Your 2020 FF Bust Predictions

[averagejoe]

That 142 really stands out as an anomaly, don't it? Quite likely due to the utter lack of other decent targets, and not much the studliness of Waller?

ew

Not really. Consistent with the increase in talent level. Systems are one thing, but players aren't totally irrelevant. Waller is head and shoulders above those names...

I think the wild card in this is Gruden himself.
He's stubborn. And some of his decisions make no sense.
He traded Mack.
He let Amari Cooper go, who was young and productive.
He let Jared Cook bolt in free agency who was their lead TE in 2018.
Everyone figured Carr's days were numbered (and maybe they still are), yet all the Raiders did was sign Mariota?

Again, sometimes Gruden's decisions are head-scratchers.
If Gruden likes Waller, all will be fine. If not,

 

[TKOSpikes]

well if he was that good, where was he from '15-'18? I think its debatable as to wether he's truly better than Jared Cook. What's not debatable is he was quite literally the only decent receiving option for Carr most of the year. Tyrell was hobbled more often then he wasnt and even when he was good yo go, he's no scary threat, Zay Jones started 7 games..it was just awful.
Thier off season activity strongly suggests they plan on changing the passing game distribution, significantly. Maybe he still gets 100-115 targets, but he ain't getting 140+, not with the additions coming this year

TWill came out with five straight TD games to begin the season. I haven't checked box scores, maybe Waller was nowhere until October, but I don't see how rookies are gonna do that. He'll get his.

...and wasn't he hurt in previous years?

 

[jdwills126]

Keenan Allen - made a living in the area PhillipRivers was adept at hitting. Tyrod Taylor is no Phillip Rivers and Justin Herbert needs a year at least.

Stefan Diggs - I like Josh Allen but not because of his deep ball. Diggs will not have the same production with Beasley and Brown as he did with Thielen.

Aaron Jones - The Packers spent a high pick on a good AJ Dillon and I am not sure a committee will make him a RB1.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Just checked box scores. Waller was a baller out of the gates too.

All this said, just too high a price for TE...but if that was my style (it's not), and I miss the two K's.... Waller would be my pick.

 

[eaglesnut]

I think the wild card in this is Gruden himself.
He's stubborn. And some of his decisions make no sense.
He traded Mack.
He let Amari Cooper go, who was young and productive.
He let Jared Cook bolt in free agency who was their lead TE in 2018.
Everyone figured Carr's days were numbered (and maybe they still are), yet all the Raiders did was sign Mariota?

Again, sometimes Gruden's decisions are head-scratchers.
If Gruden likes Waller, all will be fine. If not,

Waller is still the number one passing game target there. Nothing they did changed that. Maybe the ratio isn't as absurd but he's number one and will have big games again.

The larger point being that he cost nothing last year to acquire and there will be another guy like him this year.

 

[TREFF]

TWill came out with five straight TD games to begin the season. I haven't checked box scores, maybe Waller was nowhere until October, but I don't see how rookies are gonna do that. He'll get his.

...and wasn't he hurt in previous years?

He had that rookie "phantom" injury where Baltimore stashed him on IR in Oct. '15. Suspended for 4 games in '16, suspended a full season in '17, active the entire '18 season.

The guy is a physical mismatch, he is good, lord knows I want him to be great, but he ain't. And he's not going to be the planned focal point of the passing game plan this year, barring yet another disaster happening to the LV WR chart.

And Tyrells great start? Averaged 4 catches a game, roughly 60 yds a game...hardly balling, most teams get that from thier #2, some from thier #3. He just so happened to score each game. Rest of the year, 2.5 catches a game, about 40yds a game, and one more score in 9 games. He was a dud all season long. In his defense, he was never supposed to be the best WR on the field, and it certainly showed.

 

[TKOSpikes]

He had that rookie "phantom" injury where Baltimore stashed him on IR in Oct. '15. Suspended for 4 games in '16, suspended a full season in '17, active the entire '18 season.

The guy is a physical mismatch, he is good, lord knows I want him to be great, but he ain't. And he's not going to be the planned focal point of the passing game plan this year, barring yet another disaster happening to the LV WR chart.

And Tyrells great start? Averaged 4 catches a game, roughly 60 yds a game...hardly balling, most teams get that from thier #2, some from thier #3. He just so happened to score each game. Rest of the year, 2.5 catches a game, about 40yds a game, and one more score in 9 games. He was a dud all season long. In his defense, he was never supposed to be the best WR on the field, and it certainly showed.

If Ruggs averages 4-60 and half a TD eery game, consider me surrendered. Until then, who did Cook have? Moss and Rice? Who did Apex Smith have? Keyshon and Jurevicious?

Also, Carr plays a factor. Just not that good. Likes his TEs. Mariota pummeled Delanie every year.

It's lining up for another big year. Maybe not 90-1100, but I bet his 3 TD goes up.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I'm more concerned of the red zone work Witten is going to steal from Waller. The rookie WRs are just one more distraction from Carr always looking Wallers direction.

Zero ppl thought they needed to add depth at TE, yet Witten was signed early in FA (or am I remembering that wrong?)

Maybe Moreau injury is worse than they are letting on, actually was watching that game and it was gross looking, so they needed to cinch TE2 spot up.

Just can't see Witten delaying his retirement again for a backup blocking role, but could be

 

[TREFF]

If Ruggs averages 4-60 and half a TD eery game, consider me surrendered. Until then, who did Cook have? Moss and Rice? Who did Apex Smith have? Keyshon and Jurevicious?

Also, Carr plays a factor. Just not that good. Likes his TEs. Mariota pummeled Delanie every year.

It's lining up for another big year. Maybe not 90-1100, but I bet his 3 TD goes up.

Cook had Cooper, for 6 whole games, and Jordy Nelson dragging his crippled ass around.
Dilger had McCardell and Key. Johnson (combined 1700+ x2) and M. Clayton/Galloway (Combined 1500+ x2)
Alec Smith had Clayton/Galloway (combined 1300x2) and Antonio Bryant/Clayton (combined 1600).
None of them elite, all of them much better than anything the Raiders had last year

I cannot see how the additions of Ruggs, Bryan, Bowden, Booker, Agholor, a healthy Ty. Williams, a sophomore Renfrow, somehow add up to another big year for the TE. Not to mention that relying on the TE for a big percentage of their offense led to a 7-9 record, and a #24 ranked scoring offense. Its pretty much right there in your face that the gameplan is changing..it has to

 

[TREFF]

I'm more concerned of the red zone work Witten is going to steal from Waller. The rookie WRs are just one more distraction from Carr always looking Wallers direction.

Zero ppl thought they needed to add depth at TE, yet Witten was signed early in FA (or am I remembering that wrong?)

Maybe Moreau injury is worse than they are letting on, actually was watching that game and it was gross looking, so they needed to cinch TE2 spot up.

Just can't see Witten delaying his retirement again for a backup blocking role, but could be

Christ, I forgot all about Witten....Carrier and his vulture work (4tds last year) will be back too, plus Moreau, and his (5 last year), maybe? Lots and lots of mouths for any one guy to get a whole lot

 

[broncosmitty]

QB: Jackson, he's gonna get hurt. Watson, same thing. I think Mayfield loses his starting job as well.

RB: CMac, nowhere to go but down. Fournette, won't be worth the headache of keeping around during tTanking. Anyone in Seattle's backfield not named Wilson.

WR: Allen, he's looked old for years. Like Dustin Pedroia it's just a waiting game.

TE: Ertz, it's been a helluva run. Gronk, feels like a gimmick.

 

[broncosmitty]

Cobb had 80+ targets in Dallas last year. I don't see Lamb topping that.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Cook had Cooper and Jordy Nelson dragging his crippled ass around.
Dilger had McCardell and Key. Johnson (combined 1700+ x2) and M. Clayton/Galloway (Combined 1500+ x2)
Alec Smith had Clayton/Galloway (combined 1300x2) and Antonio Bryant/Clayton (combined 1600).
None of them elite, all of them much better than anything the Raiders had last year

I cannot see how the additions of Ruggs, Bryan, Bowden, Booker, Agholor, a healthy Ty. Williams, a sophomore Renfrow, somehow add up to another big year for the TE. Not to mention that relying on the TE for a big percentage of their offense led to a 7-9 record, and a #24 ranked scoring offense. Its pretty much right there in your face that the gameplan is changing..it has to

Same QB, same system. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the nose. Carr and Matiota aren't exactly bombers. And I assume should Bowden see any QB snaps, it's wild cat and TE heavy...

Waller saved them from 5-11 and 31st ranked offense...he didn't plummet them to 24th. Ruggs and company isn't Cooper and company. Waller's getting at least Cook's targets, or they're nuts.
The good thing about Ruggs, is he'll challenge safties more than last year, so less attention for Waller. IMO

 

[TKOSpikes]

I'm more concerned of the red zone work Witten is going to steal from Waller. The rookie WRs are just one more distraction from Carr always looking Wallers direction.

Zero ppl thought they needed to add depth at TE, yet Witten was signed early in FA (or am I remembering that wrong?)

Maybe Moreau injury is worse than they are letting on, actually was watching that game and it was gross looking, so they needed to cinch TE2 spot up.

Just can't see Witten delaying his retirement again for a backup blocking role, but could be

Internship for a Gruden staff job. Witten will make Waller better. Certainly isn't there to take away his 3 TD. Gruden always voiced his love for Witten while on air.

 

[eaglesnut]

Cook had Cooper, for 6 whole games, and Jordy Nelson dragging his crippled ass around.
Dilger had McCardell and Key. Johnson (combined 1700+ x2) and M. Clayton/Galloway (Combined 1500+ x2)
Alec Smith had Clayton/Galloway (combined 1300x2) and Antonio Bryant/Clayton (combined 1600).
None of them elite, all of them much better than anything the Raiders had last year

I cannot see how the additions of Ruggs, Bryan, Bowden, Booker, Agholor, a healthy Ty. Williams, a sophomore Renfrow, somehow add up to another big year for the TE. Not to mention that relying on the TE for a big percentage of their offense led to a 7-9 record, and a #24 ranked scoring offense. Its pretty much right there in your face that the gameplan is changing..it has to

Same QB.

Those WRs still suck and 3 are rookies. Could be good rookies, but still rookies. Carr won't be depending on them. He's going to go to his reliable target.

And they'll again be 7-9ish and probably the 20th scoring offense, if they got better.

 

[TREFF]

Internship for a Gruden staff job. Witten will make Waller better. Certainly isn't there to take away his 3 TD. Gruden always voiced his love for Witten while on air.

No doubt...like an unnatural, stalker, obsession type love.

And he should make Waller better, hopefully teach him how to get open in ways other than hitting the seam or a TE screen.