going to get cut.