2016/2017 Off-Season Thread

[LHG]

Nunez was an AS only because the Twinks had to be represented. Panik has had an awful year and needs to reestablish himself. Belt is a top 1/2 1B, but not a "star" by any stretch.

I feel that is the kind of analysis that trips up many a fan (including myself). We build in our mind a certain concept of how a player should perform, based either on an objective set of numbers or a subjective eye test. When a player doesn't measure up to our standards, we want to cast them aside. However, the analysis is made in a vacuum. Maybe the player isn't what we want but is their a ready acquired alternative that would be better?

In Belt's case, his 2nd half has made him look not quite like Goldschmidt or Rizzo (which was where he was at, in terms of OPS, at the ASG). However, the few guys at that level, including Miguel Cabrera, are not available. Do we have someone at AAA, or even AA, that is ready to take over 1st base and hit like Jeff Bagwell in his prime? The closest we have is Brandon Belt. Is there a 1st baseman about to hit free agency this offseason that is as good as Will Clark in his prime? Brandon Belt is the closest we've got. Is there a 1st baseman that could be had for the right package that is more amazing than Frank Thomas? Brandon Belt is the best we can play.

Sure, Buster Posey could easily slide over to 1st base and Trevor Brown can take over behind the dish on a full time basis, but which combo, Belt/Posey or Posey/Brown, gives this lineup, no matter who else is around them, a better chance to win a game? Panik is a very different scenario. Maybe a better hitting 2nd baseman will be available, or a better hitting 3rd baseman that would allow Nunez to slide over to 2nd base, but I think our infield deserves another year together. Actually, I'm least concerned of Nunez out of any of them. His numbers still aren't that great since coming over, but they are getting better.

 

[tzill]

Nunez was an AS only because the Twinks had to be represented. Panik has had an awful year and needs to reestablish himself. Belt is a top 1/2 1B, but not a "star" by any stretch.

I don't want to get back into the Belt Wars, but he's top 1/3 at least. He's a lot better than most give him credit for. Nunez was ASG worthy. Panik was hurt this year, and seems to be rounding into form.

We can disagree.

 

[tzill]

So, to recap the roster for 2017, I have:

C: Posey, Brown
IF: Belt, Panik, Crawford, Nunez, Tomlinson, Adrianza
OF: Pence, Span, Williamson, Parker, Slater
SP: Bumgarner, Cueto, Moore, Samardzija, Cain
RP: Strickland, Law, Smith, Osich, Gearrin, Kontos, (open spot)

Total payroll about $166MM

Money to add a closer. So, do we overpay for Melancon or trade for Wade?

 

[Stokes1931]

So, to recap the roster for 2017, I have:

C: Posey, Brown
IF: Belt, Panik, Crawford, Nunez, Tomlinson, Adrianza
OF: Pence, Span, Williamson, Parker, Slater
SP: Bumgarner, Cueto, Moore, Samardzija, Cain
RP: Strickland, Law, Smith, Osich, Gearrin, Kontos, (open spot)

Total payroll about $166MM

Money to add a closer. So, do we overpay for Melancon or trade for Wade?

Sounds good to me. I'd love to see Blach get a look, he's still young, has improved every year, and has nothing to prove at AAA.

 

[tzill]

Sounds good to me. I'd love to see Blach get a look, he's still young, has improved every year, and has nothing to prove at AAA.

Sure, but what do you do with Cain?

I can't see them DFAing him until he's had at least ten starts in 2017

 

[SFGRTB]

Here are the names of our minor league guys eligible for the Rule 5 draft:
Pitchers
Martin Agosta
Carlos Diaz
Jason Forjet
Ian Gardeck
Chase Johnson
Christian Jones
Dustin Knight
Matthew Lujan
Jacob McCasland
Tyler Mizenko
Jose Morel
Reyes Moronta
Randy Ortiz
Luis Pino
Tyler Rogers
Daniel Slania
DJ Snelten
Jeff Soptic
Pat Young

Catchers
Travis Higgs
Matt Pare
John Riley
Ty Ross

Infielders
Brandon Bednar, 2nd
Mitchell Delfino, 3rd
Miguel Gomez, 1st
Ryder Jones, 3rd
Rando Moreno, ss
Ricky Oropesa, 1st
John Polonius, 2nd
Travious Relaford, ss
Richard Rodriguez, 2nd
Leo Rojas, 1st

Outfielders
Tyler Horan
Julio Pena

Out of all these names, the only ones I think the Giants will consider protecting are Chase Johnson, Jacob McCasland, Tyler Rogers, Daniel Slania, Jeff Soptic (just kidding!) and Ryder Jones.

Why is Ryder Jones eligible but not Arroyo? Weren't they drafted the same season?

I'd say Chase Johnson, Tyler Rogers, Sania, and Reyes Moronta are the only candidates worth discussing. Pitchers are easier to hide on a 25-man roster than position players, and most of those batters are just too raw for a ML club right now (or straight up aren't ML players).

 

[LHG]

Why is Ryder Jones eligible but not Arroyo? Weren't they drafted the same season?

I'd say Chase Johnson, Tyler Rogers, Sania, and Reyes Moronta are the only candidates worth discussing. Pitchers are easier to hide on a 25-man roster than position players, and most of those batters are just too raw for a ML club right now (or straight up aren't ML players).

Ryder Jones was 19 years old when he signed while Arroyo was 18. The way the Rule 5 works, players signed before they turn 19 have a longer time period before the organization has to protect them or risk exposure. So the Giants get one more year of protection on Arroyo.

Of those position players, only 9 of them have even made it to AA or AAA and of those, 3 of them only were fill ins for a couple of games (Ross, Polonius and Rodriguez).

None of the catchers have had any kind of success offensively. Higgs was on Sacramento's disabled list all season but also listed as their bullpen catcher (how could someone injured handle that responsibility?). Pare was Matt Winn's back up in Augusta. Riley was a platoon catcher at Salem-Keizer. Ross was the fill in for Garcia in San Jose.

Of the infielders, the only worth considering, I think are Delfino, Gomez and Jones. Each of them has significant issues. Delfino couldn't hit at AAA and got a month long demotion to San Jose. Gomez finally got promoted to San Jose and couldn't hit. Jones struggles with hitting period. That being said, he was decent for AA standards. He is the most likely candidate, in my humble opinion, to be the lone position player added to the 40 man roster.

Tyler Horan, two years ago, would have been worthy of a spot. Now, he is a backup outfielder for AA and is probably nothing more than an organizational filler at this point.

 

[Stokes1931]

Sure, but what do you do with Cain?

I can't see them DFAing him until he's had at least ten starts in 2017

Blach for #openspot???



Or keep him starting in Sacramento for first call up if someone gets hurt.

I'd suppose Blach and Blackburn are even in who gets called up first, with Stratton not far behind. Beede could make a huge push in AAA this next season. He was great in San Jose, awful to begin Richmond, and then finished his AA season with great pitching.

 

[LHG]

Here are the names of our minor league guys eligible for the Rule 5 draft:
Pitchers
Martin Agosta
Carlos Diaz
Jason Forjet
Ian Gardeck
Chase Johnson
Christian Jones
Dustin Knight
Matthew Lujan
Jacob McCasland
Tyler Mizenko
Jose Morel
Reyes Moronta
Randy Ortiz
Luis Pino
Tyler Rogers
Daniel Slania
DJ Snelten
Jeff Soptic
Pat Young

Catchers
Travis Higgs
Matt Pare
John Riley
Ty Ross

Infielders
Brandon Bednar, 2nd
Mitchell Delfino, 3rd
Miguel Gomez, 1st
Ryder Jones, 3rd
Rando Moreno, ss
Ricky Oropesa, 1st
John Polonius, 2nd
Travious Relaford, ss
Richard Rodriguez, 2nd
Leo Rojas, 1st

Outfielders
Tyler Horan
Julio Pena

Out of all these names, the only ones I think the Giants will consider protecting are Chase Johnson, Jacob McCasland, Tyler Rogers, Daniel Slania, Jeff Soptic (just kidding!) and Ryder Jones.

Missed a few names on my initial list. The below are also eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December:
Michael Connolly, sp
Hengerber Medina, sp
Wilson Santos, rp
Caleb Simpson, rp
Shawon Dunston, Jr, of

The 2017 class will be much more interesting.

 

[SFGRTB]

Ryder Jones was 19 years old when he signed while Arroyo was 18. The way the Rule 5 works, players signed before they turn 19 have a longer time period before the organization has to protect them or risk exposure. So the Giants get one more year of protection on Arroyo.

Of those position players, only 9 of them have even made it to AA or AAA and of those, 3 of them only were fill ins for a couple of games (Ross, Polonius and Rodriguez).

None of the catchers have had any kind of success offensively. Higgs was on Sacramento's disabled list all season but also listed as their bullpen catcher (how could someone injured handle that responsibility?). Pare was Matt Winn's back up in Augusta. Riley was a platoon catcher at Salem-Keizer. Ross was the fill in for Garcia in San Jose.

Of the infielders, the only worth considering, I think are Delfino, Gomez and Jones. Each of them has significant issues. Delfino couldn't hit at AAA and got a month long demotion to San Jose. Gomez finally got promoted to San Jose and couldn't hit. Jones struggles with hitting period. That being said, he was decent for AA standards. He is the most likely candidate, in my humble opinion, to be the lone position player added to the 40 man roster.

Tyler Horan, two years ago, would have been worthy of a spot. Now, he is a backup outfielder for AA and is probably nothing more than an organizational filler at this point.

Thanks for clearing that up.

Gomez really heated up around mid August, but before that his time in SJ was not good. Other than that, he's been an elite hitter at all of his stops. Don't think that'll be enough to attract teams, especially with his defensive concerns. Delfino is depth. Jones has great tools (plus raw power, good defense at 3rd), but he has to show them off in game still. I agree he'd be the most likely batter to need protection, but I think he's safe another year. Granted, the lack of depth at 3B (Arroyo, I guess) could motivate the Giants to hang onto the guy at all costs.

 

[calsnowskier]

Here are the names of our minor league guys eligible for the Rule 5 draft:
Pitchers
Martin Agosta
Carlos Diaz
Jason Forjet
Ian Gardeck
Chase Johnson
Christian Jones
Dustin Knight
Matthew Lujan
Jacob McCasland
Tyler Mizenko
Jose Morel
Reyes Moronta
Randy Ortiz
Luis Pino
Tyler Rogers
Daniel Slania
DJ Snelten
Jeff Soptic
Pat Young

Catchers
Travis Higgs
Matt Pare
John Riley
Ty Ross

Infielders
Brandon Bednar, 2nd
Mitchell Delfino, 3rd
Miguel Gomez, 1st
Ryder Jones, 3rd
Rando Moreno, ss
Ricky Oropesa, 1st
John Polonius, 2nd
Travious Relaford, ss
Richard Rodriguez, 2nd
Leo Rojas, 1st

Outfielders
Tyler Horan
Julio Pena

Out of all these names, the only ones I think the Giants will consider protecting are Chase Johnson, Jacob McCasland, Tyler Rogers, Daniel Slania, Jeff Soptic (just kidding!) and Ryder Jones.

So based on the current roster, assuming no DFAs and all Arbs are picked up (no chance in hell), we currently have 35 on the 40-man.

Of the RuleV players, I think Agosta and Johnson are locks, with Ryder Jones, Dan Slania, Tyler Rogers and Rando Moreno as possibilities.

Further, I have already targeted Gearrin and Gillaspie as non-tender possibilities and Heston, Blackburn, Blach and Crick as DFA possibilities.

I don't think we will have a 40-man crunch this year.

 

[LHG]

So based on the current roster, assuming no DFAs and all Arbs are picked up (no chance in hell), we currently have 35 on the 40-man.

Of the RuleV players, I think Agosta and Johnson are locks, with Ryder Jones, Dan Slania, Tyler Rogers and Rando Moreno as possibilities.

Further, I have already targeted Gearrin and Gillaspie as non-tender possibilities and Heston, Blackburn, Blach and Crick as DFA possibilities.

I don't think we will have a 40-man crunch this year.

I don't see Agosta being anywhere near a lock. He was eligible to be drafted last year and was left exposed. His 2016 campaign wasn't very convincing. He started the season in San Jose as a reliever, throwing in 4 games, before getting moved to Sacramento, where he pitched in relief for a little over a week. He then went to extended spring training for about 2 weeks before going back to San Jose to start. He did look better then he did in 2015 as a starter but got injured in June, going down for the rest of the season. I think the Giants let him pass through the draft again.

Chase Johnson went a bit in the opposite direction, starting the year in Richmond's rotation. His 6th and 7th start were his best of the season when he was abruptly moved to the bullpen for the rest of the year. His numbers were fairly good as a reliever: 2.30 ERA, 1.085 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, and 3.20 K to BB. I think he is on the short list but not a lock. Then again, I'm not sure which of the pitchers that they will purchase as Tyler Rogers looked very hittable in AAA, Slania (who replaced Johnson in Richmond's rotation) did well in three stops but seemed to not take the typical prospect route to AAA and McCasland is a bit old for low A ball.

Looking more at Reyes Moronta's numbers, I think he's the closest thing to a lock. At the age of 21, he posted a 2.59 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 14.2 K/9 and 4.65 K/BB in 60 games with San Jose. Considering his age (contrast to Jake Smith), he seems like someone they would want to protect because some big league club (think San Diego) would most likely snatch him up.

 

[SFGRTB]

So based on the current roster, assuming no DFAs and all Arbs are picked up (no chance in hell), we currently have 35 on the 40-man.

Of the RuleV players, I think Agosta and Johnson are locks, with Ryder Jones, Dan Slania, Tyler Rogers and Rando Moreno as possibilities.

Further, I have already targeted Gearrin and Gillaspie as non-tender possibilities and Heston, Blackburn, Blach and Crick as DFA possibilities.

I don't think we will have a 40-man crunch this year.

Agosta is no where near a lock. Not only has his performance not dictated it, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will be out most of the year. Not trying to put you on blast or bash you or anything, but where do you get that notion? Reyes Moronta is probably the one "lock".

Also, I think Blach and Blackburn are pretty safe. Giants are pretty high on them.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agosta is no where near a lock. Not only has his performance not dictated it, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will be out most of the year. Not trying to put you on blast or bash you or anything, but where do you get that notion? Reyes Moronta is probably the one "lock".

Also, I think Blach and Blackburn are pretty safe. Giants are pretty high on them.

I mistyped Blach. I meant Black. Probably a pre-emotive auto-correct correction.

As far as Agosta, I missed that he had TJ and would be out. I was looking at his quick numbers and going off his pedigree.

 

[LHG]

I mistyped Blach. I meant Black. Probably a pre-emotive auto-correct correction.

As far as Agosta, I missed that he had TJ and would be out. I was looking at his quick numbers and going off his pedigree.

I also was unaware that Agosta had TJ in June/July (it wasn't May, as SFGRTB stated, as he was still pitching in June). I think he's almost a lock not to be added to the 40 man roster in light of that news, considering how the Giants are handling Gardeck.

 

[LHG]

Agosta is no where near a lock. Not only has his performance not dictated it, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will be out most of the year. Not trying to put you on blast or bash you or anything, but where do you get that notion? Reyes Moronta is probably the one "lock".

Also, I think Blach and Blackburn are pretty safe. Giants are pretty high on them.

Looks like his TJ surgery was closer to late June. I also found out that Logan Webb had TJ surgery around the same time (but you probably already knew that) - Agosta, Webb undergo Tommy John surgeries

 

[SFGRTB]

I mistyped Blach. I meant Black. Probably a pre-emotive auto-correct correction.

As far as Agosta, I missed that he had TJ and would be out. I was looking at his quick numbers and going off his pedigree.

When Agosta stays on the field, he seemed to be building something a couple years ago, but his career might be derailed at this point. Unless he comes back throwing 95+ and he still has his command.

 

[VASFfan]

Looks like his TJ surgery was closer to late June. I also found out that Logan Webb had TJ surgery around the same time (but you probably already knew that) - Agosta, Webb undergo Tommy John surgeries

Good grief, that photo of Webb's arm post-surgery was revolting. My stomach did a few somersaults there.

 

[LHG]

List of potential free agents this offseason: 2017 Free Agents | Cot's Baseball Contracts

Looking at this list, with the thought that the most likely positions the Giants will shop for are outfielders and relief pitchers, I came up with the best in the class:

Outfielders
Michael Saunders (.836)
Mark Trumbo (.834)
Ian Desmond (.804)
Jay Bruce (.800)
Cameron Maybin (.792)
Jose Bautista (.790)

Yoenis Cespedes would go straight to the top of this list if he exercises his opt out clause (which he most certainly will exercise).

Relief pitchers
Kenley Jansen (0.65, 1.72)
Aroldis Chapman (0.88, 1.73)
Mark Melancon (0.96, 1.71)
Boone Logan (0.91, 2.95)
Francisco Rodriguez (1.12, 2.65)
Wade Davis (1.18, 2.17)
Sergio Romo (1.15, 2.96)
Mike Dunn (1.20, 2.70)
Neftali Feliz (1.14, 3.52)
Brad Ziegler (1.38, 2.37)

 

[Kendal]

So, to recap the roster for 2017, I have:

C: Posey, Brown
IF: Belt, Panik, Crawford, Nunez, Tomlinson, Adrianza
OF: Pence, Span, Williamson, Parker, Slater
SP: Bumgarner, Cueto, Moore, Samardzija, Cain
RP: Strickland, Law, Smith, Osich, Gearrin, Kontos, (open spot)

Total payroll about $166MM

Money to add a closer. So, do we overpay for Melancon or trade for Wade?

This looks about right to me, although I don't think the Giants will put 3 young outfielders on the team. Probably take Slater off and put a Vet on (Hernandez?). I say we overpay for Melancon.